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Nikon products in 2009

SLRclub has a special on predictions/rumors of upcoming DSLR products in 2009. From what I hear, this is suppose to be a reputable site. The Nikon entries are:

  • Nikon D400
  • Nikon D800
  • Nikon FX in D40/D60 body
  • Nikon D4

Translation (thanks H.P.):

Q1 of 2009

  • Olympus had succeed making entry line up for DSLR with E 420 and 520. They will make a very small DSLR camera without mirror and they are ready (micro four thirds format). According to CIPA's 2007 report (Camera & Imaging Products Association) DSLR is only 7% of whole camera market. 20% of compact digital camera users considered to buy DSLR, but they did not, because of the size and weight.

Q2 of 2009

  • Nikon D400 - 14000000 - 15000000 pixels and F-HD movie.
  • Entry level FX body from Canon (maybe using 1ds mark2 and 5d sensor so they can make it cheaper.)
  • Nikon D800 with HD movie and high resolution to compete with 5D mark2.

Q3 of 2009

  • 1Ds Mark V from Canon (maybe more than 30000000 pixels with crop mode)
  • Middle FX body from Canon, maybe 3D. Will have same performance as 50D.
  • So Canon's FX line up will be 1D/ 3D/ 5D (flagship/ middle / entry)
  • Nikon's first entry FX body based on D40 or D60.
  • and Sony will have A800 and other bodies to replace current body.

Q4 of 2009

  • Nikon's fourth flagship (D4?) - will have about 30000000 pixels and 16bit raw.
  • Sony will have FF body that will replace or higher version of A900 (30000000 pixels).

Via SLRclub

This entry was posted in Nikon D4, Nikon D400, Nikon D800. Bookmark the permalink. Trackbacks are closed, but you can post a comment.
  • Blue

    “Q3 of 2009
    1Ds Mark V from Canon (maybe more than 30000000 pixels with crop mode)”

    Ummm…what happened to Mark IV? o.O

    • lyr

      If I understood well, Japaneses do have a problem with number 4. that’s why there’s Fuji S3 Pro then Fuji S5 Pro, without the S4.

      So that makes the predictions inacurate, since D4 would be named D5 directly.

      • Loose & Obtuse

        There was a Nikon F4…

      • IsamuM

        FYI this is in Korean and not Japanese.

    • Anonymous

      in some asian languages……
      four sounds same as death….
      so some buildings dont have fourth floor

      like we dont have 13th floor

    • Daniele Cardone

      Japanese Superstition

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/nacente SURO

        4 in japanese is pronounced “yon” or “shi”.
        “Shi” is also death…

  • Sproutey

    Seems a lousy set of predictions.

    We won’t see a D4 or a 30mp A900 next year and an FX sensor at the D40/D60 level is just ridiculous.

    The D800 is a given and a 12–16mp, cheaper FF Canon is a strong possibility. A 1D4 is also a no-brainer.

    These predictions are too skewed towards hi-end FF bodies. The big money next year will be at the low-end. With these predictions we’re looking at 7-9 FF bodies at $2500+. Exactly where is the market for all these cameras?

    • lyr

      It’s true that it makes sooooo many bodies in just one year, and just after recent bodies :(

      So to me it seems more dreams than predictions.

      • http://www.uwphoto.ae Mariozi

        4 new bodies in 1 (recession) year?
        I would say unlikely at least. Especially the D4 and D800, and I doubt that the FX sensor would skip past the D300 and the D90 lines down to the D40/60 line, it is just too big and expensive.
        My guess is that the next thing we will see is a 12Mp D60 with a decent live-view (maybe mirror-less???) and better movie-mode with and AF motor I hope.

  • lyr

    Ok, very interesting list.

    But too much, and some contradictions:

    Canon will make a lower level FF body in Q2 followed by a middle level FF in Q3.
    But in Q3, there’s only 3 FF bodies listed: 1D/3D/5D… where is the new entry level supposed to be cheaper than 5D?

    And except all those very promising bodies (that I will not buy since mines are still working as good as the first day): where are the new lenses? Will they be able to design, produce and ship new lenses?
    (be it brand new things or simply updates of older lenses)

    So as I said in the other reply:
    Very nice wishlist, but too much to be true.

    • André

      Exactly what I thought (regarding the 1D/3D/5D thing). I’m not buying this for even a second.

  • http://vr.mmgfx.com/ hum@no.id

    This is a korean club…. nothing exact to come out of native japanese…

    BTW. In Japan a leader of the sale (at time) – http://bcnranking.jp/category/subcategory_0008.html

    *D90 up to 12 pos.

    • noelet

      Yup D90 with 18-200 up @12 from 15.
      But D90 with18-105 down @14 from 12.

  • noelet

    Putting an FX sensor on a D40/60 would effectively kill the very popular D90/300 line.I guess (if its to happen on 2009-2010) Nikon’s entry level FX would be on a D90 body; thereby removing the D300 and skipping the D400 in favor of the D800.

    But such a move would definitely affect consumer confidence on the DX where the bulk of sales happen.

  • Pablov

    “Nikon D400 – 14000000 – 15000000 pixels and F-HD movie.”

    F-HD meaning full HD movie, right ?

    If that’s true and Nikon also releases a D800, I suppose they will put F-HD on it too, taking advantage of the FX sensor low light capability.

    If they also release a D4, then the D3 and D3x’s prices should drop down dramatically near that date, could be a sign

    Would be really welcome to see FX lenses too… with VR (if appliable) and weather seal (always better)

  • Dan Wells

    Nikon’s not going to release a 30 mp FX body that would replace the D3x next year (leaving a 24.5 mp FX with amazing image quality (mine came in LATE Tuesday night, and my first tests squeezed in around the holiday have been remarkable) on the market less than a year). I certainly see the D700x/D800, and probably the D400. I strongly suspect that there WILL be a D400 at some point (semi-pro DX body), both because many photographers would choose DX in a rugged body with great AF over FX in a consumer body with so-so AF (especially if they owned DX lenses), AND because FX shooters often like to have a DX body as well. Nikon may also release a low end FX body (D90 body) to compete with the 5D mkII and the Alpha 900, both of which are actually D90 type bodies. The D3 replacement is a “maybe” at the end of the year (16-20 mp FX, very good speed and high ISO).
    Canon will almost certainly update the 1D mk III (and maybe the 1Ds mk III as well). The 1Ds update COULD be 30+ mp, because Canon’s 20+ mp pro body is a year and a half older than Nikon’s, and not fully competitive with the D3x at a similar price. It’ll be interesting to see if the 1D update is FF or 1.3 crop? The 3D is a beast that has been rumored for years – Canon seems to be wary of it because of its potential to hurt 1D-series sales (the cheap consumer body of the 5D series is a disincentive to use them replacing a 1D type camera). A D700x could force Canon’s hand, though.

  • Zoetmb

    I agree that these predictions are mere dreams. I think some people think that you create some mixture, bake it in a toaster oven and it comes out as a new camera. These things take time, folks! Besides, if we don’t let the manufacturers sell their models for a few years, prices are going to rise because they won’t be able to amortize the development and setup cost over a long period of time.

    Between the D2x and the D3 was close to three years. Even between the D2Xs and the D3 was 18 months.
    Between the D200 and D300 was just short of two years.
    Between the D80 and D90 was two years.
    Personally, I think what you’ll see in 2009 is a replacement for the D60 and maybe something on the low end below it.
    I suppose anything is possible, but I really doubt you’ll see a D800 or D4 in 2009.
    You might see a D400 in November.

    Also, the comments on CIPA sales doesn’t quite make sense because while it’s correct from a unit standpoint, from a dollar standpoint shipments between DSLRs and point-and-shoots are much closer. Also, if you look at 2008 shipment numbers through October, you’ll find that DSLR sales are up 36% and PandS sales are up only 24%. (SLR lenses are up 31%.) Now those shipments may have been in anticipation of a strong holiday shopping season that may have not happened, so it will be interesting to see how the manufacturers change their shipment numbers for January and especially February.

  • nzpaul

    na I would never listen to any of these Korean bullshit etc

  • Bonetti

    Blablablablablablablablablabla This is non sense .

    • Jon

      Agreed.

      D400… maybe, but following Nikon’s hostorical release schedule it would be late 2009.

      D800… 2009 NO WAY… this is the stupidiest thing I’ve heard in a long time… a D700x, maybe… but D800 is at least 2 years away.

      D4… see D800… following Nikon’s rather consistent and regular release schedule the D4 release is into at least 2010.

      These are the ridcous rumors that do nothing but fuel pointless discussion… AND clicks… it’s all about the clicks.

      • Jon

        WTF! Why does my avatar show up next to the original posters name (Bonetti)?

        • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

          this is a known issue – it will be fixed next week once I update to WordPress 2.7
          Sorry!

  • matt

    Maybe the D400/800 are reasonable .

    But FF in d40/60 body ……..how could it possible ?
    The sansor size even bigger then the body…

    And D4 ??? WHAT’S THIS ? MX sensor ?

    • cs

      an FX sensor is bigger than a d40/d60 body? umm no, that’s wrong.

  • Pablov

    Even when these “predictions” might be wrong, I guess the time lapse between each release will not be the same as some years ago.
    It happens (more or less) to every electronic system, and digital photography won’t be the exception.

    It’s good to look what Nikon did years ago, and how long it took between models launches, but I don’t expect they will do exactly the same in future.
    Business, demand, development and competition are not the same as before.

    • http://flickr.com/photos/friedtoast/ Fried Toast

      Factor in the economy here, too. If you’ve seen the news, Japan’s economy is tanking. Read on the BBC this evening that it’s the worst dive taken since record-keeping began. And since I live here, I can speak personally that it *is* severely affecting Everyday Suzuki-san (not many Joes living here). It’s tough. And when times get tough, people don’t spend money on luxury items. And while there are a select few that depend on cameras for their sole income, I doubt those people have enough money to float Nikon through a financial crisis.

      My non-expert opinion would be that development cycles are going to lengthen, not shorten. Money for R&D is going to start disappearing. Plant cuts/reductions are going to affect production lines. They’ll produce less because people are buying less. That’s going to mean it takes longer to recoup their initial development costs. We’ve been living in the golden age of photography, IMO. This little financial mess that we’re in now just might cut the rainbow short a bit.

      • ronin

        Toast is right on. In the middle of a depression it will be a struggle for existing discretionary consumer-product companies- such as the Nikon, Canon, and Sony companies- to stay around as going concerns. Product cycles will lengthen as margins get squeezed silly.

        I’m guessing that the products we have seen introduced in the last 6 months were planned 30 months ago. Retooling, innovation, product marketing, and distribution cost money and will be squeezed.

        Maybe we’ll have an opportunity to just take more pix with the stuff we already have.

        • http://flickr.com/photos/friedtoast/ Fried Toast

          Considering that film shooters are *still* using cameras from 40 yrs ago or more, shooting more with our existing equipment… what a concept! :D

          I agree w/ Ronin. The stuff in the tube will probably come out (possibly slightly delayed), but after that, unless there’s some major change in consumer spending, we’re going to see a lot of change in how & when products are sent out to market.

          I’d think Nikon’s going to be squeezed a lot more than Canon simply for the fact that it’s nowhere as big or as diverse. I think this would be a great time for Nikon to focus on lenses. As much as everyone loves new bodies and new gadgets, focus on the glass. With the D3, D700 & D300, low-light ability has improved enough that I think we can live with that for a few years until economic conditions allow otherwise.

  • http://www.8x10.se Lars

    All just an extrapolation from current products, a twelve year old could have written that wishlist.

  • Nokin

    The D400 will be arriving second quarter next year with 21 mp. It will have video and a unique feature set which will make the D400 much more than a D300x. It is rival killer. The D700x will be pushed until the end of the year and will follow the D400’s initial successes. Timing is not set, except that it will be released prior to the holiday season. In 2009, the D3x will continue to be the strongest performer in its intended market, due to a design implementation that far surpasses rival products in terms of physical and image quality. The D400 and D700x will be released to satisfy complementary markets. The D4 will not be released prior to 2010. The D3x will meet market expectations in 2009.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Again, do you have any info or this is your own opinion? Thanks.

  • another reader

    Sorry, there’s no way Nikon will stick an FX sensor in a D40ish body. There’s absolutely no demand for it. I think it would be very cool, but….no. It would push up the price of the camera too much to compete against other brands. Telling your consumers that your camera’s better because the sensor is physically bigger won’t get Nikon anywhere in their audience range.

  • kaki

    Most things in this rumor are not make sense at all. Nikon will not replace its flagship in a year with ignoring high developing cost. Economy is another factor. I think the market is not ready for another round of swaping action. These prediction is not based on thought.

  • a

    No way the Canon and Nikon boys will drown a weak market with so many products. You know why?

    They will LOSE money updating and revising production lines.

    D400, sure. No D4 in 2009.

    I’d much rather see some new lenses.

  • Pablov

    Interesting post.
    Deeper view than many others

    • Eric

      I agree, good analysis, much better than the subject matter of the origonal post. Good discussion as a whole though

  • LSE

    you guys are funny, in particular those that swear something is never going to happen or it is ridicoulous. none of you really knows what’s actually going to happen so your guesses are as good as the original post. The only ridiculous thing is thinking you can guess anything right today about nikon or canon as if you worked for them in their strategic departments.

    truth be told the d400 and d700x/d800 are due next year not because of some magic clock ticks in nikon’s HQ, but because in order to compete, they have to stay on top of their game. The d3x is just to keep canon in check for awhile. Yet it doesn’t mean anything will happen. It will only happen if nikon wants to compete agressively which is tied to how agressive their competition is.

    as for the names, d700x vs d800, that’s marketing. who cares what they are called.

  • Marshal

    Great again IF all that’s true. Wouldn’t turn down either a D400 or 800.

    As for the D4, is that supposed to be the so-called “MX” camera? It would need to be more than 30MP. Otherwise it would be cannibalizing too much of the D3X market. I think the rumors for that had it at around 40MP, which would put it in a significantly higher bracket for both IQ & price. But that’s more what Nikon needs to do anyway to compete with the new Leica and Mamiya & Hassy cams.

  • Matt

    I’d love to see an FX sensor in a D40-sized body. I used a film FE/FM3A for years and they were delightful compact SLRs. I have a D700 and am ambivalent about it; a joy to use, fast, instant response, but man it’s a beast. And the little popup flash failed so I get to send it in and be without it for 4 weeks while it’s fixed. It makes me look wistfully at my compact Mamiya 6. Maybe the fashion is switching back to Graflex-sized cameras these days, but I really liked the small SLRs and light, capable lenses.

  • Lawrence RS

    I’m just waiting for the FX sensor in a decent consumer body. I’m still using a film F80, I want an FX but I don’t need and can’t afford a pro grade body. There have got to be a lot more like me, with good 35mm film lenses who want FX but don’t shoot 1000 photos a week! There would be a good sale for this, every ordinary amateur isn’t a dumb-guy who doesn’t realize the difference.

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