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“Extraordinary losses” as a result of the flooding in Thailand

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Nikon posted a notice describing the losses due to the flooding in Thailand as "extraordinary": ¥10,904 million (around $143 million). Nikon received an insurance payment of ¥500 million (around $6.5 million). Additional insurance payment is pending.  As a results of the losses, Nikon changed their forecast of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012 as follow:

Forecasts for Year ending March 31, 2012 and Results of Year ended March 31, 2011
Net Sales Operating income Ordinary income Net income
Forecasts for Year ending March 31, 2012 925,000
Million yen
72,000
Million yen
80,000
Million yen
55,000
Million yen
Results of Year ended March 31, 2011 887,512
Million yen
54,052
Million yen
55,811
Million yen
27,312
Million yen
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  • paul

    So THIS is why a 16mp full frame costs $6k?

    • Daniel

      so Paul actually still believes that more megapixels = better camera and image quality?
      *sigh*

    • KT

      Actually, considering that the D3X is still selling fo 8K and the new Canon 1D X is slotted to sell for $6800, I would say the D4 price tag of $6K is a very fair price for what you getting. Of course, I would have liked it to be $5K instead but you don’t always get what you want.

      • paul

        I’m only upset because I can’t afford it :(

        I’ll be looking for a D3s with low clicks in the near future instead :)

        • http://www.seanmolin.com Sean Molin

          +1

        • tengris

          Like new D700s sell tremendously low recently.

          • http://luannestone.com Luanne Stone

            Where?

    • Andrew

      I agree with Paul, Nikon had to discount the D4′s price to $6k in order to increase sales. Since the departing D3x cost $8k, this is the time to pick up the D4; though it is not truly a D3x replacement, it is worth every penny. I hope Paul agrees with my interpretation of his statement – though I see his sarcasm.

  • ken

    Will it affect d800 prices is what I want to know….

    • Andrew

      It should not. The D800 price should be based upon market conditions and the competition.

  • Shawnino

    And yet, all those new coolpixes are coming to market unscathed.

    Sheesh.

    • Merv

      Probably the return on investment for the Coolpix’s are still high, and Nikon hardly needs any investment to make multiple lines.

      I’m guessing the the consumer level dSLRs (D7000, D5100, D3100) are probably Nikon’s biggest revenue source and provides the largest return on investment.

      • rhlpetrus

        And those were the suffering the most. All made in Thailand, with sensors made by Sony also in Thailand.

    • Zoetmb

      That’s because the Coolpixes are all made in China and they weren’t affected by either the earthquake in Japan or the flooding in Thailand. No reason for their prices to change. But I will say that the new line of Coolpixes is even more dull than usual. But that’s probably also because I think Nikon put all of their efforts into the new mirrorless line.

      Besides, the biggest reason for the increase in U.S. prices is the continued decline of the dollar against the Yen. $1 USD buys only 76 Yen. In 2007, it bought 120 Yen. That’s a 36% decrease in value. At 2007 conversion rates, the D4 could have been priced at $3640 U.S. Imagine how many they could have sold at that price!

    • Jim

      The flow of the Coolpixes remained unchanged because their lenses are made in Fairfield, CA
      At jelly beans

    • Bryan

      That’s because that one new Coolpix is waterproof ;-)

  • photobt

    affect on prices of camera is what people talk about after a extraordinary losses of this magnitude to Nikon and more importantly it’s employees….Good food for thought

    • Jk

      Photobt

      How about next time you splurge on a camera you think of all the peoples lives you could help change. So you never waste food or take a long hot shower?

      I sympathize with tragedy and loss but our everday actions do not justify your level of compassion and holier than thou attitude.

  • Jason Schmidt

    For those that may not know, “extraordinary losses” is an accounting phrase meaning unusual, unlikely to be repeated losses – a definition on the internet is: A loss caused by an unusual, infrequently occurring event or transaction. For example, a firm might sell a money-losing business at a price lower than the value at which the business is carried on its balance sheet.

    • http://traveljapanblog.com/wordpress Al, CPA

      Actually, that would be a “discontinued operation” not an “extraordinary loss”.

  • Jay

    am i missing summat here, 2012 numbers are better than 2011′s!

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      For the nine months of the year, yes. For the third quarter, no.

  • CR

    I give a damn on flooding, business-wise. They just didn’t do the contingency maths and want it now be paid by the users.

    I don’t care about real pros and pro equipment. These are paid by agencies, serviced by NPS and do take fotos to cash in. Many Pro studio and feature fotographs turn to large-format anyway, as that’s coming down from the top right now, former 40K offers are now covered by 10-20K camera options.

    What I care about is the amateur, who’s expensive hobby it is and who wants a decent and semi-pro quality full-frame to get the best result with his best effort and personal time he’s putting into it, without getting paid for it.

    Those amateurs ask for, and are waiting now for much too long:
    - D800, the biggest hole in the bank account to be below 2000usd, as they technological improvement promised for years, that APS-C would be temporary.
    - D400 for below 1300usd
    - D7100 for below 1000usd

    What we get is D800 for 3900,-, D400 maybe for 2000,-, D7100 maybe for 1300,-
    that’s ridiculous.

    If Canon fires the 5D III for 2000 usd, guess what will happen to Nikon?
    they go bancrupt with such a pricing strategy. No sale in point-and-shoot, no long-term sale in CX, no Amateurs, only DX-format consumer at low margin will be sold. That’s a field where Canon delivers well, already with the finally awsome rebels.

    Now, if Canon raises the bar for full-frame, too. Go to hell, I’ll go back to film and use digital for web-video and snapshots.

    Carlos

    • mikils

      Carlos,
      much as I would love Nikon to hear your prayers, I must say that your figures are no more than Wishful Thinking. Price trend for Nikon has been the same for the last years and are not going to go down anytime soon. The only way your prices can be seen as likely would be if you take ”usd” not for ”U S dollars”, bus for the word ”used”!

      As for Canon, I do not believe that is any more listening customers than Nikon or any other brand. Moreover, the only actually appealing camera in the Canon lineup, the announced-but-not-seen-yet 1Dx is announced to cost more than Nikon flagship D4, a thing that to my knowledge never happened before. So your notion of a 5DIII for 2k $ is bound to stay a delusion.

      • St.

        [CR] predicts $2700 for 5DMIII

        • Luke

          Yes I read $2700 prediction for the 5DMIII and an announcement date of february 28th …

      • CR

        I can see that, too. And I’d be ok if they just stopped purely rising the prices in big jumps.

        There’s no reason why a full-frame sensor of decent quality, e.g. last generation can’t be made available to the medium or lower portfolio range.

        Instead, I have to carry a pott of gold around with me, the may fall to street, get stolen, etc. Come On that’s too much of a budget to carry around like that.

        Remember when Pro Film Cameras were expensive?
        Can you remember a F3 for 6000USD? I can remember the lower models for around 500-1000 USD, and the pro cams for more or less 3000 usd depending on the optional motors, viewfinders and other stuff.

        I’m just fed up with the price jumps of 20-40% they’re currently pushing!
        It’s digital technology. Where’s your average PC, Smartphone did have that, if you compare like for like? See: Apple Newton PDA for 1600usd, now the biggest iPad < 900usd, Smartphones with WinMobile 5-6 around 700usd, now a iphone4S around 700usd, Power-PCs/business notebooks for 2000usd, now 1500usd.
        A D90 for 950usd, a D7100 for 1200usd,
        a D3S for 5000usd, a D4 for 6000usd,
        a D700 for 2400usd, now D800 for 3900usd?

        Am I mad?
        Yes, definitely. ;-)
        I expect this crappy business to be eaten by market breakers like apple for point-and-shoot. waiting to happen, as they're on the verge to rip off their customers that way after a long-term promise that APS-C is just a temporary step-in to full-frame at only slightly higher cost a few years from then.
        I'm lucky not having invested too much into lenses that don't fit my film and I won't continue.

        Carlos.

        • oldf*rt

          Bye then! :-)

        • Sandy

          Pure BS. You are posting current prices VS release prices. And you are not taking into account the yen/ dollar differences. Not sure why you think Nikon should take one for you, but get over your anger or take a hike.

          • http://friedfishstick.com flosse_r

            I am with Sandy on this. Apparently you (Carlos) have 0 clue about business. As a matter of fact, I would go as far as saying you have no clue, period. comparing a 3000 USD price tag from 1980 to a 6000 USD price tag today is ridiculous. Also what did those film cameras do? Did they offer the digital negative? No, did they offer the spectacular autofocus? no (not in comparison to todays at least) etc.
            Stop whining and get a 5d mark 3, and go to some other online forum where you can stir and participate in a pissing contest. geez man. Your comments have as much value to reality as a fart in a space suit.

        • Tiger1050Rider

          Well Carlos, a top flight DSLR is a far more complicated piece of engineering than a frigging smartphone or iPad.

          There is a lot of Mechanical bits in a DSLR that are really precision made. The shutters today are IMHO far more reliable than those in an F3/F4 etc. The electronics and their interfaces to the machanical bits are something that the F3/F4 designer would have had wet dreams about.

          Next time you want to start ranting on about prices etc, may I humbly suggest that you go and find a nice dark room and sit quietly and cound slowly backwards from 100 million to 0.

        • Bob Your Thing

          YES YOU ARE MAD and very silly!

          Comparing pricing of new cameras to those released 20/30 years ago. haven’t you heard of something called inflation?

          Go and use an iphone if if you want your digital camera cheap. Or go back to film and wait for a day or two to enjoy the photos where as in these days and age they would become pretty much irrelevant by the time they are developed as your friends and families will have moved on and be talking about other newer things.

          The market (Supply vs Demand) dictates the pricing so if you are betting against the market it will only mean one thing = LOSER.

    • speedy gonzales

      Aye caramba!!

    • St.

      Waiting for the D800 I went back to film and I have to tell you – it ends up pretty well…
      I agree with all you wrote, but don’t think the prices you ask for will ever happen.
      But if they are resp. $1100, 1500 and 2400 – it will still be good.
      Plus, do you see what huge discounts Canon have from quite a while – first it was the 5DMII – down to $1,799 now it is the 7D – down to $1,299.
      Nikon – everything out of stock and the second hand prices are astronomical.
      I love Nikon cameras and I have quite a lot (expensive) lenses, so I don’t want to switch, but idk – if they don’t change the strategy in long term – very few people will stay loyal.
      Plus I really don’t like that “swap” of strategy – to go for many MPx…
      Few more days and we’ll see….
      I hope we won’t be disappointed.

  • Brian Davis

    Maybe if they hurry up and release the D4, they could make some serious money back. Instead they’re just sitting on their asses. I really think they should get supply of the cameras before announcing it so they can immediately ship them.

    • JorPet

      Ummm, yeah. You should switch to Canon for sure then.

      What, Canon announced two months prior to Nikon for a camera that won’t be available until sometime in March.

      Announcing ahead of time allows for pre-orders and a good feel for demand before they ramp up production.

      • mikils

        Well spoken! Moreover, we are already getting people making comparison (unfavorable for D800- what else?) between a camera to be announced next week and a camera whose launch is nor announced nor even scheduled – somebody should think about launching his own site – Nikon/Canon Science Fiction, maybe?

  • Dweeb

    Just don’t make me pay for it. Let your stockholder’s eat the loss. You can always manufacture in Kansas.

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      Given the amount of hand assembly work in cameras, you’d pay for it if they were made in Kansas. Big time.

    • Calibrator

      “Let your stockholder’s eat the loss”

      You aren’t that knowledgeable in economy, aren’t you? (no flame intended)

  • http://www.dltp.co.uk Sausage Boy

    Expect Nikon will have better year with their new releases: D4, D800 and probably D400, also some lenses as well.

    Hope Nikon has re-adjusted their contingency plans and put extra steps in – as Natural disasters can happen again and at any time – even in the same place.

    Regarding the price increase with D4 of $6k wished they could have offered same price as the D3s but Canon 1d X is same price and their new telephoto lenses are about $2k – $4k higher compared to the lenses they replace but are lighter.

    • rhlpetrus

      D3200, D7100, D5100 likely along the year, V2/J2 whatever they are called, new lenses. They are doing well.

  • http://www.dltp.co.uk Sausage Boy

    Hello Carlos

    Yes the Nikon body prices are creeping up again; D7000 about £1000, D700 risen to about £1849 and think saw rumours that the price in UK of D800 just tad over £3000 – although 6 months or so after launch probably see it dive down to £2500 – could be mixture of the weak pound vs Yen/ Dollar, Nikon trying to recover some £/$$ from their disasterous year last year and our weak economies.

    The Canon 5d MK III I read will be rumored at $2700 / £2500 and an evolution of the current 5d MK 2 (with what should have gone in Mk 2 first place) – 22mp, Digi 4/5, 61 PT AF and some of the novel features from recent releases coupled with excellent lens kit package of the 5d + 24-104 F4 L IS plus rumored 3 lenses as well as being introduced by Canon.

    • KnightPhoto

      I can’t see 61 point combined with $2700 pricing. One or the other of those is going to have to give.

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      Nikon prices, when adjusted for inflation have actually gone down over the years; when measured in yen, they’ve remained remarkably stable. What people are seeing in price increases is mostly the result of their dollar or their Euro devaluing against the yen. Talk to your government about that, not to Nikon.

      • CR

        sorry, sounds right and may be a calc you can do, but it doesn’t happen on other asian to US to UK to EUrope conversion.

        By the way:

        1000USD are about 800EUR (far from exact, I know, but easier to read),
        but in EUrope you’ll pay for a 1000USD product 1100EUR,
        which makes us pay a value of 1270USD, calculated back. Take it, nearly 30% on top of the already increased prices by 20-40%.
        for digital stuff,
        that’s actually getting cheaper and more automated to be produced, see examples above, pro or con inflation, doesn’t matter, just changes slightly.

        • BornOptimist

          Prices in EUR always including taxes. Prices in USD are not.
          Taxes in Euroland are not the same all over, but an average around 20% is a good rule of thumb (in my country it’s 25%), so if you deduct 20% from the EUR price before doing a EUR-USD calculation brings the price quite close.

          • CR

            no prob, I accept the relative view, that’s why I started only comparing the USD figures, not to fuzzy you with EUR values that have a different cost-structure.

            But what’s still left jumping up is the USD price from around 2700usd for the d700 to 3900usd for a d800. That’s where I came from.

            Now, after months waiting, it sounds, as if the d800 might appear at 2700usd/eur, whatever currency. That’s far more realistic as an expected price, to me. Still I doubt Nikon would come below 3600,-usd. Let’s see and cross our fingers.

            For all others,
            don’t get confused about the EUR and its different cost structure. I do not compare EUR with USD, that’s a different discussion. But 2700 vs 3900 USD, while all along the market promised the typical technological price downturn.

            And my feeling is, that they just wanted us to turn into the APS-C / DX sweet intro, to keep the FX-carrot at distance for a long while, as long as ever possible.
            Although very well understandable as business strategy it pisses me off as a consumer.

            That’s all.

            cheers

            • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

              The US price of a D700 is technically still US$2999. It’s not uncommon for Nikon DSLRs to sell for up to 25% less at the end of their product cycle, which the D700 is NOT doing.

              Moreover, you’re jumping to conclusions about the price of the D800. To my knowledge, no one has yet accurately predicted what it will actually be. So constantly ranting about Nikon raising the price on it is not productive at this point.

        • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

          Same answer: talk to your government, not Nikon.

          As BornOptimist pointed out, you’ve got VAT to deal with. If you wanted to make a perfect comparison, you’d need to add Sales or Use Tax here in the states, which can hit 9.5%, but your VAT is generally at least double that. 20% VAT on 800EUR is 160EUR, so we’re up to 960EUR. Add in the cost of the inefficiencies of multiple languages subsidiaries and distribution, cost of differences in the required warranty policies, and a few other things that are different between selling in Europe and the US, and you’d have pretty much the same 1100EUR number you pay. Worse still, the Euro is dropping against the yen faster than the dollar, so that, too, adds pricing pressure upwards. That last bit has a high propensity to increase in the near future, too.

          So if you want to complain about high camera prices, make sure you’re blaming the right culprit. For the most part, it’s not Nikon.

          • west

            Not exactly.
            Products are marketed in different parts of the world based on whatever that particular market will bear.
            Be it the discrepancy between a Mercedes sold in California or Saudi Arabia, or something less dramatic where a camera or a lens is sold for “less” money in the US rather than in Canada, even though the Canadian dollar is valued higher.
            This goes even to gas that is exported to the US from Canada and retailed at 1/2 the price to it’s Canadian counterpart.

            • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

              Not really. There are a lot of things that cause a company to have what looks like different prices in different markets. One is import duties. Another is VAT. Another is business requirements and filings. One that doesn’t get talked about much is volume and the efficiencies it creates. The list is pretty extensive.

              Canada/US comparisons are actually one example of that volume efficiency and business requirement thing. Canada is a large country to serve in terms of physical area, but 1/10th the population. The business requirements and costs are different, too.

          • JorPet

            I think Thom nails it on a couple of accounts:

            1) VAT – this should not be reported in the price, it should be reported as a separate line item so those in Europe know exactly how much they are paying every time they purchase something. To Thom’s point, you need to remove VAT from the cost to get the actual price to compare to US prices.

            2) Having read the comments on European warranty policies on electronics, that has got to be a large chunk of the difference. That warranty coverage isn’t free and the longer it goes, the higher the cost. So again, you are paying for what your governments have imposed on the companies.

            3) The third point of multiple language support and distribution hadn’t occurred to me, but makes a lot of sense. If the US has a single distribution system and the overhead that goes with it for an economy as large as all of Europe, then Europe would have to have a single distribution system to be able to have the same amount of overhead. If each country has their own, then incredibly small markets have to pay for that overhead on their own.

            All of those add up to higher prices.

            • El Aura

              And should the multiple taxes a dealer pays also be listed as separate items? There is one big reason why prices in the US are listed without tax: because taxes differ from state to state and sometimes from town to town. It simply impractical to include the sales tax except for only locally traded goods, eg, groceries.

              Inside the EU, the VAT is the same for any given whole country which often means the same for a given language. And between the 27 countries there ‘only’ 13 different rates.

            • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

              +1 for Thom and Thom and Thom and JorPet.

            • mikils

              Incredibly small markets?

              2010 wikipedia figures
              USA 308.745.538 ab
              EU 499 723 520 ab (not including Serbia, Switzerland and Norway)
              of which Italy 60.742.397 ab., France 62.793.432 , Germany 81.772.000, and so on. So the markets are big enough to sustain a distribution system, and besides, the transportation are as much developed as in US (I worked in Import in Europe last eleven years, so I know).The VAT systems has its own special compensation mechanism in Europe, the prices without VAT are higher none the less. EU citizens are used to pay more for this kind of goods, so the discrepancies are tolerated, that’s all.

  • Baked bananas

    Don’t care. My d7000 is still going strong. Technically it’s supposed to be replaced this October which is wierd. I’m kind of (GASP) excited about the release of the 5dx (5dmkIII) at $2700. Sometimes you have to go behind ENEMY lines at canon rumors.

  • Yakka Yakka

    Peter, is the rumored price for the D800 still around $3600? Are you confident in that price? Just curious, it looks like we’ll find out in few days.

    • DeepC

      I think it will be $2900. Cost of 36 mp is not going to rise the price by $1200 :). Sensor size is still same. See d7000 it is better than 12mp d90 but not very high on the prices.

  • tonyc123

    The floods in Thailand were unprecedented, I don’t there are many companies in the world that would have the kind of redundant capacity necessary to just carry on unaffected after something like that. Of course its going to affect the balance sheet. Thats a fact of life.

    If you cant afford a particular brand, perhaps you need to look elsewhere…
    I can’t afford a Porsche 911 but I don’t sit around moaning about the price they charge for them, I just get something else… Funny though, you do see quite a lot of them on the road and Porsche are doing nicely without me.

    • http://www.robertash.com Robert Ash

      +1
      So very, very well said. You and Thom Hogan are true voices of reason in this thread. Thanks so much to you both.

    • CR

      True,
      many of the companies don’t care over a brochure about contingency.
      That’s based on risk assessments that validate the losses versus the costs to be fully redundant. But, being fully redundant is never an option, as it would make the cost rocket to the sky. Sure.
      But, it’s not about big contingency costs and not about inflation of 1-10%.

      It’s about a market that’s trying to squeeze money out of their customers with 20-40% relative price increases, with whatever faked arguments.

      It’s about everybody and countries being in crisis, but everybody seems to be happy to follow the manufacturers strategy of even higher prices.

      It’s about an average amateur that likes to have a real full-frame camera for a reasonable price in relation to the digital/chip-based markets around.

      Digitalisation and Globalisation work against raising cost:
      - You get better value for the same price, at an average of 5-10% per year.

      What happens now is, that we get 5-10% value improvements in features, sensors, etc. while having an average negative inflation change of 3%
      at a increased price of 20-40%, not talking about the inter-country marketing price-games.

      There’s room for Nikon to offer:
      a D4 for 5000usd
      a D800 for 2700usd
      a D400 for 1300usd
      a D7100 for 1000usd

      still a lot, but understandable.
      And a Canon 5D for 2500usd will move many over to Canon, for sure.

      Nikon shouldn’t stress it.

      I’d be my second switch 1. being from a pretty dead MF/AF minolta to Nikon.
      This 2nd would be back to film, as I’m fed up to just be their cashing machine.

      My 1. had the target to get into a reliable cam-system, like Nikon and grow quickly into full-frame. This market promise has lost it’s shine a lot now.

      a used 2yr-old D700 at 90% of the current Dealer-price of a new D700 make no sense either.

      cheers.

      • tonyc123

        Well, if you are right, then there may be price adjustments a few months after launch to counter the drift away from the brand. I doubt it though… Look how many people are pre-ordering Nikon and Canon products before they have even been reviewed properly & look at how many existing products are on back order.
        Demand will dictate the price and the demand, even in these rather difficult times is voracious.

      • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

        > There’s room to offer…

        Well, Apple could offer everyone in the US an iTunes Gift Card of US$300 and still have cash left over.

        You seem to not understand the function or role of a business. It’s to make profits. It uses those profits to generate future products and services. If it does its job right, it increases shareholder value, increases sales, increases product offerings, increases quality, increases employment, and does so constantly. Every now and again it has to endure an earthquake, tsunami, flood, Chinese worker strike, and more, so it needs a bit of cash reserves, too.

        Your arguments are just the usual “we’ll make it up in volume” thing in a different guise. Generally, you don’t. If you run on razor thin margins or cash flows you’re vulnerable to Early Business Death.

        And as I’ve kept pointing out to you but you simply ignore it: the reason why a D4 is higher than a D3 in US dollars is simple: last year at this time the exchange rate was 82 yen to the dollar. Today it is 76. That’s a 7% change, and Nikon just published their forward expectations, where they think that difference will increase. Let’s see, the difference between a D3s list price and D4 is 9%. Hmm. Coincidence? Not. Adjusted for currency, the D4 is actually selling for less on day 1 than the D3s did on day 1 in the US. Adjusted for inflation and currency, and the difference is even more dramatic.

        What you’re probably complaining about is that your salary hasn’t gone up 9%, thus the camera is more expensive TO YOU. It’s more expensive to most of us pros, too, as our incomes aren’t going up, either (usually down). Ultimately, Nikon takes a bit of a risk by keeping the price near constant as they have, but anyone paying attention knows that they will quickly offer rebates if the demand goes down.

        By the way, the cost of film? It’s gone up ;~)

        • CR

          First stop putting me on a “stupid corner” just because you don’t like what I say. You still may have a valid different view on a single aspect, but that doesn’t give you the right to be such a whatever.

          Second, as said I don’t care about the D4, which is the one I agree with you nears the “price-raise” values expected, the most.

          Third, as I outlined I do not accept 3000-3900 USD, thus higher in EUR prices for a D800. Because it will not be, put in relation to the D4, so much better, than the D700 to the D3. It’s supposed to keep the very same range-distance to the D4.

          And, I pretty well understand, where there’s demand you can rocket your price to the sky and rip your customers off as much as possible. It seems that’s your way of doing business and I hope companies will do it on you, as well.

          But, the real market is not that simple. There’s cost, logistics, competition, demand, supply, market-breach by different/new competitors, quality-expectations and so many more that will need to be put into the calculation. There’s simply no room to rocket your prices that way and I know for fact from serious people and professional AP photographers, that they’re reducing their private investments for cameras to a reasonable level, i.e. x100 + d7000 and rent the D4, or similar.

          All the pre-order fuzz is part of the marketing story. The most people who’re talking about, are in fact not pre-ordering cash down, but reserving. Many drop off. Then there are many who can afford checking out the cam, cry out to world being amongst the first to have it and then sell it off very soon in exchange to the next new thing. That’s not investing in gear for long-term 2-3yrs. There are only a few, that use pre-ordering for the thing they want to stick with, for overpriced products. The more reasonable wait for first results and shop-availability to check it out first before they buy. But ok, I may be totally wrong on that, as there’s certainly a different cultural approach to Shopping in US versus Europe. What we Europeans think to be silly may not be in US and vice versa.

          And, I’m not complaining about my salary. I’ve got a fair share that doesn’t get me thinking about it, at all. It’s about being reasonable in expenses, while actually not being… ;-) It’s our hobby, so we spend more on it, don’t we. Just do not want to through it out with four hands…. ;-)

          The cost of Film? Sorry, no increase I still pay my 3-6EUR for the roll and around 5EUR for development, as I did 10 years ago. Maybe on KODAK as many are stocking it now, but I liked Fuji or Ilford, quiet well, so no issue.

          2.700EUR for a Nikon D800 would have kept me silent and thinking on scheduling a slot at my dealer to check the camera out, but man, 3900USD? that would translate by Nikon-Germany to 4300EUR? come-on!

          I really hope 2.700EUR is the final tag, which would fit fine between my overoptimistic wish and the acceptable USD-Level.

          For You Thom: my calc is 499usd = 529eur (Nikon Germany exchange rate, check the numbers on amazon/nikon), while Oanda shows 499usd = 380EUR.

          have fun.

          • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

            Well, I just happen to have my tax files handy, so I can look up what I paid for slide film in 2001 and what I’d pay today. 14% increase for the roll of film I use itself. Can’t say for what’s happening in Europe, but that’s the apples-to-apples comparison here in the states buying from B&H (same emulsion, and in quantity, I might add). Can’t do a perfect apples-to-apples comparison on processing, as I’m on the opposite coast now and use a different processor, so don’t have those numbers, but I’ll bet they’re similar. So consider yourself lucky if what you claim is actually true and not just a guess on your part.

            As for currency calculations, I use those out of the NYC exchanges at the time I report them. Currently US$499 equals EUR379.1793. What you’re reporting is sales price, not exchange rate. I’ll use the first one I found on Amazon Germany: the Nikon J1 list is EUR599 on sale for EUR499. In the US it is currently US$649, on sale for US$599. So in that particular case you’re paying about 45 Euro more than the exchange rate implies, or about 9% more. And that includes VAT, so you’re actually paying LESS than we are in the US when you do an apples-to-apples comparison.

            One of the problems most of us have with your rants here are that you’re using words (“rocket your price to the sky and rip your customers off”) that aren’t actually supported by the facts. There certainly are price differentials. They are not nearly as dramatic as you seem to think they are, and much of the differentials can be explained by factors like taxes, regulations, and distributing costs.

            Nikon does use price to drive sales, but only in a downward fashion. They discount (as they are with a J1 in Europe at the moment) when they want to move more product. The remove the discounts and return to the full retail price when they want to lower demand (as they do with the D700 right now because they can’t fill demand due to the quake/floods).

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      Actually, I’d say that Nikon showed that they DID have contingency plans in place. They were one of the first of the impacted plants to simply set up shop temporarily elsewhere, and that happened pretty fast. There appear to have been two problems to that. First, they needed to order and install (in the temporary plant) new equipment. Second, some of their parts suppliers simply weren’t able to compensate. Shutters, for instance, are in very tight supply at the moment. I believe Nikon went so far as to begin manufacturing shutters themselves. All in all, I’d gauge their response as impressive, and especially so after having their other DSLR plant hit by a different set of calamities they had barely recovered from.

      Everyone needs to think about this in a different fashion: in LESS THAN A YEAR, Nikon will have completely replaced ALL of its DSLR manufacturing with completely rebuilt facilities, all while manufacturing a record number of DSLRs. If that doesn’t impress you, nothing will.

      • JorPet

        +100

        Excellent points.

        • http://AdairCreativeGroup.com Ron Adair

          ¡Orale!

  • Matt

    its funny. if you look at the actual losses, and what they are projecting, the numbers dont even remotely add up.

    id love to see an actual PNL.

    • Matt

      actually, nevermind. read some numbers wrong. oops.

  • Stve

    losses due to the flooding in Thailand as “extraordinary”
    You don’t have to be Nostradamus to realize the floods will happen again in the same location.
    Global warming = more rain.

  • netincome

    Its seems that Nikon had a jump in NET INCOME from last year which does not seem like they are hurting! It looks more like nikon is taking advantage of higher pricing for more profit to me.

  • Shane

    The d800 will be priced around 3000 euro 2700$ is what I heard recently from source
    Remember Nikon make there big money on the dx cameras such as d7000 d5100 due to there large output of dx sales

  • West

    What’s the deal between FORECASTS vs RESULTS
    It looks like they come up with an arbitrary number to shoot for and if they don’t get it, the year ends up as a loss.
    So, since I started out last year hoping to make 10 million from my photography, but only managed enough to pay for my rent, I can show the Tax department a HUGE loss that I can carry over for years to come :)

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      Nikon is one of the few Japanese companies that present clean, detailed forward-based estimates. Generally speaking, they’ve tended to exceed those estimates in the past few years. The times they haven’t were all due to special circumstances, like the flood.

      But as for your “financial analysis” of Nikon’s numbers, you are incorrect, so I hope you do better with numbers when you file your own tax forms. While Nikon made a small overall operating profit in cameras during the quarter, they also had very large, one-time, direct-out-of-pocket cash expenses, like paying employees that weren’t making anything (or not making as many as usual once they went to the temporary plant), completely replacing the equipment in the plant, renting and outfitting a temporary plant, cleaning up the mess left by the waters, and much more. Those things are just some of the things that added up to the actual monetary loss they reported.

      I’m also glad you put a smiley face on your last statement, as tax-loss carry forwards aren’t typically a monetary gain. Moreover, on your tax statement in the US, you’d be restricted to how much you could declare each year, so it would be a race to see whether you paid off your student loan or collected all your tax loss first ;~).

      • west

        I think the key word here that you keep misrepresenting as fact is “estimates”.
        An estimate of “future value” is left to the author’s imagination.
        Doing rear view mirror financial analysis is as old as the corporate world.

        PS. I don’t have tax problems, thanks for caring :)

        • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

          Show me a manner in which I’ve misrepresented the word “estimates.” After you’ve done that, explain your statement “looks like they come up with an arbitrary number…year ends up in a loss.”

          You seem to be trying to say that Nikon estimated that they’d sell X cameras, and when they didn’t, they declared that miss as a loss. That’s not at all what they did. Not even close.

  • Jeff

    I wonder if this is going to have an impact on the quality of there new cameras? Maybe using cheaper parts to make up for losses?

  • nunatak

    november 11, 2011 nikon rumors reports: Nikon doesn’t expect the impact of the floods in Thailand to be excessive because the factories in Thailand are covered by insurance

    february 03, 2012 nikon rumors reports: Nikon posted a notice describing the losses due to the flooding in Thailand as “extraordinary”: ¥10,904 million (around $143 million). Nikon received an insurance payment of ¥500 million (around $6.5 million). Additional insurance payment is pending.

  • Shane
    • Steve Starr

      Still speculative pricing until Nikon does the formal release.

      From the article, they suspect the body without the AA filter will be only 330-400 euros more too <$3K euros, to $3.4K maximum?). Seems a stretch, but who knows until then?

      Have to love Nikon for releasing so little info it makes the public batty for the product as well as the press. I wonder how the authors of these "How to work it" books get their info if they are indeed in a holding pattern until shipped? I know some who manufacture supplemental gear get enough AutoCad artwork to make stuff for them like tripod brackets and such months ahead of release.

  • Shane
    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Now if they did not get the press release, how is this information official?

  • Anonymous Maximus
    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      yes, pretty much what I have been reporting here for months

    • Anonymous Maximus

      Some exerpts which was not clearly known until now:

      * Less than € 3000 (AA version), € 300 more to pay for the non-AA
      * 100g lighter than D700
      * New high DR & low noise Sony Exmor sensor
      * High ISO noise level equivalent to Sony Nex-7 on pixel level. Here is an ISO 6400 full-scale sample from Nex-7: http://masters.galleries.dpreview.com.s3.amazonaws.com/1604445.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=14Y3MT0G2J4Y72K3ZXR2&Expires=1328309162&Signature=BKmkTbuWFI4x2igbv%2fspojvtpPg%3d

      • Anonee

        A little more accurate info, yet we almost knew the above thanks to NR !

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        The same price was mentioned on the Japanese digicame-info back on October 3rd, 2011:

        http://nikonrumors.com/2011/10/03/the-name-will-be-nikon-d800-the-sensor-will-be-36mp-99-probability.aspx/

        I guess the only “real” news is that the D800 will be 100g lighter. The ISO noise level is subjective.

      • CR

        slight correction. I translate the french text as:
        confirmed!: +300-400EUR for AA-less filter
        “expected”: <3000EUR for the AA-version body

        What the price will be, we still _do_not_know_!

        My perspective is that they claim EUR as the currency, where it's supposed to be USD. Thus based on all this I assume we're running into a 2999USD D-800 (AA), and 3299USD D-800 (AA-less), at best.

        To me that translates in EUR list price of: 3199EUR (AA), and 3499EUR (AA-less). based on the 85mm example: 499USD vs. 529USD

        thank you.

        • CR

          sorry, “499USD vs. 529EUR”

  • DeepC

    5d iii and d800 will not be different in prices but 5d iii will be sold better because it will have much better color accuracy with 22mp than 36mp d800 which will have d7000 type of color reproduction.

    • Anonee

      Huh, sure?

  • DeepC

    Of course. 16mp d7000 x2.25=36mp d800.

    And d7000 has much worse color reproduction than 5d mark ii which has 21mp full frame.

    5diii will have same pixel as before.

    • http://Www.deeepakchourasia.com DeepC

      I use canon and Nikon both FYI.

    • Bob Your Thing

      You talking shit using you ass so I guesss you mostly walking upside down.

      The d7000 has got a lot more dynamic range (2 stops from DxO) than the mk2 and only loses out a touch in colour depth.

      For the intended purpose of landscape + fashion the D800 will kill the 5D3 with ease. Not to mention the superior wide angle lens that Nikon has to offer.

  • Jesse

    I though Canon had a better wide angle prime lens? Ken rockwell stated so in his blog..
    Canon’s 14mm f/2.8 L II is the best fixed 14mm lens I’ve ever used. It’s much better than Nikon’s fixed 14mm lens because this Canon lens has far less distortion, while the Nikon len is loaded with it.

  • Landscape Photo

    I don’t understand the ISO 6400 “to be noisy or not to be noisy” obsession. That’s an extreme value only good for occasional use “to save the day”. No professional photographer should make it as a habit and rely on such high sensitivity, but be in search for better light or use a tripod.

    Rather let somebody compare an ISO 200 raw image from D800 vs. upsampled D700, then we’ll see the real difference. Ken Rockwell will likely be one of the first to do this comparison.

  • Joe Fish

    Was Canon struck by the floods in Thailand?

  • Anonymous Maximus

    Chasseur d’Images says D800 will be below € 3000. This means it will be below $ 3000, because in Nikon world € used to equal $ in practice. That’s good news !

    Still the no-AA difference will be about multiple hundred $. Confirmation of the known…

    So D800E (without AA filter) will be in the range of $ 3000-3500. Right?

    • CR

      the new nikon 85mm lens is listed for 499usd in US and 529eur in Germany (both Amazon and Nikon).
      So NO EUR=USD on the numbers.
      sorry.

  • Zim

    I’ll wait and see if D400 will be announced. If the D800 is under $3,000 I might go for that but for now the D300s and D200 are working fine!

  • cdrross

    Maybe I am wrong, but wasn’t it just a couple of months ago that Nikon was on their high-horse exclaiming that they are beating all expectations and that the stock was going to go up proclaiming themselves as masters of the universe?
    Now they put this notice out like they didn’t have a clue only a few months ago that they were going to get clobbered by these very same losses?
    This is typical big business BS and misinformation.

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      Maybe you ought to try reading what Nikon actually published. Their estimates for their year-end results (year ends March 31) show them clearly beating last year, which was a good year for them.

      Moreover, “stock was going to go up” is not a phrase that Nikon ever uses (nor does any company giving forward information). They simply said that business was growing, profits were growing, and they were growing market share in a business where sales are flat overall globally. They’re still saying that DESPITE the fact that they had to rebuild all of the DSLR manufacturing plants in the last 11 months.

      You could have also looked at stock charts before you claimed BS, too. In 2009 Nikon’s stock was below 1000 yen. They had a very good year: it climbed to just over 2000 when the Japanese quake hit, then immediately fell to under 1500. It has since climbed back to just under 1900. In the three months that Nikon just reported earnings for, the stock rose slightly. It has since risen more, probably because the numbers for the quarter started leaking.

      So where is the BS and misinformation? Why, it’s in your post.

  • Abri

    Here in Mexico you get a D7000 for around 2,300 USD, 5D Mkii for around 4,200. We make a lot less money and our currency value is really low, so we get super high prices. Buying any of those cameras for about 1,000 USD less in the US is a really good deal no matter how much prices are rising.

  • peterb

    Does this imply that problems on the D300s and other lenses made at this location will not be repairable. I have a Nikon F w Photomic TN finder that could not be repaired after an earthquake destroyed the parts plant in Japan. I wound up getting it converted to a Nikon F Photomic FTN and is quite the collector’s piece (IMHO) because of the fine work done by Steven Gandy (I think I got that name right, I will look it up for anyone interested.) I suppose that it serves me right for not making enough money to jump ship onto the D400 when it comes out, or better still the D4 line.

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