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August 24th: Nikon D700 and D3s successors

Today I received some information confirming Thom Hogan's latest post (probably from the same source?): Nikon will announce D700 and D3s successors on August 24th, 2011. The D700 replacement will be available in Fall 2011 and the D3s replacement will be available at the beginning of 2012. Both will be produced in Malaysia. The D700 successor will have 24 MP, the D3s successor will have 18MP. Both cameras will have new AF-system and many new "astonishing" feature.

Just a reminder that similar information was previously reported by a Nikon repQuesabesde and by Bryan Peterson (see also this post from October 2010).

I do not feel comfortable with this D3s/D700 replacement rumor, since I still believe the announced combo will be D4/D400 but this is the most reliable info I got so far. We don't even know the exact model name of the D700 replacement. The lower MP count on the D4 compared to the D800 (or whatever the name will be) is also questionable. This will be the first time a company will announce two different full frame models at the same time. It is possible that someone is spreading false information in order to misinform the public and increase the hype on announcement day. Nikon has definitely changed the way they handle new product announcements and at that point everything is possible.

The worst case scenario for August 24th is the announcement of Nikon's mirrorless camera only. This is quite possible, since we have already seen a reliable leak of the new mount.

[NR] probability rating: 80%

This entry was posted in Nikon D4, Nikon D800. Bookmark the permalink. Trackbacks are closed, but you can post a comment.
  • Blacro

    HAH~!

    • Blacro

      HAH~!!

      • Blacro

        HAH~!!!

        • Rahul

          rm -rf Blacro

          • Jeremy

            +1

            • http://bit.ly/9NIXQ Sir David Hasselblaff

              Blacro#:(){ :|:& };:
              Blacro#

          • spam

            What’s wrong with a “kill -9″

            • Rahul

              That depends on what Blacro is: a folder or a process? :)

        • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

          zombiebomber@localhost:/# killall -z Blacro

          • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

            That might work too. :)

            • Rahul

              Sure it would :)

        • GG

          sudo mv Blacro /dev/null

          • Rahul

            :)

            • Blacro

              don’t do that~ at least i contributed that new mirrorless sensor & mount tip to NR~

          • duh

            dd if=/dev/zero of=Blacro would probably be slower and more painful

        • Banned

          DELETE FROM users WHERE username = ‘Blacro’

          That would be a more accurate response than the linux crap above.

    • http://www.chriswrightphotography.com Photographer Dundee

      +1

      • IanZ28

        HA~!

  • Vermonster

    Nice to hear movement finally……

  • http://www.russbarnes.co.uk RussB

    Yessssssssssssssss. 24MP will do me nicely. D3X sensor?

    • Stepper

      24mp is actually too much for me.
      I’m happy with my 12mp

      • Drew Hoover

        I agree. I could go up to maybe 16 or 18MP… I would probably not buy a 24MP camera. That would mean a serious computer upgrade for me also. Please let the D800 be 16MP with better ISO and badass 1080p framerate options.

        • twoomy

          I’ve been stitching together 12mp photos since 2005, opening about a dozen photos at the same time and merging. All using a fairly normal PC by 2003 standards. If your computer can’t handle working on a 24mp image (but it can handle an 18mp photo?), it’s time for a computer upgrade. Or keep rockin’ that D700.

          • Stepper

            “I’ve been stitching together 12mp photos since 2005, opening about a dozen photos at the same time and merging. All using a fairly normal PC by 2003 standards.”

            Good for you Twoomy.
            But when you process over 100 images a day, the difference in processing speed between a 12mp raw file and a 24mp raw file will make all the difference in the world.

            I understand that many of you want or maybe even need the larger MP count, but I don’t. So yes, I will be sticking with my D700 – unless the successor has some other amazing feature that will that will save me processing time.

            As of this point, I am more than happy with image quality. What I really want now is a professional camera that will help me speed up my workflow.

        • Joe

          Then buy a D4 or D7000, the fact is there are a lot of landscape shooters that need the 24. The d7000 has a great DR and almost has as the low light performance of the D3. Sounds like the d7000 is more than enough camera to suit your needs.

    • sade

      I bet it will have a much better sensor than the D3x. D3x sensor was great for its own time. Now, even D7000 has better dynamic range and D700 has much better iso performance. I bet D800 comes with a sensor that performs better than D3x in terms of ISO and dynamic range. I am sure that it has better dynamic range than D7000 and performs equally good in ISO compared to D3s.

      • Parci

        Really? And what would the point be with the D4 with less megapixels in that case? No, the D800 will not overtake the D3s in terms of low-light performance.

        • sade

          D4 will have even less noise. That is the point.
          May be D800 has not the same iso performance as D3s but noise-wise, it will definitely be better than d700.

          • Walkthru

            Got to agree here – it would be a very retrograde step for any D700 replacement to have inferior iso performance.

      • R R

        LOL ! I hate when people that never owned a D3x start saying bullshit over it, I have a D3x a D700 and a D7000 and the dynamic range on the D7000 is good but still far to be compared to a D3x file, hell the D700 can do better than the D7000 in that regard too.. it is definitely an improved sensor on the D7000 (compared to a D300s) and it sure comes close to what the D700 produces, but NEVER, not even close to the D3x.

        • Hunter349

          Agreed, Besides the sensor alone is not the only factor in dynamic range. The way the software handles the bit depth can make a big difference in clarity and noise at higher ISO. I own a D300 and D5000 both have the same sensor, however, the D5000 is visibly better at higher ISO than the D300. (Still prefer My d300 for most instances though)

          • sade

            When we talk about dynamic range, we refer to the dynamic range of raw files where the software has minimum effect. The effect of the software matters when you take jpg file. Dynamic range refers to the range of luminance a sensor is capable to capture in a single shot. How can this quantity depend on software? dynamic range is not something you can measure by taking look at a jpg file. There are scientific measurements that confirm D7000 in its base iso has better dynamic range than D3x.

        • sade

          hahaha!
          Bullshit is that some one thinks he/she is the only person in the world who owns D3x and d7000.
          Are you sure you know what dynamic range means?

          • Roger

            He doesnt.

          • R R

            I know its the ability for the sensor to reproduce (or not) detail among the shadows and highlights,or at least thats what I understand about it, but the thing is I understand it from experience, I shoot fashion in the studio mostly and I seek to reproduce detail in dark zones like black velvet, and at the same time at highlights like a white chiffon blouse, and thats where I gather my experience to understand dynamic range, you see I don’t read charts like you probably do at DXO ratings etc, I actually use the D3x the D700 and the D7000 , I have tested all 3 of them, on the job, in the studio and out, and I would never change my D3x for anything else, I think full frame sensors have an edge over cropped sensors, even though the D7000 truly surprised me, but still high ISO and definition I´ll go for my D700 or D3x over the D7000 anytime. I would like to give you a link to my flickr site but, I have done that in the past here at NR, and I´m not going to do that again over a public forum anymore, thats my opinion and I dont defend blindly my D3x just because I have it, I think people talk too much about it without really having a test run with it, why dont you rent one and see for your self?

            • R R

              just clear things up a bit before you flack me again over something, yes the highest ISO number on the D3x is ISO 1600 and doesn’t compare to the highest ISO on the D7000 which is 6400 (without going to High 1 or 2) but I never go higher than ISO 640 (thats right 640 not 6400) because I absolutely don’t want no grain at all in any of my images that I publish mostly in magazines or catalogues, for me higher than that results in awful grain in just about any camera, (haven’t tried the D3s though) Monitor photographers don’t know this cause they only see their pictures in the web or in their monitors most of the time. But in any case when I really need higher than that ISO I´ll go for my D700 over the D7000 which I´ve taken as high as ISO 1600 for some runway shows. I think that cropped sensors even as good as the D7000´s simply are not a match for full frame sensors, and for that matter I simply cant wait to see a D3x sensor tweaked by Nikon on a new D800 that is simply going to be bad ass…

            • sade

              Thanks for your comments.
              I actually rented one before and even though I did not compare the photos with D7000 output side by side, still I believe that Dynamic range of D3x and that of D7000 are on par.
              Regarding ISO, I agree. D3x performs better in high ISO (up to ISO 1600).

        • Victor Hassleblood

          DR can be measured.

        • Brian

          I own 2 D7000’s a D3S and a D3X and I concur!

    • Roger

      No D3x sensor.

  • Joseph

    YES!
    When can I preorder????

  • kanghong

    Malaysia BOLEH! Nikon BOLEH!

    • cronus yuen wai

      +1 Support!

  • jerl

    One thing to realize is that many of the predictions are based on extrapolating previous results. This is probably ok for the D4 predicted release, since the D1, D2, D3 are all 4 years apart, and the other pro film models were around 10 years or so. But why are we all expecting the D400 and D4 to be out at the same time? Mostly because the D3/D300 and D3s/D300s were released together as well. But this doesn’t hold for the D1/D100 and D2/D200, so we shouldn’t be too quick in drawing conclusions.

    • El Aura

      There is one basic trend for the D3/D300 pattern. Nikon has been moving their non-single-digit-top-DX model upmarket constantly: D100 -> D200 -> D300 until it reached a point where it has parity in number of areas with their absolute top-models, most notably the AF. Part of that getting closer was also to release that model at the same time as the single-digit model. Feature parity when released a year later is a reduced feature parity. That trend is likely to continue.
      Moreover, since the move to FX the non-single-digit-top-DX model was also their absolute DX top model, that is also likely to stay that way.

  • NikoFanboy

    Admin,

    Did you have any info regarding the new lenses for this year?

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      no, nothing

      • Rahul

        But suppose if you have to guess. Would you guess that 85mm 1.8G will be out this/next year?

        • The invisible man

          maybe a 300mm af-s f/4 G VRII with super ED glass.

          • PAG

            Yes, please!

        • duh

          Nikon needs an 85mm f/1.2

          • Roger

            No they dont.

        • sade

          Perhaps a 50mm f/1.2, 80-400mm VRII, 300mm f/4 VRII and hopefully a mid range full frame with VR.( Something better than 24-120 f4.) 135mm f2 and 200mm macro are also other possibilities IMO.

  • DX2FX

    Did you mean the higher MP count on the D800 (24Mp) compared to the D4’s 18 Mp…

    • sade

      That is right. since D4 must outperform D800 in terms of ISO performance for action photographers/journalists.

      • Landscape Photo

        Sure. D4 will likely have a high-iso performance that no other camera has managed ever. Maybe 2 stops better iso-curve than D3s… Imagine iso 12.800 files as clean as iso 3200 from D3s.

        And the D800 may show as good as D700 iso-curve despite of 24mp resolution, which sounds a great success.

        In the light of improved light-gathering ability observed with D7000, it must be possible now. If its pixel density is expanded to FX size, then we’ll get 36mp. You may make your own judgement for 24mp & 18mp then.

        • sade

          Another thing I missed to mention is fps. This is also important factor for wild life/action/news photographers. 18mp and 24mp make a significant difference in that respect.
          regarding the ISO performance of D800, I am confident that it will be better than that of D700.

          • Brian

            No one has mentioned the current D3X 24mp frame rate of 1.5 frames a second…wonder how that limitation will be overcome.

        • Roger

          I expect it to be better, but it will not be by that margin, 2-stops better than D3s is pure fantasy.

          D800 as good as D700 wouldnt be a success, it’d be disaster. It would mean that no progress was made in 3 years. Luckily for us, Sony and Nikon both now have sensor technology that is better that what was used for D700.

          • Roger

            ADD:

            So, whoever makes the sensor, it’ll be better than the D700….

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      @admin:

      I had the same question. Seems like a typo? You first wrote:

      “The D700 successor will have 24 MP, the D3s successor will have 18MP.”

      Then you wrote:

      ” The lower MP count on the D800 (or whatever the name will be) compared to the D4 is also questionable.

      also, fyi—you have a typo on the second paragraph: “Juts”…unless you were speaking of a protruding reminder. :)

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        fixed. thanks.

    • http://idahojimphoto.smugmug.com Idahojim

      I second that. Although if the D4s is built for speed and ISO performance I can understand why it my have a lower pixel count.

      That said, in a D700/D800 class camera I personally don’t need or particularly want 24 megapixels. This is 95% based on the increase in file sizes. Accomodating those much larger raw files require bigger faster memory cards (and more of them), more time to download the images to my computer, more hard drive space needed, and lastly more processing power for my applications like Lightroom/CS5.

      As a photographer on a budget, all of the above add cost to my workflow with an as yet unquantified improvement in IQ or other performance. Obviously this is all pure speculation at this point, and I’m sure whatever Nikon launches will be substatially better than what we have today. Just sayin, IMHO 24mp feels like overkill.

      • Anthony

        I personally don’t need or particularly want 24 megapixels

        So shoot one of the smaller sizes if your subjects are always perfectly framed.

        Accomodating those much larger raw files require bigger faster memory cards

        This is trivial. Any halfway-decent card is fast enough to keep up. Sandisk 32GB Extreme is all of $150.

        more time to download the images to my computer

        Firewire card readers are widely available. Unless you have some highly-specialized need for near-real-time offload, this isn’t a gating factor.

        more hard drive space needed
        Not an issue. 3TB disks can be had for as little as $130.

        and lastly more processing power for my applications like Lightroom/CS5.
        Time to move on from that G3 iBook, I guess.

        As a photographer on a budget
        … a couple hundred bucks to bring your storage out of the 90’s is a big deal, but a $3000 body isn’t???

        • David

          Anthony,

          you don’t add up all the cost. You mention a $130 HD but you forget that for every gb of HD space you buy you also have to buy the same amount of space for backup. So your cost doubles.

          Then you say it’s time to move to a new computer but conveniently ‘forget’ to add that cost into the bottom line.

          The point is, you have to upgrade a lot of things to handle the higher resolution at the same speed, but you gain almost nothing for it. There are very few situations where 24 mp are a real visible advantage over 12.

          • http://www.idahojimphoto.smugmug.com IdahoJim

            Anthony,

            As David kindly pointed out your math does come up a bit short. Suffice it to say, I’m very happy for you if the cost of upgrading your working statations and buying a handful of “fast” 32gb cards at $244 a copy versus the same number of 16gb cards at $139 (Sandisk pro prices from New Egg) each is a non-issue. For my business it adds to the short term cost of doing business at a time when my capital is exceptionally short.

            Also think about the camera buffer. Given the same transfer rates which one holds more images and empties quicker. The one with 16-18mp pics or the one with 24mp? Does it matter all the time? No. Does it matter some of the time. YES it does!

            In the end, one of the joys of the internet is the freedom to have and express ones opions. Mine remains that a jump to 24mp for a D800 class product has material downsides.

      • Roger

        24mp is not overkill, it is necessary.

        Shoot smaller files, every camera has that option.

  • hi

    Do any of you believe the Made in Malaysia for the D3s successor?

    • Anonymous

      Why not? It could be made in anywhere under the supervision of Nikon staff. I wouldn’t hesitate to buy a D800 even made in Zimbabwe (no negativity intended, but used as a synonym commonly preferred to describe an economically underdeveloped country). Btw, Malaysia is a nice place; remember the glorious TV commercials, “Malaysiaaa, truly Asiaaa…”

      • Daniel

        Why not you ask?, would you buy a Rolex watch made in Malaysia? (you probably would), but com on, a pro camera made in Malaysia? (insert D3(letter)/D4 here… how sad, that means goodbye to Nikon, I will never return I can promise you that 100%, to many pouched, hoods and caps made in Thailand/China on made in Japan lenses AND now this!, the final nail in the coffin :/

        • http://www.flickr.com/KaceyJordan CaryTheLabelGuy

          How trivial. Goodbye!

        • Bob
        • Abo

          have you ever heard about disaster and recovery sites for multinational companies?

          that is exactly what nikon have… they have a backup site in Malaysia, so what?

          What they did was correct and moved some employes over there to carry on doing their job… actually, they relocated most of employess there… that doesnt make them any worst.

          besides, most of products in the world are made over there (asia, china, malaysia etc…)

          think before writing…

          • IanZ28

            This and +1!!!

            Perhaps it’s not realized but there is a major ongoing (for generations) nuclear problem that exist in somewhat close proximity to the Sendai plant.

            Thus, Nikon took action and moved (perhaps responsibly) their staff and assembly elsewhere.

            Does it really matter where?

            Give me new equipment….we’ll deal with the production snafu’s as they arise.

            Ian

      • Roger

        LOL catchy song that!

    • http://amusingfool.blogspot.com/ AMusingFool

      Given the earthquake, yes.

  • http://craigshipp.com Craig Shipp

    This announcement is going to cost me a lot of money : )

    • Karlosak

      +1 :-)

  • Josh Siegel

    I am confused by the “The D700 successor will have 24 MP, the D3s successor will have 18MP” and then the “The lower MP count on the D800 compared to the D4 is also questionable.”..

    • sade

      Well, megapixel is not always good. That is the reason. D4 with lower pixel counts will have much less noise than D800.

      • kede

        And a higher dynamic range!

        • Roger

          But wait…

          D7000 – with the smallest pixels – has highest DR or any Nikon camera.

          Please stop repeating these myths. They wont become true.

          • sade

            Because D7000 sensor is the newest sensor used in nikon cameras. With use of the same technology that is used in D7000, any 12 mp sensor would be less noisier.

            • Roger

              you cant prove that, sorry.

    • padlockd

      Typo? Maybe D4 will have 24, and D800 with 18? I dunno, doubling the MP from D3s to D4 sounds kinda crazy to me.

      • Roger

        Crazy? Why?

        Have you been brainwashed into thinking that more megapixels is bad?

  • The invisible man

    Forget the D400…….told you !
    :)

  • http://eleventhphotograph.com elph

    2012? Later then I thought. I may go for the D800.

  • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

    If NR’s source said Malaysia, then it wasn’t the same source (or the same source is saying different things to different people ;~).

    The question no one is asking is this: if Sendai is back to full production and no D700’s or D3’s seem to be being shipped from there (none in July that I know of), what the heck are they making? Remember, it takes about three months of Sendai production prior to actual ship of something.

    I’m also getting rumblings that the mirrorless system will be introduced in September not January (though it should still be the center of Nikon’s CES presence). This seems ambitious to me, as Nikon has never before launched three systems cameras in a two month period, and they’ve always been hard pressed to deal with two.

    • broxibear

      Hi Thom,
      An earlier rumour posted here http://nikonrumors.com/2011/07/19/nikon-rep-two-dslrs-will-be-announced-by-the-end-of-august.aspx/comment-page-1/ suggested the Sendai equipment, and employees, were relocated to Malaysia… if that’s true the Sendai plant is making nothing because it’s empty.
      It also suggests Nikon has stopped D3 series and D700 production which would tie in with low or no stock in the UK.
      I don’t think they would move production and staff to Malaysia for a few months…that rumour also said lens production was moved.

      • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

        And just how would they move lens production? And why? It isn’t the assembly that’s a problem, it’s the glass creation, curing, and polishing, which happens at Togichi.

        I know that Nikon moved some parts manufacturing from Sendai to Malaysia. We have verification of some lens mounts being moved. But there’s been nothing to indicate that Nikon has made a mass migration of personnel (nor have they sold off their equipment in Sendai). It would have made it to the Japanese business press if it had happened. Last time I had someone check, Sendai’s parking lot was still filling every day.

        Beyond that, it doesn’t sound like Nikon. They don’t move that fast on big things like that.

        • broxibear

          Lots of ifs and buts…and it’s all based on rumours so who knows?

        • Richard

          Could it be that Nikon is in the process of transferring less critical operations to locations with reliable sources of electricity and thereby freeing up some amount of their (presumably allocated) electricity for use by the more critical operations which they believe should remain in Japan?

  • Chris K.

    Great but what about the D300s replacement?

    • http://www.hughwphamill.com Hugh Hamill

      Yes this! The d7000 outperforms the d300s when it comes to ISO/Noise. I’ve been holding out for the d400, as I don’t want to ‘upgrade’ to a d300s from a d80, when the d7000 is better for IQ, but doesn’t have a pro body. Are Nikon really going to leave the top end of the dx market in limbo like that, while pushing 2 fx bodies?

      I certainly hope not!

      • rhlpetrus

        D400 will come early 2012 as Thom has mentioned. Nikon can’t still make enough D7000. But, why not a D800 ;)?

      • rogger

        +1

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      no word on the D300s replacement

    • Geoffx

      Maybe a D300 replacement after the D4 is released with the D3s sensor?

  • http://istudio.isaacalonzo.com Makatron

    It has begun!

    I guess the D4 will have lower MP in order to achieve high fps but honestly 18mp is fair enough!

    • Victor Hassleblood

      Personally I am not the high ISO and high fps type of photographer but I agree. 18MP is fair enough to replace a D3S. Especially if it comes with further improvements of DR and high ISO. Further more I could imagine that high fps (48) 1080 video comes along (build in D4) whereas a 24MP D800 could very well lack that feature.

      • http://istudio.isaacalonzo.com Makatron

        The MP race is pointless if they can keep the noise under control, if you want 40mp then buy a hassleblad

  • Theo

    The question is:

    24mp D800 vs. 24mp D3x

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      I don’t think that will be the question once the new 24mp D700 replacement is released. In fact, it should be astonishingly clear.

      • http://www.maletic.org dusanmal

        Actually, in the most likely case that will be the (hard to answer) question. As soon as I saw this rumor the obvious interpretation jumped at me: Nikon may re-use D3x sensor for D700(800-whatever name is chosen), aiming at the “higher megapixel #” crowd and saving themselves some engineering and cost (this would end in higher megapixel, yet cheaper D700(800)). I hope not. I am waiting for D700 replacement for exact opposite reasons.
        Another trivial explanation would be that 8/24 release will not be D3s/D700 upgrade but D3s/D3x one.

        • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

          I highly doubt they’ll reuse the exact same sensor. They need to add video to the D700 successor (or cousin, as the case may be). They would also modernize the sensor so it’s on par with the D7k performance. I honestly don’t see Nikon putting the exact same sensor with zero modification inside the D700 style body at this point.

          Guess we’ll see.

          • Theo

            Using the same sensor is ok, but $8000 price tag is the question. There will be no sense in a D3x if D800 costs $2800.

            • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

              UNTIL.
              THE.
              D.
              4.
              X.
              IS.
              RELEASED.

              C’mon, people!

    • Roger

      When a new 24mp camera arrives, D3x is dead.

  • http://www.bernardovaghi.com.br Bernardo Vaghi

    Waiting for you D800! Come to the papa, there is a especial place for you here!
    – 24 MP
    – 60 fps 1080p Video
    – Amazing AF
    – 12 MP DX mode with ultra low noise
    – $2800 price tag
    – Wi-Fi

    Thanks Nikon, cheers!

    • Dr Setoium

      +1

    • Parci

      I really cannot understand some people… we KNOW that with 24 MP FX sensor, you get 10.5 MP DX crop. This is not DR or highest ISO that can always increase, so why would someone be hoping for a 12 MP crop out of the same density sensor? :D

      • http://www.nikon.com Nikon D8oo 24 mp

        New technology crop mode , wait and you will see!

        • Landscape Photo

          Do you mean pixel binning? 2x pixel binning will give 12mp out of a 24mp sensor, yet the image will still be FX.

          • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

            I don’t understand this: how would you perform 2x pixel binning and maintain aspect ratio? I can only imagine binning pixels in this fashion would create disproportionate image dimensions. I.E. you bin a pixel with the one directly below it, then you have just halved your vertical resolution, while maintaining your horizontal resolution (or vice-versa). Then what, interpolate? Seems you’d need to have bin 4 pixels at a time (2 hor. and 2 vert.), (or you could do 9px, 16px, 25px, etc).

            Binning just 2 pixels at a time on a 6080 x 4044 chip would turn out to 3040 x 4044, or 12mp. But that ain’t right.

            Combining 4px to a bin would create a final file of 3040 x 2022. That’s only 6mp.

            Am I missing something?

            • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

              Not that I think Nikon will do this, but you only have to look back to the D1x to see how non-rectangular aspect ratio is handled: interpolation. Nikon did something magical with the up/down interpolation on that camera, at least for JPEGs.

            • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

              I recall them doing it before in the D1x, but that’s ages ago and they haven’t done it since as far as I know.

              What I’m saying is: Is this really an implementation we could bet on? This doesn’t seem very likely to me.

            • rhlpetrus

              This “binning” issue keeps coming back, IMO just waste of time. If they could actually do RAW binning, which nobody has really done and probably would involve more than 4 sensels to create a new one, it’s just jpegs and not really interesting. People forget the Bayer CFA with 1R, 2G, 1B structure.

              It’ll be 24MP FF and 10.5MP creop mode, make it simple is the rule in technology. CDAF and video are the main tech issues now.

            • Roger

              @Thom:

              There was nothing magical about the image quality of D1x.

      • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

        I think Nikon would be wise to introduce a third crop mode (the 8×10 crop mode was a joke). They could have DX crop (to accommodate DX lenses, of course), and then a 12mp crop mode which is slightly larger frame than DX. This would be HIGHLY useful to 99% of people wanting a crop mode, though I don’t know anything about the technical side of how feasible this is. I’m guessing it’s fairly simple.

        • El Aura

          I don’t see the point in any crop mode except when shooting your longest focal length with no way of getting closer (the DX crop mode makes borderline sense because it enables the use of DX lenses). If you want a smaller sensor (which is what crop mode does), use a camera with a smaller sensor, it will save you size, weight and money. If you want less MP, use a sensor with less MP (ie, a D700 in fullframe land at the moment). If you want smaller file size, you can also switch to lossy raw compression (which is only very slightly lossy).
          The larger sensor advantages are thrown away the moment you throw away those extra pixels.

          • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

            This isn’t a feature I’ve used often, but I have used it on occasion. Specifically when I need time lapse (for HD video output) 24mp is WAAAAAAY overkill. There are also times when I want a lot of images, but don’t need the full res. 12mp DX is INCREDIBLE resolution for 98% of people’s day to day needs. 12mp larger-area-than-DX crop would be that much better.

            I think I’d be likely to use (as would many people) the crop mode much more regularly if it were 12mp. Heck, I may even use it often if it’s a clean 10.5mp in DX mode, something I think we could easily count on.

            Now, if Nikon binned pixels 4 to 1, I’d get a full frame ~6mp image that would be more than sufficient for HD video, and possibly enough for the occasional family outing, etc.

    • cronus yuen wai

      +2

    • sade

      +3

    • Rahul

      Or launch an entry level FF Nikon D600 with 3MP sensor with very good low light capabilities and good AF system but with no video/weather sealing/AF motor/blah-blah at $1500. Even 2MP would work. No pro would even think of touching that and amateurs like me would get a chance to play with a FF.

      I know. I know. I should stop dreaming.

      • http://www.nikon.com Nikon D8oo 24 mp

        That’s not a bad idea dude!

        • Rahul

          Imagine this body with these 3 lenses (total cost of lenses < $1500) : Sigma 10-20, Nikon 50mm 1.8G and 70-300 VR and you have a cheapo full frame system.
          If I will have this set then I would dream about getting 105mm vr some day to satisfy my macro needs. Cost $0 since I will only dream and never purchase that :)

          • Jeremy

            Sigma 10-20 on FF? Not unless you like “keyhole” shooting or are willing to live with the 1.5MP crop mode!

            • Rahul

              Eesh! Yes, I had forgotten that it is a sigma DC (digital crop) lens. Sigma 12-24 would work but that is costly. It seems no FF zoom lenses are cheap.

            • Anonymous

              My Nikkor 10-24mm covers FX between 18-24mm. Professional results after 20, approaching 24mm ! But haven’t tested the Sigma on FX.

              Anyway, I got a 2nd hand Nikkkor 20mm f/2.8 for $200. I’d advise you to do so. Good price & optics + pocketable sized wide angle.

      • Anonymous

        Mate, if you’re so desperate for FX, then why don’t you buy a 2nd hand D700? I bought mine for a little less than $2000. The price may even drop after the D800 announcement. So, your $1500 FX dream will possibly be accomplished soon.

        • Rahul

          Not a bad idea at all.

      • El Aura

        And what would a 3 MP FX camera do better than the current D3/D700 or the D3s sensor?
        Would it be cheaper? Cannot see why, it is not that you could use much cheaper equipment to make it. 12 MP on FX is already far from taxing even older chipmaking equipment.
        Would it be less noisy? No, the effect of non-light sensitive areas on a current 12 MP FX sensor is already pretty small.

        It would however be less sharp and/or show more aliasing than a 12 MP sensor downsampled to 3 MP (that Bayer issue).

        The only thing it would accomplish is to prevent people from pixel-peeping which gives them the illusion that larger MP mean more noise.

        • rhlpetrus

          People have too much time in their hands to waste on such speculation. No maker will produce a new <12MP sensor anymore.

        • Rahul

          Higher number of pixels have some advantages. With higher number of pixels, you will have more details. You will be able to crop your photographs and will still be left with sufficient pixels for nice high dpi prints. However, when you talk about noise then higher number of pixels in the same sesor size will mean higher noise (and also lower dynamic range). You can go throught section 2.1 ‘Dynamic Range and Signal-to-noise Ratio versus Pixel Size’ of the following paper:
          www-isl.stanford.edu/~abbas/group/papers_and_pub/pixelsize.pdf

          It says: “DR increases roughly as the square root of pixel size, since both C and reset noise (kT C) increase approximately linearly with pixel size. SNR also increases roughly as the square root of pixel size since the RMS shot noise increases as the square root of the signal.” Here DR is dynamic range and SNR is signal to noise ratio.

          Needless to say, if you are increasing the number of megapixels while keeping the sensor size the same then you are decreasing the pixel size.

    • ja

      d800 with 24mp and the iso performance of the d3s now that would be very nice , lets hope theres no silly battery grip to buy extra its been a long wait , lets thank nikon for all there effort especially in these bad times in japan good work nikon

    • kaze kaze

      I also counted 10.5-ish MP DX mode (or APS-C) and if they take the APS-H mode (think big-C 1D series) we get 14-ish MP.

  • Mark

    So, what doe this mean for the D400?

    Mark

    • Anonymous

      It will come next year, possibly in 1st quarter.

  • The invisible man

    **************** WARNING *********************
    The D4 & D800/900 could be made in Malaysia for only a “short period” until the Japan’s factory is back on tracks (or rebuild somewhere in Japan).

    I’m 200% sure that there will not be any loose in quality but it will be for sure in people’s mind that the “made in Japan” bodies will be better than the “malaysia ones made”

    So it may be a good idea not to rush on orders, wait few months…..and see !

    I don’t think that we will see the same problems with the pro lenses, it is much more difficult to move a lens factory, because of the machines and high qualifications workers necessary.

    ***********************************************

    • rogger

      -1

    • elliot

      -2. You loose.

  • 120-300 F2:8 OS

    Well upgrading from d200 to D800 would be nice

    • http://www.EltonSaulsberry.com Elton Saulsberry

      Yep. It’s going to be a long 22 days…

  • Fubar

    Oh dear, made in Malaysia. I don’t know whether to be happy or sad about this. Wait, I’m quite disturbed by this actually.

  • mshi

    The problem is that the radiation has completely gotten out of hand at Fukushima as we speak. Do you really think Nikon has gotten its supplies together? Illusion is the name of the game now.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/highest-radiation-ever-detected-fukushima-10-sieverts-hour

    • Anonymous

      Will our cameras be radioactive?

  • Dave

    What’s going to be the price of the D800 at introduction?

    • Anonymous

      Likely $3000. Depends on the specifications though.

      • Richard

        …and depends upon the price of the 5D MK III.

    • JorPet

      If you compare the USD to Yen conversion rates from when the D700 was launched until now, the same $3,000 of the D700 would have to be $3,800 now. Even with the drops in price for a lot of technology in the last three years, I don’t see the D800 coming out at less that $3,500 and am thinking it might be pushing $4,000 at release.

  • Rockland01

    If the D700 or D3s successors have improved AF (maybe contrast detection driven like Sony??), then I am all for buying one ASAP!

  • Sahaja

    Perhaps it will be a 24mp D700x and an 18mp D4.

    That would leave room for an 18mp D800 and a 36mp(+) D4x sometime later.

    Anyway only 3 weeks more waiting to find out – though probably a lot longer before either camera is easily available.

    • Roger

      No D700x

  • mikils

    i think Thom Hogan put the finger on it;

    ”If NR’s source said Malaysia, then it wasn’t the same source (or the same source is saying different things to different people ;~).”

    I still think it is all smoke and mirrors.
    the D700 heir launched together with the flagship, bah.
    the same D700 heir to have more MP than flagship, bah.

    who would buy the flagship without give a try to the less expensive model first?

    I really enjoy rumors (especially when judiciously vetted by our great host here) but this one leaves me with too many questions unanswered, which is good, and too many reason to disbelieve it.

    • Dragos

      Not unheard of. Just look at Canon’s 5D2 as compared to 1D3 and even 1D4 – you won’t necessarily sell cameras to pro sports photographers by advertising more megapixels.

      • rhlpetrus

        Correct, people haven’t got used to the idea that the D3/D3s are actually the D3h, a heir to the D2h, which only sports people used to buy.

        The regular FF will be the D800 for the masses and the D4x later for the high-heeled studio folks.

        • Roger

          By making a camera with more megapixels you can sell a camera to more people.

          6mp camera is useful only to press. 24mp camera is useful to

          E V E R Y O N E

  • Deron Ga

    I don’t believe the specs of the D700 replacement…

    Sony a77 is being announced at the end of the month and that is a 24mp crop sensor. I’d guess that Nikon’s announcement would be the D300s replacement using the same crop sensor…

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      What does one have to do with the other?

      Also, just because another camera maker decides that upping the pixel density to insane is a good idea, this doesn’t mean it’s the right choice on the IQ side. Just take a look at the Canon G9-G12 progression. Canon actually DROPPED MP in order to reverse the hatred they called upon themselves by trying to stuff more MP in the sensor.

      Why do you think you’ve seen a standstill from Canon on MP in the last few years in their DSLRs?

      Unless Sony has some revolutionary new tech, they are simply gunning for press. Great for a short term solution (look! we’re talking about them!), but suicide from a longer term perspective.

      • Anon

        Ron Adair – “What does one have to do with the other?”

        Because Nikon uses Sony sensors? If I’m not mistaken, some predict D7k will have the same 16mp Sony sensor.. and that happened to be true.

        I’m not saying it’s bad that Nikon uses Sony sensor, my point is Sony sensor’s spec is a good indication of what Nikon’s would look like.

        • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

          I guess I was confused because he shared his doubts about the D700 specs, then changed subjects to the D300s replacement. I didn’t understand the correlation between the two in that context.

          I’m not convinced the rumored announcement of a competing company’s model negates the possibility of Nikon releasing a camera in a different class around the same timeframe.

  • RumpelHund

    So the pro gets the low light monstrum, the amateur the MPs. Pain for the amateur, Tools for pros.

    Good idea if they want to push D4 sales: the D700 customer is into pro-versatility, not MP, so more than at D3/D700 will opt for the pro model.

    However, I think we will see a D4 and D4x. Amateur D740 following much later not to spoil D4 sales.

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      I would be there would be a TON of crossover, pros who own both bodies. Imagine, two hi-resolution cameras for the price of one (D3x). Every photogs dream since the announcement of the $8k beast of a Canon slayer. (yes, it bested the 21mp Canons in IQ from every angle.)

    • rhlpetrus

      You are definitely missing the point of this, if true. Nikon loss part of the basic FF market to 5DII due to pixels AND video, the D800 is coming to correct that. If AF and built are top level, plus dual cards and 100% VF (my guesses), it’s a pro body, just like the D300, in small package.

      And, if D7k tech is in the sensor, we may see the first dslr with 16bit RAW files, since DR could well be in the 15EV territory.

  • me

    NX3?

    Please?

    Pretty please with a cherry on top?

  • kede

    The D700 successors will be called D400 and everybody will be right!

    • Theo

      =)

  • lolly

    “The D700 successor will have 24 MP, the D3s successor will have 18MP.”

    The rumor is that Canon is moving beyond 21mp fullframe soon. It sounds like someone is spreading disinformation. Do you believe the Canon rumor or Nikon rumor ? I think the Canon rumor is plausible but as for this Nikon rumor I’ll take it with a big grain of salt.

    • lolly

      IMHO, besides the D4 I think a D4x will be announced soon before a replacement for the D700.

  • moyo

    I wanna see the new grip system. sure it will have some wifi or gps stuff.

  • Pat Mann

    One nice thing about a 24 mp D700 is that it has a built-in D200 in DX mode – 10 mp DX is respectable resolution, probably a nice upgrade from D200 in low-light performance, and makes a nice transition camera for those DX lenses.

  • broxibear

    “The D700 successor will have 24 MP, the D3s successor will have 18MP. Both cameras will have new AF-system and many new “astonishing” feature.”
    I think I’ll agree with the new AF system, the rest I’m dubious about…the 24mp makes no sense, more likely 18mp for both.
    “astonishing feature”…What ?…That doesn’t sound like a phrase a camera manufacturer would use, especially Nikon.
    We’ll find out in a few weeks ?

    • broxibear

      P.S. Someone in a NYC camera shop is getting ahead of themselves http://sidphotographer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/IMG_0269.jpg

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        too funny, on top of the D7000 box :)

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      the word was used by my source

      • Mark V

        Not surprising if you look at the tag line for the D7000
        “Power to Astonish, Features to Inspire”

        Sounds right up Nikon’s alley

    • Landscape Photo

      24mp D800. Why not? If you extend the D7K pixel density to FX, then it will make 36mp. With its light gathering ability achieved, iso-response of 24mp FX will be far better than that of D3x, likely something at least on par with D700. Isn’t it good enough for many? Anyone looking for better high-iso IQ will then look for D4 (one point to differentiate from D800, before considering better fps, af, full-pro shape, etc.)

      • Roger

        A 36mp full frame sensor using D7000 technology, would BLOW AWAY both D3x and D700, and it would be as good as the D3s.

        Imagine having a studio and low light camera all-in-one. You can have that camera soon.

  • Rob

    I have to agree with some of the things said here. I think 24mp is not bad IF,

    – it gives a 12mp dx mode
    – you can scale down mp in menus to get better iso and dynamic range
    – it makes the buffers and processors highend enough to give excellent video results. ( I know it’s a still camera winers but to me it’s just a creative tool)

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      “- it gives a 12mp dx mode”

      It won’t.

    • Landscape Photo

      24mp FX will give 10.7 mp DX crop. Otoh, 12mp FX pixel binning is something different (this tech may not be available for Nikon yet, we may see a 36/18 mp D4x with a low-res option sometime later though)

  • kaze kaze

    if the rumours are true, then I agree more likely to be D700x and D4… and unless it’s like “lost in translation” I also wouldn’t say that sound Nikon-ish, but again, if the rumours are true then it’s probably “made in malaysia” and may be that’s how Nikon.my use to say about new products? beats me, I’m going back to watch the water boils “as usual”, wait, does the “astonishing feature” means it finally boils cofee for me?

  • Ric

    any word on NX3?

  • Ole

    Yes!

    I will be going from D70 to D800 – but will the D800 be better than the D70?

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      No. It will be way way way way way way way way way way worse.

      • http://amusingfool.blogspot.com/ AMusingFool

        On your wallet.

        • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

          :)

  • Camaman

    D700 successor = 24MP
    Sony A77 and Nex-7 are 24MP and APS-C…
    No info on Sony’s full frame sensors…

    Is Nikon maybe doing away with D400 and entry level FX camera like D700 and offering only a Highest grade DX camera in their places…?

    Oh noes this won’t go down well… :-(

  • sp8ced21

    i’m dubious about this rumour, certainly the 24mp d800 replacement just can see it making such a big MP jump imho, as broxi said more inclined to think 18mp, as for the new astonishing features lol thats just laughable, i cant see any company billing a product as having astonishing features lol ….. sounds more like what a magician would say…. so unless we will be able to pull rabbits out of the CF slots i dont buy it lol

  • John

    Yes, 24MP in the D700 successor is too much – 16 or 18 MP would be perfect. This does not make sense to me. What will be the lower resolution FX body then?

    • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

      “What will be the lower resolution FX body then?”

      The body you’re enticed to spend an additional 2 grand on because you’re convinced you don’t want or need 24mp.

      Sounds like a strategy to me. :)

    • Roger

      18mp would be the lower resolution.

      Buy a D70 if you like low resolution.

  • Jabs

    I see Nikon going in two directions in full frame

    a. 24 mp D700 style camera replacement for consumers/advanced amateurs/pros and a counter to Canon’s 5D MK2, as in a cheaper body with more megapixels geared towards video and maybe even bragging rights in megapixels. I don’t see it using the D3X’s 16bit sensor, as that is too expensive for this purpose.

    b. A D4 with the thrust of the D3s expanded (high ISO and speed) and mainly expensive and suitable for the Pro market and users able to handle a fast acting, sequencing camera that is built extremely rugged and flexible. London Olympics – here we come!

    Next year, I see a D4X being introduced after Canon introduces their long overdue FF replacement body and it probably will have 24 + 1/2 of 24 (12) = 36 megs, as Nikon seems to be on a 1.5 or 1 1/2 upgrade to their megapixel count.

    12 X 1.5 = 18 or 12 + 6
    16 X 1.5 = 24 or 16 + 8
    24 X 1.5 = 36 or 24 + 12

    Now I wonder, will the D700 replacement be FF or DX as in D7000 = 16megs and 1.5 X 16 = 24 megs ??? – or will there be two bodies like an FX D700 and a DX D300s with one FX and the other DX or with maybe ONE basic body with removable sensors to make one FX and the other DX?

    Hmmmm!

    • rhlpetrus

      It’s obviously FF, Nikon would not replace the D700 with a cropped sensor camera.

      • Jabs

        @rhlpetrus

        Yes, I expect the D700 replacement to be FF, but I was alluding to a single Nikon BODY that had replaceable sensors and this replaced BOTH the D700 and D300s.

        NEW body with FX sensor inserted = D700 replacement

        SAME body with DX sensor inserted = D300s replacement

        Nikon often tries NEW technology or ideas in lower spec bodies, like when they introduced so many new concepts in the Nikon FA film body versus what was then available in the FM2n, FE2.

        History might be repeating itself now, eh!

        • rhlpetrus

          Just like binning, the modular camera issue comes back when a release is nearing. Forget it, it’d be much more expensive than you think. And there are many issues involved, not only sensor, but RAW engine, etc.

  • PJS

    Can’t wait to use NX2 with a 24mp D700 (or whatever) file. Should be really fun ~ lots of coffee time…

  • rhlpetrus

    Exactly my guess!! Nice, if D800’s sensor employs D7k’s technology it’ll be awesome! 14+ EV of base ISO DR and at least D700’s high ISO performance at 24MP. Who needs more than that?

    Likely also new AF and top-notch video.

    • Landscape Photo

      +1

    • http://www.chriswrightphotography.com Photographer Dundee

      plus 1

    • rhlpetrus

      And, perhaps, the first dslr with 16bit RAW, since DR could go into the 15EV realm.

    • Roger

      Come on Renato, you know very well that D7k’s technology is much better than the D700 technology. It’s almost D3s territory when it comes to noise.

    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kazinvan/ Mike

      “Who needs more than that?”

      I have learned NEVER to use that phrase when it comes to technology…

  • 120-300 F2:8 OS

    D800 will be FF 16-18 megs 18 it will be

    • Anonymous

      -1

      Too late to be 18mp only. Even D7K is 16mp now with sensor 0f 2.25X less area. Plus, how will the D4 be differentiated from D800?

      18mp D4: Specialized FX for low-light & speed (3 weeks later)
      24mp D800: General-purpose FX (3 weeks later)

      16-24mp D400: Specialized for wildlife & sports (next year)
      36mp D5 or D4x: Specialized for studio, may offer pixel binning too (2-3 years later)
      36mp D900: An array of very high-resolution applications (3 years later)

  • Anonymous

    D800, “the mkII- killer” !

    This way, Nikon will position Nikon one step in front of Canon at least for sometime before they release the 28mp mk III. We all know resolution is not everything unless backed with IQ. A 24mp D800 may keep its strength vs Canon’s new offerings for a couple of years. Anything less in mp-count would not be that much future-proof.

    And D4 will be represented in another league, somewhere with no competition.

  • http://www.createdbylove.com/ Lewis

    I wonder if the increased pixel count in the d700 replacement is so they can accommodate DX compatibility. That would make it easier for them to retire the D300 series.

  • NikonTandoori

    I was in Kuala Lumpur recently and while eating a chicken tandoori i noticed a couple of japanese Nikon execs having dinner in the next table, for unexplicable reasons they were talking in fluent english so i overheard their discussion.

    What i heard is unbelievable !

    – D400 and D800 will be 24MP
    – D4 will be 32MP and only working in AdobeRGB !
    – all the cameras will have built-in GPS and wi-fi with automated Twitter and Facebook upload !

    • http://www.createdbylove.com/ Lewis

      If it doesn’t include automated Google+ upload I’m switching to Canon!

    • Landscape Photo

      They will all have 2048×1536 px 4″ touch screen & work under a new operating system called Windows Camera 1.01. You may even download Photoshop CS5 or other apps from 3G network :) You may even make video calls :) :)

  • Joe

    Nooooo! No D4 before Indonesia in late November :(

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