Hi guys,

Nikon has two ways it can go: It can upscale the 14 megapixel processor with the Multi-Cam 1000 autofocus sensor module or it can downscale the 16 megapixel processor with the Multi-CAM 4800DX autofocus sensor module. Since both are new to their DSLRs, either one is a legitimate strategy and would be popular choices.

If it upscales the 14 megapixel processor, it's a good bet that the LCD will be 920K, and that it will have a stereo plug-in for the video. Whether the LCD will be articulated is less clear, especially since video was fairly new in the d5000 and articulation was likely being tested as a feature. Their market research will give them the answer on this one. Could they have a low res articulated screen and stereo plug-in? That's possible as well? What you almost certainly won't have is dual storage cards, two selection wheels, and the nifty AF selection button.

If it downscales the 16 megapixel processor, you'll lose any chance of a high res LCD and probably the stereo plug-in. Think today's d5000 with the 16 megapixel processor. The same factor applies to the articulated screen as before. If Nikon's research shows it was useful, they'll keep it.

When will it come? Based on past life spans, you can expect it sometime from April to July 2011. Which one will it be? I think this is a tough one because both strategies would likely be popular. Awesome processor and pedestrian supporting cast or good processor and upscale supporting cast. You can probably make a good argument for either. Personally, I'd go with good processor and upscale supporting cast, like a 920K LCD and stereo plug-in.

Hi CasualHobbyist:

I am pretty much in the same boat as you are. I have a heavily used D40 and am looking for an upgrade. I have decided to wait for D5100 for a few reasons: 1. D7000 is too big and heavy for me as I travel a lot. 2. Hope that D5100 will have a better resolution LCD like the one on D90/D7000. 3. I really don't want to buy the D3100 with another 18-55 kit lens. The one came with my D40 has virtually never been used. Like you, I am using 18-200 VR almost exclusively (until recently I got an excellent 35mm/f1.8 for indoor use). I am hoping when D5100 comes out, it will have a body-only option.

Cheers

I have two wonderful lady friends who are both amateurs but love to take photos. They both are small and do not want to spend all their money on camera gear. A D90 works perfectly for them. The D7000 will be better. As to pointing at backlight subjects those gals get the lens specular highlights pretty regularly, in my photos they are almost absent. I think the size of these cameras is a poor way to buy cameras. One of the best examples i can think of is an international travel agent who is in some amazing places. Picking a Coolpix 80 or P100 gives her many images that fall way short of perfection. A D3100 is a very good entry camera and that actually would be perfect for your wife. The way you achieve real value is to buy gear which never needs to be replaced. You'd get better value for both of you with the higher level camera. A D3100 is far above Coolpix or Powershot P&S. It is a real bargain. But the more serious your wife becomes..... the more you really are better with the better level rig. Once even a small lady gets set to photograph, braced etc., the slightly heavier camera is just as good, probably better at doing the scene justice.

@DaveyJ: Thanks for that input. It confirms how I'm leaning on this. I think I would like more camera than what the D3100 offers. However, I think the D7000 is more than what I need, although I would be very happy with the D7000 if I were the only one using it. My wife will end up taking more pictures than me with what ever I buy. She's very good at composing pictures and takes a lot of good ones of our family. On the other hand, she has no interest in reading manuals or fooling around with a camera to figure out how to use the different functions. (Her biggest flaw in composition is putting the sun or whatever light behind her subject, so I think the D lighting will be great for her.) I would still be tempted to go with the D7000, but my wife is small with small hands, so I'm afraid the D7000 might be too large for her.

So for now, I think the best solution is to patiently wait for the D7000. I just have to believe that Nikon will be introducing one in the not too distant future, because the D5000 is selling for less than the D3100 right now.

@CasualHobyist: Again I have used the D3100 a lot. I am certain the D5100 will be a better camera due to more serious features. I have used the D90 and a D3100 side by side. The D3100 beat the D90 for video and nothing else. All that said the D3100 is a very good entry level camera. I repeat, very good. If you are studying this very much though I might suggest that no amount of study will make the D3100 the camera that the D7000 is. How important is having better HD video. To me, HD video is important. We own maybe a dozen video cameras. I use the D90 video more than the real video cameras. But in HD video the D90 just plain needed an upgrade. So many features on the D3100 are some much better than the D3000 Nikon it is a real tribute to the D3100!! But if you are that serious I do not think the D3100 is for you unless that smaller size is for some reason very attractive. Combined with a 18-55VR and an 55-300VR it is very good. But having shot that side by side with D90 with a 18-105VR and the 70-300VR I would in still give the edge to the D90! Factor in the newer video on the D3100 and the picture gets muddier. For YOU and you alone, it sure would be nice if Nikon's D5100 was already here. But I would humbly suggest that the D7000 may give you more room to grow and it is here soon for delivery. Once you make your choice you have a camera that will work for years to come. That is value! You were wise to study this through NR as you will get good advice and yes we all have our party lines! Nikon is not really fast to introduce new cameras or lenses though and that I believe is precisely why NR is very useful. It does give you a better crystal ball than just are own intuition.

RAW comparison of D3100, D300s and D700 using RAW and CNX2 (NR off). Files from Imaging Resources

3200 (D700 is 6400, not 3200 as in crop):

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1034&message=36569288

6400 (D700 is 12800):

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1034&message=36569830

Given ISO starts at 100, very good results, I'd say 1/2 stop better than D300s and 1 1/2 stop under D700.

I like both the ideas, and both would be available today (pending touch-screen delivered by Nikon you'd need to do the second trick with an external display) IF Nikon would do as Thom has discussed and open the firmware.* Neither are that difficult to implement on a technical level.

*If (actually it is likely) Nikon is under multiple NDAs for particular algorithms and hardware drivers they use, they could always follow the existing model (Maemo, nVidia's Linux drives, etc) of opening the actual kernel and userspace while keeping "sensitive" modules and drivers as binary blobs. Grrr, I don't want to get started on how frustrated I am with the (common) unwillingness to do so.

EDIT: I won't go any deeper off-topic with that gripe.

I'm also 99.9% sure the video AF is based on contrast detection, and you're right that it's most likely limited by AF speed not CPU power or the algorithm used. The D7000 does AF with D lenses, so it's possible that it has a slight edge over the D3100 focus speed with some non-AF-S lenses compared to D3100 with AF-S lenses.

And as someone who teaches a a conceptual physics lab course where ultrasonic rangefinders are used pretty often, I also agree that way would probably give distances all over the place because they're so easily confused/aimed wrong.

I'm probably just dreaming, but what I think would be awesome is an external device that plugs into the GPS input of the camera and would let you control focus by outputting one of a set of focal distances that have been user-preset or that could be input in real time—a digital focus puller, if you like. The camera would take the info from the focus puller device and adjust focus using the distance info it gets from the lens. Mate it to an IR laser rangefinder that could update the focus puller's distance output to the camera by simply pointing it at any object and pressing a button and it would be fantastic.

Here's another good idea I've thought about, which would even work with the current technology but would be better if they ever get phase-detected AF during video worked out (like those new fixed-mirror Sony DSLRs can do). Instead of relying on face-detection or scene recognition to choose where to focus, why not put a touch-screen on the camera and let the operator drag their finger along the screen over the subject they want to track?

At least I think these are good ideas. They always sound better before critical review, though. ;-)

No direct knowledge, but it is very likely very similar to the D3100's AF, in style if not in amount.

Contrast-detect AF must overshoot focus near and far in order to determine center (proper) focus.

With phase-detect (which can't be done on a traditional sensor (you would need to put detectors in the middle of the sensor, creating imaging blind spots), as you need to split the light before it gets to the detector) you can measure how far out of focus the image is, and equally importantly, which direction.

With contrast-detect you must literally hunt back and forth until you get the highest contrast, and this can only be known by seeing lower contrast on either side. This is why the D7000 will exhibit the same behavioral qualities, even if the quantity is a bit less. (and making the quantity a bit less would be very hard, as in a properly-implemented system the lens focus motor's speed is the limiting factor.)

Phase-detection focusing on sensor is coming soon, there is little doubt of that, but if the D7000 had it we should have expected MASSIVE PR from Nikon.

EDIT: I know a bit of what I said above seems like backtracking from my earlier post, but the more I thought about it and the more I did the math the more I don't believe jpg-processing speeds would be a reliable indicator of movie AF speed. In this post I said "properly implemented" and that's kind of a cop-out. By "properly-implemented" I mean that the AF detection routines are not CPU-limited - something I gotta believe Nikon spent the additional ten cents on die-space to ensure.

EDIT 2: I also know I said I was unsure if Nikon was doing contrast-detect for movie-AF in the earlier post. Again, the more I think about it and the more I look at the posted videos I'm growing increasingly confident they are. The alternatives are either ground-breaking (split-phase on sensor) or extremely cheesy (active range-finding, even if you tracked motion via doppler shift, would give false results often).

Thanks for that analysis!

Does anyone know if there is a difference in the movie auto focusing of the D3100 and D7000? I wasn't very impressed with the samples on the weekly news post of the D3100 auto focusing.

Intro - remember the previous DX lineup: 3000 -> 5000 -> 90 -> 300

Ok, let's talk about the previous difference between the lines, what we know about how that has changed, and try to extrapolate, for comparing the old 5000 to the new 3100 could be misleading.

1) The D5000 shot faster than the D3000, yet slower than the D90. Pick a number somewhere between the D3100 and D7000 and you're likely close to what the D5100 will do.

2) Yes. The D5100 will likely bracket.

3) The 3000 had a older generation sensor and current generation (but very slow) processing engine. The D5000 had the latest DX sensor and significantly faster processing engine.
Well, unlike the D3000 and the D60 (what it replaced) before, the D3100 is not using the previous generation sensor, so we know the D5100 can't be a generation ahead. That said, the D7000 is using a different sensor than the D3100, and if history is any guide in this matter the D5100 has a good chance of sharing the D7000's sensor.

4) The D5000 had an identical meter and AF setup to the D90, as did the 3000. They 11 points and 3D AF tracking (which relies on the meter as well), but did it (tracking) poorly compared to the 300.
The D7000 appears to have an AF / meter combo which very well might exceed that of the D300. The D3100's AF system is the same as the D3000's, I would not be shocked at all to see the D7000's system in the D5100.
Then again, I also wouldn't be shocked to see the D7000's sensor and the D3100's AF / meter. Part of me believes this is more likely.

Video autofocus is not using the in-the-prism-box phase-detect AF points like still photos. I have not seen exactly how Nikon is doing it, but if it is contrast-detect (like point and shoot cameras) it is CPU-bound and one should expect JPG processing speeds to be a decent predictor of AF speed. Is the D7000 faster at movie AF than the D3100?

No reason to expect the 5100 to have an in-body AF motor, the D5000 didn't.

Every reason to expect the D5100 to have at least one distinguishing trick none of the other bodies have. Something half-way between the D3100 and D7000 isn't nearly as enticing from a marketing point of view as something unique. The D5000 had a flip-out screen, and seeing how Nikon really raised the D90 bar with the D7000 I would not be surprised to see that AND another trick on the D5100.

Since I started this thread, I obviously agree with the last 3 posters who said that they believe that there will be a D5100. Assuming that will be true, the next question would be: what features/specs will it have that the 3100 doesn't?

I've looked at the comparison between the D3100, D3000, and D5000 on the dpreview.com to see what features the D5000 has that the D3100 does not. I don't see many advantages for the D5000 except:
1.) The D5000 will shoot 4 fps vs. 3 fps for the D3100,
2.) The D5000 does bracketing and the D3100 does not, and
3.) The D3100 only has Active D Lighting on/off and the D5000 has six different options.

What other advantages might a D5100 have over the D3100? I could see it having more AF points - similar to the D7000. Would it have better video autofocusing? What else?

It's not just the gap, or lack thereof, in the pricing. It's the gap in the specs. Just as there was a significant gap in specs going from 3000 - 5000 - 90, right now there's some sizeable holes left in the territory between 3100 and 7000. For some amateur shooters, the 7000 might be a bit too much; for others, the 3100 won't quite be enough. The 5100 could be the "Goldilocks" option that bridges that gap. I also tend to agree with PB PM that the 3100's price will go down at some point in the not-too-distant future, leaving room in terms of price points for a 5100 to be slotted in.

I think the D5100 is needed by Nikon. The D7000 is going to really sell well! The D3100 is a superb entry level camera. But I agree with PB PM that there is a lot of room for the D5100, question is what Nikon actually did about making one. Seems like a LOT of room in their line up for one. Also the Canon T2i would be far better answered by a D5100.

D3100 prices will likely fall down to D3000 levels in a few months once the stock of the latter is gone, leaving lots of room for the D5100.

I think the d5100 is quite a ways out if there ever will be one. Pricing wise it just doesn't make sense, d3100 is roughly $700, with the d7000 being $1200, the d5100 would theoretically come in at around $900-1000, too close to the d7000, especially as by the time a d5100 is released the d7000 will probably have had at least a $100 price drop (because that's how far out the d5100 is), bringing their prices even closer together.

Errr, D7000 vs 7D, no, too many missing features. What is missing? For semi pro users, who the 7D/D300s are aimed at, things like PC sync ports and some of the other features matter.

D3100 = Canon XS/Xsi/T1i. Yes they are not in production, but they are still selling.
D5100 = T2i
D7000 = 60D (Canon got PAWNED)
D9000/D400? = 7D

D5100 may be a year or two.

Nikon D3100 = Canon 550D
Nikon D5100 = Canon 60D
Nikon D7000 = Canon 7D

Why wait?

I mean why are you looking at this like you can't buy it now and resale it later?

I was semi in your positon. I had a D60 and wanted to move up, I had considered an old D80 but really wanted the D90, I hesitated because I kept hearing the D90 replacement was coming.

I am so glad I said, screw it, and bought my D90. Love this camera and since buying it I put a little into savings each month and now I can get the D7000 and sell off my D90 and keep on shooting.

Though I do think the D7000 will be all the body I need for now as I don't shoot pro so there is no need for anything more.

My investments will be in lenses.

I have used the D3100. The video is better than on my D90. I am ordering a D7000. The swivel screen on the D5000 is why I didn't buy one of those for a backup camera. Many I talk to don't like that feature. Also the LCD on the D5000 is not as good as on the D3100. The D5100 IF it is introduced will sure fix all this. But it could be a long wait. I'd buy a camera which has at least been announced and go out and take photos.

The only thing that I'd want on my 3100 (if I owned one) that the D5000 has is exposure bracketing. Apart from that, depending on your budget. I'd just go for the D3100. If not, and it doesn't seem like you're in a hurry, since you're willing to wait for the D5100 (should it ever happen), wait, save up and go for the D7000.

edit: From the video's so far, the autofocus is not all impressive. Plus Nikon isn't really a video powerhouse to begin with. But manual focus would probably be your best option. I'd suggest the D90, but if video autofocus is a main attribute you're looking for. D3100/D7000

Newfie said:
I doubt if there will be a D5100. There would be no Canon match.

The 60D has an articulating screen

I think Nikon has had so much trouble with it that they will try to fade it quietly away.
There really is little room between the D3100 and D7000. Nothing new is expected soon, so D5000 sales may be the decider.

The D90 is not a viable option for me, because I want the video autofocus.

If Nikon does make the D5100 look for it to drop the swivel screen like the D3100 did. The swivel screen was a BAD idea. If it ever broke off ( which some have )the camera is useless. And the cost to replace it is $200+. There may never be a D5100.

i doubt nikon will discontinue the d5000 line, the swivel screen it's a huge advantage over d3000 and there should be a camera that fits between the serious amateur (d7000) and beginner (d3100)