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Recap of what’s next

I first want to start with a quote from Donald Rumsfeld (thanks for bringing that one up broxibear)

"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

We went through a lot of speculations in the last few days and I want to do a quick recap:

Known knowns: there will be a new DSLR-related and mirrorless camera announcements from Nikon in September. The DSLR related event should be on or around September 8th. The mirrorless introduction should be at the end of September. Expect four new lenses to be announced with the new mirrorless camera. Note that I said "DSLR related" announcement - there is a low chance that "DSLR-related" means a new accessory or lens only.  So far I am aware of only one upcoming DSLR that will probably be at the low end of Nikon's current lineup. There may be even two new DSLR cameras announced in the first week of September.

Known unknowns: no idea when the D700 and D3s replacement will come to life. As I said already, there could be a second DSLR announced in September that I am not aware of. Some rumors indicate that the D700 replacement will have 24MP and new AF system. That's all I have. Any future Nikkor lenses come in this category. No clue what is coming and when. I've mentioned several times in the past that a new 80-400mm lens is very high on the list of potential announcements.

Unknown unknowns: ?

This entry was posted in Nikon 1, Nikon D4, Nikon D800. Bookmark the permalink. Trackbacks are closed, but you can post a comment.
  • colomba

    I really need D400 to replace my old D80 pleeeeease! Stop with all this Coolpix aaahhhrgg

    • Funduro

      No soup for you! Ashton needs more cameras to push, specially PnS types. Glad I’m not in the market for a D800/D400/D4 otherwise the release expectation would be very anxiety friendly. I do think Nikon should not have this high wire camera release disclosure drama, who do they think they are, Apple?

      • mudpie

        Hope you have permission to use that image from Mr McCurry for your avatar…

    • m0m0

      i think the d300s is the next one in line to be replaced.. this makes sense because come to think of it, despite the d7000 being placed as a prosumer / enthusiast / semi-professional camera for the dx format, it has undoubtedly matched, if not overtaken, the capabilities and the technology of the flagship dx format d300s..

      also, if it’s true that sony is making sensors for nikon at the moment, there is a possibility that the 24 megapixel APS-C sensor that sony released with the A77 model might be in the d300s upgrade with a few tweaks in terms of noise control (iso 12800 as standard + up to ? iso 16000), video processing (full HD at ?60p, and improved d-movie auto-focus), and maybe an increased frame rate for photos (?9-11 fps)..

      if it is indeed a d300s upgrade, the prosumer / semi-professional dx format shooters would be in for a treat as nikon will now have a contender in the film+photography market that was widely dominated by canon for years.. although, this will also mean that the nikon fx models would be released at a later unknown date (possibly leading up to the london olympics in 2012) and have to be light years away from the technology they will introduce in the possible dx flagship upgrade..

      that’s the math that currently makes sense to me.. no one’s releasing full frame models at the moment and, as i have said to a reply in the other forums, there’s no sense in nikon releasing way ahead of everyone else in the market.. although there might be a big demand right now for a new fx upgrade, releasing a new fx lineup this early will make the fx bodies obsolete earlier than hoped as well..

      so i guess, everyone would just have to hang tight, develop technical photography skills, and save up for the upgrade later, and maybe invest in some good glass now as well.. because i’m pretty sure the new professional line up that nikon would release will be like an F1 car; we know it’s good but unless you have the skills to squeeze the best out of the camera, you will only be taking the same photos as you have with the gear you have now..

    • Mock Kenwell

      Hey don’t worry about it, Nikon. You take whatever time you need. We’re here for you. Our 10MP video-less D80s & D90s are pretty much as good as a full frame camera anyway. Why not just push the D4 & D800 back to 2013? You know, just to make sure you’ve got it right. That way, you can compete with the 5D Mk IV. The timing will be perfect. And keep really quiet about it so we’re totally surprised! Throw us off the scent by telling us the tsunami didn’t affect production at all. It’s not like any if us have internal purchasing schedules and budgets to plan or anything. It’s all good! But please! Keep the Coolpixes coming every 3 months or so! They’re so exciting and innovative! They really take my photography to the next level!

      • Rb

        Bravo!

      • fabian

        LOL, hilarious!!! Right on the money! We have all been craving these upcoming DSLRs but still no word.1

      • Rabi

        For real. I have no idea what Nikon is doing. They are cranking out boring P/S after boring P/S and have refreshed their consumer DSLRS, but are letting their pro line stay completely stagnant. Unless D700 and D3s replacements come out soon and have monster specs (including, for the first time on a Nikon camera, a serious commitment to video) Nikon is in trouble on the pro end.

    • Jeremy

      Want to replace the D80? Get a D7000 – brilliant, replaced my D200 with one. Superb camera.

      • Mock Kenwell

        Got one. Love it. But it ain’t a D700 by a long shot.

  • Davidb

    If the D800 is simply an update, Nikon might as well fold up the tent. Canon has put out very competitive cameras at more modest prices. If Nikon wants to stay in the game they need a fully updated D700 and keep the price close to where it already is.

    • R R

      +1

      • derWalter

        at least!

    • vinman

      Gah – you peeps who keep threatening to leave Nikon if they don’t do this or that – please leave already!!

      Any lack of a D700 successor in September won’t cause the failure of Nikon. That’s absurd. I have a D700 because I can neither afford nor justify the cost of a D3s or D3x – and my D700 will function just as well after a successor has been on the shelves for years. That said, I also want a FX DSLR with full HD video. I plan (hope) to keep my D700, as well for a light weight backup/second body (I’ll almost undoubtedly keep the MB-D10, though).

      If really feel so strongly that Nikon is on the bubble for you, and you’ll sell all your gear if they don’t give you what you want when you want it, good luck. You’ll be repeating this behavior annually for a long time to come…

      • Davidb

        You extrapolate too far. I didn’t say I was leaving Nikon. Nor did I suggest that if they didn’t have a D700 successor by September they would go under. I merely said if Nikon is interested in maintaining competitiveness they are going to need to do more than a simple update, and they need to price it competitively relative to similar offerings from Canon.

        Personally, I could care less about HD video and would prefer a more elegant D700, that was stripped of all that extraneous shit and was closer to an FA. They’d then have the D4 as the digital F5 and the D800 as the FA — lighter, but still tough.

        • vinman

          Sorry – in business terms “fold the tent”, “break camp”, “close up shop” all mean a business failure. That’s why I took your statement to mean that. As far as the FA, I think a digital FM would be cool, but my ultimate film combo was the F5/F100. That’s what Nikon has given us with the D3/D700.

          I agree – it’s time for Nikon to pee or get off the pot, but I also know that it’ll come when the products are ready. My D700 is still hammering away and I’ve yet to meet any working pros who are ready to jump ship if Nikon doesn’t introduce a new model in the immediate future – with the exception of a couple DSLR video shooters who are ready for 1080 in a D3 sized body. That’s still a pretty specialized market, and a niche at that. It’s here and there’s a market for it, but we still all agree that it’s image quality that drives sales in the long term. The D3, D3s, D3x, and D700 are still top of the game in that respect.

  • http://www.jstudio.sk razvan amarandei

    I’m waiting for D800 from February…@ that time, I’ve been to purchase my second D700 and they told me to wait 1-2 month because D800 will be … since then I’m still waiting. I did purchase D7000 for video.. not very happy. But if Nikon doesn’t give as a good official news till Sony’s A77 will reach the shops… definitely i will purchase A77. the specifications looks great for video.

  • Carlos R B

    I hoping for a 24mm DX lens…it’s about time….

  • Bob

    What about the D4X. Isn’t that supposed to come a few months after the D4? If it has video it will be a killer!

  • http://www.lifeinfocusexpressions.com Phil

    So, basically, nothing is known. Just wait and see.

  • Franek Dogentic

    What would be really cool is a d300s replacement. 18-24 Million pixel, better 51 col, better aff, 9 fps, video full hd with 24,25,30 and at least 48-50-60fps in full hd, 4.2.2.

    Even not being a full frame, this body would be kick*ss compared to canon.

    • Dr Motmot

      Hope springs eternal

  • ActionJunky

    My D300 is almost 4 years old. There has only been an update within that time. I will be upgrading my gear, or at least purchasing a Sony NEX-7 as a travel/backup camera. Will I get hooked on the NEX and turn away from Nikon? That is up to Nikon. A great photographer is not defined by the gear, but why would I not take advantage of the latest technology?

    I sincerely hope Nikon is planning 3-5 years in advance with their next update and not simply trying to keep up with today’s competition. Make the upgrade pro focused. Don’t even think about integrated a Facebook portal into a DSLR.

    • Canon User

      try using NEX first before you decide. I tried NEX 5 with the attached 18-200mm. I’ll be surprised if you will turn away from your D300s :-)

  • http://www.joshuacunliffe.com Josh Cunliffe

    @Admin – maybe time to update the Nikon buying guide?

  • http://ronscubadiver.wordpress.com Ron Scubadiver

    LOL, Rumsfield’s quote is amazing and the fortune teller image is so right.

  • R R

    Oh well.. my aims are that I am probably going to buy another D3x for my work, since the only thing Known, is that Nikon doesn’t produce products that will satisfy their pro market, great 24 MP camera with no video (D3x) great high ISO and super speed camera with crappy video (D3s) and great 12 MP FF camera (with no other significant specs) the D700 and NO video.. so for us full framers that want good pro video on a full frame camera, we might as well rent another brand.

    And if you are a Nikon user.. I recommend meditation.. that will keep you calm and peaceful while we wait another few years for the D4, not to mention the D4s or D4x

    BTW I wouldn’t trust Donald Rumsfeld in anyway what so ever..

    #IAmNikon #IAmLearningToYogaAndShit

    • http://tumbleweed-092.livejournal.com Slow Gin

      Sit down in a lotus pose and say ॐ

    • http://www.ricklewisphotography.com Rick Lewis

      @RR…so you are upset that Nikon has not turned into a video camera producer? Buy an HD Sony video camera. It has been my experience that the video crews I’ve seen at weddings or shooting commercials do not use DSLR’s for their video. They use high quality HD dedicated video equipment.

      I’m sorry, I just don’t get it I guess. Maybe I’m too old school. My D3 has served me very well, including a massive billboard ad. Not bad for a measly, low quality, 12mp camera:-)

      • nikoncert

        Here is the issue, a full frame sensor, like the one present on a Canon 5d Mark II gives fantastic HD video quality. In order to get this from a dedicated movie camera you’d need to spend upwards of 30k$. The RED, which is about that much money, doesn’t even have as large of a sensor as the 5k MkII.

      • R R

        I respect your opinion, I want HD full frame video for my backstage videos (I shoot mostly fashion) and I have 3 of the 4 f1.4G top prime lenses and I think they will work wonders in Full Frame Video.. a thing a Sony HD video camera simply cant match. I have done that with my old trusty and beautiful D7000 up to when my GF decided to keep that camera for herself, but still been such a beautiful camera , the DX sensor doesn’t provide the beautiful separation between the plains like a Full Frame camera does.

        Regarding the very old , very well discussed topic of Megapixels, I have done billboards since my D100 with 6 megapixels, but the undeniable truth is that Billboards DONT need high MP.. like magazine or catalogues do, and that is what I do more. I am not a monitor photographer that mostly uploads images to the web or the final use of his images is on a monitor, not even wedding photographers that print on LED printers or other print options need more than 12 MP .. but if you publish on a magazine you NEED more than 12 megapixels for different reasons, and I have said this here in the past and I will say it again, for starters, the format of a typical A4 magazine size is more square like than that rectangle like of a sensor, so you must always leave some space to be cropped, so the final image used from a 12 MP sensor on a magazine is more like 10.5 MP also if you get to print a 2 page spread 12 MP simply wont cut it, you will immediately see the loss of definition, so in my opinion at least 16 MP are required for magazines, but 24 MP from the D3x look fantastic even on a 2 page spread.

        I know the MP race is a thing Canon has pushed mostly to create a consumerism race but, for printing magazines is another story, other wise there wouldn’t be Hasselblad cameras with up to 50 MP , and dont get me wrong I love my D3x and my D700 … but honestly I wish for a FF camera that will provide full HD video and more than 12 MP to really be a backup to the D3x, besides I bought my D3x almost 3 years ago and the shutter is reaching 270,000 actuations and frankly that worries me, since some clients simply wont have the 12 MP files from my D700 so I think Nikon should provide us Pros with a FF high MP count camera soon, but since I dont think thats going to happen.. I am planning to spend another 8 grand on a D3x , in my eyes thats the only solution since Nikon service in my country is almost not an option when my current shutter dies.

        Thats all, I am not trying to be sarcastic or offensive, but yes .. I am a bit angry about all this speculation, so in the meanwhile I am going in to ¨Sit down in a lotus pose and say ॐ¨

        :)

        • Ronan

          If you shoot for mags then you are on the wrong forum.

          Go get yourself a H3D with a 60 MP back.

          THATS what WE use for magazines.

          • R R

            sure if you live in the US.. but us people in other countries do manage with less, unlike you who have it all.

        • venancio

          well said, and well meant… the 270,000 actuations can really scare the s***t of any user whose using a gear rated for 300k… yeah, so here goes… aummmmmm….

        • broxibear

          Hi R R,
          What you’ve posted is very misleading.
          Of course you can do a double page magazine spread with a 12mp sensor and achieve very good quality. What you should have said was that for you and your clients there’s a need for higher quality, hence the want for more mp.
          I’m looking at the D700 brochure, pages 4 and 5 are a double page spread. There is a loss of definition but it’s still pretty damn good…then when you look down to read the exif data at the bottom of the page you realise it was shot at 3200 iso.
          Fair enough, it may not be the quality for you or your clients for particular jobs, but sweeping statements like “if you get to print a 2 page spread 12 MP simply wont cut it” is pointless and wrong.

          • R R

            I respectfully disagree, that is your opinion based on the Nikon´s D700 brochure… any experience with 12 MP files printed on magazines of your own work? I have seen it over and over.

            • broxibear

              Hi R R,
              I’ve plenty of experience from magazines and advertising…the point of the D700 brochure example was because more people would have access to this than giving an actual magazine they may not be able to look at.
              If you read what I actually said you’ll realise I wasn’t saying the D700 and D3x give the same results. I was, and am, saying that your statement “if you get to print a 2 page spread 12 MP simply wont cut it” is plainly not true.

          • R R

            You know, the vast majority of my work is for fashion catalogues , I use the D3x there, the rest gets printed in magazines (I shoot for the biggest fashion event in Mexico) I shoot runway shows with my D700 , during that event , twice a year, my work (since I am the official photographer) my work gets sent to magazines in Colombia for example, and other countries for news media that couldn’t send a photographer to the show, and when I see the D700 printed on a cover of a magazine or in the inside it looks fairly good, unless they crop, and I dont mean a lot, if they crop some 30% or so.. loss of definition is noticeable (particularly to me that I often compare to published work of my D3x) . My competition at the shows mostly use 18 MP cameras, and even though those are APS-C sensor cameras their prints are fantastic. I dont use the D3x for the shows cause they dont pay as much as the catalogues and the fashion shows are shutter killers, besides the high ISO capabilities of the D700 are better than that of the D3x which tops at ISO 1600. Still my work there with the D700 is pretty good since most pictures are printed much smaller than a full page, that is they put 4 to 20 images in a single page , so they are small and comfortable.

            With the D3x in the other hand, I shoot celebrities (soap opera ones mostly) and the clients very often make the catalogues much larger than an A4 page, and very often we shoot 2 page spreads, the D3x is the only camera that Nikon offers that can comfortably can deal with that. But I´ll tell you something with my clients knowing, I have tested a couple of times my D700 in the same catalogue , particularly once that I had to go to a location that wasn’t so safe, so I told my client that , that single day I was going to use the D700 with the 70-200 f2.8G VR II only.. and not the D3x cause I didn’t want to risk it, of getting mugged or something. The end results were very interesting, the D700 stood its ground if I carefully compose so that only what is necessary gets cropped by the graphic designers, that is using the most area I can of the sensor and cropping the very least. The results were very good with the D700 at the beginning you could hardly tell from the ones of the D3x, but at closer look , details like fabric textures, shoe details, hair detail well that is where the D3x outperformed the D700 easily, and if the image was cropped more than the minimum necessary , that is not just to adjust its proportion to an A4 page , but cropped for creative purposes … thats when ¨it simply wont cut it¨, never mind a two page spread.

            In my opinion Nikon provided us with a great tool the D3x at a very high price, which is an impediment for most of us to get another second one ( I have been saving for ever to get another D3x) because Nikon failed to provide a second body that could really be a D3x back up body, like Canon did with the Eos 1Ds mark III and the Eos 5D mark II , the big expensive one for everyday professional use and the cheaper alternative ( just in case camera ) both with 21 MP … Nikon should have provided us pros with 2 high MP count cameras, in the same FX format. and now they probably will , maybe the D800/900 will have a 24 MP sensor , and its gonna be twicked so nicely that my D3x is going to become the back up camera , I suppose…

            I dont mean any disrespect to anyone with a 12 MP camera, but 12 MP are OLD… very OLD… Nikon is VERY LATE providing us with not just one 24 MP camera. And what angered me a lot , a long time ago is when I saw in you tube an interview in Photokina from somebody asking a high ranking Nikon representative a simple question, ¨why is the D3x camera so expensive? ¨ his response was .. ¨we have calculated that the D3x is intended for magazine photographers that probably work in advertising¨ ( my area exactly) ¨and they CAN AFFORD the camera¨, this guy never thought about getting TWO cameras… cause is a rule of thumb for a professional photographer not to have just ONE camera , one must have two! and to buy two D3x is not a simple task, and even harder for us in countries where photography don’t pay as much , and we get our equipment sometimes twice the price cause of taxes etc.

            • Sahaja

              Ahhh, I’ve always wondered why the D3x cost so much – since, going by the price of an A850 or A900, the sensor can’t cost *that* much more than the one in a D3s. Now we know.

  • carlgo

    The Nex-7 is very compelling, the EVIL system I was hoping Nikon would produce. It will also take lenses from other manufacturers by means of various adaptors. This is a bold product coming from a major company like Sony.

  • Kevin

    Off Topic:

    Admin, your sites all FUBARed on Chrome :(

    • http://500px.com/FriedToast Fried Toast

      Must be you. Looks fine to me on Chrome.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Kevin, works fine here – can you try to clear your browser’s cache pelase?

    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kazinvan/ Mike

      Works fine on Chrome for me too.

  • Phil S.

    Donald Rumsfeld’s quote is just weird. Sounds like the rambling of Brando’s madman in Apocalypse Now — I doubt that he knows what end of a Nikon to point at a scene

    • Beny

      What does it have to do with anything? He didn’t say it in regard to photography.

  • http://nikonkrab.multiply.com/ HotDuckZ

    I want 10 2.8DX with filter and in need of 24 MP FX now… :P

  • http://www.pitchmediagallery.com SMC

    Yawn…. Everyone is talking about jumping to Sony for a camera that underperforms using the same sensor as a Nikon due to inferior software/hardware/firmware? Sony shooters I know wish they had the low light performance of my old D300. So they are going to pack lots more pixels on the sensor, put an adaptor in front of it and have us use our Nikkor lenses on it? You people have waited years for a new FF camera and your feelings are hurt that CPix cameras were intro’d first, so instead of waiting another month you want to switch brands? Great plan, well thought out.

  • http://ThePhotoExperience.com Mike Dougherty

    Isn’t Nikon’s 24 MP body like $8,000 and Sony’s a77 about $1,400. I am a serious amateur, but even if the a77 is significantly inferior to the Nikon, it’s also significantly cheaper. I previously “took a bath” on a D2X whose original cost was $5,000, I’m not going to do that again.

    • Ronan

      D2X was one of the best DSLR made.

      I can’t imagine why you are whinning?

    • Jabs

      Nikon’s D3x = Full Frame or FF

      Sony’s A77 = Cropped sensor or DX

      The Nikon has 16bit output and extreme clarity

      The Sony is quite different as in maybe lousy and over-hyped.

      Big sensor professional tool -versus- a maybe pretender

  • One More Thought

    Here’s my prediction, based solely on lowered expectations: I believe the new DSLR from Nikon will be a D3100 upgrade/replacement, etc…they tend to update their low end every year…and it seems they are very focused on their consumer segment.

    I don’t think we’ll see any update to the D7000, as some have speculated…it’s a great selling camera with state of the art specs as it is…

    At this point I believe Nikon will announce the D4 late this year, maybe early next…and then ship early next year…

    As for the D700 replacement, now I believe that Nikon will follow their pattern, and release that well after the D4…so I am not looking for a D800 until well into 2012…

    So I believe that for this year, we’ll get only the lower end DSLRs, the new mirrorless, and the coolpix line of course…

  • http://photoartbymark.zenfolio.com photoartbymark

    i know stuff is coming but i dont know when

    • Beny

      Now I am totally relaxed. I couldn’t imagine that staff is coming, let alone when. :-)

  • ZoetMB

    As I’ve posted before, whether it’s low end or high end, there has to be new Nikon DSLRs coming well before March 2012 because they have upped their sales projections for their 2012 fiscal year (ending March 2012) and that can only happen with new bodies AND they can’t just be announced – they have to be shipped for them to book the revenue. And if it’s low end, it has to be something that they think will get them sales that the D3100 or D5100 aren’t already getting them. So I think it is middle end (D400, D800) or something close to that range.

    As for pricing, expect the worst unless Japan devalues the Yen by then. Nikon is expecting the year to average at 80 Yen to the U.S. dollar, but today, it’s only at 76.63. Back in 2007, it was over 120 so a camera that is priced 33% higher than in 2007 is actually priced the same. So don’t blame Nikon, blame the U.S. Government for printing dollars. It isn’t that Nikon has raised prices, it’s that the U.S. dollar is worth less.

    • CSharper Photography

      I like your logic. My D300s stopped working while on vacation. Dead as a door know. I want a new FX body so I can have two bodies on my next trip.

      Come on Nikon, I’m loyal but give me something to buy

  • John

    Nikon WANTS you to switch to Canon….
    They abandoned pro’s long long ago.
    Nikon is concentrating on consumers.
    Thats why they put 720 video
    in $5,000 cameras.
    And 1080 video
    in $300
    cameras.

  • http://www.fotografn.se Niclas Bågenheim

    Why does everybody seem to expect a D800?
    Last time (D300/D3) there was a FX and a DX release, why wouldn´t Nikon do the same again? (D400/D4)
    Sonys A77 seems to be tha A700 of four years ago, which could mean that part of it would be the new DX D400 (that I personally would prefer).

    Exciting anyway, we´ll have to see, but try to keep your emotions on mother earth when the D800 isn´t coming for another six months:-)

  • MB

    Actually we don’t know anything.
    I am for example pretty sure mirroless camera will not be announced in September.
    And I am now also pretty sure D800 will be announced this year.
    But I do not know any of this for sure ;)
    Are you hiding something from us dear Admin?
    Maybe we should organize a bet on this and see who wins.

  • Anton

    Unknown unknowns ->
    Nikon will add cell phone capabilites to their high end DSLRs

  • Peter

    OK now I get it. NR Admin is studying us a-la “big bang theory” “Sheldon and I had sex and I am starting an herb garden…” Sociologists must have a field day here. I like the news and a LOT of the posts that make me smile or think, Hmmmmm. 2012 London Olympics, best conclusion I’ve heard so far. Nikon surely needs to make up revenue for the earthquake/Tsunami, the USA market isn’t as uber priority to Japan as it once was (think China and yes I am talking strategic planning here), and oh yes, they are selling the D3 line as fast as they can make it. Me thinks some other decision tree is in effect that is in the realm of unknown unknown. Japan puzzles me and I’ve been seeking to understand why they do Art and Craft so very well for thousands of years (yes, I’ve only been doing the seeking part for about 45 of those.) For us in the USA perfection is a sort of goal. For the Japanese it is almost just a starting point for their version of “the whole picture.”

  • Anton

    Donald Rumsfeld missed one more thing:

    unknown knows, that is things we don’t know that we actually know.

    For instance we might hypothesize that a mirrorless camera will be announced in September, and if it actually did then at this moment this hypothesis will be an unknown know.

    • Anton

      unknown knows -> unknown knowns

      this hypothesis will be an unknown know -> i ment that
      this in this case this hypothesis will be a known, but we don’t know that yet. Therefore this known will unknown.

  • http://photoartbymark.zenfolio.com photoartbymark

    waiting, but waiting for irene

  • http://photoartbymark.zenfolio.com photoartbymark

    this unknown will soon be known

  • broxibear

    Since so many posters are commenting on the Donald Rumsfeld quote I thought I’d clear up why I initially posted it.
    It was nothing political and it wasn’t as admin/Peter has used it to illustrate what he knows and doesn’t know. I posted it to highlight the fact that all the predictions from various sites concerning Nikon have been wrong, and that nobody knows what is going on.
    When Nikon do announce something I’m sure some smart ass will come on here and post “I told you so, the people at http://www.knowitall.com said that all along”…but considering that every possible combination of models, mp etc has already been predicted somewhere, someone’s bound to be right ?
    Fretting over a future announcement, or lack of, isn’t going to speed anything up and isn’t good for your health.
    Let the pieces fall where they fall and make an informed choice then.

    • Anton

      “When Nikon do announce something I’m sure some smart ass will come on here and post “I told you so, the people at http://www.knowitall.com said that all along””

      As i mentioned above, this is called unknown know.

  • peter

    +1 broxibear (though I don’t really understand the origin of that)
    I do believe some are truly suffering over this. I was luckier than most. I didn’t get my first ‘D’ camera until 1.5 years ago. It has all been uphill for me and as a skier that just meant the downhill part was the best to come. I remember the longing for an F2 that never happened in all it’s iterations. When I got an F3 well, a lot of you know what I mean. I work in IT and have shunned ebay forever. Now I can wile away hours just doing a search on Nikon with no other parameters and be thrilled by the various offerings and the way they change from week to week. I can not afford ANY new camera right yet, but when I can, even if it is a D5xs I am sure that everything from the un-boxing, to the paying of the bill will take on a dimension similar to that F3 and my currently “almost out of fashion”, D300s. Oh how I wish about 25% of your readers could simply revel in the ease of picture taking and appreciate the astounding beauty that can be acquired in a fraction of a second with this glass and these cameras. I can reach out and pull details that are getting harder to see, all be it slowly, and actually do just sit at my computer and study the detail in my own photos like I never did on film. An art form that with 2 dimensions provides so very much to contemplate and appreciate about the ever so tiny, little blue planet. Low and behold, a tool choice in my CS4 and NX2 that can add grain! I ran from it except in the most tangential macro photographs that I did as a teenager. What it will be like to step through that portal and see photography in the next 100 years. Even at the half century mark, I can imagine being a bit envious of the very young and curious.

    • broxibear

      Hi peter,
      I know exactly what you’re saying.
      There’s definitely a difference between photographers who started with film and moved to digital, and those who started with digital.
      Each to their own I guess…andit would be a boring world if we all liked the same thing ?

    • Bill

      People have cut down NR and Nikon on here for quite some time.
      I think it is great to have a site to read about upcoming equipment.
      I have stayed with Nikon since my Photomic FTN, Nikkormat, FE, F3, N80, D100, D200 and D7000 and I really don’t have an idea how many lenses over the years that have come and gone.

      I loved my Hasselblad, but they have totally dropped the ball by not developing a low priced Digital back for the 500 series cameras. I sold it to get the D7000.

      I am pleased to be able to come here and view the rumors and read the comments from individuals. I agree with some of the posters on here that indicate they would wish the total negative individuals would go ahead with their threats to buy Canon or Sony and we can say, C-ya later.

      Smile, be happy, for something that will satisfy most of us will surely be on the horizon.

      • Jabs

        @Bill

        Good comments, but I was wondering HOW they would attach an electronic back to the 500 series?

        Perhaps they went totally electronic and upmarket and then lost their loyal customers as in outrageous prices.

        I would have loved to see Fuji continue with their GX680 and then add an electronic digital back, but they also did not, so don’t know.

        Long time shooter here too, but not much medium format (too slow) but YashicaMat TLR user due to cost and simplicity PLUS 120 and 220 Velvia 50D looks great on it. Used lens hood and filters with it and great results but weird looking camera as sometimes I used two filters (one on each lens -lol). One filter to take with and the other identical one to envision the scene! I even tried it with a polarizer and was that a job or hard and frustrating. I think they were like 39mm or about filters.

        Pointed my F3HP at the scene, hit the exposure lock and then set the Yashica to the same exposure as the F3 had metered the scene as, and then took pictures with both of them of the same scene – lol.

        Still got the shots too – awesome.

  • Sly Larive

    While waiting on a FF, I’ve decided I’d like to re-introduce a midrange zoom in my gear. I had sold my last one with my old camera and decided to simply continue with primes, my UWA and my 70-200 VR II. Now, I can get a used 24-70 for an OK price. I know it is in good condition but I’d be saving about 350$ instead of buying new. Still, something itches when I think Nikon may release a new FF camera.

    The 70-200 VR was introduced in 2003 and “replaced” in 2009. IIRC, the 24-70 was introduced in 2006. How likely do you guys think a new 24-70 could be announced with new pro cameras? Perhaps a VR model? I’d have to wonder how expensive that would be though. The current 24-70 isn’t without fault but it is an amazing lens. Still, seems silly to buy a lens when another one could be announced… Or could it? I know the 80-400 is due to be replaced MUCH more so than the 24-70, but with Nikon we never know…

    My other option could be to buy a Tamron 28-75 non-BIM and see what Nikon releases later on.

  • peter

    1st – some kind of Instamatic (a cartridge, smaller than 35mm but much bigger than 110), 2nd Exacta VX IIA, 3rd Nikon Photomic TN, 2nd iteration, modified the Photomic TN to be an F Photomic Ftn and man does that light meter work now, 4th Nikon F3 (yum), 4th Nikon D300s. Bill, glad to hear another voice with perspective. Tragically my Dad had Canon, multiple bodies, cases of lenses, and when Canon threw him under the bus by not supporting their mount, has quit photography completely. Broxibear, “to each her/his own” is that double edged sword again. Without it we who enjoy photography and have gotten into one brand or more can hopefully, I say hopefully, enjoy the diversity that competition has created. I am still fascinated by the Sony A77 video sales thing. Let those who need “the edge” pick their own, someone will refine it, perfect it, make a tool that helps the shooter refine her/his vision. I like the edge of Nikon, feels more like an old family katana from the 16th century and less like “the latest thing.” For me satisfaction has always been fleeting, but I am an American and for now that will have to be my excuse.

    Good Night Irene.

  • Jabs

    Something to TEST your visual acuity, perhaps?

    http://www.eoshd.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/comparison.jpg

    My take:

    1st – Canon 5D MK2 by FAR
    2nd – Sony NEX-5n by a squeaker – 60D wins some and NEX wins some in details
    3rd – Canon 60D
    4th – Sony A77
    5th – Panasonic GH2

    Comment:
    Their monitor must be rally bad or they don’t know HOW to or WHERE to look for real detail in a photograph and perhaps they miss this because of a slightly out of focus image in a few of their comparisons = GET a real photographer to do your TESTS and you do the writing and Web work.

    HINT – Look to the right of the IMPORTED ALE red band and see details missing in the other shots.

    Look at the top of the bottle cap and see NOTHING in the Sony NEX-5n shots

    Download Color Management 0.5.3 ADD-on and use Firefox 6.0, perhaps.

  • Bill

    Peter,
    It is the old story, HE WHO DIES WITH THE MOST CAMERAS, WINS.
    I have had Canons, Several Yahica TLR’s, Mamiya’s, 4×5′s, Hasselblad, Leica, Olympus.
    I just like cameras. I have been doing photography since I was 16. I am now 64.
    I took a trip with photographer friends to Zion N.P. and Death Valley. They all gave me a hard time because I had 10 cameras in my arsenal. 2- 4×5, 2- 2 1/4′s, 1- digital, 5 – 35′s and many, many lenses. I learned my lesson once when my primary camera died on a trip from one end of the nation to the other and all I had left was a point and shoot 35mm. I carry three cameras with me to all out of my area shoots now.

    Jabs, the Pro/prositute comment…Never forget to photograph the prostitute too, so you get your money’s worth. SMILE !!!

    • Jabs

      @Bill

      Why would you want to photograph your own sin?

      NAW – lol

      Good comments by you too – enjoy your day!

  • Bill

    Jabs, I believe they have digital backs for the Hasselblad now, Lief (Leif?), Phase One and I think even a Kodak. But $13,000 is the least I have seen for a back. I could have nearly 2 D3x’s for that.
    I was kind of waiting for a decent back with about 12 to 16mp for around $1,500 to $2,500.
    I think it would sell quite well with the amount of 500′s out there and revive the Hasselblad without spending $25,000 to $35,000.
    I like my Nikons, all issues with repairs (3) over the years have been user caused….drop, mirror break while cleaning sensor when shutter unexpectedly closed, and a bad memory card that damaged the pins. None of my Nikons just quit. That has to say something about build.

    • Jabs

      @Bill

      Great, as I did not know that they had digital backs for the Hasselblad 500 series. Price is kinda high though, but it probably is hard to make them in smaller quantities at a certain price and then sell them to photographers who are really picky about details. I think that many of the medium format digital back manufacturers are using Kodak sensors and even Leica uses them in its’ S2.

      Nikon left in place compatibility from the film generation to digital and got laughed at then, but now it seems like that strategy was brilliant and more forward thinking than all others.

      I was kinda surprised when Hasselblad seemingly abandoned their mainstream workhorse 500 series and offered no upgrades from film to digital, as I loved their bodies but never really used one. I see where Mamiya has a camera that can both shoot film and digital via a back change, so that was what I expected from them, but alas they did not see it that way.

      Maybe Mamiya gets it and others forgot?

      Never had a Nikon go bad on me once, but of course I am really meticulous and do not allow any of my children or their mother to use them much, so perhaps that contributed to their longevity also.

  • http://www.fabriziobelardetti.com Fabrizio

    Nikon should be a conservative company, and based on flagship camera’s announcement date, D4 should come out about 30 months later D3s introduction, in Feb 2012:

    Nikon D1 Jun 1999 (20 months)
    Nikon D1H Feb 2001 (29 months)

    Nikon D2H Jul 2003 (19 months)
    Nikon D2HS Feb 2005 (30 months)

    Nikon D3 Aug 2007 (26 months)
    Nikon D3S Oct 2009 (30 months?)

    I think I have to change my Santa’s wish..

  • http://www.robkrueger.com Rob Krueger

    I am incredibly disappointed in Nikon. I have spent thousands on their lenses, and switching camera makers is just not an option. I would be set, happy, and fulfilled to go out and purchase a D3s, but I am on edge waiting on these “announcements” in hopes I can make a real jump and get a D3s or two d700 successors. I don’t want to be behind. Get a D3s and then have a D4 show up in a month.
    I love that I am a Nikon user because I know their systems are the best fit for me as a photographer. I hate that there is no evenhanded competition to Canons Mark II and they are well on their way to replacing that camera. Nikon has the ISO hands down. The video can’t compare on their high end DSLRs, and the resolution is obviously sufficient, but half that of Canon. Price is the only other thing Nikon can’t ever get close against Canon.
    Disappointed… and that is sad.

  • josepherley

    I give up on Nikon, have been waiting now for too long, I go and buy the C5D MkII next week, problem is I have to buy a set of FX canon lenses as well, which I have for Nikon. I won’t get anywhere near the price of the Canon new lenses for my 2nd hand Nikkors, pissed off.

    • rob

      You would buy a 5DMkII now? Canon is at the same stage of updates, check out Canonrumors, I’m at the point where I would buy EITHER one as long as someone releases a new FF camera soon!

  • Michael Bond

    With regard to the thread about those starting with film and having moved to digital vs. those who have simply started with digital; the same could be said of this entire conversation. This announcement anxiety is NO different today than it was early on in the 35mm film days – the difference being we didn’t have blogs to rant on then. We simply discussed these things at shoots and camera stores. I’d speculate that 99% of you merely WANT a new DSLR with this or that feature and perhaps 1% of you are in a situation where you genuinely “need” one at this moment; and no, shooting 2 page A4 spreads is NOT a requirement for anything over 10mp regardless of what country you shoot or print in. You have either a composition problem or an editing problem, not an equipment problem.

    My 2cts.

  • http://historyview.blogspot.com harkabir

    I am not waiting anxiously for a new DSLR from Nikon but I do feel “cheated” by Nikon in a way.
    I have been clicking film since 1992; F5 / F90 / F100 then moved immediately to DX format with D1x, D70, then D2x. My D2x is still my main body. I have about 6 or 7 great Nikkor lenses.
    I shot on 35mm film for 10 years before moving to APC digital. It’s just not the same. No doubt the D2x gives fantastic pro results. But the crop factor does matter at the end of the day. The arrangement of objects in the plane does matter. FF really is better than DX (for me, not for everyone though, I know and respect this). And finally HD video 1080 is not a luxury but a necessity now. When I say I feel cheated by Nikon, I say this with anger and disappintment but not hate, because I had always believed in Nikon’s system and loyally stuck with them for a long time.

    Here in India, most professionals, especially the younger ones, have moved to Canon in particular to the 5D M2. And for most it’s not the 24MP which attracts them to the 5D, but the FF and HD video. In fact rentals options for Canon are sprouting up every day but for Nikon they are stagnant at best. This also means that with fewer rental options, a pro Nikon user has to buy a lot more lenses and bodies than a pro Canon user. Now in India, in wedding photography, fashion, glamour, family portraits, celebrity shots, even for industrial product shots, every one has started asking for HD vids along with the still pics. What choices does Nikon offer me to cater to this remunerative demand:
    1. D3s – Such a high price for a 3+ years old technology. Very safe and very fast cars can be purchased for less money in India. For such an exorbitant price one can easily move lock, stock and barrel to the 5D and through in a few fantastic Canon lenses as well. And I am not even considering the extra spending cash from the resale of the existing Nikon system here.

    2. D3x – FF. No video. Might as well buy the D700.

    3. D700 – FF. No video.

    4. D7000 – Dx. 1080 video

    Which of these can I choose as my main body and which as a backup body? Keep in mind that the main and backup should roughly have the same capabilities. Should I opt for two D3s. Or for a D3s and a D7000 (again no FF but will have to make do). Wow! lotta money involved in either of the two options.

    At the end of the day for a professional it boils down to getting business and delivering on commitments made. It is becoming increasingly difficult to compete with Canon shooters, who spend less money for more features. Skills can not overcome absence of HD videos capabilities or defraying a lot of extra costs for FF. So many entire full length feature films are being shot using FF DSLR cameras. In the near future, most DSLR cameras (entry/prosumer/professional,call them what you will) will need HD video capabilities.

    Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to opt for the Cannon 5D M2. The 24MP of 5D over the 12MP of the D3s don’t tempt me too much. 12 MP RAW is enough data to deal with any post processing needs using L3′s non destructive engines. Further, why would I want to spend money on 3 + years old tech, new lenses, new system and have to necessary through away all of my fantastic Nikkor lineup.

    It is understandable that Nikon’s ultimate aim is to maximize their shareholder’s wealth and to this end their fast moving segments such as Coolpix and entry DSLRs should be their priority. Perhaps high end DSLRs and pro DSLRs just don’t bring in enough profits to justify too much proactive decision making.

    Nikon has served me well. I am willing to be patient and wait for some more time. But I am fast running out of choices. I hope Nikon comes out with a sub $3500 FF body which shoots HD videos very soon. I know that a lot of people in this thread feel the same way. Others don’t need a body which can compete or better the 5D at a similar price. I understand that too.

    I love Nikon. But I do feel cheated.

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