Everyone needs to calm down. I'm going to close this thread since it is echoing the same discussion in this thread:

http://nikonrumors.com/forum/topic.php?id=3516

Once we have a better idea of when there might be a D400 I'll reopen it.

1. Presumably, you have a camera. Shoot and enjoy.
2. Nikon considers the full frame cameras to be 'professional' and DX cameras not.
3. The events in Japan are a game changer. Don't expect to be able to predict what is going to happen. Canon and Nikon executives are probably trying to figure it out for themselves.

If you assume:
- they have all their employees,
- their factories are undamaged,
- transportation is not an issue,
- and their thousands of suppliers are operational,

they still are in trouble because the factories are only getting 4 hours of electricity a day. And, BTW, all the assumptions above are known to be false. Some of their suppliers no longer exist. They are probably working on getting a completely functioning company before they worry about deploying new products.

The release dates run fairly true and I shared them for others. Many plan budgets to work with new equipment releases. That's why I track it. It makes no sense in buying a top of the line camera for $2-5K when a new release is coming 4 months later for the same price. If you have 3-4 yr cycles for body updates, you do not want technology that is 5-7 years old. That is bad business.

Godless said:
Relax, guys. You seem to have the patience of three-year old kids.

There is no point in trying to guess when the apple is going to fall from the tree.
No amount of guessing and stressing and whining about it is going to speed the process.
I am sure that the releases will come and Nikon will make the announcements when it´s time.

I didn't see any heated discussions but a lot of sharing of good info. There is no reason to scorn people because you have nothing contribute. I have not met anyone who is here to read commentary on posts. If you have nothing to add, move on.

Godless said:
Relax, guys. You seem to have the patience of three-year old kids.

There is no point in trying to guess when the apple is going to fall from the tree.
No amount of guessing and stressing and whining about it is going to speed the process.
I am sure that the releases will come and Nikon will make the announcements when it´s time.

+1

We have tried to predict the release of the D700+ replacement by shuffling numbers and dates inside-out since what, more than a year and a half now?

Despite all of our scientific calculations, only Nikon knows when they planned a release, and with everything that has happened, adding 6 months on top of that seems optimistic. Hopefully, we will see a replacement within a year or two, but as for me, I have stopped holding my breath for equipment quite a while ago.

Relax, guys. You seem to have the patience of three-year old kids.

There is no point in trying to guess when the apple is going to fall from the tree.
No amount of guessing and stressing and whining about it is going to speed the process.
I am sure that the releases will come and Nikon will make the announcements when it´s time.

Ade Barkah said:
I'm not sure how predictable the month where the Dxxx releases have been made is, since we've only had four DX models in total (therefore, not statistically significant) plus an FX body:

I would disagree on your "not statistically significant" and say you are looking at the number of bodies rather than the days between releases. Give or take 60 days or so (for things like earthquakes) Nikon has kept a very consistent timeline from their 2nd bodies on up. This is the same for every body which shows Nikon does not do things randomly. I also have different release dates - I believe yours are the announcements, not actually releases.

D2h July 2003 7/22/2003 Pro
D2X Sept 2004 9/16/2004 Pro
D2Xs June 2006 6/1/2006 Pro
D3 August 2007 8/23/2007 Pro
D3X Dec 2008 12/1/2008 Pro
D3S October 2009 10/14/2009 Pro
D700 July 2008 7/1/2008 Simi-Pro
D100 Feb 2002 2/21/2002 Advanced Amateur
D200 Nov 2005 11/1/2005 Advanced Amateur
D300 August 2007 8/23/2007 Advanced Amateur
D300S July 2009 7/30/2009 Advanced Amateur
D70 January 2004 1/28/2004 Advanced Consumer
D70s April 2005 4/20/2005 Advanced Consumer
D80 August 2006 8/9/2006 Advanced Consumer
D90 August 2008 8/27/2008 Advanced Consumer
D7000 Sept 2010 9/15/2010 Advanced Consumer
D50 April 2005 4/20/2005 Consumer A
D40 Nov 2006 11/16/2006 Consumer B
D40x March 2007 3/6/2007 Consumer A
D60 January 2008 1/29/2008 Consumer A
D5000 April 2009 4/14/2009 Consumer A
D3000 April 2009 4/14/2009 Consumer B
D3100 October 2010 10/1/2010 Consumer B
D5100 April 2011 4/15/2011 Consumer A
*Don't anybody get their panties in a wad with my "body classification" it is just my grouping.

shivaswrath said:
Well I would elevate the D700 the a flag ship model-assuming it'll be updated on the 4 year cycle....

Since it follows the pro line, I'm guessing a 3-4 year upgrade path. Canon has bumped into it's self with the 5D line vs it's pro line basically making it's pro cameras a second choice. Imagine what would happen to D3s sales if a D700s came out last year with the better performance costing $2500 less.

Ade Barkah said:
I'm not sure how predictable the month where the Dxxx releases have been made is, since we've only had four DX models in total (therefore, not statistically significant) plus an FX body:

D100 - February 2002
D200 - November 2005
D300 - August 2007
D700 - July 2008
D300s - July 2009

So, one in the winter, one in the fall, and three in the summer if we count the D700. I don't see a fall release being any more likely than any other season.

For completeness, here are the introduction dates for the flagship models:

D1 - June 1999
D1H/X - February 2001
D2H - July 2003
D2X - September 2004
D2Hs - February 2005
D2Xs - June 2006
D3 - August 2007
D3x - December 2008
D3s - October 2009

No spring releases so far, but again I don't think it's statistically significant. And as with the Dxxx models, the data does not support a fall release being any more likely than other times of the year.

Well I would elevate the D700 the a flag ship model-assuming it'll be updated on the 4 year cycle....

I'm not sure how predictable the month where the Dxxx releases have been made is, since we've only had four DX models in total (therefore, not statistically significant) plus an FX body:

D100 - February 2002
D200 - November 2005
D300 - August 2007
D700 - July 2008
D300s - July 2009

So, one in the winter, one in the fall, and three in the summer if we count the D700. I don't see a fall release being any more likely than any other season.

For completeness, here are the introduction dates for the flagship models:

D1 - June 1999
D1H/X - February 2001
D2H - July 2003
D2X - September 2004
D2Hs - February 2005
D2Xs - June 2006
D3 - August 2007
D3x - December 2008
D3s - October 2009

No spring releases so far, but again I don't think it's statistically significant. And as with the Dxxx models, the data does not support a fall release being any more likely than other times of the year.

Announcements usually have camera shipments 60 days later to the masses. The announcement will probably be more coolpix and the new 50mm 1.8 afs.

Since 2005 Nikon has always released this body model in the fall. Nikon release dates have been fairly predictable to DSLRs. Due to part supplies I would bet we will see something in September for a D400 announcement.

Ade Barkah said:
Well I spoke to a Canadian source today who mentioned that they're "expecting a shipment from Nikon" next week. They wont know the contents of the shipment until they open it.

There is a Nikon press conference next week, but no idea what it will be... was on main blog a few days ago...

Well I spoke to a Canadian source today who mentioned that they're "expecting a shipment from Nikon" next week. They wont know the contents of the shipment until they open it.

Of course, the shipment could simply be a replenishment of existing stock, but given that they don't know what's coming might indicate a new product.

Having said that, I'd be surprised if a new Nikon professional camera would be shipped before official announcement has been made for immediate availability. But, an EVIL or even a D400... possible, possible...

Giovanni-bg said:
Do anyone considered that D300 is the only pro model produced outside of japan?

This it means that if nikon want to release something in the pro range soon the eartquake make the D400 the perfect candidate.

Moreover considering that now D300s is under pressure by D7000 that is outperforming it in many aspects.

So if I was Nikon manager in order to imporve sales, and keep interest on the brand highm, I will put all my R&D dept. efforts on the release of D400 soon.
This is the most logical choice standing the actual situation.

I am of the exact same belief. It is obvious the D700, and D3s replacements will be delayed for some time, however a D400 would give Nikon both higher than consumer margin, and a boost in unit volume.

Giovanni-bg said:
Do anyone considered that D300 is the only pro model produced outside of japan?

This it means that if nikon want to release something in the pro range soon the eartquake make the D400 the perfect candidate.

Moreover considering that now D300s is under pressure by D7000 that is outperforming it in many aspects.

So if I was Nikon manager in order to imporve sales, and keep interest on the brand highm, I will put all my R&D dept. efforts on the release of D400 soon.
This is the most logical choice standing the actual situation.

D300/D300s made in my country, Thailand.

If you have D300s & D7000 like me you will feel the D300s is a lot of better control, a lot better focus in a low light. (But AF-s is slower than D7000) That cameras really not the same market.

However I think D400 will be the ground breaking camera in 4 generation.

Then they can't put it early.

For the likely price of the D800 you can get a D700 and a D7000. Then in 18 months when people are still waiting to be able to get a D800 you will have been shooting full frame for a year and a half, plus have all the video you could ever hope for.

The flexibility of having the two bodies is great. I'm always shooting with the D700 while the D7000 is set up to take video.

LessThanThreeLeo said:
I've got a D40 at the moment. I want the D800 because I want a full frame camera that also shoots video. So the D700 isn't an option. All my lenses are FX primes.

fantastic, hopefully Givoanni bg is spot on with his predictions, which will give you the 400.

The only spanner in the works is that maybe, RD was done in Japan.

casperwb said:
why?

it would be interesting to know why you are waiting, and what equipment you are upgrading from.

I've got a D40 at the moment. I want the D800 because I want a full frame camera that also shoots video. So the D700 isn't an option. All my lenses are FX primes.

Do anyone considered that D300 is the only pro model produced outside of japan?

This it means that if nikon want to release something in the pro range soon the eartquake make the D400 the perfect candidate.

Moreover considering that now D300s is under pressure by D7000 that is outperforming it in many aspects.

So if I was Nikon manager in order to imporve sales, and keep interest on the brand highm, I will put all my R&D dept. efforts on the release of D400 soon.
This is the most logical choice standing the actual situation.

LessThanThreeLeo said:
Seriously, the D800 is gona be six months late? I've been waiting since September for this camera. =(

why?

it would be interesting to know why you are waiting, and what equipment you are upgrading from.

Seriously, the D800 is gona be six months late? I've been waiting since September for this camera. =(

It seems that the D7100 will come earlier than the Dxx.
- From the D3000 -> D3100
- From the D5000 -> D5100
- Will the D7000 be replaced by the D7100?

Tao, you may be right, Nikon has been consistent with its products in relation to the release times, that is, the life cycle is constant for all their products.. before a replacement will come... but now there is a new factor: the damage on their plant.

If Nikon can get their plant back up (Pro (& D300s) body plant was right where the quake occurred) maybe an announcement the end of the year but delays on the production will make it a slow release.

The D300 was released with the D3. The D700 was released 1 year after the D3. I'm willing to bet on a D4 & D400 combined release with a D800 release following a few months later.

Hi, will not have D400 in this year because of D7000 and new FX cameras.

Yes the earthquake probably will delay any releases that would have happened for bodies probably by 6 months or so. Again as I've said many times on here never wait for a body to be released.

warprints said:
It will happen one day. But there was a bit of anearthquake in Japan ... you may have heard about it on the news.

Humpf... :)

warprints said:
It will happen one day. But there was a bit of anearthquake in Japan ... you may have heard about it on the news.

smile