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The 50/50 [NR] roller coaster

The ratio of tips and rumors I received for a new DSLR vs. mirrorless camera announcement on August 24 is 50/50. The main difference is that I got some details on the mirrorless camera and nothing on the DSLR front. This is why I changed  my "prediction" from two DSLR bodies to a mirrorless only announcement next week.

I already see many readers are getting upset and all I want to ask you is to wait till next week. As the last announcement showed, I do not know everything and just because I do not have any detailed specs doesn't necessary mean that my "prophecy" is correct.

The chances for a mirrorless/DSLRs announcement for next week are still 50/50 and any combination between those two is also possible. There is also a very good chance that there may be a second announcement in September.

Everything is still possible and I may change my "prognosis" again in the next few days :)

This entry was posted in Nikon 1, Nikon D4, Nikon D800 and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Trackbacks are closed, but you can post a comment.
  • Mike

    I have been following this D700 replacement rumour for quite some time as I have an interest in a full frame body. I do not own a full frame body at this point, but have been scouring the internet for information about its replacement and of course wind up spending far too much time here. Over the last year or two I have been building a full frame compatible lens collection and have not dropped the cash on the D700 for a few reasons:

    -I upgraded to a D90 from a D40 and a year after I bought it, the D7000 came out offering significantly better ISO performance. I do not want to drop 3-4x the cash on a full frame body and have it become “obsolete” (yes, I know this is subjective) within a short period of time after purchasing it. I understand you can still take great pictures with an older body, but given the amount of cash charged for a FF body, I don’t want to be buying something I know is relatively overdue for replacement with a superior product. I am not super rich and it is a huge expenditure so I’d like to get the best bang for my buck.

    -The D90 -> D7000 ISO performance boost was quite noticeable, getting to near FX performance in the crop sensor. If the ISO performance boost in the new generation of FX sensors is as great as the last jump in DX, we will be in for a real treat. This is assuming that the sensor technology in FX has advanced over the last 4 years, which it logically should unless Nikon (or whoever else is developing the sensor) have not been doing FX development in the last few years. Great low light performance without super grainy photos is key for me.

    A couple more thoughts… I would also really like a reasonably priced AF-S 50mm f/1.2 to come out alongside the new FX body. I’d really like to get into handheld star photography, or impromptu midnight street hockey action shots. Well, not really but I’d still like that bright of a lens to complement the ISO performance of the next generation sensors to give me the best possible (handheld in low light) results given today’s technology.

    I am also curious to see what the ISO performance is like in the mirrorless cameras. If it somehow manages to equal my D7000′s performance and use my existing lenses I could see myself adding one to my kit for extra telephoto reach and/or portability. If the performance isn’t on par, I won’t even consider it.

    • Mike

      I’m in the same situation. Upgraded from D50 -> D90. Loved the camera and have used it for a couple of years. Have started to build an FX stable of lenses (50mm f/1.8, 105mm f/2.8 Macro, 80-200mm f/2.8, and should be getting a 14-24 f/2.8 shortly). I was tempted by the D7000, a couple of my friends have one and it’s a legitimate upgrade to the D90. However, with the D800 (?) hopefully right around the corner I’m willing to wait to see if I will now make the jump to FX. I think the body would last at least a few years, and I would use the time to fill out the lens collection and hopefully take a ton of great shots.

      • InfraRed

        I think many of us are in the same situation. I upgraded from D70 to D7000 last year. I may sell the D7K and and get some money back or simply keep it to take advantage of the crop factor: I can’t afford to spend another $6K to $9K for a fast 300 or 400mm in addition to a new FF body. At least DX brings has some benefits :)

      • Dr Motmot

        Same here, I have a D80 and have been building up a collection of FF lenses (50mm 1.4, 24-70mm, 105mm macro) in preparation for going full frame, but I may just have to get the D7000 and hang on a little longer if no FF bodies are announced on the 24th.

    • KT

      Your logic make sense, problem is even if Nikon came out with an FX in the coming days or months, it will be the D4 or something comparable, a D700 replacement will very likely wait till next summer. Then you have to factor in the initial few months of inflated price and back-order stuff due to years of bent up demand, you could very well be waiting till this time next year to get your hands on a D700 replacement.

      • WaterFrog

        I’m beginning my switch to FF and just got today 28-300 f/3.5+5.6. I started with a D90 (since sold), D300 (am selling) and D300s (keeping). I am interested in the D700 but really like the 2 memory cards in the 300s. I keep reading this site to see any updates before I throw down on a 700. The guy at my camera store told me to wait, that he believes that an upgraded version of the 700 was right around the corner. He hasn’t steered me wrong yet. Let’s hope….

      • WoutK89

        “it will be the D4 or something comparable, a D700 replacement will very likely wait till next summer”

        Because of the D3 and D700? I assume Nikon has proving plenty that D700 has a different audience (besides being Full Frame) than the D3(s) has. So why can’t they bring them together in your believes?

        • El Aura

          What proof have we gotten from Nikon that the D3 kept selling at the same rate after the introduction of the D700?
          Nikon has only proven to us that they dared to take the risk but not whether that gamble worked out for them.

          • WoutK89

            What proof do we have? They still brought a D3s, so there is an audience for big block cameras. I think the D700s would otherwise have been the one we had seen.

    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/brokentoyshop Broken Toy Shop

      I upgraded from a D40x to the D700 last year, but I had already been shooting 35mm film and I already had a healthy collection of FF glass.
      The D700 is a great camera and unless you NEED video, there may not be much point in holding off for what could be a potentially long time.
      That prediction that you could be waiting another few seasons is probably correct and if you need FF performance, bite the bullet, you won’t regret it as much as not having the camera and missing the shots you think you could be getting.

      Personally, I am starting to need video. Nothing serious, I’m not about to buy a Red camera system, but preferably something better then the D7000.
      My work uses my images in advertising and if I have video, they’ll use that and pay for it.

      As for saying that switching to the 5D MKII is crazy, well that isn’t entirely right. I considered it and if it wasn’t for my heavy investment in Nikon glass, I may have even bought one. It really depends on what your needs are and unless you are a fan boy, your needs shouldn’t include a certain brand name.

      • Victor Hassleblood

        “(…) unless you are a fan boy, your needs shouldn’t include a certain brand name.”

        The smartest comment on NR ever.

        • http://www.davidcohendelara.com David

          “(…) unless you are a fan boy, your needs shouldn’t include a certain brand name.”

          It should if you have a few thousand $ invested in glass and flashes and other peripherals, and you don’t want to spend a week buying and getting to know new gear every time Canon leapfrogs Nikon or vice versa.

          Canon and Nikon both make good gear. Switching is hardly ever worth it. If you already own a top-level Nikon or Canon, the only switch that’s really going to make a difference is to a top quality medium format system.

          • Mock Kenwell

            I call BS. Switching is easier than it’s ever been now with eBay to sell lenses, and Canon bodies can still use Nikon glass, just not vice versa. I bought 4 5D MkIIs for my work last year. It’s too good a buy for us. We kept our Nikon glass. Is the D700 a better stills camera? Yep, sure is. But we need video. And for every guy like me who still waits for an answer from Nikon to that camera, there are five guys who won’t wait. They’ll just switch, glass and all. It’s easy.

            • Bullsnot

              Money can fix just about any problem, but most here are not made of money and can’t afford to own two complete camera systems.

          • Victor Hassleblood

            “It should if you have a few thousand $ invested (…)”

            I agree with you. This is why I decided to wait and get a D7000 for video.

            “(…) getting to know new gear every time Canon leapfrogs Nikon or vice versa.”

            Well, menu and layout of the D7000 isn’t exactly what I was used to. And leapsnails might be the better term when it comes to the ups and downs of both systems.

            “Switching is hardly ever worth it.”

            Again I agree. But the statement “needs shouldn’t include a certain brand name” does not necessarily imply switching. Did I switch from Nikon to HB? No. And I strongly consider adding yet another system (the brand which is not to be mentioned here). Inferior colors are often brought up. That is plain fanboyish. To me they are just different. Did I stick to just one type of film in the past? No. Better glass is often claimed. The 24mm TS-E beats the crap out of the PC-E. No leapfrogging here. Both companies address their ups and downs rather relaxed. Lenses even more relaxed than cameras.

            So yes, mainly I agree with you, but I still like the quoted part of Broken ToyShop’s comment for a couple of good reasons.

      • Jabs

        @Broken Toy Shop

        You posted this (a part of your post anyway):

        As for saying that switching to the 5D MKII is crazy, well that isn’t entirely right. I considered it and if it wasn’t for my heavy investment in Nikon glass, I may have even bought one. It really depends on what your needs are and unless you are a fan boy, your needs shouldn’t include a certain brand name.

        My response now:
        Actually it depends on YOUR visual acuity and the level that YOU are on as a photographer and even artist. It also depends on what field you are in and how critical a photographer you are.

        For the majority of photographers out there today, most cannot tell the differences between a well exposed D40 shot and much else, as the Presentation medium like the Internet, is the limitation.

        However, as the Presentation medium goes up from say screen to PRINT, then the differences are quite apparent.

        A lowly Nikon L22 with ‘outshoot’ many of the great 35mm film cameras BUT compared to the best of the digital bodies, then it has its’ apparent limitations. WHEN you raise the bar, then you SEE the limitations of Canon’s easily and it is WORSE, when you use it – as in trying to catch a fleeting glimpse of a subject moving really fast = NOT the province or the strength of the 5D MK2. I shoot with polarizers and as a former Fujichrome Velvia 50D Pro and 64T shooter, I clearly see the deficiencies of the Canon 5D MK2, even against the better and older 21 meg PRO Canon body – and I am not talking about mere AF – but the electronics inside is obviously WORSE than the old camera.

        HENCE, what YOU are exposed to = what type of differences you will see. Nikon is NOW is a league beyond anything Canon CURRENTLY makes and thus Canon needs to catch up soon = my perspective FROM actually looking at the files from EACH manufacturer and the differences are CLEAR to me, as is one is superior (cleaner output with less color shifts and banding) and thus YOU are the determining factor there. Digital attempts to be generic or some people think it is, BUT a camera body used by a very capable photographer makes a world of a difference in the RIGHT situation. I also have always preferred the color response and quality of a Nikon lens, but I like Canon’s lenses better than their current bodies, as I personally believe that they (Canon) got LAZY and rested on their laurels when they thought that they were so far ahead of Nikon and Nikon then passed them with the D3 series and never looked back. Canon reminds me of a Company suffering from trauma and unable to respond. On video, the Canon has a better REP (on that) than Nikon, but I prefer the files from even a D3100 over their files, as VIDEO person too and know what clean PRO video LOOKS like.

        My perspective from MY professional exposure!

    • Rick

      Still playing 24-70/2.8 on my D40! Still waiting!
      You will understand how desperately I need a D800!

    • http://dundermifflin.com michael scott

      I have similar situation as you. I upgraded from a D40 to D90 and now wanting to go full frame.

    • http://www.truphotos.com gnohz

      Actually, me too :D
      I’m starting to build my collection of FX lenses in preparation for a switch. I’ve gotten the 14-24 and the new 50 f1.8 and should be getting the 70-200 VR2 soon to start it off as a standard FX kit.

    • http://www.facebook.com/dsloanphoto Daniel

      Pretty much exactly the situation I’m in, except I went from D60 to D300s (and have had it almost 2 years), and am now chomping at the bit for the D700 replacement.

      Just don’t let it all this get in the way of going out and taking photos!

  • zz

    IMO new FF DSLRs being announced soon is very unlikely. Nikon is a relatively small company with limited resources. The development of this new EVIL camera has mostly likely consumed most of the company’s resources over the past couple of years. Developing a new class of camera from scratch is a fairly large project. It requires a new sensor, new mount, new class of lenses, , new flash, new UI, etc. Even if the company does manage to allocate a small group of engineers to work on warming over a the D700 / D4 I wouldn’t expect the limited resources to be able to come up with anything amazing.

    The above opinion combined with the fact that there are zero credible leaks on new FF DSLRs seems to strongly indicate that nothing will be released soon.

    It also wouldn’t make sense for a company to make multiple major announcements all at once. Nikon is a conservative company and they tend to move very slowly.

    • WoutK89

      “It also wouldn’t make sense for a company to make multiple major announcements all at once.”

      Because they did the D3 + D300 + a bunch of lenses…, that’s why it IS possible

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        but they did not announce Coolpix cameras on that day and they will next week

        • WoutK89

          I assume Nikon didn’t want to do 2 days for what you can do in 1 go? I never understood why to do it on a separate day. Coolpixes have never overshadowed the DSLR launches. Different camera different audience. Nothing is impossible ;-)

          • Period

            Certainly Coolpix overshadowed no DSLR in the market – but maybe they would be in the press cause they are targeting the masses like the coolpix and the like do.

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      A billion dollars in profits a year is a relatively small company?

      • Period

        Until short after WW II Germany was one of the major players –if not the major player– in the camera market. Today only Leica is still alive, but just in a niche. The reasons have been ignorance and wrong market estimations.
        Imho the run after the masses including sacrificing too much R&D resources into it could turn out as a big mistake in the long run. The P&S buyers do have quite a different buying behavior. They don’t own much lenses or accessories tying them to a brand and they rather go for what is In or have the most MP for the buck. No wonder for their family documentation-shots or their prove photos (me in front of) the absolute image quality is not deciding the war on the market front. But for the maker it is a different deal: huge competition even from the cell phone side, often uninformed and thus influenceable end-customers and wholesale chains that won’t leave the maker much meat on a deal.
        My impression from the Photokina last year was that Nikon’s only highlight was the D7000. For the rest even Fuji gained more attention for their X100.
        Back in the film times, as soon as someone had a good body it was basically just about completing the lenses. This has changed dramatically. With the exposure made and processed on plain electronically components this has become the field, where the music plays.
        Thus I’d love to see that Nikon would put their primary focus on the DSLRs, the field where their core competencies are instead of presenting Coolpixes with unique but useless projectors and the like.
        If the “great” announcement on the 24th comprises no DSLRs –and that’s what it looks like– it’s not great at all. And as one can read out of this blog, many DSLR-Nikonians will be deeply disappointed – not an impressive strategy!

        • Jabs

          @Period

          Nice thought provoking post!

          We basically are going through transitions and generations to new eras.

          1. Mechanical-Industrial Era = ‘Black Forest’ mechanical precision with the look and feel of that Era. Leica and the various German/Swiss brands thrived and led the way.

          2. Electro-Mechanical Era = Nikon and the Japanese took over with the Nikon S series and then the F series buried them with a new concept.

          3. Electronic-Digital Era = everyone trying to one-up each other as Manufacturing went to Computer Assisted Development and Manufacturing, thus leveling the field or even producing too many similar designs, as computers DO NOT think.

          The old players – Leica, Canon and Nikon have reinvented themselves but Leica badly stumbled as perhaps stuck in the past. Leica teamed with the Japanese and then we have basically Micro 4/3rds and such.

          We are in a newer Era of the i-Nonsense or fashion OVER substance, so everyone has been caught off-guard by Apple’s success.

          NOW, how will everyone react or will everything be DUMBED down just to make a buck and then we have ill-informed or worse, illiterate consumers where the CAMERA or gear makes all or the majority of the decisions and thus photography dies as an art form and we have computers now taking the shots and humans just viewers of ‘pre-decided’ or programmed in greatness as in NO fail shots.

          We are now at a point of – WHO is better, the computer or the human mind as in artistic vision = the NEW frontier.

          Ever seen the original RoboCop, then you might get it.

  • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

    #ImReadyForD4Delivery

  • http://www.facebook.com/lifestorey Johan Fanggara

    However, after all this hype about ‘major announcements date’, invitation to nikon events in other countries as well, employees banned from taking long breaks — do we seriously believe ALL that just to announce pocket mirrorless system? I am not that convinced. :(

    • Reck Konwell

      Well if zz is right and that the EVIL monopolized a lot of resources at Nikon, it could be a very important thing for them and for very large market not represented here at NR. i.e. the world but 17000 people waiting for the D700 replacement.

  • John

    So if we are predicting a mirrorless camera annoucement now, then how come the retailers have no more D700, D3, D300s in stock?

    • broxibear

      Hi John,
      I don’t know where you are but here in the UK I’ve noticed a few retailers are getting both the D700 and D3s back in stock…it’s possible it’s stock from elsewhere in Europe to fill backorders, I don’t know ?

      • AnoNemo

        Most likely not from other countries broxibear. The UK is a different beast…the reason is the electric plug! They would have to re-pack all of them.

        • broxibear

          Hi AnoNemo,
          Nikon Europe BV covers the whole of Europe, they and they alone supply the retailers in Europe so plugs, manuals etc is not an issue.
          Any Nikon stock in Europe that doesn’t go through Nikon Europe BV is grey market.
          Just in the past few weeks warehouseexpress and calumet, who are Nikon Professional dealers, have had D3s and D700 stock arrive…they had no stock for over 3 months.

    • BornOptimist

      In Norway they are in stock. D700 was missing for some time, but now it’s possible to find them again. D3s and D300s are also in stock.

  • zz

    A lot of the hype has been created within the users here at NR all by themselves. There tends to be a positive feedback look here where some morsel of info gets tossed out and people drive up they hype. The PR that Nikon seems to be building around this EVIL camera seems pretty consistent with how a company’s PR firm would bring a new class of camera into the public eye. Announcing a new class of camera along with new DSLRs will dilute the impact of the product announcement for the EVIL camera. No self respecting PR firm would choose to create such a diluted message.

  • broxibear

    Peter runs a great site, give him a break…he’s being honest with you by informing you what’s going on.
    Yes some of us have contacts in the industry, some more than others, but that doesn’t mean information flows like a tap…often information is conflicting from good sources.
    Ever since the tsunami Nikon have tightened up their information leaks, the AFS 50mm fiasco was a mistake, infact I’m pretty sure it was a typo concerning dates that caused that issue.
    If you’re going to get worked up about something then make it something more important than the next Nikon dslr. If you can’t find the right camera for you at this point in time then it’s not Nikon’s fault, it’s your fault…you’ve made wrong decisions in your camera buying, whether it’s brand, model or time of purchase.
    I’m sure many of you will disagree and will post those thoughts, don’t get too abusive as Peter will just delete them lol.

    • Bondi Beach

      I am not sure that it is reasonable to say that if someone can’t find the right camera then it is their fault. It is true that since the beginning of photography a camera has existed which will take pictures and enable self-expression. People want to use the camera for self expression, yet people also want to get value for money – that is the point made in the original post. By buying a camera which -will- be made obsolete by the new model, it is simply throwing away good money when a trade up occurs down the track. Nobody wants to feel like they have just blown $1,000. This is exactly the same situation as people buying cars – one model year is very often almost identical to the previous model year, but when it comes to selling the newer car gets a better return.

      • http://www.halcyonhabit.com Halcyon Habit

        +1

      • broxibear

        Hi Bondi Beach,
        This “buying a camera which -will- be made obsolete by the new model” is just not true.
        The reason camera manufacturers pay advertising and marketing companies millions is to make you believe that. Whatever type of photography you do there is a camera available right now that will do it.
        There’s always going to be a new model round the corner…if you get caught up in that merry go round it’ll drive you mad.

        • RumpelHund

          I AM NOT FUCKING MAD! I JUST WANT A D/== REPLACEMENT.

          [spittle flying around, head shaking madly]

          D700 REPLACENT I MEAN

          Seriously: you’re absolutely right and I love to see my D700 being top notch still today, which is a value to slower cycles in itself: cameras do no loger get obsolete that fast (at Nikon ;-).

          But still, could imagine quite some enhancements even on my beloved D700 (AF-speed, video).

        • Period

          @broxibear
          That’s overly simplistic!
          Marketing departments may make you believe, what you need. But the surely have no influence about what you get for your last generation gear. Sure is only one thing: you’ll loose money.
          Second, 4 years after the D3x was introduced, the wish to have a comparable sensor and processing engine in a D700 body size and weight not too much over the price of a D700 is reasonable – but yet not available. (There is no alternative!!!) Thus everyone who’s up to that kind of configuration is trying to figure out, when (if) it will come, to make a good decision.

          • broxibear

            Hi Period,
            You say there is no alternative but I have to disagree. There’s always an alternative…the question is are people willing to pay for that alternative.
            If you want the flagship product you have to be prepared to pay the flagship price.
            Either you make your choices on the equipment that’s available or you wait…you can’t wait and then complain about the waiting.
            I’m a photographer, I’d love to have enough money to buy all the equipment I want but I can’t…I have a budget and make the best choices I can.
            All equipment depreciates in value and you can’t help that…but what you can do is get the most use from that equipment. I recently sold my 85mm f1.8 AFD, I bought it over 10 years ago, after 10 years of good use with my film cameras and digital I sold it for the same price as I bought it for new…the money went towards another lens.
            You need to do what’s right for you…if that means waiting and wishing for a new camera then so be it.

            • Period

              Well, for some particular lenses this may be right as your experience proves. On the other hand, some time ago my experience was, that a dealer offered such a hilarious small money for my D80 (being in a mint condition) thought I was going to upgrade on a D300s, that I had to tell him that I rather keep it in my car’s glovebox as back up.
              I think the point here is watching a company spending much effort on stuff being less interesting for those who are into serious photography while the company seemingly believes, that their DSLR buyers still can wait as they have invested in the system already and thus might not buy elsewhere. Thus it is understandable that these customers get a bit pushy, isn’t it?
              Even taking the DSLR buyers of the D300s and up, which percentage of them do you think can put out the money for a D3x in return for a few orders?
              In times where almost every maid is jetting the globe and due to the highly automated P&S sooner or later get a shot or two by chance for which she is already satisfied to see the name printed, lots of potential customers come along with the imagination to get a good shot for ten bucks max. And in the stock-markets they do…
              Well, you are a photographer. So what motivates you? As far as I’m concerned to make passport photos or mass production do not belong to my motivators – and the more artistic one goes the unfavorable the effort-pay ratio goes in the most of the cases.

          • Jabs

            @Period

            My take on the D3X to D700X was that Nikon made a D3X as a strategic move to knock out Canon’s FF 21 meg line and they were successful as in bringing a much better body out with visible superior files and not mere bragging rights over megapixels.

            The D3X has custom made (probably by Nikon themselves) chips and it is inherently expensive due to being custom chips and perhaps made in a smaller quantity geared towards a specialized camera and category, so why make more and then now have a D700X that costs $6000.00 and a D3 that costs less. You then confuse your buyers and dilute BOTH the D3X and D3 series = being an idiot.

            The problem is that USERS also expected a cheap version of the D3X and that was impossible with the available TECH of the D3X (16bit).

            I don’t expect a D700X, as Nikon actually made TWO versions of the D3 (one like an F4 and the other like an F3) and named one of them a D700, and then they made a third version called the D3X based upon the D3 body style. It is as though Nikon was going back to the days of the F4 and F3 series and offering varieties BUT they made a cheaper version (D700) and gave it a new name instead of it being part of the D3 series and diluting the value of that series.

            I now expect more differentiation between a D700 series and the D3 series, hence we had the D3s with a fantastic sensor made by Nikon, so maybe the D700 series will contain a Sony sensor in its’ replacement series (D800 or such) and the D3s series replacement will now get the custom sensors and electronics innards of the Nikon designed sensors like the D3s and D3X = moving them upscale while the D700 moves into Canon 5D MK2 territory, as in lower price high megapixel body with video.

            My perspectives!

      • http://escarti.blogspot.com Edu

        If you dont want to have the feeling that your camera is being made obsolete by a newer one buy an analog one. I have been waiting for the D800(?) because I wante a full frame with video, but then I bought a Hasselblad from the 60s and I dont think Im buying the D800 anymore.

        If you prefer digital be prepared for 3-4 year obsolecens cycles, this is the way the market works nowadays and I find it anoying!

  • upset

    u got that right about being upset. am no longer that eager to wait for 24th…so that id be less upset if the mirrorless turns up instead of the long awaited d700 replacement :(

  • ericnl

    I keep reading that Nikon cannot release both the D4 and the D800 at the same time, because one would cannibalise the sales of the other. but isn’t the money just going into the same pockets?
    it’s not like releasing the two together will drive people to spend their money at another company, in fact: holding back the release of one of the two is more likely to have people spend it elsewhere (cough*switchers*cough).

    even though the D4 will be almost twice the price of the D800, this is not just to have a more expensive camera to sell, or to make more profit, it probably costs almost twice as much to make the D4. the reason to have both the D4 and the D800 out is to have them compete with the other brand(s).

    I guess there is only a handful of people who are torn between the D800 and the D4. most people already have their mind made up about what camera they will buy. if you have your mind set on the D4, you’re not suddenly going to buy the D800 instead because it was released at the same time, and even if you do, it is not going to cost Nikon money.

    • Ke

      I guess 99% of people would just buy the cheaper D700 replacement, Nikon may need people to buy the more expensive D3 replacement too.

  • humenbean

    Some odd comments so far. NIKON a small company? Not the last time I checked. They have dropped multiple camera bodies and multiple lenses within months.

    As for developing the evil, the hotshoe is almost guarenteed to take sb flashes and all the regular lenses. They might throw in a few pancakes to accompany the release, but those are nothing new on the development board. As for a sensor they could have bought another from Sony.

    The idea that they would put their entire team on a point and shoot that takes big lenses and nothing else is absurd.

    My belief is that the full frame and mirrorless are coming out within a short period of time from each other because they don’t really compete. Not the same day or week, but close. Too many people are holding back on buying d700s and d3s knowing its time for an upgrade. and I would hope they wouldn’t drag their entire a list of photographers in for a mirrorless camera… Unless this thing has insane specs. We are talking d700 noise, 16 mp sensor, 6 fps, and built out of titanium… If so great, but I’m just trying to be realistic. Why 50/50, let’s say 100/100 within a short time.

  • Dave

    I am going to be really disappointed if there is not a D700 replacement. So disappointed I am going to go out and buy a Canon 5D MkII.

    • Twoomy

      But Canon users are so disappointed that the 5d MkII replacement isn’t out, they’re buying D700′s! :)

      • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

        That makes more sense, because most of those people were looking for a reason to switch to Nikon anyway. They’ve realized that even the soon-to-be replaced D700 is superior to the 5DII, not to mention Nikon’s glass being superior as well.

        For those that are going the other way, that makes NO sense.

        • Bondi Beach

          The Nikon glass does not appear to be universally superior. The Canon f/1.2 lenses have no equivalent in the Nikon range. The Canon T/S lenses have superior glass, mechanism, and range. There exist great Canon f/4 zooms. Canon have a superior VR system (in the macro range, at least). Nikon lenses seem to be about 15% more expensive on average (in Australia).

          • sade

            nikon also has f/4 zooms. I know at least 3 such lenses. For T/S lenses, what is your source?
            Regarding the IS system of macro lenses of canon, I believe it is more of the marketing strategies rather than the useful technology. In fact, even the auto focus for macro lenses is of less importance, compared to other lenses.

            • Benjo

              One could easily argue that Canon’s T/S lenses are generally superior to Nikon’s. Foremost, they have the superb 17mm. Nikon has nothing to match it. I’ve rented entire Canon rigs just for tight, tall interior jobs where it was just fantastic.

              Second, their 24mm has zero distortion, eliminating the need to fool around with its correction (correcting shifted images cannot be automated like normal lenses) and additionally, like the 17, has the ability to change orientation of shift/tilt functions. Also, if you need a cheaper alternative, the first version of the Canon 24mm T/S can be had for under $1kUS, whereas Nikon’s only cheaper version is their ancient 28mm model which lacks tilt, requires manual stopdown, and has notable distortion and CA.

              The 45mm models are both quite good, Canon’s is not an “L”, but I didn’t find any weaknesses. Nikon’s 85 and Canon’s 90 are obviously for the macro crowd and not the architecture folks, but they’re also pretty similarly matched, though I haven’t touched them in years.

              Nikon’s 24mm PC-E is great, I use it very often, but Nikon’s line is outclassed by Canon’s.

          • http://www.flickr.com/photos/subhrashis busynbored

            And the Canon 100 400 L IS ???
            There is no comparable lens in a similar segment from Nikon… I know many bird/wildlife photographers choose Canon over Nikon for this reason, at least here in India.

            And I am not comparing the 80-400 VR primarily for the AF issue… many 100-400s are also used on Canon entry bodies, but 80-400 VR would not work on the entry Nikons.

          • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

            @Bondi Beach,
            The reality is both companies have a similar line-up of products. Some better from one particular vendor, some better from the other. Canon has a bad habbit of releasing some products that are eye catching on paper, like the f/1.2 glass, but why bother if you have to stop ‘em down to get the quality you desire. As for the Canon TS lenses, they have products that rock, or even products that Nikon hasn’t made yet, but not all of their TS lenses are superior to the Nikon lineup. Yep, Nikon is definitely more expensive, that seems to be a global phenomenon. I have never read anything about IS on macro being superior in one platform vs another, as much/most macro is done from a set of legs with IS/VR off.

          • Ke

            Nikon may not have the 1.2 lenses, but it does have *much* less noise at high ISO compared to Canon – so either way you could shoot in the same light.

        • http://www.fart-pirate.com harmonica

          Canon’s telephoto lenses are way better than Nikon’s telephoto lenes.

          • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

            That may have been a true statement in the early 90′s but doesn’t hold true today. Initially Nikon dragged their ass on VR, something Canon has been doing for a long time, not to mention the autofocus motors from Nikon were poky. Nikon paid dearly for their negligence as many pro sports photographers jumped to Canon during those years. Today, Nikon has definitely made leaps and bounds on their telephoto lenses, and I would wager they are on par with Canon. When my 400mm f/2.8 arrives next week, I will let you know how it compares to my friend’s Canon 500mm f/4.

            • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

              With all due respect, Nikon was the first to patent VR technology.

            • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

              Yes, you are right, Nikon has a patent on the name VR, but the technology was first implemented by Canon.

    • http://pitchmediagallery.com SMC

      A new camera that you want doesn’t come out, so you buy a soon to be replaced model that you didn’t really want to begin with from a competitor, making a new lens inventory mandatory, then probably bolt back to the one you wanted to start with when it actually comes out? Makes sense to me!

    • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

      You people talking about switching to an inferior 5DII(which is going to refreshed soon) because Nikon might not release the D700 replacement in YOUR time-frame, need to get your heads checked. This makes zero logical sense, not to mention poor fiscal sense.

      • Dave

        Problem is that you cannot get a D700! No one has them and no one knows when you they are going to get them. The D700 is a great camera but is useless if you cannot get it.

        • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

          @Dave,
          Unless you really need FX, I would take a look at the D7000. That body rocks, and is nearly on par with the D700.

          • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

            Agreed. The D7K is a truly amazing body. Sometimes it’s hard to believe it’s a DX body. We own two of them and love them dearly. The DR(especially at high-iso) and high-iso noise handling are unbelievable and give me hope for a high resolution FX sensor(18-24mp in the D4) that will meet or exceed the D3s in Signal-to-noise ratio and Dynamic Range. It seems totally plausible with today’s tech, seeing what they did with theD7K sensor with it’s pixel pitch.

            • Dave

              I almost bought the d7000, but did not like the “feel” of it. I know that is a stupid reason, but it was just not comfortable for me to hold it. Maybe they will do a D300 upgrade (d7000 guts in a D300s body). I would buy that if I can not find a D700.

  • SGN
  • http://www.impeng.com Chris Russo

    Peter, you poor guy. lol You’re getting all the angst from all us dying for the new FF bodies. You know we love ya. :)

    • Bondi Beach

      +1

    • Christian

      And yet, in a not too distance past, Nikon didnt have a FF camera and most people with Nikon camera though it was better this way :)

  • Allen S.

    I don’t think anyone’s directing any anger at you, just the situation. It’s like when you’re a kid and your dad jokes that he didn’t get you anything for Christmas. Not that it’s a common feeling for most of us, but when you do have that money literally BURNING a hole in your pocket, emotions get high.

  • KT

    when people talk about one camera cannibalizing the sales of another model from the same manufacturer, they usually have the example of the Canon 5D mark II cannibalizing the sales of the 1Ds mark III since both had the same sensor and the 5D had video capability not present in the 1Ds, all for 1/3 of the price. That’s probably why you never saw a Nikon D700X with a 24 MP sensor from the D3X, no one will pay $8K for a D3X when you could be having the same sensor and AF module for a 1/3 of the price. The profit margin on a D3X is substantially higher than anything Nikon could hope to achieve with the D700x so it ends up being a net loss for the company, unless they manage to sell a 1000 D700X for every D3x they used to sell.

    • Period

      In fact, they would sell 1000 D700x for every D3x cause that would be THE camera!!!

  • Dandydon

    I still say we start our own campaign to call this pointless, uhhh, I mean, mirrorless camera what it is, a Point & Shoot with interchangeable lenses. Why would this be bills as groundbreaking or innovative or any such thing. I guess it’s had a few too many teleconverters put on it and I can’t seem to focus anymore! It’s been so blown out of porportion that it’s at a f22 right now. Please, someone, if you can, help me see what I’m missing. Does anyone see a time in the next 5 years when pro will walk around with the so called “mirrorless” camera?
    OMG, someone will use this quote in 5 years.
    Don

  • Dandydon

    Ok, I’m going to continue this rant. If ML was all that and a bag of chips, why isn’t the new D4 mirrorless. Uhhhhh, could it be? Then, I might see mirrorless as the new methodology of camera development. Why couldn’t a D4 be mirrorless. Too much processing required? Maybe it calls for a Quad-core processing unit. Maybe a big box to hand from your shoulder like the original digital cameras. Anyone remember those?
    The only reason for the mirror is the viewfinder, right? Seems so pointless.
    I’m thinking D4 and mirrorless are one and the same. You hear it here first.

    Don

    • Anonymous

      +1

  • Dandydon

    What if the term D-SLR no longer applies? The D4, the first DML in the world. Now, that’s a big announcement!

  • http://www.facebook.com/lifestorey Johan Fanggara

    IF … no D4/D800 coming out next week, I’m cashing in for D3S :( not so willingly ..

  • Mark

    Hello, Admin,

    You are not a crystal ball or a seer. If, in fact, you were a witch, we’d have burnt you long ago. So proof positive that you, like the lot of us, are mere mortal.

    Congratulations.

    When you change your views, you do so with reason. Changing your view to mirrorless is reasonable based on the explanation you present. I respect that view.

    I am unimpressed with the views of the baying crowd who so want a D800 or D900 or D4 (as do I). Fine. They hope. They wish. They pine. Time will provide them with an answer to their wishes.

    But, their pines, hopes or wishes should not form the basis for their response to your more objective conjectures. What they need to provide is pure simple fact rather than uninformed argument. Were I a judge, I’d uphold your view on the basis the crowd have not presented evidence to knock down your case.

    So, either I am wrong and you are immortal, or I am correct and you are human. We can’t let the crown decide. So, we’ll let Nikon decide. The test of time, alas, is always right. (I guess that means if it is mirrorless, you need to present yourself to the stake). ;|)

    So, to the Baying Crowd, a quote: “Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble. Bring forth our Desired Kin. Bring forth our D(fill in the blanks)” (And for all you Canadians, you may stand down – the “Double Double” is not a reference to Tim Horton’s coffee, alas. )

    Regards,

    Mark

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I guess I kind of feel the pressure. In the past 3 days I had 150,000 unique visitors to this site… have you ever given your opinion in front of 150k people? Now you know why I feel this way :)

      • Mark

        Wow, Admin, you are famous, as we all thought!

        And perhaps that number of visitors ought to say something about your good offices and the respect your readers have for Nikon and their work force.

        Nikon and their workers and their families have gone through a lot these past few months and I can only hope that someone at Nikon Japan reads your website and reports to its workers how much the world values their efforts and grieves their losses.

        Judging by the number of unique hits to your site, your efforts have helped channel those views and you have made the world a better place.

        So, long live the pressure!

        Many kind regards,

        Mark

        • Ole

          Dear Mark,

          So nice to read your post – we should not forget the Japanese families whose lives have been changed so dramatically – I sure was glad to be reminded about that.

          BR, Ole

      • Just A Thought

        “I guess I kind of feel the pressure”

        You ain’t seen nothing yet. Wait for the first two days of next week. Hope your provider’s server can handle the load from the growing (soon to be flood) number of visitors. Time to use your Google Analytics reports to justify higher advertising rates on your site. If you can keep your numbers up, the offers to buy your site should start rolling in next year Congrats on your growing success…well deserved IMHO

        • http://www.truphotos.com gnohz

          Just sell NR for a few million dollars and retire! :D

          • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

            Few millions? Find me such a buyer and I will give 10% commission :)

            • http://www.truphotos.com gnohz

              We do not want Admin to retire! :D :D

          • Jabs

            Yeah – retire and sip Pina Coladas and lose your mind in the Tropics – lol

            Yeah and sell this web site to the Amazon conglomerate or even Google/Microsoft and then we have an Android attack here or we have to register and get censored or you get ‘barkers’ here trying to drum up controversy to artificially drive traffic to the we site and then we all LEAVE in disgust – no thanks, as be careful of what you wish for, as you might really get it and then it kills YA’ – lol

            Leave well enough alone – if it ain’t broken – then WHAT?

  • Ric

    NX3 annoucement will be the bombshell dropped on the 24th!

  • David

    IF you think about it, All they have to do is to put the 24MP sensor they already have in D3X in a D700 body, improve high ISO (which I am sure is easy due to developments in that area in the last 2-3 years), and add video, and sell it for under $3K. They have all the ingredients. How hard is it to do? You have the sensor already (D3X) you have the body already (D700), to add video is easy. It is a no-brainer and easy to do. It should be a piece of cake for Nikon. Any other bells and whistles would be a bonus.

    • sade

      What!!! They keep the existing 24 mp sensor of D3x and then they improve the iso performance? Do you mean that they improve de-noising software? This is ridiculous my friend. Sensor itself must perform better in high ISO.
      Using the sensor of D3x in the body of D700 would create a D700x and is a huge disappointment.
      In d7k, Nikon used a sensor with higher resolution than any other DX sensor and yet better than any other DX sensor, noise-wise. I hope the same story goes with D700 replacement.

    • Dan

      Exactly! Anyone who was going to buy the D3X already has. The d700x would engage a brand new market, and just like you said, the tech is already there. Just need to bundle it all up, slap an x on it and it would sell like hotcakes, even though the bse tech is 2 years old!

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

        I seem to remember that two FX bodies were going to be introduced; at least that was a rumor at one point in time. So if we were to see two FX bodies, I don’t see a D4 and D800 being released simultaneously. I agree with many here that D800 sales would canabalize D4 sales if released simultaneously, but only Nikon could answer that question accurately. So let us go back in Nikon’s history of DSLRs… D1 > D1H > D1X > D2H > D2X > D2Hs > D2Xs > D3 > D3X > D3s >> What’s next, the D4 obviously. So that leaves the other question to be answered. If not a D800, then what? I can easily imagine a D700 “X” or “s” or possibly D700Xs being released with the all new D4. The D4 would be a significant change bringing numerous improvements, where as the D700(??) would bring video, a higher pixel count (say 18MP) and fantastic ISO. This would permit Nikon to satisfy the DX to FX convertees, the D700 upgradees, the Canon convertees, and the PRO crowd that is willing to spend $6K+ for the new D4. I don’t see a D700 replacement coming in at a pixel count over 24MP, Nikon is already getting dangerously close to having their DSLRs out resolve their current lineup of glass, as evidenced by the release of the D3X. Only time will tell us all the truths we think we know or have began to believe, only 5 days and counting.

  • Dandydon

    I’m sure all of you, as I have, have reached the end of your creativity and technique. You have done all you can do with your current camera and without an upgrede, you are at the end of all meanful art and/or journalism. There is nothing more to learn. There is nothing more to improve upon. Not another Senior Portrait to be taken. No more landscapes worthly of a lowly D700 or D3x. It’s all over. Someone turn out the lights! After all, who needs lights if you can’t take another photograph.

    Hasn’t the capitalism control won when he has convencienced us all that if I just had that one other lens, or that new camera body upgrade, it would make all the difference in our work.

    I’m sure there are a few of us who would be able to play on the PGA, if you must had a new and better set of clubs.

    Keep chasing your elusive dreams, there’s nothing better for the economy.

    Don

    • JonMcG

      This is a lame statement, I’m sorry…

      How about I’m a D90 owner who is a photographer and beleives that a FF camera is going to give me more freedom to enjoy my art. But I also like to shoot some video, and I also would like a camera that had a couple of card slots for backup? That FF camera doesn’t exist in Nikon’s lineup and it would just happen to be that Nikon is due out with a new model that might very well have these features I consider important. Especially considering it’s a $3K+ purchase.

      With that said, wanting the “next best thing” just happens to make a lot of artistic and creative sense. Not because I’m a ‘collector of gear’ but because I might buy a body only once every 3-4 years and it would be silly to buy something that is about to be replaced.

      • Chris P

        Quote “How about I’m a D90 owner who is a photographer and beleives that a FF camera is going to give me more freedom to enjoy my art. But I also like to shoot some video, and I also would like a camera that had a couple of card slots for backup? That FF camera doesn’t exist in Nikon’s lineup ”

        Yes it does, it’s called a D3s.

      • broxibear

        Hi JonMcG,
        If you’re buying a new camera once every 3-4 years as you say then don’t buy when a new camera is announced. If you hold back 10 – 14 months you’ll find yourself at a better cycle stage…so when a new body is due you won’t be waiting, you’ll still have 10 – 14 months of use in hand.
        You’ll also get your body cheaper, look at the price of the d7000 today compared to the price in January.

  • Dandydon

    Oh, forget it. We are all a bunch of geeks!

    • Ric

      ya darn toot’n

  • Dandydon

    Ask yourself this question, “Am I a photographer or just a collector of photgraphic gear?”

    • Dr Motmot

      Nice. I definitely spend more time researching new gear, interpreting mtf graphs, reading reviews and trawling through Nikon Rumours than actually getting out and taking photos! I have lenses to cover every focal range but I still want more!

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

        +2
        You can never have enough! And once you get it all, it isn’t new any more, and there is something better out there waiting to be had. Arghhhhh….
        I sold my D3 in hopes of getting a D4, but then a natural disaster occured, so then I raced out and bought a D700 to fill the gap, today there is hope again that next week will bring me a D4, which I can’t afford to buy anymore as I pulled the trigger on a 400mm f/2.8 VR….arghhhhhh. So by the time I have saved up for the D4, maybe by next summer, the new D800 will soon be released, and then I am in the same conundrum today….arghhhhh. My only condolence is knowing new glass is in the mail, so I will at least have a fix for the next couple of months. :-)

        • Dr Motmot

          My uncle has the 400mm f2.8 but won’t lend it to me : (
          I am going to order the 300mm f2.8 VR before the end of the year.

          • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

            I considered the 300mm f/2.8 VR as well, but I really wanted the reach and acuity of the 400, and so when it went used for 15% less, I jumped on it. I am sorry to hear about your Uncle, but I suspect I would be just as hording as he. Once you get your 300mm, maybe you can convince him to swap for a week, so that you both get to play with something new!

  • Joe Jaro

    Gosh, so happy with my D700. No need for me to get upset :)

    • The invisible man

      D700 is fine as long you have a 14″ computer screen !
      :)

  • Tom Rockwell

    I was seriously thinking about selling my D700 for $1500, but after Nikon announces its replacement, I think I’ll be lucky to get $1000 for it!

    • http://www.josephsands.com jastereo

      And that’s just when I’m looking to buy one. ;) Then maybe wait a year or so and pick up a D800 to go with it.

  • NIKONLESS

    33.3% Mirrorless
    33.3% D4
    33.3% D800
    ———————- +
    100% New!

    • Einstein

      99.9% new

      • NIKONLESS

        0.1% for adjusment :)

  • http://www.dungbeetle.com.au/ Scurvyhesh

    please come out with the D800. I don’t want to buy one. I just want the price of the used d700s to drop

    • Bip

      Please come out with the D4. I don’t want to buy one. I just want the price of the D3S to drop.

      • http://www.davidcohendelara.com David

        Please come out with the D4x. I want to buy one.

        (if it has a 3:4 sensor and more dynamic range)

  • getanalogue

    no cannibalization if D 4 and D 800 would be announced at the same time: Pro’s would buy both, and Enthusiasts would buy either of them, provided they present a quantum leap in IQ.
    Mirrorless & Nikonos = Amateurs
    Don’t care about announcements next week, am very happy with D7000 (fantastic) and my Contax 645.

  • http://www.malphotography.net Michael Laing

    Personally I would find it a bit of a disaster if the D800 isn’t announce. I have been waiting for a long time for the announcement like a lot of photographers. One of the important things for me is video. I actually have a degree in video production and have worked as a professional cameraman and director. I have been waiting for Nikon to come out with a decent unit that does video and photography. I don’t want to go over to Canon but I am losing money over brand loyalty. I find the whole Nikon not updating the D700 completely baffling, it is the oldest camera in the Nikon line up and people are buying the Canon 5Dmk2 or 7D just because of the video ability. If Nikon don’t release the camera soon, I am going to have to rethink what I am doing cause I can’t keep standing still on kicking my heels whilst Nikon mess around.

    • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

      A Nikon body exists that meets your needs. It’s called the D7000 and it produces amazing video, not to mention the best APS-C still photography(DR, SNR….etc) on the market today. The D7K’s video looks better than the Canon offerings with the slight exception to moire, which all the DSLR bodies handle badly. Have a look at the Zacuto shootout. The D7K is worth a look and it’s a $1200 body.

  • http://atmikesphotography.blogspot.com/ Atmikes

    Announcement on the 24th will be for D4 and D400, the D800 will only be announced first quarter 2012, i have no information about the Mirorrless body to share

    • David

      Atmikes, is it your guess, or you have sources that are telling you that info? I am not looking for D400 actually, and D4 I am priced out. If that’s the case, I might be forced to repurchase D700 yet again… or even go 5DM2 route….

      • http://atmikesphotography.blogspot.com/ Atmikes

        It has been confirmed to me and i have good faith in my source, but no info on the specs sorry

        • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

          Let’s hope you’re right. My money is on the D4, as this will be my next body. I would rather see the D4 and D800 announced together, but as long as the D4 is on this announcement, I’ll be happy. I just can’t wait to see what Nikon has been working on the last few years.

    • nikonlover

      That would be consistent with Nikon’s track record of not announcing more than one FF body at a time. I hope you’re right, can’t wait to see the D4 and D400 be announced!

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/drscsi Dr SCSI

        There is one thing that I don’t think anyone has thought of yet…

        Nikon could release two FF cameras,
        the D4,
        and the D400!

        Nobody would suspect that, now would they! Bring it in at a pricepoint around $2200 to $2500. This would allow Nikon to have 3 top end FF cameras, the D400 ($2349 MSRP), the D700?? ($3499 MSRP), the D4 ($5799 MSRP).

        Who knows…nobody knows….

  • henry

    Good thing I didn’t sell my D700.

  • http://richardcromptonphotography.com RichM0nster

    Hey Nikon Rumours dudes, I don’t care if you get it wrong, I don’t care if you get it right, I just love what you are doing and love all the banter. Yes I’d love to replace my D700 with something of an upgrade, but the expectation and speculation is fun too. Having a D700 or D3 replacement probably won’t help me to take better pictures than I currently do, but it may just give me that inner glow when I pick it up to use it. Simple pleasures!

  • http://www.fart-pirate.com harmonica

    Canon’s telephoto lenses are way better than Nikon’s telephoto lenes in every possible way.

  • TheThing

    I’m calling for solidarity. If they don’t release a new FF dslr tell all your friends not to buy that shabby mirrorless. Make them go bust with that stupid new camera to show how angry we are. I want to downgrade from large format and nothing less than 22MP ff in a small body will suit me.

  • DarkNikon

    I bet my wife only camera will be there 24 August.

    • DarkNikon

      i mean mirrorless cameras of course.no new full frame camera.

    • nobody

      Can you provide a photo of your wife ? I might then consider the bet :)

      • NikonD80Still

        you almost lost on the bet. It’s good you did not bet on me :)

        told you and all here that you will be utterly disappointed hehehhee.

  • Muse

    I bought the D700 a couple of weeks ago for RM6200, that’s about GBP1260. I figured I might as well take the plunge since the D800 will surely cost more than the current D700 price.

  • The invisible man

    5 days left !
    The D900 announcement remind me my green card, at first they said it would take only 3 months and I got my green card 4 years later !
    On top of that they put the wrong date for my birthday !

  • The invisible man
    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      all of those prototypes have been covered here on [NR]

  • Joe

    It’s still 50/50 even there’s no Coolpix announcement this week?

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      From what I’ve been able to gather, supply chain issues were more of a problem for small, mass market cameras than the up market ones. That makes sense, as those cameras are made in the millions while a D4 would barely break 100,000 in its first six months. Trying to find suppliers to give you millions of something for multiple products is much more difficult than finding one to give you tens of thousands a units a month. Moreover, more of the D3 is Nikon sourced than, say, a Coolpix 9100, so they have more control.

      Still, if you look at Nikon’s forward forecast, they basically show the petal to the floor in both compact and interchangeable lens cameras, meaning we must have new models of both. The question is what gets launched when. Since 2004 we’ve had new Coolpix models launched in August or September in all but one year. The pro generation has angled backwards (June for D1, July for D2h, August for D3), but otherwise been on four year boundaries. So history doesn’t tell you what we get in August and what we get in September, but tells that we should get both in that time frame.

      I’ve been pondering the question of leaks on the pro stuff a bit more, and I wonder if the quake changed disclosure schedules. Most of the pro gear leaks out of Nikon come from relatively close in sources. Subsidiary personnel travel to Japan or executives travel to subsidiaries to do training. Prototypes get to a few key shooters for brochure shooting. Many of the leaks come out of that process, despite NDAs. The reason why that’s different than the lower end leaks is that the lower end cameras usually have to be built for two or three months prior to announce in order to build up enough stock to distribute worldwide. The process of getting ready to sell X million widgets rather than tens of thousands widgets in the first few months of sale results in a much wider group of people coming into contact with restricted information.

      • Joe

        What does it mean? Does it mean it’s possible that Coolpix announcement will come a month later this time due to the slow recovery on low end product?

        It’s only five days away from 24th. If something does come out on that day, I can’t imagine how much effort Nikon has spent to keep it secret.

        • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

          My point has been and continues to be that Nikon Japan itself is relatively non-leaky. What leaks do come out of corporate are vague and general (and often slightly misleading by the time they get translated). It’s the very last parts of the process, where the consumer stuff goes into off-shore manufacturing or the pro stuff starts being disclosed to subsidiaries that we get the leaks.

          My assumption has always been that a D4 won’t go into production until AFTER it is announced. Thus, disclosure can come very late in the pre-announce cycle. The mirrorless must already be in production somewhere in SE Asia, and thus should be leaking. The D700 replacement is somewhere between those two.

          But to specifically answer your question: if Nikon announces Coolpix in August or September, then that would be pretty much be on a normal schedule. I wouldn’t read anything into which month they ultimately picked. But if Coolpix don’t get announced or are delayed until October or later, then something would have changed in Nikon’s recent product cycles. Technically, the design side wasn’t in the hardest hit parts of the quake, so disruptions there probably were minimal. What was hard hit was production of FX bodies and high-end lenses, and suppliers of parts to all sorts of Nikon products.

  • DCN

    Has anyone noticed that along with D700 it looks like the D3x looks to be out of stock in a lot of places (at least in the U.S)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/joe_i/ Joe

    The “shortage” of professional bodies…

    Is it a shortage or does it have something to do with economics/ supply and demand?

    Yes, there was the tsunami and I don’t want to take away from that or the suffering of folks in Japan however, if memory serves me correctly, there were shortages of various items prior to the tsunami as well.

    Just my $0.02 …

  • Mathis

    As some already pointed out. Many stores don’t even have the D700 anymore. Their all run out of the model. Last time I checked it included stores like B&H in NY and big local stores here in Norway.

    I would say this might indicate that something is going on behind the scene. It might not be announced next week.. though, I would bet it’s just around the corder. Why else run out of cameras and not make sure to replace the stock?

  • JPUser

    The new camera will be a D400, an upgrade from D300s pro features based on D7000. Remember it.

    Nikon has usually cashback campaigns in Japan that when they finish it they release a new model, similar in features to the one offered in the cashback campaign, cheaper or more expensive. Last example, on abril they offered cash back on D7000 and then when it was over they released the d5100. Same happen before with D90/D7000, D3000/D3100, etc.

    Now they have again a D7000 cashback campaign that finishes on August 31. D300s started to be sold on August 30, 2009. So my guess the new camera will be the new D300s, as the D300s body as price is similar -in fact chepaer- to the kit D7000+18-105, so they want people buying d7000 before releasing a new D300s that is similar in price in Japan. People who buys a D7000 might wait instead to get the new D400.

    Anyway timing is too similar always with cashback campaigns, like I said it on their last time cashback before releasing D5100 – a cheaper model with same sensor. Now another d7000 cash back campaign before releasing a new D300s with similar sensor just more professional features.

    So just wait at the announcement of new Nikon D400.

  • 120-300 F2:8 OS

    Very good work mister Peter Admin i think you should open on wall street your IPO for let s say 200 us for all your good work to nikon.
    And yes we have to wait just some days more or month soon w ´ll see x our finges for that

  • Dr Motmot

    Admin – is there any way of doing a poll to see how many photographers have actually switched from Nikon to Canon or visa versa? I had a Canon 35mm film camera but switched to Nikon when I went digital and would never go back. I did buy the G12 because it seemed to be superior to the Nikon equivalent but I am not overly impressed with it (IQ a bit disapointing if you are used to a DSLR).

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I can do such a poll in the future, my guess is not many but polls are not really a good representation of reality in the Internet age :)

      • matgay

        i can vote 3 times for those who dont vote if thatll help :)

      • NikonD80Still

        polls like that will invite flames. i switched to nikon when i got my first digital. i have canon film slr prior to that.

    • Kon_head

      I shot Nikon F in our old film days. Bought into Canon system (circa 10D era) when Nikon’s DSLR were lagging behind , owned $25,000 (including 800mm 5.6 IS) worth of Canon gears. When Canon gave up their IQ advantages and went big guns for mega pixels (circa 50D/7D), I took a hit and switched to Nikon. With the new Canon light weight super teles, Nikon laggy lens releases, and Nikon’s joining the mp craze. I might jump back into the Canon camp again with their 1 series bodies. It is all about IQ for me, I don’t really care it has the yellow or red labels.

  • http://www.seanmolin.com Sean Molin

    Maybe the mistake was lumping the D700 in the prosumer category along with the D300. Remember it *was* made in Japan with the D3 series. The pro line only gets a full refresh every 4 years. While that doesn’t explain why there is not a D700s or D700x… Maybe the D700 was actually considered a D3 variant.

  • Mike

    Oh man… this is getting exciting. Thanks admin, for all the updates!

  • Rbashir

    Ok so lets say once the camera are announced on the press release, how long does it take after that to actually cameras hitting the shelves and people can order them?

    • Kon_head

      Usually 2-3 months for the first issues, 3-5 months for the mortals.

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