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D3100 or wait for D5100?

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CasualHobbyist

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Hello, I have been wanting to purchase a D90 ever since it was introduced, but wasn't in a position to do so for awhile. I started looking at them again this summer and read on this website about the D90 replacement coming. So, I waited for the D7000 to be announced - primarily because I wanted video auto-focus. Now that it has, I'm thinking that the cost, complexity, and size of the D7000 is probably not justified by my casual use.

I currently have a D50 which I use for family pictures, landscapes, closeups of the flowers that I grow, pictures of my bird dog in action, vacation pictures, photos of people doing outdoor sports, and an occasional session of "let's walk around and see if we can find something pretty to take a picture of". I use a 18-200VR almost exclusively, because most all of my pictures are taken outside, and I just don't like changing lenses when there is a risk of getting dirt in the system.

I'm sure the D7000 would be a wonderful camera, but I don't know that I would use the advanced features on it enough to justify the cost. Although I like to experiment and fiddle around with the various settings, my wife just wants to pick up a camera that has all the settings on automatic and just pay attention to composition. Also, my wife is very small and likes smaller, lighter cameras. I like lighter as well when I'm hiking and walking.

So I'm trying to figure out if I should buy the D3100 or wait for the D5100 to be released, and here are my questions:

1. What will the likely advantages be for the D5100?
2. How much more will it cost than the D3100?
3. And how long would I have to wait?

I know that all this begs a lot of speculation, but I have to believe that Nikon has to upgrade the D5000 now that the D3100 is almost as good as if not better the D5000. Furthermore, there just seems to be a gaping hole between the D3100 and the D7000 that Nikon has to fill.

Thanks,
CH

Posted 2 years ago #
jonnyapple

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CasualHobbyist said:
1. What will the likely advantages be for the D5100?
2. How much more will it cost than the D3100?
3. And how long would I have to wait?

Welcome to the forum, CH. It sounds like you have put a lot of thought into what you're looking for.

1. some D5100 advantages:
-may- inherit the new AF sensor and sensor from the D7000. No sure thing, though.
probably will have a swivel screen
some disadvantages:
not available now
may never exist (piddly details!)
I'm sure people can tell you others.
2. I think the D3000 and D5000 were about $200-300 different, but it could end up being more if the D5100 is a big upgrade (AF system, sensor from D7000)
3. Who knows? But I'd guess next spring or summer. Nikon's got to compete with the 60D. (j/k)

I'd recommend the D3100 instead of waiting for a camera that might not ever be made. Or, pick up a used D90. It's a great camera.

Posted 2 years ago #
Jack the Ripper

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The D5100 may never come about. whats your budget?

you may want to consider a D90, it has a built in AF motor so you dont HAVE to buy AF-S lenses. It is a stellar camera in every regard to learn on, plus you will not outgrow it in a year. it has all the goodies, excellent low light performance, you can control the nikon flashes wirelessly, i would take a D90 over a d3100 anyday just for its compatability with older lenses. IF there is a D5100 it very well may not be able to do much of that stuff. They can be had for 700-800 if you look around.

Posted 2 years ago #
Newfie

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I doubt if there will be a D5100. There would be no Canon match.

D3100 - Rebel XS
D7000 - Rebel T2i
D300s - 7D
D700 - 5DMkii
D3(s)- 1DMkiv

D5100 - ?

Posted 2 years ago #
PB PM

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No Canon match? You're forgetting the T1i.

Posted 2 years ago #
Newfie

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The T1i is no longer being produced. It is to the T2i what the D3000 is to the D3100.

Posted 2 years ago #
adamz

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i doubt nikon will discontinue the d5000 line, the swivel screen it's a huge advantage over d3000 and there should be a camera that fits between the serious amateur (d7000) and beginner (d3100)

Posted 2 years ago #
N1DQU

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If Nikon does make the D5100 look for it to drop the swivel screen like the D3100 did. The swivel screen was a BAD idea. If it ever broke off ( which some have )the camera is useless. And the cost to replace it is $200+. There may never be a D5100.

Posted 2 years ago #
CasualHobbyist

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The D90 is not a viable option for me, because I want the video autofocus.

Posted 2 years ago #
RRRoger

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Newfie said:
I doubt if there will be a D5100. There would be no Canon match.

The 60D has an articulating screen

I think Nikon has had so much trouble with it that they will try to fade it quietly away.
There really is little room between the D3100 and D7000. Nothing new is expected soon, so D5000 sales may be the decider.

Posted 2 years ago #
Workodactyl

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The only thing that I'd want on my 3100 (if I owned one) that the D5000 has is exposure bracketing. Apart from that, depending on your budget. I'd just go for the D3100. If not, and it doesn't seem like you're in a hurry, since you're willing to wait for the D5100 (should it ever happen), wait, save up and go for the D7000.

edit: From the video's so far, the autofocus is not all impressive. Plus Nikon isn't really a video powerhouse to begin with. But manual focus would probably be your best option. I'd suggest the D90, but if video autofocus is a main attribute you're looking for. D3100/D7000

Posted 2 years ago #
DaveyJ

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I have used the D3100. The video is better than on my D90. I am ordering a D7000. The swivel screen on the D5000 is why I didn't buy one of those for a backup camera. Many I talk to don't like that feature. Also the LCD on the D5000 is not as good as on the D3100. The D5100 IF it is introduced will sure fix all this. But it could be a long wait. I'd buy a camera which has at least been announced and go out and take photos.

Posted 2 years ago #
Krevlin

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Why wait?

I mean why are you looking at this like you can't buy it now and resale it later?

I was semi in your positon. I had a D60 and wanted to move up, I had considered an old D80 but really wanted the D90, I hesitated because I kept hearing the D90 replacement was coming.

I am so glad I said, screw it, and bought my D90. Love this camera and since buying it I put a little into savings each month and now I can get the D7000 and sell off my D90 and keep on shooting.

Though I do think the D7000 will be all the body I need for now as I don't shoot pro so there is no need for anything more.

My investments will be in lenses.

Posted 2 years ago #
HotDuckZ

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D5100 may be a year or two.

Nikon D3100 = Canon 550D
Nikon D5100 = Canon 60D
Nikon D7000 = Canon 7D

Posted 2 years ago #
PB PM

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Errr, D7000 vs 7D, no, too many missing features. What is missing? For semi pro users, who the 7D/D300s are aimed at, things like PC sync ports and some of the other features matter.

D3100 = Canon XS/Xsi/T1i. Yes they are not in production, but they are still selling.
D5100 = T2i
D7000 = 60D (Canon got PAWNED)
D9000/D400? = 7D

Posted 2 years ago #
foofiebeast

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I think the d5100 is quite a ways out if there ever will be one. Pricing wise it just doesn't make sense, d3100 is roughly $700, with the d7000 being $1200, the d5100 would theoretically come in at around $900-1000, too close to the d7000, especially as by the time a d5100 is released the d7000 will probably have had at least a $100 price drop (because that's how far out the d5100 is), bringing their prices even closer together.

Posted 2 years ago #
PB PM

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D3100 prices will likely fall down to D3000 levels in a few months once the stock of the latter is gone, leaving lots of room for the D5100.

Posted 2 years ago #
DaveyJ

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I think the D5100 is needed by Nikon. The D7000 is going to really sell well! The D3100 is a superb entry level camera. But I agree with PB PM that there is a lot of room for the D5100, question is what Nikon actually did about making one. Seems like a LOT of room in their line up for one. Also the Canon T2i would be far better answered by a D5100.

Posted 2 years ago #
aslightdelay

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It's not just the gap, or lack thereof, in the pricing. It's the gap in the specs. Just as there was a significant gap in specs going from 3000 - 5000 - 90, right now there's some sizeable holes left in the territory between 3100 and 7000. For some amateur shooters, the 7000 might be a bit too much; for others, the 3100 won't quite be enough. The 5100 could be the "Goldilocks" option that bridges that gap. I also tend to agree with PB PM that the 3100's price will go down at some point in the not-too-distant future, leaving room in terms of price points for a 5100 to be slotted in.

Posted 2 years ago #
CasualHobbyist

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Since I started this thread, I obviously agree with the last 3 posters who said that they believe that there will be a D5100. Assuming that will be true, the next question would be: what features/specs will it have that the 3100 doesn't?

I've looked at the comparison between the D3100, D3000, and D5000 on the dpreview.com to see what features the D5000 has that the D3100 does not. I don't see many advantages for the D5000 except:
1.) The D5000 will shoot 4 fps vs. 3 fps for the D3100,
2.) The D5000 does bracketing and the D3100 does not, and
3.) The D3100 only has Active D Lighting on/off and the D5000 has six different options.

What other advantages might a D5100 have over the D3100? I could see it having more AF points - similar to the D7000. Would it have better video autofocusing? What else?

Posted 2 years ago #
Drab

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Intro - remember the previous DX lineup: 3000 -> 5000 -> 90 -> 300

Ok, let's talk about the previous difference between the lines, what we know about how that has changed, and try to extrapolate, for comparing the old 5000 to the new 3100 could be misleading.

1) The D5000 shot faster than the D3000, yet slower than the D90. Pick a number somewhere between the D3100 and D7000 and you're likely close to what the D5100 will do.

2) Yes. The D5100 will likely bracket.

3) The 3000 had a older generation sensor and current generation (but very slow) processing engine. The D5000 had the latest DX sensor and significantly faster processing engine.
Well, unlike the D3000 and the D60 (what it replaced) before, the D3100 is not using the previous generation sensor, so we know the D5100 can't be a generation ahead. That said, the D7000 is using a different sensor than the D3100, and if history is any guide in this matter the D5100 has a good chance of sharing the D7000's sensor.

4) The D5000 had an identical meter and AF setup to the D90, as did the 3000. They 11 points and 3D AF tracking (which relies on the meter as well), but did it (tracking) poorly compared to the 300.
The D7000 appears to have an AF / meter combo which very well might exceed that of the D300. The D3100's AF system is the same as the D3000's, I would not be shocked at all to see the D7000's system in the D5100.
Then again, I also wouldn't be shocked to see the D7000's sensor and the D3100's AF / meter. Part of me believes this is more likely.

Video autofocus is not using the in-the-prism-box phase-detect AF points like still photos. I have not seen exactly how Nikon is doing it, but if it is contrast-detect (like point and shoot cameras) it is CPU-bound and one should expect JPG processing speeds to be a decent predictor of AF speed. Is the D7000 faster at movie AF than the D3100?

No reason to expect the 5100 to have an in-body AF motor, the D5000 didn't.

Every reason to expect the D5100 to have at least one distinguishing trick none of the other bodies have. Something half-way between the D3100 and D7000 isn't nearly as enticing from a marketing point of view as something unique. The D5000 had a flip-out screen, and seeing how Nikon really raised the D90 bar with the D7000 I would not be surprised to see that AND another trick on the D5100.

Posted 2 years ago #
CasualHobbyist

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Thanks for that analysis!

Does anyone know if there is a difference in the movie auto focusing of the D3100 and D7000? I wasn't very impressed with the samples on the weekly news post of the D3100 auto focusing.

Posted 2 years ago #
Drab

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No direct knowledge, but it is very likely very similar to the D3100's AF, in style if not in amount.

Contrast-detect AF must overshoot focus near and far in order to determine center (proper) focus.

With phase-detect (which can't be done on a traditional sensor (you would need to put detectors in the middle of the sensor, creating imaging blind spots), as you need to split the light before it gets to the detector) you can measure how far out of focus the image is, and equally importantly, which direction.

With contrast-detect you must literally hunt back and forth until you get the highest contrast, and this can only be known by seeing lower contrast on either side. This is why the D7000 will exhibit the same behavioral qualities, even if the quantity is a bit less. (and making the quantity a bit less would be very hard, as in a properly-implemented system the lens focus motor's speed is the limiting factor.)

Phase-detection focusing on sensor is coming soon, there is little doubt of that, but if the D7000 had it we should have expected MASSIVE PR from Nikon.

EDIT: I know a bit of what I said above seems like backtracking from my earlier post, but the more I thought about it and the more I did the math the more I don't believe jpg-processing speeds would be a reliable indicator of movie AF speed. In this post I said "properly implemented" and that's kind of a cop-out. By "properly-implemented" I mean that the AF detection routines are not CPU-limited - something I gotta believe Nikon spent the additional ten cents on die-space to ensure.

EDIT 2: I also know I said I was unsure if Nikon was doing contrast-detect for movie-AF in the earlier post. Again, the more I think about it and the more I look at the posted videos I'm growing increasingly confident they are. The alternatives are either ground-breaking (split-phase on sensor) or extremely cheesy (active range-finding, even if you tracked motion via doppler shift, would give false results often).

Posted 2 years ago #
jonnyapple

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I'm also 99.9% sure the video AF is based on contrast detection, and you're right that it's most likely limited by AF speed not CPU power or the algorithm used. The D7000 does AF with D lenses, so it's possible that it has a slight edge over the D3100 focus speed with some non-AF-S lenses compared to D3100 with AF-S lenses.

And as someone who teaches a a conceptual physics lab course where ultrasonic rangefinders are used pretty often, I also agree that way would probably give distances all over the place because they're so easily confused/aimed wrong.

I'm probably just dreaming, but what I think would be awesome is an external device that plugs into the GPS input of the camera and would let you control focus by outputting one of a set of focal distances that have been user-preset or that could be input in real time—a digital focus puller, if you like. The camera would take the info from the focus puller device and adjust focus using the distance info it gets from the lens. Mate it to an IR laser rangefinder that could update the focus puller's distance output to the camera by simply pointing it at any object and pressing a button and it would be fantastic.

Here's another good idea I've thought about, which would even work with the current technology but would be better if they ever get phase-detected AF during video worked out (like those new fixed-mirror Sony DSLRs can do). Instead of relying on face-detection or scene recognition to choose where to focus, why not put a touch-screen on the camera and let the operator drag their finger along the screen over the subject they want to track?

At least I think these are good ideas. They always sound better before critical review, though. ;-)

Posted 2 years ago #
Drab

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I like both the ideas, and both would be available today (pending touch-screen delivered by Nikon you'd need to do the second trick with an external display) IF Nikon would do as Thom has discussed and open the firmware.* Neither are that difficult to implement on a technical level.

*If (actually it is likely) Nikon is under multiple NDAs for particular algorithms and hardware drivers they use, they could always follow the existing model (Maemo, nVidia's Linux drives, etc) of opening the actual kernel and userspace while keeping "sensitive" modules and drivers as binary blobs. Grrr, I don't want to get started on how frustrated I am with the (common) unwillingness to do so.

EDIT: I won't go any deeper off-topic with that gripe.

Posted 2 years ago #