It’s February 13th, 2018 and the Nikon D850 is still out of stock in the US


Almost 5 months after shipment began, the Nikon D850 DSLR camera is still out of stock in the US.

Here are the latest shipping dates for existing D850 pre-orders in the top three US stores:

  • Amazon: now shipping to pre-orders placed on January 9th
  • Adorama: now shipping to pre-orders placed on January 23rd
  • B&H: now shipping to pre-orders placed on January 17th

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  • Günter Hofstädter

    actually it is inconceivably that others still waiting for this camera while i already wish they bring some updates to my D850 !

    • Just Me

      Like what?

      • HoneyBadger

        he’s German, he wants not only face detection but also jew detection AF. All jews will be oof.

        • Just Me

          That would be funny but it’s not. :-/

        • geofflivingston

          What an offensive comment. Absolutely in poor taste.

          • HoneyBadger

            How’s that? Lighten up.

            • geofflivingston

              How is it appropriate to make jokes about someone being a Nazi or that they want to exterminate Jews? As a Jew I cringed. Shame on you.

            • HoneyBadger

              I m Jewish, too, so we have the same amount of oppression points…except I don’t see myself as a victim

            • geofflivingston

              Neither do I. If I did I would simply let your atrocious excuse for a joke/comment stand uncontested.

            • Allan

              You’re ethnicity is not relevant. This is a public forum. Some readers, including me, find your comment disgusting and inappropriate.

              I think Gunter made an interesting observation.

            • HoneyBadger

              Yeah and I made a suggestion on how to improve the d850 for the German market. What would you like to see feature wise?

            • Roger S

              I would like to see you go somewhere else

            • This type of comments are now welcome here. Last warning.

            • Spy Black

              Not 😉

            • Ok, no need for a warning, he is gone. This is an old friend that keeps coming back.

            • He is gone…

            • Deleted comments…

            • geofflivingston

              Well done, sir. I will delete mine also, as I really don’t think the thread is worthy of your site.

            • This individual is known with his stupid comments, he was here before and I ban him every time. He creates a new account and comes back. I really don’t understand this behavior, but it kinds of matches his views on life in general. I hope he finds the help he needs because this must be a miserable existence…

            • ipdouglas

              If you do not understand why suppressing Free Speech by banning leads to a person driven to continue whatever behaviour has led to the suppression I am very supprised? Obviously if the behaviour is very offensive then something must be done however because some with delicate sensibilities are offended is so Victorian.

            • It’s very simple – we discuss cameras here, for everything else you should find the appropriate forum. There are nazi forums, places you can curse and call people names, this just won’t happen here, it is my website and I make the rules in order to benefit the community. I am surprised that this is even an issue.

        • Dennis Miller

          HoneyBadger = A- hole… This poster should be banned (and the “comment” removed)

        • TheName

          Please get help for your illness.

          • I took care of him…

        • Ryan Mac

          Vote to ban.

          • Deleted comments, next time he will be banned. First and last warning.

            • T.I.M

              and I thought I was bad….

            • You are – you know that every comment you mention the D900 gets deleted, right?

            • T.I.M

              The D what?
              :o)

            • Allan

              T.I.M, you must be a marine.

            • T.I.M

              You better get me a nice French Champagne bottle the day the D30x30 will be announced….
              :o)

      • I miss A-B / G-M fine tuning in auto modes.

    • Toy let

      It’s just that good, nobody is complaining about being on a list for a Tesla… The D850 is going to be worth its weight in gold in the distant future as the last great DSLR. So it’s worth waiting for…

      • HoneyBadger

        Except Teslas aren’t very good, kinda like a sony with wheels

      • Andrew

        The Nikon D500 and D850 must have caught Nikon (no, not the competition) by surprise. How so? By Nikon stumbling on a simple formula. Pack as much in a camera (OK, let’s forget the D7500 for a moment – what do you expect from a $1,250 camera?) as you can holding nothing back and your loyal fans – including a few Rebels (sorry Canon, no pun intended!) would be enticed to buy. Ah that long waiting list, is it just Nikon enthusiasts buying the D850, or are those switching brands causing these endless out-of-stock issues?

    • scott800

      The D850 has some great options for double exposure, but they need to make it avail for use in live view with an overlay for composition, like on newer canon models.

      • RC Jenkins

        Even though they’re seemingly simple, Nikon doesn’t typically do updates like that. You’ll have to wait for the D860.

  • John Gellings

    That’s some Leica level delays!

    • Spy Black

      If the sensor yield issue rumor is true, then there will NEVER be a time when the D850 will be in stock. At least, not until something supersedes it, or a different production technique is used that works around yield issues, or an entire new sensor is designed.

      • ITN

        It has been widely in stock for several months in Europe. It’s just the US market where it is underpriced and thus in short supply.

        • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

          Wouldn’t say it was underpriced and within touching distance of D850’s competitors Canon 5D MK 4 and Sony A7r Mk 3

          • ITN

            D850 is a higher level product than the 5D IV (substantially greater resolution, fps and full frame 4K video). Canon’s high res model is more expensive and the D850 does both high speed and high res.

            The A7R III is a mirrorless camera so its difficult to compare with DSLRs.

            In Europe the D850 is far more expensive; basically Nikon makes several hundred dollars more money from each European sale than US. Basically it seems the US customers are subvented by European buyers since Nikon Europe and Nikon USA are fully owned by Nikon Japan. In my opinion this is unfair. The product should cost the same everywhere (apart from taxes and customs).

          • ITN

            5D IV costs 600€ less than the D850 in Europe.

            • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

              using camera price buster web site lowest Canon 5D MK m4 is £3229 from park cameras (not sure on validity of DC) verses D850 £3499 so only a small difference £270

            • ITN

              Additionally they offer a 200 pound trade-in bonus when purchasing a 5D Mark IV so the difference between D850 and 5D Mark IV is £470 if you are trading in your old camera. £470 = 529€. In my country it is 600€ partly because of a higher VAT rate than in the UK.

            • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

              Good point – I got my D850 via trade in scheme – of my old D810 and it took a few more ££/$$ from the final bill when I got it in mid October. Certainly is night and day better than my D800.

        • Steven Georges

          Which countries are the most expensive and the least expensive to buy Nikon equipment?
          That would make an interesting article.

          • bbourizk

            Listed at most places at $5299 in Australia.
            Can be had for $5000 which is what I paid for mine.

        • Spy Black

          I don’t know about underpriced, simply highly attractive and, more importantly, much higher demand quntities in the US, so yield issues may still be a factor.

    • BG

      That’s not what we meant when we said that if they dump the low end cameras, Nikon would become like Leica…

      • This is what I said a few days ago….

        • jmb2560

          Perhaps Nikon is going to open their own stores… 😉

  • NorthPol

    This camera is still on high demand, but everything else from Nikon is for sale these days. I have never seen so many complete systems being sold at the time, on the used market, in favor of switching to the other system. It’s easy to guess, which one. Nikon, you’d better hurry up with something new…

    • Shutterbug

      Where did you hear they are refusing to build a FF mirrorless? It’s common knowledge by now that virtually every source is reporting Nikon will have a FF and APS-C mirrorless announced in 2018 barring any unforseen issues. Even Nikon themselves have commented on FF mirrorless.

      • NorthPol

        Sorry, refusing so far, I meant…

        • Shutterbug

          Probably more like waiting for the right time to enter the market – large sensor MILC’s up until very recently have been pretty bad. This way Nikon can learn from all the mistakes – at least that is what I assume they are doing :).

          • NorthPol

            I can agree with you, but it’s scary to see the local ads, there is a flood of Nikon gear, like never before. I didn’t pay to the Canon stuff, it could be similar..

            • PhilK

              Whereas I’ve seen a large influx of models like D700 hitting craigslist, I assume most of them are buying D850s after a long wait.

              People who feel the need to tell people in a used equipment ad that they are switching to another brand always make me raise an eyebrow.

              Because it’s beyond unnecessary, it probably undermines their ability to sell the stuff they are supposedly trying to sell. It’s like selling a car along with the comments “because I’m tired of all the breakdowns, so I’m switching to [X]”.

          • Eric

            Assuming they actually learn from those mistakes, as opposed to making another Nikon 1 style system.

      • Allen_Wentz

        “Common knowledge?” Not common knowledge to me, but perhaps I am just naive.

        • ITN

          Well, no one who is allowed to talk knows when Nikon will launch those products but Nikon have repeatedly stated that they are working on new mirrorless products and full frame has been mentioned. They also have many patents on large sensor mirrorless lenses, camera and sensor technology.

    • Claude Mayonnaise

      I honestly believe once Canon and Nikon enter the full frame mirrorless market they will gain a lot of Sony users with the grass is always greener mentality. Nowadays people seem to switch camera systems if they dislike the color of a body or if it smells funny to them. It will be as if they were always in the game. If they get it right that is.

      • PhilK

        The lust for the newest thing on the market has gone off the rails in recent years. People wait in line for days for the latest iPhone model, no matter what the specs are, no matter how little difference it makes in their lives, it has become just a status symbol.

        It seems counterintuitive but when Apple raised the price of their latest flagship model dramatically, it sold FAR more than their previous flagship model.

        I know people working basically minimum-wage jobs who nonetheless purchased an ~$1100 iPhone X.

        Logic is not what is driving such purchases.

  • T.I.M

    D850 still out of stock in USA, maybe I should return mine.
    I know, I’m a nice guy.

    • Toy let

      yeah right

    • Sawyerspadre

      You could get the D900

  • Toy let

    it’s so worth the wait…

    • T.I.M

      I know what you mean, been waiting 6 years 8 months 17 days 3 hours and 18mn for my D30x30 pre-order!

  • scott800

    Remember, if you are an NPS member you don’t need to wait more than a week or two (unless you need more than one). We had ours shipped to local camera store for pickup.

  • Shutterbug

    No too surprising when you have a body this good at such a low price (relative to the competition – Looking at you, overpriced 5DM4). Good for Nikon, but not so good for those still waiting. Believe me, it’s worth the wait. They seem to have extremely tight QC on these new bodies which could be why production is slower.

    • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

      For a semi pro camera the price is matched with Canon 5D MK 4 and 5DR/S and the Sony equivalent A7R MK3 in a declining photo market and pricing it higher (e.g., £4000) will take it out of reach of more users / the main customer – upgraders from D800 / D810. Best to sell it competitively priced to sell more in units and to reap more ££/$$ in side lines like lenses, flash, D850 accessories, etc.

      • Shutterbug

        The only thing matched by the 5DM4 and 5DSR is the price 🙂 You need both of those Canon cameras plus a 7DM2 before you start approaching the capabilities of the D850 – that’s pretty amazing. The 5D bodies appear grossly overpriced next to a D850. More to your point though I think Nikon was smart pricing it where they did – I’m sure they are making plenty of margin and they sell every one they make.

        • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

          True on that – the D850 is the best DSLR that Nikon has ever made – looking forward to what Nikon brings in its Nikon 2 Mirrorless system.

  • AnotherView

    Well, the D850 is the best DSLR in the world, so no surprise there. Maybe I should be embarrassed that I got mine the day before the official release date???

  • bobgrant

    I have a friend working at B&H, so I’ll just say this: The D850 is insanely popular. He says that Nikon USA is SHOCKED at the demand. Considering that it’s such an expensive camera, I think a lot of people are surprised. All I can say is this is the best camera I’ve ever owned. It quite literally does everything you might want, from sports to landscape and then delivers amazing high ISO and AF ability. Nikon really nailed it.

    • Thom Hogan

      How is that possible?

      • bobgrant

        How is what possible?

        • Thom Hogan

          How is it possible that you’re so out of touch with your customer base that you can’t accurately gauge demand. This isn’t rocket science. It’s customer engagement.

          • ITN

            The camera is widely in stock in Europe and has been for some time. So the question really is whether Nikon could have made more money simply by asking $4000-$4500 for it in the US also. Perhaps they should have done just that and they could then have used the extra money to recruit better customer service people to solve customer problems with various products.

          • bobgrant

            Rocket science is easier that market research, Thom. Nikon and many other companies have plenty of failures to support that fact.

          • ZoetMB

            I’d approach it another way: assuming the friend at B&H is working from real data, how is it possible that the D850 is “insanely popular” and Nikon is still predicting sales of 500,000 fewer DSLR units than last fiscal?

            Either their other bodies aren’t selling at all or not being able to ship is killing unit sales or it’s not as popular as everyone claims it is.

            • Thom Hogan

              The D850 would never be a camera that would make up that large a unit volume. My belief is that in a good year, 250k total units for the year would be good at that price point. And the serial numbers seem to show Nikon is somewhat below that point.

              So it’s your first point. In Europe, not only is the D850 not selling like it is in the US, but the D3xxx, D5xxx, and D7xxx are completely dead in the water. Dealers in the US are making the same complaints. Basically, what else sells here are the D500 and D750 on discount, D7200 on significant discount, and maybe the D3400 at wicked low prices.

              There’s also plentiful refurbished and gray market availability of bodies going back as much as three generations (e.g. D7100), which tells me that Nikon dumped a lot of inventory somewhere and booked those as “sales.”

          • Tony Beach

            Isn’t getting adequate supply of the sensor a primary reason for the backlog? Seems to me that if Nikon could have made and delivered more than enough D850 cameras by now they would have regardless of whether they knew they could sell them or not.

            • Thom Hogan

              Overall, yes, sensor supply has been an issue. But there are plenty of other issues, too.

              The higher price in Europe means you can find the camera in stock there. Remember, I wrote on announcement that Nikon had underpriced the camera in the US.

              But then the fact that Nikon can’t move inventory from one subsidiary to another due to their stupid regional subsidiary policies is another issue for them. There can be boxes of units sitting unsold elsewhere but not available in the US.

              I’ve said it before: bad management.

            • AlexG

              For me is more like they underpriced abit it in US while they overpriced it by alot in Europe.

            • PhilK

              I have long disagreed with this concept of blaming Nikon for not making it easy to move inventory from market to market.

              Perhaps they have unique S/N’s for each market area. Why? To cut down on grey-market side-selling.

              People who think grey market is a good idea for a manufacturer to allow have a screw loose.

            • Thom Hogan

              They DO have unique serial numbers. And yes, it is to combat gray market. However, given that Nikon owns the subsidiaries for most of the world and strongly controls the flow of cameras to the very few regional distributors that are left, gray market is a problem of their own making.

              I’m not going to go into details, but Nikon uses gray market to dump product. Effectively, they compete against themselves. Moreover, they’ve been known to use gray market channel stuffing to “make their numbers.”

            • PhilK

              Grey market is not “a problem of their own making”.

              Go look at B&H and see the thousands of products listed as “imported” or whatever weasely word they currently use to denote grey market products.

              It is rampant throughout the entire industry, with almost every manufacturer.

            • Thom Hogan

              This is like saying someone is not guilty of cheating at cards because the other players are doing it.

              Nikon has a long and quite devilish history with gray market. There have even been instances where Nikon themselves sold gray market directly to a customer in the US, competing with their own dealer network here on a contract.

              It’s a dumping strategy. And Nikon has used it probably more than anyone else to “make numbers.” They offload inventory into mostly SE Asia, disown the warranty, and get all that extra metal off their books completely. A whole sub-industry in Hong Kong built up from this, and it was going gangbusters due to cheap loans from China to support the purchases.

              Nikon doesn’t have to create gray market product. They have 100% control now over whether they dump into gray or not, because they own the subsidiaries in most of the world. The few exceptions are in the Middle East, South Africa, a couple of other places where they can also control the distribution numbers if they want to.

              So, I repeat my assertion: gray market doesn’t exist unless Nikon (and yes, other camera companies) dump their inventory outside of their subsidiary system.

            • PhilK

              I never wrote they were “not guilty”, what I wrote was that the problem is utterly rampant in the industry and Nikon is certainly not unique, nor is the problem necessarily “of their own making”.

              There was a time in the camera business where the vast majority of grey market product came about due to authorized resellers selling the product sideways in violation of their dealership contract. You cannot just automatically blame the manufacturer for that kind of activity.

              Do you actually think it’s surprising that some dealers might succumb to the temptation to, for example, surreptitiously ship product in bulk to places like Brazil (perhaps via intermediaries) that have gigantic import duties on camera equipment? And in the meantime earn legitimate volume discounts from the manufacturer, making them more competitive in their home market?

              Now I grant you, the old scenario may have been at least partially enabled by the fact that product distribution wasn’t digitized and computerized very much back when I was in the photo retail business, lists of serial numbers in shipments may have been scribbled down by hand on the packing list and perhaps not saved anywhere else, making it much harder to track down the source of grey products.

              But this general idea that it is automatically the manufacturer’s fault that product gets into non-official distribution/retail channels is not necessarily so cut-and-dried.

      • How is what possible? I reported something similar months ago, why would that be impossible? I believe it, based on the info I received from multiple sources.

        • Allan

          Nikon knows how many D800 and D810 cameras they sold. How hard could it have been to predict that the D850 would be very popular? … not very hard. It isn’t surprising that the D850 is in demand in this first period of sales.

          • It sells much better than the D800/D810 – that’s the whole point of the surprise 🙂

            • Allan

              Do you have the numbers?

            • No, do you? I have reported numerous times that the D850 sales were very good based on info from multiple sources. We just had another reader confirm that, why would that be so hard to believe? Do you think we are all lying?

            • Allan

              One scenario: We are selling more D850s than we expected to sell.

              Second scenario: We are selling more D850s than we sold D800s and D810s.

              Unless we have solid numbers, we don’t know.

            • All I know is what I was told by multiple retailers – the D850 sold very good, much better than they expected and better than the a7r3.

            • Adam Brown

              I heard pre-orders were stronger for the D850 than the a7riii but sustained sales have been better on the Sony. The Sony has been consistently higher ranked on Amazon’s sales chart in the USA.
              Seems the D850 has a huge initial deluge of sales due to pent up demand among the Nikon base.

            • Probably because Nikon could not deliver?

            • Adam Brown

              Maybe. No clue how Amazon does their sales rankings. In fact, today the D850 was 1 ahead of the a7riii in the rankings. The evidence I’ve seen suggests pretty similar sales numbers which makes sense given the similar price and similar degree of industry buzz.

            • Amazo sales ranking does make any sense to me, not sure why some websites still use it as a reference – they use some weird algorithm based on sale moving averages I assume. They are also updated hourly, os if I big company orders 10 cameras, that model will get bumped up… Their categories are also weird – they have a DSLR but not mirrorless section in their top sales rankings…

            • Adam Brown

              They have an ILC section.. that’s the most helpful. But yes, don’t know if they are counting shipped units or ordered units… don’t know if they are looking at it as a daily number, hourly, weekly, etc…. I wouldn’t use it as any type of exact indicator. But as a general ballpark, it can give you a rough idea of sales popularity.

            • PhilK

              Not only does it not make sense, I would think manufacturers would be not very happy about Amazon broadcasting competitively sensitive data like that to everyone.

              Because all the usual authorized resellers are probably under NDAs from most manufacturers about publishing such things.

              Otherwise we’d have numbers being published from all over the place.

            • I agree, when I see a website using Amazon’s rankings as a reference, I just shake my head… I tried to make a post about it a while back:

              https://photorumors.com/2016/11/04/amazon-best-selling-cameras-latest-bcn-sales-ranking-and-cipa-report/

            • now I don’t even see the Sony a7r3 in the rankings, while the D850 is 23rd:

              http://amzn.to/2BunXdd

            • Adam Brown
            • So the question is if they are side by side, why the Sony a7r3 is not present at all in the overall camera rankings? Like I said, I would not pay any attention to Amazon’s ranking, they are useless and I never use them as a reference.

            • Adam Brown

              ??? In overall digital camera rankins, I’m seeing the D850 as 29 and the A7riii as 30 — side by side.
              Of course, they are behind the mini digital Kingear, lol. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1924b03f125a97ccba0f781eeb7a2e98c621064a6460315dd7c6ace3b9a6c199.jpg

            • Strange, I did not see it in the link I posted above…

            • Thom Hogan

              @disqus_kYShTGbHpp:disqus You bring up another point: it is almost impossible to bring up the same results twice from Amazon. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are using this with browsing history to try to suggest what you should buy ;~).

            • Probably why I don’t see the Sony a7r3 in my ranking 🙂

            • PhilK

              Yes, and they have a history of that kind of manipulation.

              They got sued over price manipulation based on an individual customer’s history years ago.

            • Thom Hogan

              I would never trust Amazon’s sales charts. You’re talking about an organization that shifts pricing to make a sale. With no clear disclosure on how they build those sales charts, I simply wouldn’t trust them. You also don’t know how much inventory is being pushed into their channel by each vendor, which would influence the numbers, too.

            • I agree

            • Adam Brown

              Agreed… that’s why I wouldn’t rely upon it beyond getting a very rough picture

            • Davo

              Scenario three: scenario one plus we have sensor yield issues on supply side so we can’t even supply to our projected demand, let alone the better than expected demand.

            • AlexG

              That would not be so unrealistic scenario, especially considering that in Europe the price of the D850 is quite a bit higher than D800 and D810 used to be when they were introduced and most importantly, the official stores have shortage of bodies while grey market imports -without official warranty- have no shortage of bodies. Ebay is full of them.

            • Thom Hogan

              I believe it to be scenario one.

            • BG

              I’ll happily believe that the D850 sells very well. Obviously it does. But without numbers, how is it possible to tell if it sells better than e.g. the D800+D810?

            • Obviously the people who told me that have the numbers, I don’t.

            • AlexG

              No , i do not think you are lying. I think you are excited for a product you bought yourself and find it amazing, which is great, but since noone can provide numbers it is not possible to know if D850 has got more sales than D800, D810 or is just more hyped.
              Many people need to defend their purchases, they exaggerate capabilities, overlook weaknesses, attack personally people who do not have the same opinion/admiration about the talked item and they many times exaggerate the popularity of their chosen product.

            • bobgrant

              My source at B&H is just a retail connection. But up until 2016 I had a family member with Nikon. Obviously he still “knows” people at Nikon USA. All I can say is this: Nikon knew the D850 might sell very well and certainly hoped it would. But there are production limits for ANY product, which when countered with increased production, actually injure bottom lines. Nikon also knows that when they have a hit product, waiting periods usually don’t cost sales. In other words, most buyers will STILL buy the D850 even if a long wait is involved. I’m confident in what I was told. While Nikon certainly threw in the kitchen sink to create the D850, demand has been surprising. A perfect storm of incredibly enthusiastic reviews, both professional and amateur fueled demand. When people come to near universal consensus that a product is the “best” we will often see demand of this type.

            • AlexG

              We will not know for sure until we get some numbers if the D850 is more successful than D800.

              It’s true though that Nikon did more aggressive attempt in creating hype. Felt like reading Sony product’s reviews.

            • bobgrant

              When the D800 came out, I grabbed one early. Very good camera, but the AF system could still miss and was often dodgy. The D810 was a nice upgrade for me, no speed demon, but better and the AF improved. The d850, in my view, can’t be hyped enough. It’s a nearly ideal blend of technical performance and solid ergonomics. It doesn’t just do everything well; it’s actually class leading in many respects. So the “hype” was pretty damn accurate. We can “blame” Nikon for designing the d850, but the hype has been a fair response to an outstanding product. A D850s with a deeper buffer and better video AF will be most welcome. There’s always room for better!

            • AlexG

              Let’s hope. That would be nice!

            • Thanks, keep us informed in the future.

            • Allan

              I have a question.

              What percentage of Nikon’s business is from the United States?

            • Thom Hogan

              Nikon doesn’t break that out by products any more that I know of. Last year, 24% of their overall revenues came from the US.

            • My guess would have been 1/3

            • Thom Hogan

              Nope. That ship left the building a long time ago. And actually, I need to edit what I wrote: it’s North America, not US that’s 24%. So include Canada in that number.

            • Tony Beach

              Ship sailed; Elvis left the building.

            • I think I made myself clear – I reported the info I received from several major US retailers. Other people have heard/reported similar information, so I believe to be true. My purchase of the D850 has nothing to do with the reporting I do here on NR. You must be confusing me with some other rumors website. Also I have done plenty of Nikon critique over the past 10 years.

            • AlexG

              Rumors until we see actual numbers… that is the only clear thing, numbers, and i have seen none, the rest are rumors.

              As for the part where i confuse you, i do not, i find most rumor sites borderline ridiculous and unworthy so i do not read them, let alone post in them.

              Lastly, i am Nikon user since over 25 years, i interested mostly in what Nikon brings.

            • We will never see the real numbers and yes, after all this is a rumor site and with best of my ability I try to post reliable info.

            • Allan

              And you do an excellent job.

              Thanks, Peter.

            • Thanks for being a reader!

            • AlexG

              Rumors are good enough for future predictions. For past and current to be facts, i prefer numbers!

              You do indeed and that’s why i am here.

            • You want numbers? Here there are hot off the press:

              https://dc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/1106573.html

              Map Camera is a major store in Japan. The best selling camera in January is the Nikon D850. #2 is the Sony A7r3. Exactly what I have been saying….

            • AlexG

              Thank you.

              I did not doubt for a moment that Nikon with bigger user base tied to their system (lenses, accessories ) would sell more D850 than Sony would sell a7Riii. If that moment comes, Nikon will be in huge problems.

              What i have doubts about, is that D850 sells more than D800. It’s a great camera but not as D800 was for its time.

            • Well, my prediction for the future are different than yours, we should talk again in 5 years.

            • Thom Hogan

              I’m not convinced that it does. By my count, it’s selling well, but not as well as the D800 series did in the first six months after introduction.

            • My initial report was about the a7r3, I don’t even know who introduced the D800 in the mix… welcome to the Internet 🙂 Don you have any numbers of D850 vs a7r3 6 months later?

            • Thom Hogan

              I won’t see A7R3 numbers for a couple of months yet. I don’t have a good source for monthly numbers for Sony, only quarterly/annual.

            • I was talking more about numbers from stores.

          • AlexG

            I agree and i want to add: Nikon knows how many D800, D810 and D850 they sold. If D850 is so successful, why not share some numbers? How hard is that..

            • ITN

              They are sharing numbers; they gave a press release stating that in the US market they outsold Canon and Sony for full frame cameras in the US market in December, mentioning the D850 especially but also D750. Also their financial reports look good.

            • AlexG

              Thanks for your reply. I would be so interested to know D800, D810 and D850 number of sales.

            • ZoetMB

              No the financial reports didn’t look good. Profits were up due to cost cutting, but they’re projecting to sell 500,000 fewer DSLR’s and 620,000 fewer lenses than last fiscal. What’s good about that?

            • ITN

              The profit is the purpose of existence of the company. Number of cameras sold is irrelevant. There are far too many cameras already in the world, used by people who haven’t got the first clue about how to make a decent photograph nor the will to learn. What Nikon is doing is reducing their effort to sell cameras to non-photographers and focusing on making cameras for people who actually do know their way around photography. There are necessarily few of those around, as within any art or discipline. But those few people are in photography for the long haul and make a stable market for Nikon and other manufacturers. Consumers move onto the next gadget, there is no point or purpose in chasing those.

            • This is how I see things too.

            • Thom Hogan

              No. Building value is the purpose of a company. Now, yes, profit can be part of that, as it puts cash (assets) into the company that can be used to generate more, or distributed to those that hold the company’s shares.

              Nikon cannot afford to just sell D850’s. They can’t afford to sell just D500, D750, D850, and D5 cameras. They built a company (added asset value) to build 25m+ camera/lens units a year. They aren’t even close to that any more, which is one reason why they’re having to write down the China plant. But that’s not their only overcapacity. When assets stop producing return, they no longer have value. Nikon is sitting on a heaping pile of asset value, and another that’s not looking so good, either: Goodwill value.

            • ITN

              Selling cameras to people who aren’t interested in photography causes unnecessary industrial waste and pollution (damaging the planet’s environment) and pollutes the internet with poor quality work, making it hard to find the good work. Thus the value of such an enterprise can be seen as damaging or negative.

              Manufacturing cameras to enthusiastic and experienced photographers makes life richer as we see good photography as a result of that. This part of the market is intact even if Nikon’s market share has declined. Success in the D850 launch indicates Nikon is and may remain a player in this part of the photography market.

              In the early days Nikon was focused more on the professional market and they may return to that. That’s a good thing in my view. Because of the excessive image pollution we experience today, making photography a bit more scarce (but improving that segment) is a good thing.

              The key is that to remain in existence as an (well, relatively) independent company, Nikon need to scale down the camera business in volume while remaining profitable. This is exactly what they appear to be doing. And I find it a very good thing.

              But legally speaking the purpose of a company is to make money for its shareholders, whether that is a good thing to have in law is another matter but it is what it is.

            • ZoetMB

              No, that’s a myth. There is nothing in U.S. law (and Nikon is a Japanese company anyway) that requires a CEO to make their primary responsibility to the shareholders. That’s just what they teach in b-schools.

              I just read an article that was about an Apple shareholder who insisted that Apple do an ROI analysis when they do things for the environment. He was told by Apple’s CEO to sell his stock if he was unhappy.

            • ITN

              Perhaps not in US law but Nikon isn’t an American company. In my country it definitely is in the law.

            • PhilK

              Of course a giant company like Apple is not going to make a U-turn because one random dude with $1000 in Apple stock thinks they should.

              But if that shareholder was a large institution with a sizeable stake, they’d probably be invited to a personal meeting with Tim Cook to discuss it. 😉

              The whole “shareholder first” thing seems to have become particularly trendy the last 20-40 years in the USA, and I’m personally no fan of this trend.

            • PhilK

              Also – there are some corporate laws that actually do stipulate this shareholder responsibility thing.

              Craigslist lost a shareholder lawsuit over exactly this, because a rogue individual shareholder decided to sell their stake to ebay (for a lot of money, making them instantly very wealthy) and ebay ended up becoming an internal trojan-horse inside the company, trying to destroy it.

              But because ebay bought the shares legally, and because of the corporate laws in the state they are incorporated in (Delaware) stipulating their responsibility to investors, Craigslist was forced to capitulate to them in various ways.

              Craigslist’s position was that they had a corporate mission to serve the community, and ebay argued that was invalid, that their prime responsibility was maximize their shareholder’s return on investment.

              Craigslist lost.

              Now some states (eg California) have introduced a new type of corporate type, a type of “public benefit corporation”, where in such a case Craigslist could have successfully defended their position. But that didn’t exist at the time and in the state that they are legally incorporated in.

            • Eric Calabros

              Tell me about what that CEO is doing about human rights concerns his Chinese customers have.

            • Thom Hogan

              Uh, no, they’re not sharing numbers. NPD doesn’t allow those using their numbers for assertions to actually publish the numbers.

              Moreover, Canon, Nikon, and Sony have all cherry-picked the NPD numbers in the past year, sharing the “we’re number one” claim based upon a set of numbers that allow them to justify that claim for a specific category, time period, and unit/dollar amount. Just got an email that I sold a D500 book. So somewhere in the last few seconds, I had the top selling Nikon D500 book on the market ;~) Woo hoo!

              As for the financial reports, you may have noted that I didn’t write about the latest one. I cannot get Nikon’s reported numbers to add up over time. Now, that may be something I’m missing in my calculations and analysis and I’ll continue to try to figure it out. But we have a long history of Japanese companies obfuscating data in their financials to hide bad news.

              I’d be careful about reading too much into Nikon’s financials. Things always look really good right up to the moment where something gets caught out and the company has to come clean in Japan.

            • Tell me the last time a camera company shared numbers about their sales.

            • AlexG

              Without numbers everyone can say what they want.

            • I talk to people that have numbers…

            • AlexG

              Ok, that makes sense then. You cannot blame me for being sceptical when all i see is anything but numbers.

              Thank you for the clarification.

            • Well, the info I got from a few stores may not be an accurate description of the entire market, but we will never get anything more.

            • AlexG

              And i am thankful for the fact that you give us information, i really appreciate it.

              I just cannot stand reading in each release that it selling better than the previous, especially without numbers. If it was like that it would not be a declining market…

              Last comment is not about you Peter.

            • No problem, I understand – last comment 🙂

            • Thom Hogan

              Technically, Nikon and Canon have shared unit volume numbers by category for decades. They haven’t shared individual model numbers likely because they worry that this would give the other information about how to target them. Yet both I’m pretty sure subscribe to NPD and other data sources that tell that data anyway ;~).

              Which means that they don’t want you and I to know what they know ;~). That’s never a good sign in a business.

            • PhilK

              Well, usually the research organization that has such detailed estimates wants organizations to pay several thousand dollars for the privilege of reading their detailed reports.

              And for obvious reasons they have copyrights on those reports and those that purchase them agree not to share them with anyone else or else their market for them will disappear.

              This is no different than how people have marketed academic and scientific research papers for years.

          • ITN

            It is easy to make the assumption that since their other products aren’t selling well, the D850 would not, either.

            • Allan

              See Thom’s comment below.

              Just because KeyMission, D5600, D3400, etc., weren’t selling well does not predict that a D850 would not sell well

            • ITN

              D5, D500, etc. none of them sold well even though they are in many ways better products for practical photography than the D850. The customers on online forums such as this one demanded a D500 (or D400) but relatively few actually bought it (fewer than D810). The D5 is better than either of them in many ways but few bought it.

              Nikon assume that their customers do their research and buy what actually works well for the customers’ applications. So it’s understandable that they’d think that the overspecified but underdelivering D850 wouldn’t sell well. But customers bought the specs and hype and seem happy.

            • Thom Hogan

              The D5 certainly isn’t a big seller. It might not have hit 25k units so far. The D500 is a different story, as it’s now into the hundreds of k.

            • ITN

              Roland’s database shows about 20k for D5, 100k for D3. D500 is at 90k, D300 at 400k. So the rate of decline in sales for these “high fps” pro models is similar irrespective of FX or DX. An important reason for the decline in these models may be that when the D3 and D300 came to the market, there were fewer options and no high resolution model. Many people who bought the D3 actually wanted a full frame Nikon, it wasn’t that they wanted a high speed full frame large body but *any* full frame Nikon DSLR. Now that there is the D750/D850 the majority of FX customers prefer these, and what is left with the D5 are the people who really want specifically this type of a camera. And there are only a few people who seem to want it, even though in my opinion this is the best Nikon camera measured in the ability to “get the shot”. Go figure.

              What seems to be continuing to sell well are the D8x0 and D750, as well as the D7500 (and in absolute numbers the D500 sells well just not as well as its predecessor). I think this is now Nikon’s core market and what they will try to enhance and compete most fiercely in. The combined numbers of these models seem very decent. Although the D810 and D850 sold at a much lower rate than the D800, when the D800 came on the market there was no D6x0 or D850, or Df for that market. If we add all the FX models combined together (ignoring the D5) then this segment is relatively unaffected by Nikon’s decline.

              The D5’s sales are negatively affected by the decline in the stock photography and sports photography market as well. People are leaving sports photography and photojournalism as a profession. And Nikon’s entry level models are not competitive because of the relatively poor LVAF/video AF, and the Snapbridge disaster. I think Nikon is not going to try to win back the D3x00 type buyer but they will try to revive D5 type camera sales. The 180-400 is an indication Nikon is very serious about the professional supertele market.

            • Thom Hogan

              This—pro and prosumer enthusiast—has always been Nikon’s core market. It’s where legacy also means the most, too. You can trace this all the way back to the N8008/F4, which is about when Nikon started having true small/big body pairings at the high end.

              Every decade or two, Nikon makes a bum rush for consumer volume, succeeds for awhile, can’t sustain it, and ends up back with the pro/prosumer gear driving them. The problem is that’s not a very big business. And Nikon’s overbuilt for the consumer volume now.

              But let’s say we’re correct, and that D7500, D500, D750, D850, and D5 are basically it for Nikon. They botched the D7500 update. They upset D7200 owners by not doing an AF-P update. They don’t have a full set of DX lenses for D7500 and D500 owners that are important for them to keep and not lose to Fujifilm. They don’t have a decent 50mm. They haven’t updated the 200mm f/4. The list of things they haven’t done to make this core audience stay with them goes on and on. Plus they’ve cut back on customer service.

              Given a two year iteration cycle, the units you’re talking about in the pro/prosumer range are about 500k units/year max. That’s a boutique, specialized maker, not a strong CES product producer. That’s also 3-4% of the ILC camera market. Unlike Olympus, Nikon doesn’t have the support of a strong, larger group.

            • Tony Beach

              I always shake my head when it comes to a camera like the D500. Years of naysayers saying a D300s successor was going to be a flop, then pointing to FX cameras like the D850 that have fewer sales as the answer. I wonder how many more D500 cameras Nikon could sell if they actually made a few decent (price and performance) DX primes to use on it.

            • Thom Hogan

              My point for the last 10 years exactly.

              Nikon clearly tried to move as many of those folks to FX for whatever reason. But they also have clear leakage to Fujifilm from DX, as well, so I think your point (and mine ;~) is correct.

          • Thom Hogan

            It’s not quite that simple. The D800 series sold in the 3##k units in its lifetime. The D810 sold maybe 250k units in its life to date. So based upon that how many would you expect to sell? The yearly average seems to suggest 125k is the mark to hit, which is 10k unit/month.

            Moreover, with cameras, front-end sales run higher than last-leg sales. There’s some evidence that Nikon may be approaching 50k units on the D850 after six months of production, so they’re near the 10k unit/month mark as far as I can tell.

            What seems to be wrong is that their balance of where the units are going is wrong (again). And some of that is the pricing differentials. I wrote when they announced the D850 that they had priced it too low in the US compared to other subsidiaries, and guess what, that’s where it’s out of stock.

            Where does my knowledge come from? Surveying customers. Plus years of being in charge of product line management at many places. Some of good predictions is data driven, some is just having a good sense of customers.

            To me, the D850 is doing what I would expect it to do. This is a critical line for Nikon, as it is right square in their well-to-do-enthusiast base. They’ve managed to do about two-year iterations on this product (2012, 2014, 2017) that have made each generation of the D8xx camera distinctly and clearly better than the preceding one, which also promotes upgrading.

            One problem for Nikon is that they have no marketing energy trying to pull in Sony FE or Canon EF users. The D850 is a class-leading product. But it’s only word-of-mouth that is promoting that, and in this fan-boy, fake news era of the Internet, it’s easy for that to get lost without a company doing the right thing.

            That they haven’t actually documented things like what the focus stack function is actually doing, what the Auto Picture Control is doing, and more, is just silly.

            • This is so true:

              “One problem for Nikon is that they have no marketing energy trying to pull in Sony FE or Canon EF users. The D850 is a class-leading product. But it’s only word-of-mouth that is promoting that, and in this fan-boy, fake news era of the Internet, it’s easy for that to get lost without a company doing the right th ing.”

            • AlexG

              Nikon has far less chances pulling Sony FE or Canon EF users than the chances to lose customers to them. The cause is simple and has to do with the fact that noone is thinking Nikon when it comes to video. Secondary internet/social media file sharing.
              We have crossed the point where a camera is just a tool to capture still images and Nikon keeps pushing only in the photo capturing part of those tools called cameras.

            • Thom Hogan

              Elsewhere, I talked about Nikon’s inability to market. Your comment is related. Nikon put back the Atomos control in the D850. They even made a separate menu item selection for it. Is that mentioned anywhere in their marketing?

              The D850 isn’t a video camera because Nikon hasn’t told anyone it’s a video camera. They spent more time promoting 8K time-lapse, which isn’t actually a feature of the camera (to get 8K you have to shoot using Interval, then put the pieces together yourself).

              The D850 is a credible video camera. It even supports both FX and DX crop at 4K, giving you an option you don’t have on many other products. Why is it I’m typing this and someone at Nikon marketing isn’t trumpeting this?

            • AlexG

              Nope it is not known, atleast i have not seen it.

              It is not enough to make a great product, rich in features. You have to introduce it to the correct customer group.

              Nikon’s big problem except from marketing is the usability of their cameras as video cameras from people who use social media. Especially targeting to satisfy the needs of this target group, you entering a circle where you get more sales which on their own will promote your products and bring back more sales, creating a circle where marketing is free and really efficient.

              But Nikon’s cameras are not as usable for creating this kind of content as cameras from other manufacturers are and secondly for posting in the social media. (I am not using social media as creator but as a consumer, i find a useful part in some of them, mostly as source of getting knowledge and sometimes entertainment but despise them for many reasons).

        • Davo

          I think he might mean how is it possible that Nikon can be shocked at the demand for one of their strongest core product.
          It speaks of the failure of Nikon’s bean counting management at understanding their customers and also leaving money on the table for the unnecessary aggressive pricing. At least that’s my take on what he means.

          • But this is exactly my point – even Nikon is shocked how well the D850 sells. Predicting future sales is not an exact science.

            • Wade Marks

              Agreed…I’m tired of people trying to be an armchair CEO. Predicting future sales is not only difficult, but esp. so when everyone is saying that it’s in a declining market.

              Then there is of course the logistics of manufacturing a complex product.

              It’s easy to criticize, but most have never managed a company or a supply chain, or engineered a complex new product.

              Bottom line: Nikon created a huge winner, which many would have predicted was not possible at this point in the camera market. Good for them and good for us consumers.

            • Correct, and I am not the only one saying that.

            • Allen_Wentz

              I do not fault Nikon for D850 short supply. That is the nature of tech properly done. I give Nikon nothing but credit for almost every aspect of the D500 and D850.

            • Davo

              I’m guessing that your comments were aimed at me.
              But all fair points.
              Although I stand by some of the points I made in regards to Nikon somewhat loosing touch with their core customer demands.

            • AlexG

              I agree about the difficulty of the logistics etc etc.
              Other companies do better though than missing the chance of satisfying demand with whatever that means. (Less sales, giving chance to other companies to catch up to the game, model is already not that new when it finally hits the stores in larger quantities to name a few).
              But when a company, in a declining market time, in a lower sales time, is giving higher dividends to their share holders they have to cut from resources that have to do with production and stock of their items that are for sale.

              I think there is alot more into the “shortage” thing than just missed culculation of demand.

              What was not possible at the this point in the market?

            • Why do we need to look for conspiracies under every single thing Nikon does or doesn’t do?

            • AlexG

              Do you consider conspiracy the possibility that Nikon’s D850 shortage is not just coming from high demand?

            • This is nothing new – the D800 was out of stock for 6 months, the Leica M10 was out of stock for a year…

            • AlexG

              The time they are not in stock does not speak of the real number of sales.

            • That is true, but if you remember my first report from October last year I was talking about pre-orders.

            • Thom Hogan

              And yet, most companies with on-going product lines do a very good job of just that: predicting future sales of those products. It’s the totally new stuff that is difficult. Or when you make fullscale changes that the customer may or may not like (you don’t know, as they haven’t seen those changes yet).

              Nikon predicting KeyMission sales would have been a crap shoot. They had no experience in a fast moving business. Nikon predicting D850 sales should have been easy: they have a long history of understanding prosumer iteration adaption, and it would be easy enough to assess demand through surveying existing customers.

            • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

              How did they predict or not predict the possible uptake of the canned DL series ?

            • Thom Hogan

              We don’t know, and Nikon themselves have obfuscated why they cancelled the DL series. Canon has recently thrown shade at Nikon with their pronouncements about how the G X line is doing. My own surveys showed that there was plenty of demand.

              My guess is that top management didn’t buy into DL, and lower management had nothing to show that it would actually sell.

            • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

              Good point of view – although if Sony could sell x amount of Rx10/Rx100’s, amount of Canon GX line along with the Pany Line and from the historic point of view how many units Nikon sold of Coolpix A then there should be sufficient backing / evidence for the DL / Coolpix A replacement to thrive / compete in this market.

              It’s a missed opportunity for Nikon not to do it or not to do it at the same time of the Nikon 1 launch having a big fan fare at the same time .They could initially use the same sensors first of all and then acquire updated sensors in the next release of DL 24-85, etc, etc, etc, etc.

            • Davidvictormeldrew Idontbeliev

              sorry for harping on would preferred to use / only one imagery system from one company with same workflow and software + accessories, i.e., Nikon not 4, e.g., Sony for Rx100, Panasonic for FZ1000 and lite M4/3 mirrorless system, Nikon for DSLR, etc

            • Davo

              Of course not. But if they don’t get the demand right for one of their strongest products, it doesn’t bode well for product segments they are trying to enter (ie. Mirrorless).
              Recent history have them grossly overestimating the action camera market (KeyMission) and imo underestimating the demand for enthusiast compacts (DL’s).
              I really hope they get mirrorless right.

            • If they did not estimate the D850 demand correctly it doesn’t mean that the camera cannot be a good seller.

            • Davo

              Of course. I’m not implying it isn’t a good seller. I think all the evidence points to it being a very good seller, especially in the US. Here in Singapore, the estimate I get from retail stores is ~1month wait.
              But I don’t think Nikon should be ‘shocked’, which implies they grossly underestimated which isn’t a good thing. But of course this is third hand info so maybe ‘shocked’ might be an exaggeration too.

            • Eledeuh

              > But I don’t think Nikon should be ‘shocked’

              We quite literally have no idea of the volumes they have to deal with right now, so it’s a really bold thing to say.

              Hindsight is always 20/20.

            • Davo

              Fair point. All this is guess work based on a member’s info from someone working at a large retail store. We don’t know the exact context or exactly what ‘feelings’ were conveyed by Nikon.
              So it’s just hypothetically if Nikon were genuinely ‘shocked’, yes it’s a good thing for sales but not such a great thing from a management point of view.

            • I agree, but I think it is not a surprise to anyone here that Nikon management has made the wrong predictions on multiple occasions in the past few years – Nikon 1, new mirrorless, DL, Keymission and now on the D850 (I am sure I have missed some).

            • What I am saying is that both can co-exists: Nikon did not estimate correctly the D850 sales and that’s why they are shocked how well it sells… 🙂

            • Davo

              I agree.
              I’m only thinking what the hypothetical implication would be beyond that D850 is selling very well.
              Are any of us shocked that the D850 would sell incredibly well.
              Has Nikon lost touch with who their robust buying customers are and what they demand?

            • Yes, Nikon has lost touch, I think there is no arguing here – just looks at the headlines for the past few years. The good point is that they still know how to make a great camera.

            • Allen_Wentz

              Yes Nikon makes awesome cameras. Why they do not just put a new MBA from Cal or Stanford or Penn into the marketing job is beyond me. On a 1 to 100 scale Nikon’s hardware is 100 while Nikon’s marketing is at -10.

            • PhilK

              I sincerely doubt that one brand-new college graduate will single-handedly fix Nikon marketing and strategic product planning.

              Yes they could improve marketing and strategic market planning. Yes they could adapt faster to market shifts.

              But the great thing about Nikon is that they are not all about following transient market trends with “disposable” products, they like to (and do) produce classic products that stand the test of time.

              I’m willing to accept a bit slower response to market trends as a tradeoff for that, as long as it doesn’t compromise their competitiveness so much it makes it difficult to continue to push the boundaries of the art and get their products into the hands of enough people to make a long-lasting impact.

              Because that, I believe, is what Nikon wants to be known for, and what they want their legacy to be.

            • Thom Hogan

              Well, unfortunately we’re getting things here that are vague statements from hearsay sources. Impossible to judge. For example, what does “shocked” actually mean in this context, and at what level within NikonUSA are they at? Both things make a difference as to how I’d interpret the “report.”

            • T.I.M

              You also have to think about economy, right now US economy is doing much better (thanks to me) so people are more willing to spend $3K in a camera.

            • Allan

              And probably more people are borrowing money to buy stuff. They are not worried about losing their jobs.

              { Thanks for helping the US economy. Go buy a D850. 🙂 }

            • Thom Hogan

              No, predicting exact sales is not an exact science. But predicting demand is a known and necessary function of a marketing department. And demand assessment is pretty easy to do. Thing is, you have to keep doing it, as you’re in a competitive market place and things change.

            • Whatever the case is, my point is that Nikon could have no estimated the demand correctly and the D850 could be a good seller at the same time. I prefer this scenario than the opposite.

            • PhilK

              It’s not an exact science but the companies that tend to do well are the ones that do it better than competitors like Nikon. 😉

            • I will not argue that, like I mentioned in my previous comments, you just have to look at some of Nikon’s previous products and you will see that they did not do their market research right (Nikon 1, KeyMission, DL…). BTW, they canceled the DL right before compact cameras actually moved up compared to previous year: https://photorumors.com/2018/02/12/what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2017/

    • Mike

      Amen. I have a D750 which is still an incredibly good camera. But….. after using the D850 for a few months…. the D750 doesn’t feel so special anymore. The D850 is that good. The first camera to get out of my way since my beloved D3s.

    • AlexG

      Do you have any numbers to share? If your friend is capable to know Nikon is “SHOCKED” i would imagine he would have access to numbers, atleast from his side.

      I can understand that someone who works in retail can from own experience see a shortage for an item but to know “Nikon is shocked” looks like a statement to support your own opinion for an item you purchased and you are excited about.

      I think it is too much like an advertisement than a realistic statement to say ” literally does everything you might want”. For me it does not for you obviously it does.

      Anyway too bad for Nikon and customers that they cannot satisfy demand for whatever reason.

      • bobgrant

        I shoot jewelry for line-sheets and catalogue. The D850 is ideal for that. Last night (and tomorrow) I shot indoor basketball and the D850 was excellent. My friend added the D850 to his wedding kit and loves it. I’m sure you’ve seen reviews calling the D850 “the” best wildlife camera and it’s certainly superb for landscape and fashion. My buddy is getting great results for astro work with his Celestron CPC 11. I’m not sure where the D850 has fallen short for you, but it’s fairly well established as a well rounded product. Obviously there are niche areas that no single system can fill. Coming from D4s, Df, D810, D800 and 5D MK2, this is the best camera I’ve owned.

        • AlexG

          Thank you for the reply.
          For me all those are nice examples of the camera’s usability but missing a good video af for my needs.
          D810 and D4s covers most of what i use my cameras for.

          I used D850 for 10 days. Exceptional camera but it would not give me something i miss so i am still waiting for Nikon.
          Lately i hear Canon’s 1Dx mark II calling me but i still resist.

          • bobgrant

            Alex, if you’re at all serious about video, no DSLR is ideal and adding better AF (which may be possible via firmware) will change that.

            • AlexG

              DSLR is not ideal but can be very capable with a few more options and features. Sony and Canon are as close as it gets, i hope Nikon does the push, for my personal reasons as i am not fan of changing systems but neither of carrying multiple systems, as well as for Nikon to stay in the competition.

              I strongly believe video features and file sharing connectivity (not so interested personally) are what Nikon should improve at.

      • And my question is: do you have nay numbers to share? Bobgrant explain where he got his info, where did you get your info from?

        • AlexG

          I did not report any info so i do not know what is your question about, i merely pointed out the logical, without numbers everyone can say whatever they want for whatever reason they do.

          • Well, I did report the results I got from sources that have numbers. Is that good enough?

            • Thom Hogan

              Again, this is hearsay, and not specific. So it’s impossible to judge. This is why you see the NYT use language like “an anonymous source in top management says x, and two other sources within the company have substantiated that to our reporters.” And “x” is usually something relatively specific.

              Thing is, we’re seeing weird reporting all around. The business and Apple sites were all abuzz recently about supposed cutbacks in Apple’s iPhone X production, yet the data miner I have running tells me that on any given day it’s likely that my local Apple store is out of stock of the product. I’d believe Apple before I’d believe the Apple analysts.

              Apple, unlike Nikon, has literally minute-by-minute data flying into their databases to micromanage production numbers.

            • AlexG

              Good enough! Thank you.

    • Horshack

      The D800 was just as expensive and had incredibly high demand. The idea Nikon would be “shocked” about the D850’s demand doesn’t sound right.

      • ITN

        It’s the only camera they’ve made in several years which sells well, so it is understandable why they’d be surprised.

  • Michael Lee

    So in other words in won’t be until end of March or beginning of April when we will actually see the D850 in stock anywhere?

  • sickheadache

    Selling Like Hotcakes. I get mine every time I rent. Zero Problems.

  • animalsbybarry

    Just to clarify

    The D850 IS out of stock , but that does not mean you can’t get one.
    Cameras are going out every week.
    If you order one from a reputable dealer you will get it in the but you will have to wait your turn..

    • GregoryH

      “If you order one from a reputable dealer you will get it in the but you will have to wait your turn..”
      Oh my. What will I tell my wife?

      • Wait for a short period of time….. unlike with B&H or such.
        But you are right. If we do not read between the lines, it is funny.

  • purenupe1

    I wonder if nikon is indeed working to production capacity, or if they’re remaining conservative in output for fear of a contracting market.

    • Allen_Wentz

      Not “fear of a contracting market,” it unequivocally IS a contracting market.

      • purenupe1

        Indeed, I should have worded it as “fear of the”

  • Thomas Swift

    Peter: A bit off topic, but as I drag my feet on converting the 800E to an 850 (the out of stock status helpful in reducing my temptation), what I really need is D5 low light performance for some technical work. Any news on the D5s?

    • No, nothing on a potential D5s.

      • Allen_Wentz

        Please keep watching closely, because some of us really care about what a D5s/x might be.

        • Really nothing yet, not a single rumor, except some emails that Nikon may skip the s line all together.

    • AYWY

      There probably won’t be one, since the winter Olympics are already underway.

      • Fly Moon

        World Cup is this summer.

      • ITN

        Also the D5 sold poorly, so there might not be a new model until the D6.

    • HoneyBadger

      what would want improved. well the video side needs an update

  • Aurelie

    Most expensive cameras actually go “out of stock” indefinitely from Amazon after a while.

    Amazon is mostly interested in items that ship fast, high volume items.

    Because to them, shelf space = money. Things that don’t ship fast or are sold in low numbers (like expensive cameras) are not interesting to them. Everything that sits on Amazon shelves in some warehouse, is money wasted for Amazon.

    If Amazon can sell boxes of tic tacs faster than a $20,000 item, they will sell tic tacs.

    • Allen_Wentz

      You say:
      “Because to them, shelf space = money. Things that don’t ship fast or are sold in low numbers (like expensive cameras) are not interesting to them.”

      Sorry but I stongly disagree. Amazon is NOT a brick and mortar store with “shelf space” per se. The entire logic of your analysis is flawed.

      • Abiatha Swelter

        Amazon’s problem is actually the opposite. They want to have the warehouse filled all the time. If your item is not on the shelf when it is scheduled to be, the inventory management system is going to allocate that space to something else. (I work in publishing and we run into this problem from time to time with late titles)

    • ZoetMB

      No. That might be how Amazon should operate, but it’s not how they do operate. Amazon stocks plenty of items that never sell. Media is a hit driven business. The top 50 books garner something like 80% of sales. The top 100 Blu-rays command something like 70% of total Blu-ray dollars. Physical music is in severe decline (942.5 million CDs were sold at their peak, 88 million were sold in 2017) and yet Amazon still stocks very, very deep and keeps items on the shelf that might never sell or might sell say, one copy a year.

      I think eventually, Amazon might change their strategy and work more as you imply they are. Why keep all those gigantic warehouse filled with products that don’t sell? But that’s not their approach today – quite the opposite.

  • Aldo

    Only a two week wait though… at this point its better for nikon

    • Proto

      Yes. Nikon is enjoying zero inventory and zero discounting.

      But, likely missing larger sales volume and opportunity to pull or convert non-Nikon customers with their successful camera.

      • Aurelie

        Japanese camera brands seem to have all adopted the same strategy.

        Increase prices and make up for lower volume with cost custs (Nikon moving production from China to Thailand to reduce wages for example).

        But this is a dangerous strategy, because high margin low volume products only thrive when the world economy thrives. When people have money for expensive goods. When we get another 2008 crash (and we get one every 10 to 15 years), those high margin products sales get wiped out.

        Not to mention this strategy fails over time since you need cheap and exciting products to grow a consumer base from the ground up. You can’t keep relying on baby boomers, you need a younger audience because the older audience making up most of Nikon’s sales is not going to keep paying the bill.

        In that sense, Canon does a better job, they attract vloggers with the cameras and even have vlogger camera kits.

  • Eric

    I placed an order with Amazon on January 5th and it was shipped on January 30th . It was not urgent so a 3.5 week delay was not big deal.

  • photomanayu

    Buy from Canada, everyone have them in stock. After currency coversion it is the same price.

    • T.I.M

      Is the manual in French ?

      • Allan

        It’s written in Quebecois; you won’t understand it. 🙂

        • T.I.M

          What are you talking about, Marcel Beliveau is one of my best friends!
          Surprise sur prise!

          • Allan

            Good one!

            I’m more familiar with Jean Beliveau.

            • T.I.M

              Marcel Beliveau is a movie maker, he was very popular in France about 25 years ago for his TV pranks involving celebrities.

      • photomanayu

        LOL, it come with 2 manuals. And yes, one of them is French.

      • Fly Moon

        Not in Spanish!

  • Ryan Kelly

    I just walked into a store in Vancouver, Canada, and purchased one with out a preorder 3 days ago. Is there a reason US residents are not purchasing from up here online, considering the dollar difference as well.

    • There would be no warranty.

      • Ryan Kelly

        I thought warranty included both Canada and the US as North america. I know of people purchasing from BH who are from Canada, are they losing out on warranty as well?

  • SteveWithAnS

    I guess I’d have one by now if I didn’t cancel my prerelease preorder. I put another order in a week ago so it seems I should have one in about 4 weeks…

    Does anyone like the quality of the Tamron 24-70 G2 or Tamron 70-200 G2 on the D850 or would I be a fool to not buy the Nikon 70-200mm FL?

    • Connor

      I use the Tamron 70-200mm G2 on my D850 and i can’t say I’ve got any complaints about the image quality from it.

      I’ve not tried the Nikon so I can’t really comment on which one is better.

      I’m debating adding the 24-70mm G2 to my bag to complement the 15-30mm and 70-200mm

      • SteveWithAnS

        If you’re happy with the G2, I guess there’s not really a point in trying the Nikon.

        You say you like the image quality, but do you like the AF speed as well? Can it nail focus 90% of the time on people running?

        I’m debating getting the Tamron 24-70 and 70-200 G2 instead of 1 Nikon 70-200 FL…

        • Connor

          I’ll grab some examples from my Flikr account and you can get some idea of what the Tamron 70-200mm G2 can offer on the D850.

          I’ve not even bothered messing around with calibration as I’ve found its bang on the money every time and the AF is incredibly fast to snap onto a subject.

        • Connor
    • Ed Hassell

      The Nikkor 70-200 f/2.8E FL is unmatched, currently the best in the industry (all brands) by a significant margin.

      • SteveWithAnS

        As far as the 2nd best 70-200mm f2.8 for a nikon, would that be the Tamron G2 or the Nikon VRII?

        • Ed Hassell

          I think the VRII is the better choice of the two older Nikkors for full frame although I was never particularly a fan. The original VR was the better choice for DX format and, in many ways, a better lens. It just couldn’t hold up on FX. I have no experience with third-party 70/80-200 zooms; so, sorry, I really can’t give first-hand advice.

  • Kept an eye on a local shop, woke up one morning and they listed as in stock. Called right when they opened and they had one left so I snagged it. Got lucky, they’re back to being listed “On Order”

  • Fernando Costa

    Does any one knows the D850 manufacturing total numbers?

    • ITN

      You can get some idea from the Nikon serial number database. D800/D800E known serial numbers range about 400k, D810 230k, and D850 40k copies. The D850 has been available for about half a year, the D810 was the top model of the D8x0 series for 3 years and the D800/D810 about two years. So the rate of sales for the D850 matches the average rate of sales of the D810 but the D800/D800E sold at a 2.5 times greater rate.

      Since most cameras are sold soon after launch (when the demand is the highest), the decline in sales over the longer term is very evident. Nikon is wise not to overproduce the D850.

  • saywhatuwill

    Of course they’re in low supply. Did you check out how many were in that cage at the Olympics? LOL

    It’s possible Nikon is going the Nintendo Wii route where they intentionally kept production low in order to keep demand high. (Yes, I made that up, but it kind of rang true because the year after it became readily available demand fell dramatically and the year after Nintendo introduced the Wii-U.)

  • Photoman

    I ordered my D850 w/ grip from Adorama on 1/16 and it arrived 1/22

  • Samuel I Beard Jr

    Judging from that photo showing all of those D850 and D5 bodies–not to mention lenses–at the Olympic Games, I’m guessing a HUGE number of them are there. One wonders what they will do with all of them after the Olympics are over. I’m guessing that there will be a LOT of refurb D850 units for sale.

    • ITN

      No they tour around the world for major sports events and are available for loan to NPS members when their own equipment is in repair or they want to test something else.

      • Samuel I Beard Jr

        There seemed to be an awful lot of them to go into NPS service as loaners in the photo I saw. Still, I think that explains where a LOT of the bodies went.

  • Thomas Malar

    This camera seems like a dream but if it is not in stock, it

    • Mike A

      It is six months later.

  • BPR

    FWIW, I did finally get my D850 from my local camera store a couple of weeks ago, about two and a half months after ordering it. So, local camera stores aren’t necessarily a secret route to getting it quicker than Amazon or B&H. All the same, it still seems as if you’ll need to special order it if you want to get it any time (relatively) soon.

  • Davo

    How bad was the availability on the D800/D800E release?

    • If I remember correctly it was also 6 months until the cameras were available in stock.

  • Ed D Lee

    Good for Nikon. They have a new management now – just waiting for their mirrorless.

  • Leon Watkins

    I’ll say this for what it’s worth – having both the D500 and D850 it’s a slightly odd feeling to have a system that feels like it has no compromises or hobbling that I can have a huge level of confidence in – having ground up through the “enthusiast” models for ten years with cameras which have been very good but have always felt a little hobbled it’s a revelation the freedom these bodies give me. Nikon seem to have extended the lead that these bodies have over the others in their range (I’m talking specifically about the D75000, which although undoubtedly very good, I wouldn’t now touch due to the grip/card shortfallings). The denand for the D850 gives me hope for the upcoming mirrorless offering, which Nikon have said twill be an “all-in” affair – if so, I would expect similar demand for, especially in the US market. If it’s in any way hobbled, it’ll crash and burn.

  • ipdouglas

    No shortage in the UK but I guess that is because we pay $1400 MORE for a D850 body with an inferior warranty! I guess those that yield the most profit get the goods (a very American idea I think?). Perhaps shipments are being diverted from USA to UK to attract higher profits. Ah! the sweet smell of Capitalism.
    Just to add salt to the would I am on my second body and a swop was done after 40 days straight off the shelf. The first body was delivered on day one an age ago.

    • ITN

      The issue is that in the US the consumer doesn’t have as strong protection as in the UK, and when an item in the past required expensive repairs that were not paid by the customer (D750, D800, D800E, D600) then these costs lead to a price-elevated D850. In the US market Nikon just told customers with defective cameras that they dropped it (“impact damage, customer pays”) or that it’s within specs, or that they should learn to clean their own sensors. In the UK this doesn’t work as the legal protections for the customer are strong.

      • Ah, the sweet smell of socialism!

        • ITN

          The mistreatment of customers is rampant in the US, so I’ll take the generally nice local attitude of Nikon in Europe where repairs of out of warranty items are often covered by Nikon in my experience. Nikon USA charge a lot for repairs and may not always successfully resolve the customer’s problem. Second hand buyers may not get any service (by Nikon USA) even for money, if they unwittingly bought a gray market item. But hey the camera was a bit less expensive than elsewhere so I guess customers are happy. Or are they?

        • Reilly Diefenbach

          Socialism (check the standard of living in Norway) is indeed sweet compared to piratical corporate capitalism.

      • ipdouglas

        Are you saying that UK consumers get free damage repairs you are VERY wrong. We only get protection for equipment failure due to manufacturing faults in the first 12 months then nothing. However you may also be saying that the USA has no protection at all for retail purchases but I find that very hard to believe?

        • ITN

          I am not in the UK but in another EU country. In the whole EU, the manufacturer’s importer has responsibility for manufacturing defects for two years since purchase. If I am not mistaken, UK has even stronger consumer protections than many other EU countries. Where I live Nikon frequently repair my gear for free. I guess it depends on the persons you are dealing with (and how you treat them) but I do believe the substantially elevated prices for the D850 in EU region are to pay for higher costs due to strong consumer protection laws in the EU.

          In the US Nikon seem to do their best not to accept responsibility. They will not touch gray market items and you have no way of knowing if a used market purchase is gray or not.

          Be that as it may, Nikon asks a substantially higher price for D850 in EU than US and taxes and customs only explain half the difference or less.

  • PeterT

    You can find some stock in online stores over here in Germany. Well regarded dealers no fake shops… But there are also some some big dealers that have no stock at the moment. Shipping times vary from 1 day to 12 weeks.

  • johne37179

    I have a D850 and use it with a D500. This is a great pair. I find I don’t always need, or even want, the large files produced by the D850. I find I’m having to upgrade from my late 2015 iMac to an iMac Pro to handle the D850 files in a reasonable time

    • SteveWithAnS

      I guess that is the hidden cost of the D850…new computer time. I want to buy a new graphics card for my desktop, but I guess bitcoin miners have been scooping all of those up and they are even more out of stock than the D850…

      • Proto

        Also, expensive and erratically available XQD cards

        • SteveWithAnS

          True story. The XQD cards aren’t that Much more expensive than the high end UHS-II SD cards though. I could always pop out my 64 gb card from my D500 until I feel like buying another XQD card. XQD cards are expensive because they’re awesome.

        • Allen_Wentz

          Nonsense. In the large sizes one wants for a D850, SD cards cost MORE than the much faster XQD.

  • animalsbybarry
    • Allan

      Go Barry!

    • T.I.M

      Nice, where do you live ?

  • SteveWithAnS

    Thanks for the examples. The lens seems like a steal for that price.

  • Eric Bowles

    You have to keep in mind that the D850 is the only new camera Nikon has released in six months, but reported sales volume of interchangeable lens cameras was up 35% in the last quarter. That’s a huge production increase for any company – especially when you consider that one plant needs to increase production to cover that amount. And it’s not just Nikon – it’s their whole supply chain.

    The D850 is a wonderful camera. NPS demand at release was also far above anything they had ever experienced. Remember the shortage of units to fill initial NPS orders?

    Sales forecasting is imprecise. The sales groups is always going to be optimistic during design, but conservative about sales because they don’t want to be stuck with an impossible sales goal. Production also needs to be conservative and establish production plans they can achieve with a completely new model. Production capacity and many costs are largely fixed, and if you plan for too much volume and ramp up, you won’t make money and might lose money even with a bit hit.

    I think Nikon hit this one exactly right. They produced a great camera. But they have also dominated the news cycle and have the camera everyone wants when they go into a store. Early adopters got their cameras. The early followers are still ordering and building the buzz. And profitability is certain to be up – which is a good thing for Nikon, Nikon shareholders, and Nikon customers.

    • AlexG

      How is it good for me if i have to wait to get a product, let’s say a couple of months? I do not understand it.

      • Ed Hassell

        I knew with early rumors that the D820/850 would likely be a very big hit. Anticipating that it would be the star of Nikon’s 100th anniversary year was a no-brainer. Had I wanted one of the first to be delivered, I would have placed an order the day of the announcement. Given demand, backing out, should I later change my mind, would not have been a problem.

    • Mike A

      This is one way of looking at it. Another may be they can’t make the sensor – production/yield problems. As a result, fewer cameras and lost sales. I’m one of those who didn’t buy/lost sales (I bought A7RIII) due to availability and other factors

      • You probably don’t have many lenses if you did that.

        • Ed Hassell

          Umm, F-mount lenses: 5 Zeiss, 5 Sigma Art, 1 Tokina, 1 Voigtlander, 1 Irix, 16 MF AiS Nikkor, 12 AF “D” “G” & “E” Nikkor (& probably a few more I’ve misplaced) — Sure, I’m gonna switch to Sony tomorrow. Yeah, right….

          • AlexG

            I thought for so long my GAS was untamed. …now i feel like my self control is out the roof. I feel thrifty like a monk, like a discipline master with so few lenses compared to you!
            Thank you!

            • Ed Hassell

              LOL! You’re welcome. Actually, there have been at least as many more that I have bought and subsequently sold over the years. I’ve worked as a freelance photographer since 1967. Admittedly, not quite all, but most of my purchases have been driven by specific project needs (although, sometimes, I could probably have made do with something I already had). GAS is a b.i.t.c.h.

              PS: There are also Leica, Contax G2, Hasselblad & Linhof.

            • AlexG

              Nice collection! Keep enjoying it!

  • ipdouglas

    For those that have commented that have both D850 and D500 (I also have both). I now feel the D500 is superflous as I can switch D850 to DX mode and get almost the same resolution on the same expanse of sensor. In fact using the D850 with a 500mm in DX mode you get a semi greyed out ‘edge’ to the viewfinder and this enables easier tracking or location of flying birds for example. A loss of a few frames on burst – so what?

  • Amir

    Keep calm and purchase for Nikon D850 in Canada!

  • Reilly Diefenbach

    Or you could have had one from Best Buy back in October :^) She’s a sweet camera, boys! Current eta is March 2.

  • ZoetMB

    I’m sure it’s more than that. For the first three quarters of this fiscal, Nikon sold 2.16 million DSLR’s. 42,000 is only 1.94% of that. If the D850 is only 2% of DSLR sales at Nikon, it’s a failure. I’m a pessimist about their D850 sales and even I think 42,000 is way too low.

    • Thom Hogan

      No, Roland’s number looks close to my number. I think the D850 is on a 10k/month run rate.

    • PeterT

      Given the small number of people who know his site I agree. Therefore send him your serial numbers all of you D850 owners…

  • T.I.M

    Is pot legal in your state ?

  • T.I.M

    I’m in Florida (the only state that have more old people than mosquitoes)

  • BVS

    Is it still accurate to call them “pre-orders” when the camera was released months ago and the orders were placed after it was released? Shouldn’t they be called “back-orders” or something now?

  • Ash Bowie

    For anyone who cares, Adorama shipped my D850 today, ordered on January 23. I guess some stock is now coming in.

    • Thanks, I updated my post.

  • nick prafke

    Where is the information on order dates coming from? I placed an order with adorama on Jan 15 and haven’t gotten anything yet .

    • From readers who purchased the camera.

      • Puddin Tain

        Good question. See Ash Bowie post below. He ordered Jan 23rd and has his. You should call Adorama.

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