There are some rumors that the next DX lens may actually be a refresh of the current AF-S DX Nikkor 16-85mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR ($650). This matches previous reports that the new DX Nikkor will be a consumer lens and it will be a replacement of an already existing zoom lens.
My only problem with this rumor is that the 16-85mm lens is pretty new – it was announced in 2008 which is why I give this rumor a 40% probability. FYI: the 18-200mm lens was refreshed 4 years after its first introduction.
