(Yes, I know this is an old thread, but we're supposed to search for similar threads before we start new ones, right?)
Okay, so fresh off the NikonRumors home page, there's regenerated whisperings of a new Nikkor long-zoom for summer 2010. The old, Thai-forum sourced, "Super Fast 100-500," Nikon one-sheet (posted above) is most likely fake. If Nikon does introduce a 100-500 VR lens, my guess is that it'll be something like a f/5.6 to f/6.3 maximum aperture. And, since NR is also saying that there will NOT be a replacement for the current AF VR Nikkor 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6, I take that to mean, that there will not be a new long zoom in that price range (e.g., $1,500-$2,000), but, perhaps, much more (which runs a bit contrary to the Nikon VP statement earlier).
It happens that I just bought an AF VR Nikkor 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6 refurb a few weeks ago, and at a street price of $1,500 for a new one, I doubt anything in that focal-length range with added millemeters, or added features will come close to that price point. Surprisingly, the relatively inexpensive, 80-400mm VR I bought turned out to be one of the sharpest lenses I own, even at 400mm @ f/5.6. So, if you want to describe this lens as a "consumer" lens, it's still one of the best lenses I own, regardless. Sure, there's no AF-S, but it still focuses a LOT faster than my AF Nikkor 180mm f/2.8D (but, about the same as my non-G, AF 70-300mm f/4-5.6D ED). Once in-range, the 80-400mm focus is fairly "snappy." So, even if Nikon does introduce a longer VR zoom with AF-S, I'm guessing it will be out of my price range.
[I just noticed that this thread is in the "Nikon DSLR" sub-forum, and should probably be moved to the "lenses" forum, instead.]