Nikon financial results for the year ended March 31, 2023: revenue up 28%, operating profit up 122%

Nikon’s financial results for the year are out (by RC Jenkins). For Imaging, Revenue was up 28%; and Operating Profit was up 122%.

Average revenue from any Nikon product (ILC+lens+compact, Nikon’s FYs, ending in March):

• 2022 = $615
• 2023 = $861 (+40%)
• 2024 = $969 (+13%, forecasted)

Remember that these are average revenues, not average prices. My guess is retail prices would be something like 20-30% over these.

For the current/upcoming year, Nikon is forecasting:

• A continued contraction in the entry-level models
• Continuing toward mirrorless & pro/sumer models
• The same 700K ILC units as last year, marking the first time I can remember in a long time that their units don’t decrease year to year, except maybe Covid
• No compact models (for the first time I can recall)

“Expect increased sales volumes of mirrorless cameras and interchangeable lenses for mirrorless cameras with the launch of new products, such as the Z 8”

Also notable for the current/upcoming year:

“Profit to decline on increased expenses, such as higher sales promotion expenses in response to the resolution of parts procurement constraints and market normalization.”

Breakdown of inventories (in B yen):

Now, the exciting stuff:

• Record high operating margin
• The Z9 sold the most first year units of any flagship camera since 2008
  
• Mirrorless is now 80% of Nikon’s sales (note: this would be revenue, not units).
• Nikon plans to ” introduce advanced Z 9 features across the lineup.” (To me, this means AF & video in a Z6iii/Z7iii before March 2025)
• An additional 14+ Z lenses within the next 2 years

Sidenote: this is the first year I recall that Nikon looked like the industry average. Until now, they were DSLR-heavy and entry-level-heavy. Now, both their breakdown of DSLR/mirrorless and average revenue per unit are aligned to the industry.

Rough analysis points:

• If we use CIPA industry averages and we suppose the average mirrorless revenue is ~3x average DSLR (eg. $300 vs. $900), then 43% of Nikon’s units are still entry-level DSLR (~300K units), while ~400K units are mirrorless. (2 years ago, Nikon was doing 250K mirrorless). Lots of flux: some decreased DSLR will translate to entry-level mirrorless, some will disappear, etc.
• I don’t think the Z8 is the only camera we’ll be seeing this year; and I don’t think any new cameras we see will be entry-level.
• I don’t think the Z8 alone could make up for reduced entry-level DSLR volumes; and I don’t think the lots of Z30 sales–which launched last year–would account for increased average revenues, especially considering last year was also the first full Z9 year, and the other Z’s are aging
• The FY2023 averages would have already included lots of Z6ii’s, Z7ii’s, Z9’s, Z30’s, Zfc’s, etc.
• The Z6 series is probably Nikon’s best-selling mirrorless series to date by units.
• Nikon Imaging’s inventory has increased significantly, which could be materials for production
• Nikon is also forecasting a decrease in revenue and operating profit by FY 2025 (which starts in April 2024). If they launched a new popular camera next year, one might expect sustained or high revenues.

Source:

• Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2023
• Progress Report on Medium-Term Management Plan (FY 2022 – 2025)

Make Nikon great again, order the Z8: