Nikon D600 release probability now at 80%

Today was all about the new Leica products but I still  have a quick update on the Nikon D600 - I can now raise the probability of the D600 release before Photokina to 80%. Note that some of the specs may still be inaccurate or incomplete.

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  • ericnl

    Nikon did a good job giving medium format cameras a run for their money when it comes to picture quality, but when it comes to moiré and high iso noise during video, Canon clearly has the upper hand and I guess that it is the high pixel count of the D800 that is to blame.

    after having watched a bunch of D800 vs 5DmkIII videos like this one: I must admit that I’m looking forward to seeing both video and photo high iso examples from the D600 with the rumoured 24mp sensor. I wonder if that will make up for the difference that we can see so clearly in this video?

    and if it indeed does make a world of difference, who is going to complain about the AF motor? if you have €3000,- to spend you either buy a D800 body to use with your old glass, or, if you’re more a modern man, you can spend the same amount on a D600 body with a 24-70 f/2.8 AFS lens.

    oh, and anything else in the video mode I like better from Nikon like the dynamic range and the detail. and of course, without a doubt, when it comes to photography, I still prefer Nikon over Canon any day, even with the green hue that always seem to happen on all shots or the over-exposure when you are shooting high iso in low light. I shoot RAW, soso I can correct most in Lightroom, and in my JPG mode I have the auto WB corrected for this.
    (although it would be nice if there was a way that Nikon could get that right too).

  • Q

    It is amazing to me that a rumour of a $1500 FF DSLR creates so many complaints. Would I like my AF-D primes to auto-focus on it? Sure! Do I expect it? No. Nikon’s strategy, if the rumour is true, allows them to sell the camera at a fair price while building a new revenue stream in its lenses. Sounds reasonable to me, especially when you look at the fairly priced 1.8 primes Nikon has been introducing. Plus, if it makes the camera smaller and lighter, so much the better. In life, there are always trade-offs. This is one. Seems fair to me. Can’t have it all. Well, you can, actually. It’s called the D800 and it, too, is fairly priced.

    • ancrebleah

      If Nikon can’t give us a camera with a focus motor for that price then I’d rather they not. What you’re describing is kind of price fixing and market control. When you look at Sony or Pentax, they give you tons of features, but Nikon plays feature games to make profit. Nikon acts monopolistic and tries to control the market. They’ve gotten in trouble in other countries. I think their behavior is unacceptable.

      • Thierry

        > What you’re describing is kind of price fixing and market control.
        An FF camera at $1,500 is price fixing ?

        > When you look at Sony or Pentax
        there is nothing to look at as they do not offer an FF camera at $1,500

        • ancrebleah

          If they’re going to remove the focus motor or other features to force you to pay through the nose on their over-priced accessories, upgrades, or their more expensive lenses, then that seems wrong to me, much like it seems wrong to pay huge prices for ink for printers.

          Sony already had two FF cameras, A900, and A850 which was around $2000. You can probably get one for less than $1500 now. A850 came out in 2009. I think they just don’t have live view or video. They should be making another one soon I think. Some rumors Pentax might make one too. They have sensor shit, unlike Nikon.

          Nikon plays a lot of games with crippling their cameras to annoy you into upgrades. I don’t like that.

          • SDiggity

            The fact that Nikon is trying to accomodate the various levels of photographers in the world doesn’t seem like they are trying to control the market by giving them these options. If someone would like to have the benefits of a FF sensor, and by not purchasing the D800, be able to save enough to purchase a professional lens, then why is this a bad thing?

            I do agree some of their accessories are unfortunately a little over priced, like battery grips for example. But if you think their glass falls under being “over-priced” I challenge you to go to a shop and compare any of the top of the line lenses versus the competition (example: Nikon 70-200 2.8 VRII vs Sigma 70-200 2.8 HSM II.) Basically, you get what you pay for, and many including myself, are willing to part with extra dollars for the added performance benefits.

            Regardless, more options will accomodate more consumers and allow those consumers to achieve their goals more specifically. Whether it be a hobbyist, a portrait photog, a landscape photog, a journalist, or a sports photographer. No one is forcing anyone to purchase a product, and if one doesn’t meet your needs, then you can use what you have and wait for the next release.

            • Brian

              You should also factor in the resale value of those ‘high priced Nikon lenses’. Not only is the Sigma 70-200 slightly inferior to the Nikkor but on the open market Sigmas lose half their value in only a few years. Nikons on the other hand have actually appreciated in price in some cases.

            • dave

              I don’t think you completely understand what price fixing means. What Nikon is doing can be corrected by the market, meaning, if the product isn’t right for you and you don’t buy it and that applies across to many others Nikon would then develop something for the market, in other words the market dictates Nikon’s success in this case. If Nikon were conspiring with other businesses so the market no longer influences the products and prices, then you have price fixing beyond the market’s influence, which is disingenuous.

      • Alex

        A company is out there to make a profit? No! Who would have thought?

      • Q

        That strategy is not price fixing at all, which is an entirely different issue. If Nikon and Canon conspired to both set the D800 and MkIII at $4000 to lock in their profit margins, that would be price fixing. In fact, the D800 is significantly cheaper but arguably better than the MkIII. That’s called competition.

        Nikon selling a FF without an auto-focus motor at slim margins and building its profit at the accessory stage is a common strategy. See Apple iPad and buying apps. Xbox and buying games. Endless examples. If someone doesn’t like it, they an vote with their wallet and move to Canon, Sony, etc.

        If Nikon introduces a D600 FF at $1500 (I think it will be closer to $2000), that would be considered disruptive to this market segment. It would force others to to consider their FF entry offerings and it will be good for consumers because we will have more choice. Choice is good. Choice keeps markets healthy.

        I own a D90 with a number of lenses including a used AF-D 50 f/1.4 bought used that is on the camera 99%. But, I left Nikon to buy a Fuji X100 (part of the mirrorless market disruption that helps make the business case for a D600) and have been very happy with it. Nikon still does not have a similar offering. I would have bought an APS-C mirror less with good manual controls if they built it.

        If they introduce a D600, I’ll sell my D90 and nifty fifty and Nikon will have convinced me to not only bring my money back to them but also to take the D600 out when I would now take the X100.

        Me? I like a little market disruption! It’s gives me choice.

        • Jake

          Just pointing out here, Apple makes HUGE margins on the iPad. They make tons of money from the apps too, but they’re selling the iPad with like 50% profit margins. Bad example. 😛

          • JM

            As an Apple shareholder since 1987(and owner of 5 Macs, 3 iPads, five iphones, and too many to count obsolete iPods) I salute them! More money for me. me. me. It’s all about me. I love capitalism.

            • Sahaja

              Off topic here I know, but recently I’ve been playing with both an iPad 3 and a Galaxy tab at work. They are both gorgeous machines with lovely interfaces, but I’m used to a phone running Linux and I find both iOS and Android extremely frustrating and limiting.

              I hate being limited by Apple or Google as to what I can do and what I can install on these machines – and to be forced into their way of doing things.

            • Andrew

              Don’t forget the children in Afghanistan with your profits. Cheers.

        • ancrebleah

          Nikon is trying to make profit, they’re not trying to answer to the dozens of photographers that have decided that bracketing and buttons and commander mode is something they don’t want to pay for in a camera. Wow, we have so many featureless options to choose from. Are you kidding me? You’re such an apologist.

          If someone doesn’t like it, move your entire platform and lenses somewhere else? You’re not describing options you’re describing a horrible, unacceptable dilemma.

          It’s like if I said to you I’d give you one of the things that you ask for, except I’ll be removing your leg, or your fingers, or your arm or your jaw… etc. If you don’t like it, too bad.

          What company can afford to do something like that? A monopoly. We have laws against monopolies because they’re anti competitive, and produce less options.

          Nikon can only do this due to barriers to entry. That’s another monopoly term you can try to look up and then tell me why it’s good. These are bad for consumers.

          Just because other people do this doesn’t mean it’s good. You’re making a two wrongs fallacy.

          • Fact: Nikon is NOT a monopoly. Every company that mfg and sells a product, or conceives of and sells a service does so with a tiered model. This is to cover as broad a market as possible. Nikon is doing the same thing here.

            If you don’t like the lack of this, or the addition of that, well, that’s your problem. You’re probably not in the target market demographic for this camera. In that case, purchase a D700, D800, or D4. If you can’t afford those, again, it’s your problem. Despite the complaints, bitching and moaning from armchair business gurus about this camera – if released at the anticipated price point – is going to fly off the shelves. The same negative BS was spouted about the D800, and Nikon can’t keep up with the demand.

          • Andrew

            Your argument makes no sense. You do not understand the basic concept of a monopoly. Nikon introduces a product for half the price of another product they sell, and you expect them to include the same features contained in the higher priced product – makes no sense. Their pricing is not predatory to the consumers, nor are they doing something that their competitors are incapable of doing or matching. What sets Nikon apart is that they are the #1 brand in photography, and this is part of their competitive edge!

  • Q

    Admin, why did you post an increase in confidence to 80%? That is a big jump and without even a hint as to why.

    • Vin

      Magic eight ball said, (most likely yes), to the question. “will there be a D600?”

  • Douglas Adams

    Sorry for repeating, but I nailed this comment on the wrong place…

    With this d600 coming around, now I’m 99% sure that there will be no d400. This will make d300s the best DX camera ever made.

    Without getting into too many details, this will be the setup (please note that this comes in line with some of the Thom Hogan’s very precise predictions on this issue):

    Nikon FX line:
    D4 (with possible x version added later)

    Nikon DX line

    Nikon CX line
    some small thingie with better features
    some small thingie with less features
    some other small thingie…

    And this makes all the logic in the world. And for you that cry over missing AF coupling on the body of D600, don’t you think that NIKON knows that it would kill the sales of D800. This is very elegant solution, to offer such a high MP body but intentionally deprived of the capacity to use AI-S lenses.
    On the other hand, if it had one, you would probably cry over D7000′s autofocus module with 39 AF points…and step by step, you would ask for a D800 for 1500 Euros price.

    Nikon made this just as I was their main strategist!

    P.S. Good work Peter!

    • Deep Lurker

      I’m sticking with my guess that there will be both a D400 DX (semi)pro camera and a D600 FX camera. If Nikon could bring in a sub-$2000 FX that matches or exceeds the D700 in all respects, then I’d agree with the no-D400 prediction. But the rumored D600 isn’t that sub-$2000 “D700s.” It’s a “D7000 plus FX (and minus the AF motor)” instead.

      There is a sizable market that is willing to pay several hundred dollars more for a better body than the D7000 and who doesn’t care about (or actively doesn’t want) an FX sensor. Nikon would be foolish to leave that hole in their dSLR lineup.

      And a lineup of seven dSLR bodies (eight, if you count the D800 and D800E separately) isn’t too many.

  • maor

    Can’t wait for this one! I was really thinking of going for the D800 , but it’s a little above my league.
    The 600 looks like the perfect match for someone that got into photography a year+ ago and isn’t looking to make a profession from it.
    Hope they release it soon.
    Hope the forecast jumps to 100%!!!!

  • photdog

    Business wise the D600 may be a good sales strategy for Nikon. However in my personal consideration this is yet another camera to bypass. As often discussed here the D800 is not the successor of the D700. Neither is the D600. The only way I could think of the D600 being a supplement to the D800 is getting a cheap back up. But for this purpose I’d still take the D700 over the D600 for its more pro like features as 51 point AF and build for instance.
    As for me, I’m rather going to dish out the rumored asking price of a D600 for a Fuji X-Pro 1. Along wit a D800 I then get a tool which allows doing different stuff with high IQ. (really wish Nikon had an equivalent to the Fuji, but since the X Pro 1 seems to be a niche product, not selling in high numbers, I don’t think we’ll see such a thing in the Nikon program in the near future.)
    Similar thing with the D300s successor. In my eyes the D7000 isn’t the successor. But as Nikon took a high approach with its D3200 already, chances are that in their new line up system a D7100 might become a worthy successor of the D300s. Some argue, that the D800 in DX mode would make a D300s DX successor dispensable. But because of the masked viewfinder in DX mode it is not. Besides, it wouldn’t make much sense to spend $ 3000 on a second D800 to have one camera in FX and one in DX at hand at the same time.

    • Nikonnut

      Dont worry after the official announcement of the D600. Look to september for the final 2012 camera, the fulll frame D900.

      24mpx, 102k max iso but cleaner than 5Dm3, 8fps, 3.2 LCD, Built in AF, 100% viewfinder, sd and cf dual slot, usb3, backlit buttons, 2000k 60fps video, d800 style body w optional grip, en-el15 batt,

    • Herege

      Any new news from D600, new rumours confirmation?

  • Martin L

    A full frame sensor in a camera about the size of a nikon D7000 is the only thing that would convince me to give up my fabulous D90. But hopefully, the rumor about the D600 body not including an internal autofocus motor is false. Otherwise, a new class of lenses would have to be produced and purchased since only DX lenses have built in autofocus motors. Having many legacy Nikkor AF lenses—you’d have to pry them from my cold, dead hands.

    • Jikon

      ? AF-S FX lenses won’t work?

    • rrphoto

      24-70 2.8
      14-24 2.8
      70-200 2.8
      16-35 F4
      17-35 2.8
      24 1.4
      28 1.8
      35 1. 4
      50 1.4/1.8

      70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II
      80-200mm f/2.8D ED
      70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G VR IF-ED
      85mm f/1.4G
      85mm f/1.8G
      200mm f/2G VR IF-ED
      200mm f/2G ED VR II
      300mm f/2.8D IF-ED†
      300mm f/2.8D IF-ED II
      300mm f/2.8G VR IF-ED
      300mm f/2.8G ED VR II
      300mm f/4D IF-ED

      So all of these won’t work without an in body focus motor? *rollseyes

      • Vin

        That is a nice selection of lenses, I guess the 20mm, 18mm, 400mm, 600mm, real wide or real long would have to MF just like when AF first came out. This looks to be the same situation as it once was. Everything wider then 24mm & everything longer then 300mm was MF.

    • Levi H

      I don’t understand why everyone wants the body size of the D7000. Yeah, it’s great that it’s small and light, but it feels like a toy in your hands. It’s not comfortable. My old D90 felt better, and my D700 felt way better, but that’s as to be expected. If they made the grip so it was more like the D90 than the D7000, I may go for it. I’m sure it will have tons of updated features from the D700 because it’s so much newer, despite it’s lack of build quality. (like the D90 against the D300)

  • stepper

    Well, let’s see… 22.3 mp full frame at $3,500.
    hmmm. You’re right, Nikon doesn’t have anything like that.
    Except maybe the D800. But then again the 800 is $500.00 less at 36 mp.
    Maybe the D600 will be more comparable despite it being $2000 cheaper.

  • JeffP

    Your joking, right?

  • max

    I know this sounds little unprofessional, but i have a question on your opinion, what camera will be better FX d600 or DX d400?


  • Vin

    I think Nikon needs to remake a 24-135mm.
    f 3.3-3.5 compact so we can get at least a decent 28-105 @ f4-5.6 out of it. And a pancake 40mm f2., same for DX, a 28mm pancake prime & 16-90mm. That would make for good shoot from the hip options with 2 different cameras. Then a 85 1.8 FX. Would not even need a bag.

  • big eater
  • dave

    This is the camera that I’m after. I can’t wait, stoked at the price and that I wasn’t suckered into getting a D800, which I think might be a bit of a bust.

  • Blerim

    @big eater:

    This guy IS crazy. What he has written is rubbish.

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