What to expect from Nikon at the 2016 CP+ show next week

Nikon at the 2016 CP+ show
Nikon booth CP+ show Japan
Here is what I expect Nikon to announce next week during the CP+ show in Japan:

Other rumors/expectations:

I have no information about any other new products, but as we already know, with Nikon everything is possible. I keep getting tips from reliable sources about a new large sensor Nikon mirrorless camera that will be announced at the end of the year (for the Photokina show in September) or in early 2017. For now nobody has seen any details or technical specifications. Nikon is working extra hard to make sure nothing comes out (just like they did with the D500). My hope is that they will make some kind of a pre-announcement / prototype display at the CP+ show, but the chances for that are very slim.

Nikon is in the process of refreshing their tele lenses with E and/or FL version - we will probably see some new tele lenses later this year.

New Df-like camera is rumored for Nikon’s 100th anniversary in 2017.

There will also be some new third party lenses for Nikon F mount:

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  • Eric Calabros

    a mirrorless FF will solve what problem? I don’t know. There are already too many FF bodies for very few FX buyers. It’s D3300 that begs for upgrade. and it should be seriously compact. Here is the problem:

    • Eric, I don’t see “FF” mentioned, just “large”. Compared to 1″, APS-C is also large.

      • Eric Calabros

        54mmx40mm is also large compared to FX 😉
        Whoever used that word probably meant FF. But I’d happy to be wrong

    • doge

      I think that new large mirrorless camera that keeps getting mentioned will be the new entry level interchangeable lens DX camera of Nikons future. Probably new lenses too.

      • Eric Calabros

        I afraid it’s not. Because no mention of the word “replacement”. Whatever it is, will be a new category.

        • doge

          Nah. They’ll just kill the D3xxx line and have this new mirrorless Dwhatever.

          • Eric Calabros

            Maybe. But I never forget everybody was saying Nikon killed the D300 line, and suddenly D500 came from nowhere.

            • Justtakethepicture

              For all intents and purposes they did kill it. I see the D500 as more of a resurrection 🙂

            • Sawyerspadre

              Or is it a reincarnation?

            • Thom Hogan

              Correct. The only truly new thing Nikon has done up to this point was Nikon 1. Coolpix iterated from the mid-90’s, DSLRs iterated from the late 90’s.

              KeyMission is apparently another new thing, though Nikon is stepping into quicksand there. But the fact that Nikon 1 was done and KeyMission has now poked its head out of the shell seems to indicate that Nikon thinks new product lines are viable. I don’t. I’ll put it this way: if Nikon can’t make the Coolpix and DSLR product lines viable in the modern post-smartphone world, they’re toast.

              Renaming, replacing, extending, adding product lines isn’t the thing that will save Nikon. Indeed, they need to be very, very careful here. Nikon’s long-established reputation is long-term legacy support. “New” that in any way makes people think that F-mount is over means that Nikon walks away from their established base to try to find a new one.

              Canon is not making this mistake.

            • Eric Calabros

              Marketing that new thing, whether be truly new or iterated new, gonna be real tough. keep the mount: how to show the size advantage over DSLR for mirrorless crowd? introduce a new mount: how to show its better than Sony, Fuji, Canon?

            • Thom Hogan

              Yep. And Nikon, like most of the Japanese camera companies, isn’t exactly strong at marketing. This is why eight years ago I said that the answer was to disrupt with a communicating, programmable, modular approach. The advantages of that are easy to market, easy for users to see.

              If all you’re going to do is compete on pixels, DR, video fps, size, and weight, these are indefensible positions. The first three are something that everyone can and is doing, the last two don’t even have technology to hold them back. In other words, there’s nothing you can really do in those areas to build any long term defensible position.

              This is similar to what happened to the computer makers, though there it was gigahertz, GBs, size and weight. Apple built a defensible position with software and to a lessor degree with “design” (the latter got copied, the former has been tougher to copy).

      • Max

        I’ve also been thinking about that. Makes sense. Lots of people who buy D3xxx line won’t even think/know about performance differences of phase/contrast AF, dedicated af sensors, etc.. it’s just bad luck for the minority who use apsc dslr’s to gain benefit from faster af, ovf, etc for their work.

        • Thom Hogan

          Yes, with one caveat. That’s that the reason you buy a low-end Nikon DSLR is the lens-in-the-closet proposition or price. That’s it. Nikon is generally not a price leader, and becoming one isn’t going to help them grow the business. So as long as the “can still use older Nikon gear” is part of the equation with a mirrorless D3xxx, then they’re okay. Break that, and they’re starting from square zero against competitors that are now seven years into the experiment and have well established lens sets.

      • Thom Hogan

        As I’ve outlined this week, that’s exactly where I’d tackle mirrorless if I were Nikon. But this brings up some tangential issues that need to be considered:

        * Canon is already there, so how does this not look like being late to the game?
        * The Nikon 1 suddenly doesn’t look viable, as the compacts squeeze it at one end and a DX mirrorless squeezes it at the other
        * Do you send a signal that a line is transitioning from DSLR to mirrorless, or that there is an additional mirrorless line that parallels DSLR?
        * Any required new lens line is going to be a huge potential fail point for Nikon; the only full lens line they’ve ever produced is FX, period, but competitors are building out full lens lines in mirrorless

        • Good points. I would like to use a mirrorless for one reason – it is quiet – and at many events it is important. Add high usable ISO, I would be seriously interested.

    • Alexander Thomas

      A FF or larger sensor mirrorless will fill in a large market that Nikon currently has no foot in. Believe it or not the Sony A7 and A6000 sell very, very, very well.

      • doge

        No they don’t.

      • Eric Calabros

        A7 sales is far from “very, very, very” anything. A6xxx is the leader of DX mirrorless though, but its still in $1000 range. We’re talking about a $500-600 body.

        • istreetshooter

          The A6000 was released with a kit lens (power zoom and manual zoom) for $800, but they now sell for $650. The A6000 body is selling for $500. The A6300 will sell for $1,000 with 4K video and a more rugged body.

          • Thom Hogan

            I’m not sure what you’re arguing here, istreetshooter. Sony pushed the price of pretty much all their “Mark II” endeavors upwards. Higher price = lower sales.

            • istreetshooter

              I’m not making an argument, Thom. I’m clarifying the pricing of the Sony A6000 versus A6300 in reference to the post to which I responded. The original post does not distinguish between the two cameras at the $1,000 price point stated in the original email. As this is a Nikon forum, some people may not follow the Sony pricing as I do not follow Canon pricing. That’s all.

        • Max

          In South Africa, Sony’s camera division closed down last year! Fuji is selling really well here. But I don’t know if the little SA market is any indication of the global market..

      • mikeswitz

        Um…..no.

      • hje

        It’s no big market. “the Internet” thinks it is. (full frame mirrorless).
        But of course it will grow. And even if not I’ll be happy to see a nikon fullframe mirrorless (I’d even be happy with a dx)

        A big market is binoculars, field scopes the so called Sport Optics . There is a reason why canon and Pentax is now pushing into this market too.

      • Thom Hogan

        If by well you mean that Sony’s mirrorless cameras have about 14% of the total ILC market to Nikon’s 33% and Canon’s 40%+, then yes, they sell “well.” But with the new pricing and no real fire sales in recent months, Sony’s share is now slipping again.

    • PhilK

      Well it’s not as simple as that. A lot of people think that the key distinction between a toy like a smartphone and a “real camera” is having a “real viewfinder” too. You’d have to bolt that on to the Canon, and now it’s size advantage is not so clear.

      Also, Canon has yet another unique lens line specifically for that series, to help it achieve that compactness. It would be a little insane for Nikon to try to match that, unless they killed off something else like Nikon1 at the same time. Is that what you propose?

    • Michael Laing

      It would give Nikon photographers with manual lenses a better chance of focusing manually at low apertures. Nikons rangefinder system for DSLR’s is not up to standard. Yes, I can use the rear screen to guarantee focus, but that takes a lot of faffing around. I would much prefer to use focus peaking and an EVF, which I do with my Fuji and makes life much easier. If Nikon release a decent professional level mirrorless, with a built in EVF, I would order it as soon as I knew Nikon hadn’t buggered it up.

      Also being able to see the image you are going to get makes life easier and in constant light situations an EVF is going to do that.

      I shoot manually, it is the quickest way for me to get the photo I am after but I also don’t want to make life harder than it needs to be and mirrorless, allows me to do this. It is the final image which is important to me, not so much setting up the camera to get it the shot.

      • KnightPhoto

        This is one reason why I want an optional add-on EVF for my DSLRs. No need for an entirely separate camera to handle the EVF use cases, just let me attach the EVF as needed for LiveView still and video shooting. Rest of time the OVF is fine.

        • Michael Laing

          For shooting video, I would much prefer using an external recorder than have an EVF on a DSLR for static shooting or shooting with a gimbal or steady cam system. If I was shooting shoulder mounted I wouldn’t want an EVF on the hotshoe mount, more likely to the side of the camera.

          Also I don’t know if the conventional Nikon hotshoe would allow for adding an EVF, Nikon would probably have to adapt the hotshoe for future DSLR’s.

          The Nikon one uses a completely different hotshoe but Nikon hasn’t released an adapter to allow normal flashes to work with the One system (as far as I am aware (there may be a 3rd party who makes one but it pretty damning if Nikon don’t even make one)).

          • PhilK

            I doubt that the hotshoe itself would contain all the necessary connections, presumably there would be some other cable or connector involved.

  • Large(r) sensor mirorless and anniversary DF sound like interesting items, plus the lens refreshes…

    Thanks for the update, even though “Nikon is working extra hard to make sure nothing comes out” :/

  • doge

    I hope these 1″ cameras are actually DX cameras. Unless you live outside on the equator, that 1″ sensor sucks.

    Let’s hope for 3 new versions of the Coolpix A, but with a better name and really only 2 versions. A 16mm version and a 55mm version. f/2 glass would be neat.

    • I think those are all 1″ and DX will probably come later but I could be wrong.

    • QuantalQuetzal

      I don’t really get the idea of having a 1″ sensor fixed lens. Is the 1″ interchangeable lens system not small enough already? What else do you gain?

      • Thom Hogan

        You gain the ability to retract the zoom lens into the body when the camera is not on. The Sony RX100 has an arguably better lens than the Nikon 1 kit lens, and it does not extend out from the camera when it is off, which makes the RX100 pocketable.

    • Kevin8503

      ^ This. I’m waiting for a new Coolpix A – whatever they may call it. DX sensor in a pocketable camera. Gimme.

  • T.I.M

    Any news from my D30x30 yet ?
    Only 3 months left….

    • T.I.M

      by the way, the lowepro x450 AW is still on sale at B&H for $149, I bought one, very nice, it fit all my short primes + 2 D800 and 2 SB900.

    • preston

      What are you talking about? I know you usually don’t stay on topic and like to joke around, but I don’t get this reference. .

      • T.I.M

        Well, last year I received several informations about the D810 successor.
        The beast will have a 48MP FX sensor, the name should be D900 (30×30) but that can change (maybe D850 ?)
        The D30x30 price will be higher than the D810 (about $3995) so it may be made in Japan.
        ISO noise will be improved (about one stop better compared to the D810)
        And the dynamic range should also be better.
        Video will be 4K at 60fps, no tilting screen (thanks God!)
        I don’t know about the type of the recording cards.
        It should have been release in October 2015 but it’s now scheduled for May-June this years (maybe Nikon wanted to release the D5 BEFORE the D30x30.)

        • preston

          Ok. Thank you for clarifying that.

  • nzswedespeed

    Any rumours on the other action cameras? The key mission was a big surprise, but I feel 360 footage is a bit niche.

  • Nakayamahanzaemon

    How about the successor of the D810? Do you have any information? If the full frame mirrorless camera comes up, it could cannibalize the sales of the D810 replacement which is hopefully out in late 2016 or 2017.

    • no info on a D810 replacement

      • Jack Scholl

        Admin,
        Do you think this is the end for the Nikon 1?

        • I don’t think Nikon will give up on the Nikon 1 or at least they will not admit it for a long time. If they come up with a new model, I don’t think they will sell many, so I think they will let it hang up in the air just like the D300 replacement.

          • Jack Scholl

            Thanks very much for the reply. Trying to decide what upgrade makes sense and appreciate your insight.

      • Max

        Right after Canon releases the 5d4 might be a good time for Nikon to unleash the D810 replacement 🙂

    • Wesley

      Better to cannibalize your own camera sales than to have them buy a competitor’s product.

  • dclivejazz

    The new tech in the D5 and D500 should start migrating to other models such as the D810 and D750 sometime in 2016 or 17. They will be further exciting developments. I hope they concentrate on successfully launching the D5 and D500 first, though.

  • whisky

    the V3 is growing long in the tooth so i hope some of that D500 goodness is destined to trickle down into the next wave of Nikon 1 V series cameras.

    • Captain Megaton

      N1 news ish quieter then’ crickets!

  • cookie

    The D3200 has been introduced in May 2012. The D3300 has been introduced in Febr. 2014 and the D3400 will be introduced in Febr. 2016
    my two cents

  • zorwick

    D850?

  • PPronovost

    Any chance or rumor of an upgrade to the upgraded 24-70/2.8 VR given the less than stellar reviews compared to the original, non-VR version?

    • Not a chance, way too soon, maybe by 2021

  • MonkeySpanner

    Anyone see the crazy rumor about a sigma 50-100/1.8? That would be a game changer and a more interesting fl than the 18-35/1.8 – for me anyway.

  • Morris

    Next: 400/600 f4 DO/PF (like canon) at lower price than non DO version
    NOW! and Sigma Sport answer to such lenses COME ON GUYS

    • KnightPhoto

      Fine. But where do you see evidence that DO/PF lenses are cheaper than non-DO/PF?

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