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The end of the Nikon D3x rumor mill and what’s next

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Obviously the Nikon D3x images were leaked on purpose. You can almost tell that someone was monitoring NR and 45 minutes after my post, the images were removed. And then the Nikon Pro magazine release the next day... this is already a "standard procedure" by many companies.

Expect all Nikon web sites to go down for a short time on November 30th at midnight (US Eastern time), and this will put an end to the D3x rumor mill.

What's next?

I would say D40/D40x/D60 is next in line to be updated. D40x is already discontinued in many stores and D40/D60 went down in price significantly (D40 goes for $409.95, D60 for $532.39). My prediction - January 2009. Live view is a must and video would be a logical consequence. What will be the new model number? D60x? D65? D10? We will know soon...

I also started getting tips about a new Nikon SB-700 flash.

Lenses? This is the toughest one to figure out.

We will have to wait a bit longer for the D400 (maybe mid 2009) and D800 (late 2009) and let's don't forget the Nikon MX.

...and next time when I say that I am 90% sure - believe me :-)

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  • http://www.sierracrestphotography.com Mark

    When will D-800 comes out? The true 24 MP landscapers, dust shaker dream camera. I’m not buying another brick to haul into the back-country.

  • http://www.8x10.se Lars

    Nah, the leaks this last week were accidental – simply because Nikon would have so little to gain from building expectations this late. With all that is going on around Monday’s launch event it’s surprising and impressive that there have not been more leaks. Not even Apple is this tight-lipped.

    OTOH if images and specs on D3x were leaked in a reliable way the day before 5DII or A900 was announced, then I would agree with you.

  • http://dotcrimemanifesto.com/ PHB

    Sales of DSLRs are expected to be sharply down this year due to the B**h fiscal crisis. Circuit City has gone Ch 11 already and Sears and Macys may follow after Xmas. We are also going to see a large number of smaller specialist photo stores fail.

    That is actually one reason I am expecting a high markup on the D3x – Nikon is not going to want to risk a huge amount of capital on building a large number in advance. So they will be scarce. They may well allow the dealers to take large margins to help keep them in business.

    I don’t expect there to be a problem with inventory of pro/prosumer cameras (D300 and up). And the D90 is a brand new design good for at least a year. Whether there is a new D60 will depend on the amount of unsold stock they have on hand. My guess would be that the factories were making the D60 run in July ahead of the D90 run in August.

    Needless to say we will not see a new D60 if there are a hundred thousand D60s siting unsold in a warehouse. I don’t think that the entry level is going to be driven by megapixel madness for quite a while. The D60 is all about capturing market share that can be upsold with more lenses and new bodies later on.

    Besides which, any new budget model would surely be introduced to take the Xmas 2009 market which means not before August 2009.

  • Obscula

    I doubt Nikon pays any attention to what happens on this website.

    I would believe that it was an accident on their part. They may have notices some file hits from the outside.

    • Jason

      We don’t know. But overestimation of one’s own capabilities is not unique to nikonrumors.com, we have seen that on other websites like dpreview.com before.

  • Chevypower

    D100 image sensor filtered down to the D40. D2x, went to D300, D90, and supposedly now D60x? D3 sensor went to D700 – what next? I don’t think that one will continue – but I could be wrong. D3x to D800 to D90x to D65? Or whatever they will be called.

  • Klaas

    Naming of future Nikons will be more and more a difficult job. What to do in the Dxx for exemple?

    Wouldn’t it be easier to start a new system of naming?
    FX 1 and so on (FX format pro level)
    FX 10 and so on (FX prosumer)

    DX 1 aso for professional DX format (D300 family)
    DX 10 aso for prosumer DX format (D90 famlily)
    DX 100 aso consumer family (D40 family)

    MX for midformat

    • http://dotcrimemanifesto.com/ PHB

      I have been thinking we might see something of the sort as well. Which might be why Thom and others have suggested that the D3x is not going to be called that.

      Setting out a number scheme is a good way to set out a product roadmap. But I don’t think that we would see anything quite that logical.

      For a start, I think that the new camera would be the FX3, not the FX1.

      The priority I would see in such a scheme would be that the DX and FX versions of the same body would have the same number.

      So I don’t think we will see a DX-n series used at all. Which means that either the mid and budget ranges will have to share a number range again (cf D50/D70) or there will have to be a fourth number range which would be thousands.

      I can actually see the budget range being DX10, the mid DX100 and the pro DX1000, I am afraid. That would mean that the successor to the D90 would be the DX100 which is logical. And same for the D300 to DX1000. The successor to the D60 is the DX10, but that is actually a plus when you are trying to reel folk in with a budget, cost conscious model.

      I would see the next year as being a good time to make such a change. It would mean that they can start the numbering scheme with a flagship model.

      They can then simply renumber the D300 and D700 series cameras as existing supplies run out, same for the D90.

  • Pablov

    yes, naming is becoming a trouble.

    Specifically for the Dxx line

    The other (Dxxx and Dx) could continue without problems because they won’t overlap

    • rhlpetrus

      My guess: DX50 or DX10, depending on level intended. Released for PMA 2009 (late January).

      Lenses, who knows?

      MX: forget it.

  • Chevypower

    I think DX1, DX10, DX100, DX1000
    DF1, DF10, DF100, DF1000
    DM1, DM10, DM100, DM1000

    This would keep it consistent with Digital = D prefix, but allow Nikon to go a new direction. Starting with F could cause confusion with the film format. They could still keep the suffixes X, H, Z for updated variations

    • http://dotcrimemanifesto.com/ PHB

      I can see using DF instead of FX and DX. But the main attraction would be so that the new camera could continue the ‘D’ flagship numbering scheme as the ‘DF3′.

  • http://dotcrimemanifesto.com/ PHB

    Now one thing that has interested me for some time is the possibility of adding a global electronic shutter to a DSLR. There are several reasons for doing this that would affect the bottom end of the range.

    The post got too involved so I threw it onto my own blog.

    http://dotfuturemanifesto.blogspot.com/2008/11/more-nikon-speculation-global-eletronic.html

  • Pablov

    Was the D3x planned to be announced (or released) on March 2009 ?
    Was this the “Big” thing ?
    it’s possible to consider this was the DSLR to be launched at hat event aimed to portraits, weedings, etc

    I guess Nikon hurried this up. Maybe competition, strategy or whatever.
    Although there was a firmware containing 24+ MP code since long ago for a D3… That makes me think this camera -D3x- has been planned since long ago (and probably already being manufactured)

    That would also explain the lack of “new” features besides the higher res sensor. Seems to be almost a D3 with just higher MP.

    And now what?
    some respectable people telling about DSLR with video at a forum?

    “Nikon predictions” seems confusing to me.
    1st there was NO more new DSLR this year….
    Later some telling about new features in a new DSLR…

    hmmmm

  • Patrick Smith

    How do you think prices will fall (D700 and D3) after the release of the D3X?

  • Ron

    “…and next time when I say that I am 90% sure – believe me ”

    I did. Prior to Photokina this year your site indicated “Confirmed” on new 70-200 2.8 and 85 1.4. I had just purchased both of those lens the week prior to your “Report” and have still yet to use my in store credit minus 10% restocking fee being I returned both based on your “Confirmed” status.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      sorry – I remember that: multiple sources sent me the same wrong information in short period of time. One of them has always been right before. What could I do? This is what trigger this new percentage indication – it is much better than “confirmed”.

      • Ron

        No Worrie’s… As stated “What Could You Do” At least I’m on the top of the list if/when the new lens come out :)

      • http://dotcrimemanifesto.com/ PHB

        Nothing is ever confirmed until the product comes out.

        Plans can change.

  • Anonymous

    oh yes…Nikon waits with baited breath to see what this site does next and of course, changes their entire web and print campaign costing untold thousands! Get over yourself dude! Most of what is posted here is uh…well rumors! You can hardly call the few times you guess correct a new market trend…what B.S.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I am telling you the facts, as it happened. You draw your own conclusions and let me draw my own. Are we cool?

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