Some observations on the current Nikon promotions in Japan

Some observations on the current Nikon promotions in Japan by a reader:

Just like to provide some information on some recent sales movements in Japan, which might be indicative of what to expect next. Back in March I mentioned that Nikon does not release a successor model when a cashback campaign is active, and expected the Z8 to come before the Z6III/Z7III models. Right now Nikon is running another campaign to move practically all their inventory. All current bodies and lenses (except for the newer releases, Z 24-120 and super teles) are part of the campaign now – you can have a look at the list here:

Map Camera (a Nikon authorized dealer) just announced a significant price cut on three different models:

  • Nikon Z6 with 24-70mm f/4 lens kit
  • Nikon Z5 body
  • Nikon Z50 body

Here is an excerpt from the newsletter – the Z6 and Z5 have been sold out already:

Similarly, the Nikon Rakuten official shop siu also pushing the Nikon Z6 lens kit as well:

Here are some speculations:

  1. Similar to what I mentioned in March, Nikon does not announce any successor models when a cashback campaign is active, so the earliest we will see the Z6III/Z7III/Z50II, etc. is only after the cashback ends. However, it is possible an entirely new model is announced during an active cashback campaign, so the recent rumors about the FX retro body (Zf?) are very possible. The announcement of the 40mm SE earlier this year also seems to suggest an FX retro body is in the works.
  2. With both the Z5 and Z6 getting pushed out of retailers, and the Z7 is not getting any extra movement, I highly suspect the Zf would have a 24MP sensor – either the FSI Z5 sensor or the BSI Z6 sensor is up for debate, though I personally have a hunch it would be the BSI sensor.
  3. Z50 being moved also shows that a Z50II is around the corner – I think it might just be a minor upgrade to USB-C and Expeed 7 while keeping the same sensor? Would be nice to be proven wrong though!
  4. As mentioned earlier on Nikon Rumors we most probably won’t see the Z6III/Z7III this year, and I think so too. I think that apart from Expeed 7, the Z6III and Z7III should be using different sensors from the current Z6II/Z7II, and Nikon likes to fine-tune the sensors properly before releasing so development would be longer than models using identical sensors (D800 -> D810 -> D850 is a good case study).

Update: the Nikon Df is also now discounted on the official Rakuten store (already sold out), and it’s a model that has not seen any sales or offered in cashback campaigns at all after its launch in Japan, so I believe you are right on target that a new Nikon Zf is indeed very close!

I don’t have any insider information, unfortunately, so these are purely my speculations based on observations from market discounts and movement.

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