Nikon 2011 Q3 financial results: “new generation digital cameras are under development”

Nikon's 2011 Q3 ended on December 31, 2010 and the financial results are now out - sales are up, income is down. Compared to Q3 of 2010, Nikon sold more imaging products in all three categories: 300,000 more  single-lens reflex cameras, 600,000 more interchangeable lenses and 2.3 million more compact cameras.

The estimation for the year ending March 31, 2011 stays unchanged:

In the future outlook section Nikon did not fail to mention that "new generation digital cameras are under development":

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  • venancio

    will this mean the next presented gears are just old tech iterations and not new gen? i’ll keep my expectations low and my dreams high…

    • If we’re to believe Nikon’s statements, they will have tons of new gear this year that isn’t just an iteration. In fact, the only “iterative” cameras I can think of would be the D5000 replacement and the low-end Coolpix replacements. Everything else seems to be attempting to raise the bar.

      • LGO

        The D5000-replacement, the D700-replacement, the D300s-replacement, and the D3s-replacement are all due this year. If Nikon releases even just one new mirror-less camera with interchangeable lens this year, this makes a total of 5 new bodies for this year alone.

        • LGO

          I forgot to add the D3x-replacement into the mix. A total of 6 new bodies in 2011?

          • SZRimaging

            D3X replacement is likely after the D3/D3S replacement. I would say don’t expect it until next year at the earliest.

            • LGO

              A D3x refresh is due as it was first announced in December 2008. This means that the D3x will turn 3-years old by late this year.


              Word is that the new Sony 30+mp full-frame sensor will first be used by a Nikon body before a Sony FF body, a reversal of what happened with the Sony A900 and Nikon D3x.

              Sony will not announce any new FF body this year. The likely announcement of Sony’s new FF body is rumored to be sometime in 1Q 2012 or shortly after. In this scenario, it might just be possible for Nikon to announce its D3x replacement in late November to December 2011 with general availability in December 2011 to 1Q 2012.

            • NisseHult

              Is there any possibility to get an FX EVIL camera from Nikon in the near future? I would like that!

            • LGO

              An FX EVIL camera from Nikon would be just wicked! 😀

      • R!


        • LGO

          An FX EVIL camera from Nikon would be just wicked! 😀

    • I fear so too. D4 — a D3s with more pixels; D800 — a D700 with more pixels; D400 — a D300s with more pixels.

      No interchangeable sensors, no body options (left handers, optional vertical grip for D4, interchangeable viewfinders etc.), no DNG support, no built-in GPS, no built-in TTL radio transceiver, no user programmable apps, …

      On the other hand all bodies will weigh more than their predecessors and feature 1080p24 or 1080i30!

      • User programmable apps:
        The first camera maker to offer a firmware with programmable plugins will win my heart, even if it’s not Nikon (I’m pretty sure it won’t be Nikon)
        Open-source firmware/framework: talk about forbidden dreams:)

        • I’m pretty sure it will be Nikon (or at least they’ll be near the front of the pack) ;~). But “programmable” means different things to different people, so I suppose we’ll still have something to debate…

          • gt

            I don’t know where you get the basis for that belief. If anything, I’d put my money on Sony — they’re the current leaders of innovation. And they have the resources to bring things to market quickly

            • Sony and letting custom programs on there hardware??
              the only reason sony patches there PSP & PS3 is to restrict home brew games and installing an OS on the system – and I think sony just won a suit that restricted home brew on there PS3
              Sony is notorious for propitiatory media and systems.

              Plus I still dont think we can say sony is leading innovation (yet)… The semitransparent mirror system in DSLRs is there only large innovation.

            • Mock Kenwell

              Yes, please let us know how Sony, who wasn’t even making DSLRs 10 years ago, is the leader of innovation. They physically manufacture the sensors and Nikon still smokes them on the engineering and design of those sensors. Everything Sony touches is a blunt attempt to create proprietary scenarios wherein they can receive boatloads of cash. It has nothing inherently to do with making the product better, and everything to do with establishing leverage.

            • randyravener

              Sony + User-customizability = End of the World…

              Which won’t happen unless 2012 comes true, which renders it useless.

              Face the facts, Sony doesn’t like people meddling around with their sacred firmwares and softwares, what makes you think they would allow any tom, dick or harry to make mods for it?

            • gt

              for those wondering where my sony statement came from read this post:


              there are several reasons

            • Let’s just say that when I was in Japan last February, there was a conversation that indicated to me clearly that Nikon has been working on something programmable. Not necessarily what I proposed, but they definitely were talking “programmable.” And it was in a camera under development that hasn’t been announced yet (obviously ;~).

              So I’ll stick by what I wrote. Nikon’s been thinking along these lines. How far they’ll get and how fast I don’t know, but they could be first and they won’t be far from first if it happens.

            • As for Sony being “most innovative” (can’t reply to the sub-threaded comment directly, so I’ll do it here):

              The definition of “innovation” being used by most people is not the one I’d use. Pellicle mirrors and mirrorless cameras have been done before. The word I’d use for Sony is “aggressive.” They’ve been aggressively trying to find leverage points that will gain them the market share they covet. At the moment they’re trying to do that through “being different” and marketing that as “being better.”

              There are certainly advantages to some of the things Sony has done, but ultimately when you push on differences they need to really push the shooting experience much further or the image quality much further in order to have stickiness. They haven’t quite managed the former and they haven’t managed the latter at all using the same sensors that Nikon is buying from them.

              On top of that they are missing lenses, lenses, lenses.

              But I give them full marks for trying. The NEX-5 beats the m4/3 cameras in quality, easily. So they’re getting better. But they have a ways to go yet and the big boys haven’t fully responded.

            • I wouldn’t place my bet on Sony, either. I would rather point to some manufacturer akin to the Android philosophy (let’s say Samsung – they don’t know how to make cameras yet, but they’re almost there:)

          • Bondi Beach

            Canon has the runs on the board here – both their slr and p&s digital cameras have been widely hacked to enhance capability. Canon do not seem too worried about that, which is kind of tacit support.

          • Thom, you just started a new rumor – Nikon programmable camera 🙂

    • Me

      Could next generation mean non-bayer pattern sensors? Perhaps the lawyers have negotiated their way through the patent mine-field?

  • Xscream

    It has begun? (4th Quarter I mean then) 😉

  • Banned

    Yen remains strong, you can expect price hikes soon. I wonder what their gov is thinking, their entire economy relies on exports so why would they not try to control Yen inflation? Go figure…

    • dave

      It’s not yen inflation. The US has been slowly devaluing the dollar for the past several years. It makes our exports cheaper for the rest of the world and artificially closes the gap in the trade deficit. Making our exports more attractive to the rest of the world does help create jobs, but it makes imports more expensive (one of the reasons oil prices are going up). Unfortunately, other countries are also engaging in the practice, China has done it for quite a while, and we’ve started the spiral toward the bottom.

      Fortunately for Nikon, the Chinese are not making Chinese-branded SLRs… yet. And they haven’t really started marketing their midrange and high-end P&Ss outside of China… yet. But that time is coming. We live in interesting times.

      • jay

        Printing money is a way to have a good life, sort of, on the expenses of everyone else in the world, and future generations of America.

        I am Chinese, and I think the Chinese government is a big sucker on this Dollar game … endless hard labors of poor folks in exchange of worthless papers down the road. They should buy all the Nikkor lenses in the world instead, that will hold better value.

        • dave

          The Chinese gov’t keeps the yuan artificially low on the world market so that their exports are cheap. they’ve been working the dollar game for a while now and everyone has been letting them get away with it when the economy was good and jobs plentiful because cheap stuff kept people happy. But now that unemployment is on the rise, many countries, not just the USA, are devaluing their currency to try to be more attractive in exports and bring more jobs back home. The long spiral to the bottom has started.

          • jay

            Are you repeating what’s being fed to you via media or you have real personal experience. The politicians and wall street types are trying to unload their own responsibilities by blaming the Chinese.

            The fact is almost everything in China costing more than the US. so the RMB currency is actually over valued … and it doesn’t have that much affect on jobs. The US multinationals moved their jobs to China because they could pay less, regardless of the currency value. This is the result of endless supply of labors.

      • Eric Pepin

        The Canadian dollar has been doing extremely well compared to the US for the past while, so I aint complaining. My orders from BnH have been getting cheaper and cheaper. And god knows I already loved BnH.

    • Anton

      They are doing their best.
      The yen interest rate is like 0.1 %.

      It almost as cheap as dollar. 🙂
      As a matter of fact the Japanese government says that yen is not strong, it’s that the other currencies are weak (like the dollar). So, make the dollar strong! Stop printing the money on the printer. 🙂

      • You’re both sort of right.

        The US has been doing things that tend to push the dollar down in value. That dates well back into the Bush presidency, and the reason is simple: in theory, it makes US exports more attractive to other countries and makes imports more expensive. It’s a dumb way to try to balance the trade deficit. And as long as China doesn’t let its currency float against the dollar, it’s a losing proposition. But a bigger problem for the US with the weak dollar and low interest rates is that money is moving out of the US to seek better investments. This is one reason why I don’t buy the “trickle down” theory, as the real action amongst the rich is “trickle out.”

        The government behind the yen is not particularly strong. Japan has a debt now 2x their GDP. But the yen itself tends to stay strong because Japan has a trade surplus and everyone thinks that they can just export their way out of their problem. Hasn’t proven true in over a decade so far, but you know, once you learn that theory in MBA programs, it’s hard to unlearn it in real life.

        In short, the world is betting the under on the US and the over on Japan.

        • Richard


          Energy policy is not the only thing that the government has screwed up, but it is, in all probability, the most important. The balance of payments, which, in large part, is driven by (oil) payments to foreign nations, many of whom do not have our best interests in mind, are driving the dollar down, irrespective of whatever else is happening.

          Energy policy is also a matter of national security, as is the fact that our manufacturing base has deteriorated enormously. In fact, we depend upon foreign sources for critical components of military equipment.

          The problems extend very far beyond the prices we pay for photographic equipment, but are all driven by the same forces.

          I have to wonder how much was quite literally “lost in translation” 0f the “new generation” statement. I think it is much more ambiguous than you apparently do. On the other hand, I would much prefer to be mistaken and see a series of truly new cameras.


          • As I try to point out in my political talks, EVERYTHING is connected. Most people (and politicians) want to isolate to a single issue of importance to them and pretend that you can solve the country’s (or world’s) problems by just fixing that (energy, immigration, global warming, trade balances, deficits, jobs, taxes, you name it).

            You correctly point out the relationship between energy and balance of payments. That money has tended to go into non-democratic hands that suppress people to the point where they aren’t educated well, don’t get jobs, and thus end up doing things like embracing radicalism because it may be their only alternative to force change. Meanwhile, immigration policies keep those that are educated and want to better themselves away, too.

            Virtually every issue we talk about and debate is intertwined. This leads to unintended consequences, because when you push on widget A all the other widgets move, too. It seems daunting at first, because this implies that you have to fix all problems simultaneously. Indeed, you do. But it doesn’t take one big change in one thing, it just takes lots of small changes in everything. It’s sort of a momentum thing: if you get the ball rolling the right direction, it’ll pick up speed on its own.

            Right now, unfortunately, our system has become all about A or B, and lots of A or lots of B. Neither will fix things as they both unseat lots of other widgets. And politically it seems we can’t find compromise anymore, which is where the small changes come from. It’s all or nothing, as in the recent “tax compromise.” Pity that.

            As for “new generation,” as others have indicated, it’s sort of a boilerplate statement. The Nikon execs have been running around for much of the past year promising something entirely new, so not having a statement that supports that in the financials would be interpreted badly by the financial community.

            • jay

              Thom, you should run for office … 🙂

  • xjrx

    “new generation digital cameras are under development” well, who wouldn´t say that?
    i see no indication, that upcoming models are “old” tech…
    i´m getting tired of hitting F5…

    • I do not remember Nikon ever saying something like that in a quarterly report, for a company that doesn’t even show prototypes, this is big, they are really putting big hopes in those new generation digital cameras. Note also that they said cameras, more than one new geenration.

      • I believe they did prior to the D3 launch, too. I seem to remember it mentioned in the quarterlies once before. Also, note that the release of the financials also usually is supplemented with a press conference and interviews with the business press, and I know that Nikon has used that wording there before.

        But several of the statements they made are just affirming dribble doublespeak. As in “yes, we know some of you think we’re behind on something, but we’re aware of that and will do something we think fixes that soon.”

      • Anonymous

        Because they are late! Nikon is so slow. They said that they are working on the new generation of cameras because people are pissed. Nikon is behind it is a fact.

    • pooparty

      had to hit f5 to see what happens…

    • Getanalogue

      Just sell your f5 to me….

  • Manuel

    “…new generation digital cameras are under development.” That’s a boilerplate. Everything else would mean that they’re going to give up their business.

    • BornOptimist

      I agree with Admin and Thom Hogan here.
      New generation means something different than traditional DSLR cameras.
      I also believe it’s a pretty safe bet that the only camera with “same as before” will be the D5000-replacement, which I believe will share much of the innards of D3100 (+articulated LCD).

      • broxibear

        “New generation means something different than traditional DSLR cameras.”
        You think so BornOptimist ?…to me “new generation” just means the next cameras ie D4, D400 and D800 in the same way as the D3, D300 and D700 were next gemeration to the previous models.
        I think they’re just highlighting to investors that a bunch of new cameras are on the way and they’ve not been left behind by the like of Canon.

        • JorPet

          That would be my interpretation as well. New sensors with improvements in IQ and/or DR. New support chips (Expeed 3), etc. If they could create a step up to a D4 from the D3s like the one from D2 to D3, it would be an incredible move.

          • It’s my interpretation, too, though I’d go further: new technologies debut in the D# generations. New metering, new autofocus, new ports, new viewfinders, and so on. The real question that should be asked is “what new technologies will we see?” My answer is new AF improvements, higher pixel count metering, USB 3.0, and much more. It’s not just going to be about sensors. If it was, we’d be seeing the beginning of the end of DSLRs.

            • What to you think are the possibilities for wider AF-point coverage with the current sub-mirror arrangement? I’ve always wondered if there were some technical limitations (mirror angle, opacity, etc) that have prevented a wider spread of AF points. Do you think there are more developments to be made there? Or should do you think the MFRs are concentrating more on LV af?

        • BornOptimist

          R&D is something that goes on continously.
          There are no need to tell investors that they are working on evolution of existing cameras, so this must mean something new (hence worth mentioning).
          D4/D800/D400 will be an evolution of existing products.
          Whether it will be revolutionary or evolutionary remains to be seen.

        • Ronan

          I’m with broxibearb, Nikon often talks about the new next generation as being the next step (D1 to D2 to D3).

          We are HOPING they mean something revolutionary… but don’t your hopes too high.

          In all honesty, i’m quite happy with my current generation of camera’s and i’m slowly migrating to digital medium format, which completely rapes the best of the best in DSLR tech (for IQ).

          What i am looking for in the next gen is more MP, superb High-ISO, 108op D-Movie.

      • ja

        new generation means D4 ,D400 ,D800

  • Getanalogue

    Next generation means iteration towards new tech, specs and iq

  • broxibear

    A cryptic thread appeared on the official Nikon UK blog yesterday titled “JUST A LITTLE PATIENCE…”

    • I saw that but I thought there were referring to taking pictures

      • broxibear

        Someone at Nikon UK is playing games lol !

      • broxibear

        Why is it in capitals on the Nikon twitter page ?…

        • Are we sure this is an official Nikon twitter account? The tone is very, how should I say that, relaxed easy going? Not typical for them.

    • shutterdancer

      That was a funny read broxibear…” What’s the longest you’ve waited to take the perfect shot?”….My answer would be, all my life…..if I ever take the perfect shot….I’ll sell my cameras and play my guitars more ;>)

      • SGN

        If you are to go beyond what you see, how will you know when you get there?

        Yes. I am a hopeless Lion King fan!

  • Anon

    I think the number actually increased by 50,000. The year-to-date (first three quarters) increased by 300,000.

  • huibu

    Expect to see two EVIL cameras, one DX, one FX, both with 12mpx.
    On top we’ll see in the course of the following 36 months after the announcements of the Evil system 4 new lenses:


    • Bullsnot

      Right… 12mpx full frame EVIL. OK. Sure.

      • Ronan

        Let the noob dream HAHAHHAHAHAAHHAAHAH

      • huibu

        The current 12mp FX sensor can’t go anywhere but into an Evil camera, and the 12mp DX sensor, introduced by the D300, making it’s latest appearance in the Fuji X100, will be the perfect sensor to go side by side with 12mp FX sensor, as seen in the D3/D300 announcement.

        Nikon does want to get into this market, and m3/4 is already sitting at the rather low end, though, naturally, as Nikon has a HUGE professional fan base, they will enter the market at the high end, and hit it hard.

        • enesunkie

          Isn’t a large advantage of EVIL cameras over DSLRs their size? I’m pretty sure sticking FX lenses on the front of an EVIL body would be counter productive this, not to image to ergonomics/balance of sticking a 70-200 on a body that size.

          • enesunkie

            Heck, I don’t even think you’d want to stick a 16-85 on one of those.

            • huibu

              This is a matter of the lens design. Many of the small design lenses go back, or are at least inspired by the Zeiss Tessar.
              Look at the Leica M-System, the M9 does have a FX sensor. There are plenty of lenses out there that are comparably small. At least up to standard lenses. There are limits, you can’t make 300mm really small, unless you make it an f/16 😉

              But seriously, this camera isn’t made for bird photographers. It’s main purpose would be ultra wide angle to standard focal length.

              Have a look at what Voigtlaender offers, even for the Nikon F-mount. Especially the 3.5/20 and the 2.0/40 both very small, both an absolute joy to use on an FX Evil.

          • heartyfisher

            the mirror space accounts for some of the size. without the mirror the back element can almost touch the sensor. this will allow the lens designers to shrink the overall size of the lens.

  • hybris

    let it rain

  • iamnomad


  • Chuck

    Duh, of course new generation is in development. New generation is always in development. The only thing different is that the release is coming soon. one can spin D4/D400 or mirroless or new coolpix as new generation, duh!

    Maybe the new camera will hae single use FILM, ROFL

    • dave

      Maybe with the loss they reported this quarter, they are just looking for something positive to say to try to calm fears of investors?

  • Mock Kenwell

    This constant reference to new generation cameras is clearly hinting at something, and it’s inline with Kimura’s statements earlier last year. Frankly, I for one am tired of hearing about it and need to see it. Nikon would take months to consider an evacuation strategy if their headquarters were burning down.

    • I agree. They’ve handled things completely wrong. If they want to hint at the future, they have to really hint with bits and pieces, not constantly tease with no substance. They’re coming off a bit arrogant and out-of-touch.

      Unfortunately, you may have me to blame for some of it, because at least two statements I’ve seen from Nikon execs are verbatim lifted from my presentation to Nikon. I guessed they liked my words. Now if they would only like the ideas behind them ;~).

      • gt


        which two statements?

      • gt

        p.s. let’s hope they lifted more than just your statements

      • Mock Kenwell

        Earlier last year, I was actually very excited to hear a Nikon leader finally speak with some passion, drama and conviction for a change. His bold statements gave me hope that Nikon could be shifting subtly to assume their rightful role as a market innovator and industry leader. What I also expected was some follow-up from a product/technology release perspective. We’ve received none. That demonstrates a distinct lack of cohesive strategy within the organization.

        I would disagree slightly and say that their previous tight-lipped, dull, monotone strategy came off as arrogant and out-of-touch. This different “approach” or lack thereof just makes them seem disorganized and a bit impotent from a product release perspective. And it’s not just consumers who hate that lack of clear direction, investors hate it, too.

      • Hey Thom, spill the beans, I think you know much more than what you’re saying. Of course, you wont´t do it … ;).

  • EC 2

    “new generation digital cameras are under development” … oh, really Nikon?!?

    let’s see… D5000 discontinued, D300s 18 months old (iteration of the D300, 3 years old), D3s/D3 (about the same of the D300/300s), D700 3 years old… and you say that u’re working on next generation products? I think that u’re kidding your customers (like me) or have very low opinion/respect of them and intellectual abilities. It’s quite obvious u’re developing something, unless u’re planning to close your facilities, Nikon.

    A statement like yours isn’t, IMO, a “revolution” at all, is idiocy!

    From my humble point of view, you NEED to upDATE, NOT upgrade, your whole DSLR line-up not only adding new -obvious- techs like the 24MPixel APS-C sensor from SONY but deploying a “whole new view”.

    Despite the fact I’ve heavily invested in your pro-glass, last month I was forced to buy a Canon 5DII and an adapter to be able to shoot high-res panoramas and still-life… with your lenses!!! It’s RIDICULOUS forcing a customer to do such thing because the only high-res body available is the over(priced) 6K Euros D3X! But I did, hoping to see a D800 or 900 or whatever at decent price, very soon, read 3k Euros.

    I would like to see SONY, Canon or other competitors to unleash good priced, full-packed APS-C and FF HDSLRs soon, in the hope to finally see YOU to press the TURBO-BOOST button and change your behaviour forever: it’s a TECH, DIGITAL world, Nikon not the good ‘ol analogic one. Change your mind… or your management.

    Best and keep up the good work.


    • ZoetMB

      I don’t know why you need Canon to shoot hi-res panoramas. I shoot hi-rez Panoramas with even my Nikon D200 all the time. Admitedly, the Nikon itself isn’t doing anything to support those panoramas – it’s all done in Photoshop, but it still works quite well.

      There are some P&S cameras that support panoramic photography (as well as 3D). Sony has several that do this. You tell the camera the direction that you want to go and then sweep the camera. The camera takes care of the rest and does an amazingly effective job. But you can’t do stacked panoramas.

      • EC 2

        As I said, I needed a full frame body with a high pixel count to do panoramas and stills. MF buyers are idiots in your opinion, right?
        Moreover I’ve commented about the “revolutionary” Nikon statement “we’re working on next generation dslrs”: wow, incredible!!!

        • ZoetMB

          No, MF buyers are not idiots in my opinion – I still have my old 120 film Rollei, which I use from time to time, especially for black & white. And my father’s photography company used to specialize in panoramic images made with Cirkut cameras, in which the negative might be 8″ or 10″ high and several feet wide and then contact printed. And those prints could be absolutely gorgeous (there’s a great book about this that contains many full-sized images.)

          But by definition, if you do panoramas, you are increasing the pixel count. If I have a camera in which the sensor is 3000 pixels wide and I make a 16″ wide print and I shoot a panorama of 10 images and with overlaps, they’re the equivalent of six images wide, that’s now 18,000 pixels in the same 16″ wide print. I don’t need a higher resolution camera to accomplish that. If you’re printing 16 foot images, then I’d agree that you’d need much higher resolution.

    • baked bananas

      Now I get it! The d7000 is just a d90 with more pixels. Having a better dxo rating than the canon 5d mk2 is extra gravy. And being a grand cheaper is just icing on the cake. Extra gobbledee gook would include dual card slots, metering with non ais lenses, less jelly video…

      • EC 2

        NEVER named the D7000. Read my post again! 😉

        • JustBro

          +1 for EC 2.

          I love you.

    • heartyfisher

      “I think that u’re kidding your customers (like me) or have very low opinion/respect of them and intellectual abilities. It’s quite obvious u’re developing something, unless u’re planning to close your facilities, Nikon.

      Who do you think the audience is for these statements? let me give you a hint, NOT for customers ! these statements are for their share holders. some of which probably know a whole lot more that many of us. We can only guess at what it means as we dont get the other info the big share holders get. sheesh calm down.

      • EC 2

        U’re contraddicting yourself. Infact, IF this “message from Nikon” is for the shareholders, people that, in your opinion, “know whole lot more that many of us”, it’s simply useless.

        The “audience” is everyone that READS and Nikon knows VERY well that customers and people like Thom Hogan analyze their financial results when available so, in my opinion, the “message” is a hint to the customers: Nikon 2011 Q3 financial results and the figures published above are PUBLIC, not some kind of reserved material for investors ONLY.

        I’ll calm down when I’ll decide to do so. 😉

        • heartyfisher

          You seem pretty calm now 🙂

          Those reports are mandatory for companies to produce. Their management can go to jail for falsifying information in these reports. on of the reasons why its so “useless”. They have to put stuff in there for their share holders. Its not produced by their marketing department. if you want to see what is for the customers go to the nikon website.

    • Gerry

      why not just sell your pro lenses and get canon pro lenses? The actual cost of switching isnt actually that much if you buy used pro lenses….

      how many picture panoramas are you taking?…. when I take 3 or 5 pictures for panos, the resulting file is HUGE.

  • ZoetMB

    Since Nikon exceeded their estimates for their first three fiscal quarters (Apr-Dec), but they’re keeping total fiscal year (ending March 2011) estimates the same, what this indicates to me is that new cameras are not coming this fiscal year. That means nothing new in the distribution chain before April of 2011.

    Also, they have managed to achieve a slight increase in the number of lenses sold per body. Last fiscal year, it was 1.49 vs. 1.63 for the overall (CIPA) market. For the current nine months, it’s 1.52 vs. 1.67 for the total market.

    • Analyst

      Good work! Although, while they would likely have raised their guidance if they had moved the release date for new products into Feb or Mar, a planned product release in Feb or Mar could already have been baked in to their original guidance anyway, so we don’t really know for sure.

      But you’re probably right, no raise in guidance is probably an indication that they don’t plan on a big sale of new cameras until after Mar (although they could announce the cameras, they won’t be able to book the revenue from selling them).

    • sirin

      actually, fits well in the timeline. even if they announce new cameras on feb 9th, they’re likely to be available for purchase around end of March – mid April.

      • Mock Kenwell


  • Analyst

    As a working financial analyst who looks at financial statements to value stocks all day long, I can tell you that they are riddled with platitudes and boilerplate.

    Basically, if a company’s management makes a general statement like “New generation digital cameras are under development” you should automatically assume that it is meaningless puffery unless they supply actual data to back it up.

    In this case, I would like to see estimated launch cycles (e.g.. third quarter 2011) or some kind of relevant guidance going forward (e.g. we estimate that our new generation of digital cameras will result in an increase in R&D expense for the year-end 2011 of X% over year-end 2010 and that new camera sales will contribute X cents per share to year-end 2011 earnings.)

    If you were reading Ford Motor Company’s financials, and they had one line that said, “New generation mid-size sedans are under development”, you would totally ignore it as boilerplate (i.e. “well duh! that should be going on 24/7 or they would be out of business in no time”). (You would probably also wonder why they used “are” instead of “is” but in Nikon’s case we’ll let it slide.)

    Realistically, Nikon probably just threw that in there because they thought it would look better if they had more bullet points under the “Imaging Company” segment.

    • sensor

      Just wondering: if they were getting ready to release a bunch of new DSLR’s wouldn’t their new estimates be higher?

    • lol

      that just goes to say analyst like you a dime a dozen, doesn’t worth much.
      Thom, and many others have repeatedly pointing out there is a culture context here, that the Japanese does this differently.

      If Nikon turns out releasing a newgen camera that’s very different than current product lines, are you going to quit your job?

      • Analyst

        I know you’re trolling, but maybe you haven’t ever heard of this concept:

      • Analyst

        Oh yeah, also, to quote the man himself:

        Thom Hogan:
        But several of the statements they made are just affirming dribble doublespeak. As in “yes, we know some of you think we’re behind on something, but we’re aware of that and will do something we think fixes that soon.”

        So is the statement in question genuinely informative, or is it just recycled filler material in a feeble attempt to assuage investors fears that Nikon isn’t spending enough on R&D and is losing the battle to Canon? Well, you be the judge:

        This quarter (2/3/11): “New generation digital cameras are under development.”
        Last quarter (11/4/10): “New-generation camera is under development.”
        Year end (5/11/10): “Development acceleration of new generation digital cameras.”
        3Q 2010 (2/4/10): “Concentration to develop next generation DSC with interchangeable lenses will continue.”
        2Q 2010 (11/5/09): “Concentration to develop next generation DSC with interchangeable lenses will continue.”
        1Q 2010 (8/5/09): “Concentration on development of new products exceeding customers expectation such as ArF immersion Scanner NSR-S620 and next
        generation digital cameras.”

        • heartyfisher

          +1 there is some info to be deduced from this. But for the guys who see in black and white, their high contrast filter removes these details to nothing.

    • dbas

      Agreed! Show me a tangible effect on earnings multiples, and I’ll believe it.

      Using financial analysis from camera websites (i.e. “the man himself”) is like visiting Bloomberg for camera reviews.

  • More money for Nikon, new generation under devellopment, futur D800 and D400 should be monsters if Nikon continue this way

  • The price of D7000 with body only at $1,200 is considered quite steep and there’s not much improvement as compared to the D90.

    I will still stick with my D90 for sometime.

    • Ano?

      The D7000 is a significant departure and upgrade from the D90. as well as incorporating many features found only in the D300s. Better check what you have been smoking.

      • anon

        Nikon D7000 Price is correct about picture quality.
        The D7000 is the better camera because of all the other features, but the difference in image quality alone is very small.

        • gt

          what the hell do you call increased dynamic range? that’s an improvement in picture quality

          • anon

            Keep your pants on gt, read what I posted instead of what you think I posted.
            I said “the difference in image quality alone is very small” not non existent.

  • mshi

    So they blame the poor performance of their Income Statement on lack of a new generation of digital cameras?

  • Goose

    medium…format? on the budget and/or for pros? ha, day dream.

  • Peter

    NOOO!, not new cameras, just when I bought D7000…

    Yep, could not wait for that D700 replacement. 🙂

  • broxibear

    Posted this in another thread but it seems to have gone unnoticed, it was in the news section on Nikon UK…
    “Nikon will Exhibit at the CP+ Camera and Photo Imaging Show
    TOKYO – Nikon Imaging Japan Inc. (Takao Nishioka, president) will exhibit at the CP+ Camera and Photo Imaging Show (Feb. 9-12 [Wed.-Sat.] at Pacifico Yokohama in Yokohama, Kanagawa prefecture).
    The Nikon booth exhibit will include “Nikon Solutions Stage” and “Nikon Technology Stage,” featuring explanations of photographic technique and culture by prominent photographers. There will also be “Nikon Performance Stage,” allowing visitors to experience the latest COOLPIX models, the D3100, D7000, D300S and D700 digital – SLR cameras. In addition to the three stages, the booth will include an abundance of content providing visitors with an actual experience of Nikon’s imaging products, technologies and services.”
    It mentions a Nikon performance stage to experience various models inc the D700… they wouldn’t be talking about the D700 if there was a replacement announced at the same event?

    • I doubt that there will be something else next week except the Coolpix cameras. I could be wrong, but if they announce a lens or a DSLR, this will be the first time in the 3 years [NR] history that I do not know anything about it.

    • heartyfisher

      Cool .. by your logic there will be a D5500 🙂
      and a D4 and a D400 .. err may be stretching that logic too far 😉

  • nebus

    Well it’s going to be interesting to see what their intentions are.
    Its important to take notice of the overall picture for digital camera trends with DSLR Digital back technology. At this point obviously Phase have the edge with their own new 80mp backs from their brand and their (newly acquired daughter/son) Leaf with their foresight of this size for FF MF backs and bringing DSLR operability to these formats that of course many of their customers are juggling between with their systems and DSLR offerings.
    However it’s obvious that Canon, Sony and Nikon are still pushing this beyond what Phase can deliver (in operation as opposed to IQ) and I think it would be foolish to think anyone but Canon would deliver the next generation in fulness as they have done in at least the previous two generations of digital technology for this format (now don’t get your Troll on about this please – there are really far to many historical markers to back this at this point especially market sales). but of course the first past eh post is not always the leader. It’s a shame that historically Nikon have been announcing their next gen. products only months before their competitor who have often trumped the but at this stage I think both companies believe the majority of their market share lies within their current user base so perhaps most upgrades may ( and I stress MAY) be developments purposely developed for the favour of users within that particular market base.
    Ultimately I think at this point we are witnessing (at least for MF digi back users, Canon 1DsIII & 5DII and D3x users) the IQ of their equipment equalling their lenses or bettering that and now noise/operation/video options becoming the next intention of development for market share and perhaps some features which they’ve previously not concentrated on (like perhaps 3d, AF, and flash metering options) to dissuade some users to trade across.
    As Nikon have said in the not too distant past – things will take a different timeline of change from now on. The current rate of change is not a predictable roadmap of the future.
    The current DSLR consumption rate must level as IQ gets to a saturation point of quality to affordability (isn’t it really amazing that a box the price of a 5dII give the image quality it does?) and now these companies will focus on developing features that further destroy the line between professionals and consumers as they have done so far.
    Its only my opinion of course – but as a pro who uses both Nikon and Canon SLRS, Contax and Hasselblad MF systems with Phase backs and beyond it’s a lot to worry about at night and a lot to just get one with as the day breaks each day.
    It’s been another long day in the studio and perhaps i need some rest ….

  • K

    When are they going to announce the d5100 or are they ever going to announce it?
    I don’t want to be waiting and it never comes.

    • Just A Thought

      This year the shift is rumored to be towards even numbered cameras. Gotta make last years stuff look old somehow. If that turns out to be the case then it’s kinda doubtful that a d5100 will be coming – unless they already had d5100 labeled bodies sitting in a warehouse waiting for the Thailand plant to start the production line. I’m look forward to the D4 bodies (rumours is that Momma might deliver different sized twins). That way I can pickup a hardly used D3S (for less than half the retail price which the local Doctors, Lawyers and Dentists will be dumping so as to buy a D4 and claim bragging rights to owning the latest and the greatest.

      • FX DX

        The moral of the story is that become a doctor, layer, or a destist, but don’t become a photographer.

        • Just A Thought

          “The moral of the story is that become a doctor, layer, or a destist, but don’t become a photographer.”

          You words struck me like a dagger to the heart because of their truth. One does not see Doctors. Lawyers and Dentists being pushed around by Bridezilla on weekends just to make car payments on a Toyota (note: not Lexus).

          To those younger than I, plse heed the wise words from FX DX. Sell all your camera gear on eBay, go back to school and become a Doctor, Lawyer, Dentists and I forgot the best of all Plastic Surgeon (you get to create the best T&A on the planet).

          If you start this Fall then you should be done and making enough to easily pay cash for Nikon’s awesome D6X and their upcoming unreal 70-210mm f1.8 (not a typo – yes f1.8)) lens.

          • Analyst

            Heh, yeah, high-end photography has never been cheap. But having the latest camera won’t do much for you if you don’t know how to use it. Back in the day when I was taking photo classes for fun at the local community college, you would see people walk in there with a Canon 5D, Nikon D3, Nikon D2xs or whatever, and a gripload of expensive lenses, but their pictures were AWFUL. Underexposed, overexposed, flash shadows everywhere, poor composition, cut off heads and feet – about what you would expect from grandma with her throw-away point and shoots on vacation.

            Most of those doctors, lawyers, and dentists buy the expensive gear because it’s expensive. It’s another attempt to fill the emptiness in their lives with a shiny new object. The same is true with nice cars (the Lexus you mentioned), nice bicycles ($15,000 Pinarello anyone?) and big houses (so they can store all the expensive stuff!).

            Also, FYI, a 70-210 f/1.8 would need to have a front element about 6 inches across and be about a foot long. Weight would probably be 8-10lbs. And it would probably cost $10,000. I’m not sure even a dentist with more money than sense would want such a lens 😉

        • broxibear

          Reminds me of that joke…
          What’s the difference between a large pizza and a photographer? The large pizza can feed a family of four.
          Where’s my lottery ticket lol ?

  • zzddrr

    Oh Lord, the comments in this Nikon report can only be compared to any of the Harry Potter books. Both are fairly tales 🙂

    It is clear, unless sony throws a bone Nikon has nothing. I must give credit to the sony r&d team to at least for trying. Nikon did shit last year and the year before. There was nothing that we can say innovative when it comes to dslrs.

  • baked bananas


    D700 replacement….2012

    24-70mm 2.8 vr 2……let us all pray.

  • I am waiting for a D700 replacement. They should hurry up a bit….

    • gt

      feel your pain so bad. This waiting is endless. It is now February of 2011 and we’re still as clueless as we were in September of 2010. fail fail fail

      • JustBro

        So true. It’s killing me.

    • gt

      I remember when there were some predictions that the camera itself would be released by february of 2011!

      • APB

        The March 2011 edition of the UK magazine Digital DSLR photography has a Nikon advert for the D700 on the back cover and there’s no mention of any rebates, so I think an announcement could be at least a couple more months away.

        It’s also possible that Nikon position the next FF camera between the D700 and D3s, with a price to match. Most of the posts here are concerned with either MP or ISO, but Nikon could also up the price by building in features like geo tagging.

  • VJ

    It seems like a fairly standard sentence to me to keep the investors happy… If nothing like that has been mentioned, and Nikon has not released that much, investors might get worried, assume thinks and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    What always puzzled me is why no camera manufacturer adopted an existing OS? They could combine knowledge from the pda or cellphone realm with their own knowledge. Equip the camera with some ports to allow for options (bluetooth, wifi, gps, compass, …), the OS provides the drivers for them so the camera manufacturers can focus on their own core software. An android (or symbian, meego, WinCE, …) camera but just running one custom application and only using the OS as a platform for driver support for all these hardware options and communication protocols seems to have its benefits to me…

    • Please don’t

      Thank god they don’t.

      If the camera freezes like my Andriod phone or iPad, who is going to pay the lost pictures.

      • VJ

        Fair point… 🙂
        But surely it should be possible to make a stable stripped down version…?

  • Dweeb

    Here’s a company that’s raked in a fortune over the past decade’s digital boom and can’t even put a simple cell phone GPS receiver in a 8,000 buck camera. Or a VR assembly in a 300 f4. Or for that matter VR in a $2200 24-70.

    Where’s the beef Nikon? All you are doing is flowing downstream with the flow while watching Sony innovate and erode your sales. But, hey, record sales PROVE you need not bother changing.

  • Gerry

    Why do you guys always bash nikon? If you hate the brand so much, why dont you switch to your dream brand of ______……. All you haters take away from good comments that are posted in here.

    • Gerry

      And I dont want to hear “oooooh, I am invested in glass” or “I have too many compact flash cards” or “I have 5 ENEL3’s that I cannot use on Canon” or “I want to stay with Nikon because girls like guys with Nikons”

      • broxibear

        “girls like guys with Nikons”… when did that happen?…and why didn’t someone tell me ?

    • Agree, there is too much hate in the thread. In my humble opinion ‘the new generation’ does not mean that camera can fly like a rocket or will bring a cup of tea when you shooting outdoors.

      Have patience on Nikon. It doing right.

  • WTF

    +1. true that

    But I think if Canon beat Nikon this year we’ll see alot of pissed glass/ compact flash cards and 5 ENEL3 batteries owners.

  • Kingyo

    “..under development”?.. is that another way of saying “a few years away”? I hope not!! 🙁

  • SNRatio

    The strong sales may explain why some of the expected releases have not materialised yet. And Nikon seems to be quite focused on novelty now: They want to release equipment that has some really new features – I don’t think it is only about competition, but also making old customers interested in upgrading.

    Also, the relatively meager profit may reflect not only strong yen, but also the use of more expensive parts in the new models. I guess this applies at least to the D7000.

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