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Some more digging on the leaked Nikon roadmap

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I do realize the consequences for Nikon if the leaked roadmap is real. I just want to emphasize on the fact that the leak came from the Czech forum grafika.cz (here is the exact translated link again). NikonRumors and many other sites consecutively picked on that news. The post in question came from an unregistered user named NikonRumor (that's not me) with an IP address of 205.212.73 .--- A quick IP address geolocation search shows that the comment was posted from Englewood, Colorado and the IP is owned by a company called NTT America Inc. (www.nttamerica.com). NTT America is a subsidiary of NTT Communications, the international and long distance arm of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (Japan).

nikon-leaked-roadmap

I cannot link the Colorado IP address of a Japanese company with the Czech forum and the potential leak from Nikon UK, but I do know for a fact that Nikon does use a third party IT company in the UK. Of course this could all be a hoax from somebody with a lot of free time on their hands. I do not know and I do not have any other information on that topic besides what was already posted on the Czech forum. If Nikon Corp. would like to make an official statement on this rumors, here is my contact form.

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  • Mark

    NTT = Nippon Telegraph and Telephone. Hmm….

    • Mark

      And for clarification, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone = the Japanese national phone company (i.e. NTT East, NTT West, NTT DoCoMo.)

    • Fireye

      NTTA is a wholly owned subsidiary of NTT, if I remember correctly. However, don’t take the IP address info as proof of someone from Japan being involved with this leak. NTTA provides colocation, managed hosting, and whole caged environments (if you can afford it).

      The NTTA IP address could simply be a proxy.

  • Pablov

    This is pretty interesting.

    My concerns are many.
    Some about Nikon themselves, that if this is true they are really working hard and that’s great.
    Some others are because of the IP and source: Someone working at a company providing IT services would risk posting in a forum where the IP is revealed.
    BUT, it’s pretty weird the forum is in a foreign language, and the info told to be coming from UK.

    I think there are 2 possibilites:

    1- Someone is telling a lie using lot of free time. (either from CO, USA or using some proxy that he/she could have found in that network and then that’s why the IP appears as from that location)
    2- It’s true and the person is from CO, USA or is from other place and used the above method to cover his/her real IP.

    The forum admin can see the full IP address.
    The network administrator of ATT (205.212.73.xxx range) can do some checks and see if there is an open public proxy working that someone could have used it
    (in fact, any people can do that……not only the admin)
    If there is no proxy, there is still the chance of a “bumper” or another techniques to use someone else’s IP to then connect to other site, although I guess it would be more difficult and less probable.

    This indeed deserves a bit of investigation….

    • Pablov

      the Czech forum’s admin (i was refering to him when I said “forum’s admin”) can also scan the real IP (4 octets) with ease and see if there is some proxy or service working that could allow external access to people.

      • lox

        If the IP in question indeed belongs to that company, there’s most probably a network behind the adress, and any connected computer can be the source of this czech forum post. Even worse, there might be a PC that is remotely accessible, and the true source computer of the forum post cannot be revealed by tracing the IP adress.

        In a few words:
        A) The person who posted the “road map” can be located anywhere in the world.
        B) The fact that this highly confidential information from a “UK company” took it’s way through a “US company” related to a “japanese company” right into a “czech forum” does clearly not make it look trustworthy.

      • Anonymous

        - NikonRumor’s Admin is a good person to trust on, and sending confidential information via anonymous email using anonymous service to him could be a better way than using a forum that register the IP and partially shows it to everyone.

        - And I want to go back about what I said in previous post. (I just was very interested to know if it is real)
        Why? because if the info is true, I wouldn’t like someone to be caught for taking the risk.

        If it is a joke, then….. sooner or later we’ll know.

        But the anonymity of people who take the risk to share confidential things is over anything else.

        If it is true maybe it was well done to keep its identity confidential and anonymous, more than we can think, despite it doesn’t look much like that.
        That is something we can’t really know so far.

        Anyway, I feel that so large report leaked is a very weird thing, never happened before, and not very plausible, but who knows….

        • Pablov

          this “anonymous” post is mine, I forgot to write my user information

  • NikoDoby

    If this info is true. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs and a lot of finger pointing and legal action is about to begin. This is a major breach if true. If it’s all BS then lets just laugh it off and move on to the next rumor! (Although I don’t think Nikon’s laughing)

    Hey maybe this is all some jealous canon user’s evil joke :^)

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Or if it’s not true Nikon are probably having a right laugh.

    • STRB

      My feelings precisely

    • STJ

      I’m not sure Nikon would laugh even if fake, but it’s a sure thing that if its true then they would definitely not laugh… Anyways, we’ll soon know if this is dreamt up or indeed a roadmap…

      • PHB

        It might even be intentional.

        If the roadmap is accurate, Nikon is about to demolish Canon completely in the DSLR space. Every lens and every camera will be beaten.

        Canon might respond to the new cameras, but the lenses take years to design. Some of the lenses are catchup to Canon, but others are not. That 120-480 for example.

        Early release might dampen sales of the D300s. But not by much. Everyone knows that there will be a new camera out in a year or two. If the D300s does have full HD video and not the peculiar Nikon JPG based format they have now, the D400 is a quality improvement, not a functional improvement. The D400 will be out of price range for most buyers and the D4/D4x/D700x way out of range.

        If confirmed the news will increase sales of the low end Nikon models sold to people who will buy a Nikon because they make the world’s best camera, not because that is the camera they are buying.

        If it is BS we will know early August.

        Canon has a major stake in the DSLR market, but its not their only market. Each Canon model is purely a matter of maximizing profits, not company survival. They can easily divert resources to photocopiers or printers if there is more money to be made there. Canon invested heavily in trying to dethrone Nikon when they thought that they had a chance of becoming #1 in the DSLR space. If they don’t think they can do that the resources will be shifted elsewhere. They do have the best camcorder on the market at the moment.

        Canon is still dominating in the high volume point and shoot cameras, take a look at Amazon’s bestsellers.

  • arz

    What is the big deal? It’s not like Nikon’s sales are going to be ruined by the evil Canon who comes up with “better” product just days before the launch of new Nikon product. Oh wait, leak or not, it happened already.

    Chill out.

    On top of that, most likely Nikon marketing are going to scratching their heads and wondering “huh?!” anyways.

    • eyrieowl

      This is not necessarily what would happen, but there is a real risk: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_Effect

      • eyrieowl

        Also, note that if the leak is false, it’s in Nikon’s interest to speak up about it unless it quickly becomes patently obvious that it is false. Otherwise, people might refrain from buying even thought the product they think they are waiting for is never going to materialize.

      • PHB

        The Osbourne effect was when the company announced a machine that was not merely a little better but would completely demolish the current model and cost less. The roadmap does not.

        Nikon might sell fewer lenses as a result of this leak, but the cameras are all high end apart from the D3000 due out soon.

        Most people buy DSLRs because they are shooting specific events. A friend is going on a safari next month. He wants a DSLR now. What Nikon has in a year is irrelevant. Same for babies, weddings etc.

        A much bigger problem is that Canon now knows how Nikon is going to achieve its next step up and they have 12 months extra to start duplicating it.

        • eyrieowl

          I don’t see the Canon problem as a problem at all. If Canon is capable of making changes to its own roadmap that fast (that would be REALLY fast), so is Nikon. If the roadmap was accurate, they both know it’s out there, both will probably make adjustments, which means the roadmap would become less accurate the further out you go. There’s no way Canon can simply put new lenses in the pipeline today for delivery in a year, though…and the sensor tech for their next year’s cameras is almost certainly not in the design phase at this point in time.

          The Osborne effect though…I don’t think it would put Nikon out of business, but…if I were considering buying a current lens (say, the 17-55), I would be very inclined to wait, maybe try to get by with other lenses. It could make it harder for them to offload inventory for equipment which will have a replacement coming. For some lenses, say the 70-200, it seems they’ve already run down production so they’re not going to have lots of excess to be getting rid of, but at least some products are still available, and I could see their sales drop, not to zero, but lower, in anticipation of getting the next model.

      • bigmouth

        Nah, that phenomenon will only happen when 2 conditions are met:

        1- you are sure that the new product will hit the market soon (or older product is going to fall in price after the release of new product) – no one is sure right now – it’s still a rumor until Nikon makes a statement – which they will most likely not be doing.

        2- The perceived benefit of waiting must be substantial – things like you pay $400 now buying a D40, in 2 months when D3000 is announced, D40 will be $150 and D3000 $450 – something like that. It almost never gonna happen. In fact, you will likely to see sales of certain late year model to pick up a little bit towards the end of its model year because the price deduction made them more affordable.

        The only effect I can see from this long piece of garbage is that it is a mixture of something credible (but also predictable) and something that’s completely base less. In the end, you will see some of it to be true and most others false. If Nikon in fact (and likely) released less product this year, fans will be somewhat disappointed.

  • technewb

    what are the “consequences”?

    • eyrieowl
      • technewb

        Thanks, that’s a helpful link! Although I don’t know why this website is trying to kill the messenger.

        • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

          no, I am not trying to kill the messenger – I am just trying to find out if there is any truth to this rumor. I do protect all of my sources, the above displayed info is a public knowledge and I did not disclose anything more.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      If true, Canon will know what their major competitor is up to and make adjustments to their own roadmap…

      • funny

        but likewise, nikon could use this to mislead canon into thinking they know something which they don’t or is no longer true.

        I think people are overblowing the implications of this if proven true. Canon cannot adjust shorterm so only the long term goals are an issue. and nikon can always adjust those.

        • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

          true, maybe Nikon is playing us all just to misinform the competition – I always said it, it is not easy to run a rumor site :)

  • seba316

    Nice job! I love how people think the web is anonymous when it clearly isn’t…

  • http://www.PiNa.cz PiNa.cz

    Sorry guys to spoil your fun, but it ened up to be FAKE … this is just a joke from one of the employees who left the company for his colleagues. There are no doubts that super secret documents would never appeared in the service company.

    This is the original reply he (the guy who posted it at grafika.cz forums) got from his source when he asked if he is allowed to post original document he got on grafika.cz.

    Have fun …

    Martin

    Přišla mně odpověď mailem:
    - jsem ukecaný idiot, když to zveřejňuji
    - je to údajně žertík odejitého zaměstnance s úkoly pro své milované kolegy a nadřízené s podvrženým odesilatelem z centra
    - nevymyšlené supertajné dokumenty by se údajně servisní firmě do rukou nedostaly
    Takže je to údajně vymyšlené, ale muselo to dát děsnou práci, asi měl dotyčný své kolegy nesmírně rád a byl velice tvůrčí. A ze mě si tedy taky udělal srandu a já to 3 hodiny překládal.

    • Quido

      translation from czech:

      I received an email reply from my source [after asking if it would be a major screwup to make the info public]:
      [he said:]
      - that I’m a talkative idiot if I’m making it public
      - that it’s supposedly a joke make by a guy who was laid off – it includes ‘tasks’ for his beloved colleagues a managers, and has a fake creator name from Nikon HQ
      - super-secret documents that wouldn’t be made up would presumably never land in the hands of a service company.

      So it’s said it’s all made up, but it had to be a real chore to produce, maybe the creater really liked his colleagues and was very creative. And he got me and made me a fool and I was translating this for 3 hours.

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Damn.
      All those lenses did make it unrealistic though.

      Don’t quite follow wht the poster got this said document though. Still a little weird.

  • YMO

    If this is true, I’m especially interested in that AF-S 120-450 VRII, and/or the AF-S 300 F4 VRII. I Own a 80-400 now, but an AF-S version with the same (or better) IQ would be great!

    A new version of the 70-200 and 17-55 would also be great. Maybe I can score an old version for a fair price than!

  • Robert

    This smells too much of fish

    This year’s glass is plausible about the two G-series and the 70-200 improved, but next year… Too many weird lenses, illogical “improvements” and too many lenses which sound like a technology geek’s wishlist as it lacks a lot of sense optically speaking. Just because some fanboy thinks VR in every imaginable lens will make better results doesn’t mean that in terms of optical engineering floating elements improve or even fit every imaginable optical formula!

    The text also is filled with marketing terms, which would make no point being included in roadmaps written by production engineering. It doesn’t include any use of product code names so common for the consumer electronics industry.

    In terms of production lines, all these lenses would also mean interesting consequences as rolling them out they’d have to kill or severely limit production of similar range, proven to be real killer lenses, including ao the pro zooms launched about a year ago.

    I have severe difficulty in believing the whole fairytale about an inside leak. If Nikon indeed would put valuable eggs in such a fragile basket and share it with a 3rd party (come on!) then the person high enough to access that info certainly would not be dumb enough to leave so many traces when posting it, much less post it to a graphic designer’s forum in Czechoslovakia.

  • alex

    looks fake to me too.
    the d4000 and d300s part was rumored long time before this, and the d300s lcd was displayed on nikon’s website for a short while too. so that part is probably true.

    but the rest of the info, so many lenses… that’s crap.

  • STJ

    Some things sounds very plausible though, others less…

    Its true because:
    -It will make my dreams come true :-)
    -Nikon must make “enhanced contrast mode” in lenses to make autofocus with video possible. This is too good info to dream up.
    -theres so much detail like “Self timer addition: Self timer + MUP”
    -someone found the meeting notes in the garbage and posted it, then found out how “big” this is
    -The person claims 37pages total (he only posts what is related to DSLR)
    -D300s with better video than d90 and 7fps…is plausible compared with previous posts
    -The selection of lenses makes somewhat sense (someone will always be dissapointed)
    -New technology – double exposure for the D4 interesting and not anticipated. What the heck is “double exposure”? It apparently comes with a double histogram to boot..
    -details for D4 viewfinder like “magnifying glass for the DX cropping”

    Its fake because:
    -No new flashes (he might have left this out from the 37pages)
    -5fps for FX for the d700x (I wont complain if its true)
    -Too many lenses (probably the most problematic point)
    -Too wierd lenses (sometimes Nikon makes wierd lenses)
    -Too many high-end bodies in such a short time (how would they do that?)
    -82mm filters (this could actually be true)
    -No <35mm FX fixed lens like a 20mm / 24mm (a bit strange)
    -61 point AF (do we need so many? -well it could be…)
    AF-s-DX 60-90 f2.0 (sounds like perfect portrait lens for DX, but realistic?)

    • TheManWhoKnowsTrue

      Nobody saw 37-pages document, It is the FICTION.

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        ok, we got the point – no reason to spam this blog with the same comment over and over, please

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        and no reason to post using different names – this just raises the suspicion of the leaked roadmap, if it is a joke, why do you care so much?

        • John Enver

          Can Nikon criminalize the fiction in the discussion? I am not in any relation to Nikon, but I am ver affraid Nikon can criminalize the fiction, in which creation I participated, but other man posted it to the world. For instance DX 60-95mm f/2 is my dreamed portrait lens – composition zoom – this lens thinked me.

          • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

            it’s called freedom of speech – I am not a lawyer, but you cannot get in trouble for something like that, unless is real

  • cyb3r

    Everyone can use a proxy to mask his IP address. It may not be 100% secure all the times, but I guess it is enough when posting rumors about companies. https://www.torproject.org/ for example.

  • fan

    Interestingly, there is Pentax headquarters in Englewood, CO.

  • Nikkorian

    oh, comeon. why should nikon care about this list. nobody knows the validity and furthermore, there’s no surprise in the list. might be just average guess work by extrapolation. there’s nothing for canon to hook onto. they have their own roadmap ready until 2010 which is not going to be revised because of some list in the internet.

  • nonbeliever

    This is very unprobable: remember the book about the D400 – it is still due for August 2009. As there was already posted above, August will tell.

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      The publishers did a public appology – stating it was a speculative product and shouldn’t have been listed on Amazon etc.
      But yes – would be interesting if the D400 came out then.

      • nonbeliever

        have a look on http://www.buecher.de
        type in nikon d 400
        and you will find it!

        • Zoetmb

          Bibliographic postings about forthcoming books mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!

          I used to be in that business. Publishers “think” they might publish something and send a listing to Books In Print and its equivalents around the world as a “Forthcoming Book”. If they don’t publish it, they declare it cancelled later. It means nothing.

  • Halogenic

    I really think, at least concerning the body cámeras, that it is a fake, do you all think it is worth paying for the D400 when the D300 is almost the same? just one more megapixel, same iso, I think do not worth the change.

  • rwpl

    I think someone is really bored with his/her life and should get a girlfriend instead of spening hours on imagining things :)

    • funny

      actually this guy probably has plenty of women. and he knows that when a woman is nagging you there is nothing better to do that imagining a better world.

      off course anybody who recommends a girlfriend is really the one who doesn’t know how much of a PITA women are.

      • rwpl

        you made me laugh :] …. you should get laid – get that flustration out of you

  • shivas

    this sucks. . . was hoping for a 24mm 1.4. . . .oh well, the only lens that annoys me is the 17-60mm VR2, because if that covers both DX and FX, I’ll have to unload my 17-55 f/2.8. . . .other than that, I’ll happily welcome the rest of those slow, entry level, plastic-lenses (sigh. . . )

  • Jimmy

    I have come to hate this site. I was all ready to buy a D90 but then had to put that off until the D300s/D400 came out to see if the upgrades were worth the extra cash. So I figured by August/Sept. I would have a new body.

    But wait, now the D400 is slated to come out within months of the D300s. Only a fool would buy the D300s without first waiting to see what the next flagship of the DX line (the D400) would look like. So, for now, I am stil0 shooting away with my D50 waiting for Godot.

    • Narna

      Just buy one Jimmy.

      The D300 is amazing, the D90 is a different beast, sure you get video but lose the 51pt autofocus, the tough body and faster burst speed.

      Maybe see what D300s is like in august if you really want video, otherwise take the plunge, either D90 or D300. Go on, you know you want one…

      Honestly mate you already said you wanted a D90. If the size weight cost and features of the D300 dont meet your needs the D400.D300s will probably be heavier more feature laden and more expensive. Dont wait, you’ll just kick yourself.

  • Kevinw

    WIsh they had added Geotagging to the D90 or ??

  • István

    I don’t think it is true. Why to step to 61 AF points from 51??
    double exp??? dNEF ???? if it is not a ready High DR JPEG it needs procesing. If we do procesing we can do the same thing from bracketing….

    BUT ANYWAY.. LET’S HELP NIKON SEE WHAT WOULD WE APPRECIATE FROM THE LIST.

  • We’reNotThatDumb…

    HOW TO NOT SQUASH A RUMOR

    Everyone’s heard by now that someone posted a “leaked Nikon Roadmap for 2009-2010″. It’s not clear if it’s really true, but one of the strongest reasons to believe in its truth is the over-the-top efforts of one individual (cough cough Nikon spin control?) to discredit the leaked info. Check this out:
    http://www.dpreview.com/members/?User=heifihiehlie
    The same guy also posted here:
    http://nikonrumors.com/…e-digging-on-the-leaked-nikon-roadmap.aspx#comments
    Someone is going to a lot of extremely focused trouble to try to squash the rumor…

  • bandwagon

    So, does this mean it has not begun??

    • ennan

      lol. It has, perhaps, will maybe is might be going to happen if it’s true which it might not be, perhaps, probably. Or something…

      • bandwagon

        nice.

  • nikkor_2

    As Veruca Salt might say:

    I want the ‘Pet portrait’ advanced scene mode — see the D3000 specs — and I want it now!

    • STJ

      ha ha ha! That’s a good one – approx85% of the “photogs” at a known photo page dp…… could have use of that function.. :-)

  • Frank

    Too many inconsistencies. For example a D300 that weighs 925 grams but a D300s coming in at 795 grams – a 14% reduction – doubt it…

  • Anon

    When I see how much fuss and chaos this roadmap actually causes, I can imagine it feels TOTALLY worth the trouble to make a thorough fake of this stuff! :D

  • Twoomy

    Admin – I would recommend removing reference to the person’s name in above posts. You don’t want somebody dragged through the mud if they had nothing to do with this. I’m a bit unclear why you’re posting this info about your informant. It’s almost like you’re ratting him out and would make other leakers think twice about telling you anything. Maybe I am misunderstanding the situation?

  • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

    Alex, the IP is not complete and I am not sure you can do any kind of valid concussions without the full IP.

  • Michael

    You might want to be careful putting up that man’s name and business. If it is not true then he would have a case for libel. He could sue you over this. I would be VERY careful doing stuff like that. Admin, you may want to remove the posts with his name and business information I would truly HATE to see you get in trouble over this.

  • Twoomy

    Oh I get it now. Sorry, you can delete my dumb post.

  • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

    the name is just a speculation from a reader, not from myself and there is a such a thing as freedom of speech

    I am just doing some investigation with facts that are public knowledge – I do not disclose any more information than what is already publicly available. If this was one of my sources, of course I would not even do that.

  • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

    on a second thought Twoomy I think you are right and I removed the reference to this person, sorry Alex – not worth the potential trouble.

  • Enver John

    Please delete Nikon roadmap!!!!!

    This was the local joke for very small community, it is not the true!!! Please do not expand this joke to the world!!!
    I am shocked of the expanding of the message.
    One small joke on grafika.cz, very often disclaim and whole world is full of this nonsense!! Please, stop it!!!!! It could damage any company!!!!

    Thank You very much, J.E.

  • STJ

    Just to make your statement clear John Ever – did you write that roadmap or do I not understand you well?

  • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

    Enver John, I do not like censorship on the Internet. Unless Nikon asks me to remove it, I am not touching it. Of course this could be a joke, but it could also be that the person realized the potential impact of this roadmap and now is trying to cover it up. Remember, I did not post this roadmap I just linked to it – so don’t even think of blaming me.

  • NikoDoby

    Maybe those North Korean Hackers messing things up on the “Internets” just got us good too! Hows that for a conspiracy theory :^o

  • ennan

    Quite right admin – you’re just doing your job. This is why we come to the site in the first place. Sure it might not be true, but then again it might be. It’s a rumour and before anyone forgets THAT’S THE POINT OF THIS WEBSITE.
    Whether it’s true or not if NR Admin didn’t pick up on this then he would have dropped the ball in my opinion. Besides even if it’s not true it’s fun to speculate on these imaginery products – our discussions might just inspire someone at Nikon R&D – you never know!

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