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Nikon sales by product: past (2010) vs. estimated (2011)

Those are the "Sales by product" charts for Nikon's financial year that just ended and the estimated numbers for the next year (March 2010 vs March 2011):

Nikon sales by product: past (March, 2010) vs. estimated (March, 2011)

Update: the percentage graph could be misleading - here are the actual numbers (March 2010/March 2011):

I/L stays for Interchangeable Lenses, SLR-DSC is for SLR/DSLR and C-DSC stays for compact cameras.

This is the summary of estimation for the Imaging company for the next year (ending March 2011) - pay attention to the second bullet point:

  • Establishment of solid profit structure through strengthening procurement and production system to secure profit under even appreciating Yen.
  • Development acceleration of new generation digital cameras.
  • Enhancement of sales, servicing and brand value in the rapidly growing emerging markets.

Source (pdf file)

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  • James

    First!

    Intense, what could it mean?

    • Anonymous

      The NEX-7 sensor will power the D400.

  • mick

    Pretty meaningless really. Other than to say that Nikon doesn’t intend to grow and has no products that will “shake” the market in the next year. It’s going to be boring on this website for the foreseeable future.

    • http://www.kampus.ro Laurentiu Ilie

      Wrong!

      They expect to sell more DSLRs (SLR-DSC), even if the percentage is 40 instead of 41.

      Mr. Admin, you have to correct the post. Please, do it fast.

      How that?

      Overall they expect to sell more.

      Due to the fact that they expect to sell much more “I/L”, the percentage of DSLRs is dropping in the predicted total sales, but as a sales volume, actually they expect to sell more DSLRs.

      Thanks for your understanding.

      • rg

        +1

      • C Benson

        There will be more rebates and discounts on current DSLR. cameras for next year. I have feeling Nikon, will not be producing new cameras for the next fiscal year, do in part what’s going on in the world economy. I hope I am wrong but I have feeling Nikon is playing it safe for the next year.

  • Anonymous

    No, this is not meaningless – it tells us that we should expect aprox. the same amount on new DSLRs and lenses in the next 12 months.

    • mick

      That is pretty much what I said.

    • Mauricio

      He, it IS pretty much what he said. :P

      • Global Guy

        So will the sales of a D700x be worth the bumps due to D300s + D5000 + D3x + D3s. Sure hope so!

  • http://www.truphotos.com gnohz

    “Development acceleration” means something interesting :D

    • corpie

      “Development acceleration” in corporate speak means “yeah, we did screw up, to the point we can’t even deny it – but we will do better now, HONEST. just please, don’t dump our shares. okay?”. thats it.

  • zzddrr

    ■Establishment of solid profit structure through strengthening procurement and production system to secure profit under even appreciating Yen.
    >> “child/cheap” labour in China as it has been evidenced by the 100 macro

    ■Development acceleration of new generation digital cameras.
    >> Now this is bs. This means that they have nothing at the moment. They are trying to develop the skills to make their own fuc_in sensor and chips since sony is advancing and somebody shit in the paradise

    ■Enhancement of sales, servicing and brand value in the rapidly growing emerging markets.
    >> We know this one … “i am Ni -con”. Ok, let me tranaslate this. They will charge premium price for their crap.
    Has anyone received any survey from Nikon asking about their customer experience? My answer is no. THis takes at least 2-5yrs to rollout. I mean just look at their repair policies for lenses. Perhaps they are trying to become the “mass premium”.

    >>Emerging markets – Ok, that’s a cheap shot. They think they can make up the loss of sales (because they do not have new competitive products) in other places. Two problems: 1) If developed markets decline they decline because a) no money to buy new shit or b) others offer better products. 2) Now if a) happens then the developing markets will not have money to buy the crap. If b) is the case then most likely the very same shit will happen in the developing market because the people over there are not stupid.

    I think this is a bit blury. “WE WILL SPEED UP THE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT!” Dude, what the hell you’ve been doing during the last 3 yrs? In 2007 everyone knew that things are not going in the right direction. So, by saying the above means clearly that at this moment they have nothing ready.

    The reason why the above numbers make sense is because these companies from the same region are corrupt as hell! Yes, tehy will make sure that under the table business will be done and YOU the consumer will pay for this.

    • http://www.bythom.com Thom Hogan

      >> “child/cheap” labour in China as it has been evidenced by the 100 macro
      Not really. Nikon just bought into one of their SE Asian suppliers, and I expect them to do more of this. Essentially, they seem to intend to take out “middle man” costs wherever possible.

      >> This means that they have nothing at the moment.
      Right now the only product I see that’s slower than their usual development cycle is the D3000 replacement/supplement. And I believe there’s a reason for that. A statement today that they’ll speed up development would apply to future products. Personally, I have strong worries about that. The current cycles are basically: 4 years for top end (D1, D2, D3), 2 years for prosumer (D80, D90, D200, D300), and 1 year to 18 months for low end (D40x, D60, D3000). Having done high tech products before, those are already very tight cycles if you want to keep with state of the art in TECHNOLOGY. Things like mirrorless aren’t exactly “new technology,” they’re redeployment of current technology, and the current crop all show that this didn’t come without significant user issues.

      Personally, I’d not want Nikon to speed up development, but to get development right. Four years is perfectly fine for pro bodies, two years for consumer. But they have to be dead on right.

      > Has anyone received any survey from Nikon asking about their customer experience? My answer is no.
      Nikon has been doing N sample surveys for many years now. Given a new user population of 3 million a year, you’d only need to sample a couple of hundred to get useful results. Most N samples of the US population (Nielsen, etc.) are somewhere in the 2000 person out of 300 million. So there’s a pretty strong chance you didn’t get a survey ;~). I do take issue with the design of Nikon’s surveys. I don’t think they ask the right questions. But that’s another story.

      > Emerging markets – Ok, that’s a cheap shot. They think they can make up the loss of sales (because they do not have new competitive products) in other places.
      No, it’s not a cheap shot, it’s a realistic approach. Look, compact sales peaked many years ago in the US and Europe, so you can’t grow your Coolpix sales there. Many of us believe that DSLR sales peaked last year in the US and Europe, so how would you grow your DSLR sales there? It’s called “market saturation,” and curiously it appears that DSLR sales are saturating at about the same number that film SLR sales did (per household), which implies that there is a top limit to the number of DSLRs that can be sold in a market. When you see that you are approaching the top limit in a market, you find new markets in order to grow. If you look closely, Nikon has established new subsidiaries in Australia, India, Russia, and Mexico in the past couple of years. Previously, those markets had distributors. What Nikon is saying is look for more of the same (expansion of subsidiaries).

      > happens then the developing markets will not have money to buy the crap.
      Note that Nikon’s best selling Coolpix was the S220, a very low cost camera. And it sold well in those emerging markets. If you believe that the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are moving into the league of “developed” major economies, you want to be there with your brand early, even if it is in low end products. It’s sort of the Coke thing: grow with growth.

      > In 2007 everyone knew that things are not going in the right direction.
      Really? In 2007 Nikon introduced the D3 and D300, which turned around their high-end prospects against Canon. They also hit a new high in market share. Exactly how is that “going in the wrong direction”?

      Let me put things differently. If in 2011 Nikon introduces a D4 and D400 and they are as much a step forward from the current cameras as the D3 and D300 were, just exactly what direction do you think Nikon would be going?

      • Anonymous

        I think I know what zzddrr tried to point out with the cheap labour comment about China. No matter how we look at it but China does not have the same labour, environmental, and legal standards as Japan and/or Western countries. This gives cost advantages for companies like Nikon but at the end of the day the consumer and those who suffers from impact of bad chinese practices will pay the price.

        On the accellareted product development point, I have to disagree with you. Look, other lower segments are catching up with the top line products. So, if the pace keeps up then in 3-8 yrs Nikon finds itself in a situation where a mobile phone will be at par with the D6. (Of course I exagerated a bit the situation to illustrate the issue at hand)

        Again, Nikon is too slow no matter how we look at it.

        • Fredbare

          Environmental?
          Like the Kyoto agreement?
          Many developing countries are not following this reasoning because the US won’t either. Can’t blame the Chineese on this one.

          • Anonymous

            then in 50yrs the earth will burn out. Do you think that ignoring the environment does not have effects?

          • Anonymous

            Fredbare, there is one thing that developing countries are not following environment related treaties but believe me sooner or later many protectionist country or trading block will come up with a simple way of keeping out products from China. For example, they can ask them to use the same standards. Also, consumers are getting more sensitive about this issue. Did you know that for example in Canada they found in the blood of the polar bear chinese coal plants related chemicals? See, it is more complex and what happens in china affects other places. That is why I think sooner or later these countries will be forced to do something about it because simply they will be locked out of those markets.

        • ArtTwisted

          The physics of small sensors and cheap plastic lenses in mobile phones does not allow for high quality imaging, and will never allow for it. Cellphones have already hit the resolution limit of the lenses they use. Have you ever printed a cellphone image? I work at a print shop and in about 5 years of development they still cannot produce a acceptable 4×6 print, and this is using top of the line fuji frontier printers. Anything above a 2×3 looks bad, and this has been tested with the iphone, Motorola Droid, HTC droid, Blackberry bold and curve 1 and 2, and my nokia e71.

          • Anonymous

            ArtTwisted, I am not denying that cell phones are nowhere at the moment but let’s not underestimate how technology can evolve. What if somebody figures out a better way of capturing images and that’s not Nikon?

            Look, the human eye can capture crisp images and it is a fairly small device. What if technology copies that and such “eye” will appear in cell phones resulting in image quality that is at par with the human eye. What will happen with D6?

      • http://www.tutu.com Pat

        Thom Hogan rocks …

        Thanks for a so clear, realistic and balanced point of view M. Hogan.

        Certainly add a lot of quality to the comment section

  • Fredbare

    “Development acceleration of new generation digital cameras. ”

    If not a poor translation from the Japanese this should mean “Faster to market with new products”. Something most have been slating Nikon for. Nothing wrong with that.

  • anonymous

    “Nikon is expecting to sell slightly less DSLRs in the next 12 months (41% vs. 40%).”

    That’s not true. They may be expecting to sell 1% less DSLRs but they’re expecting to sell a lot more total, and the graph actually indicates a larger amount of DSLRs being sold. It may be less of the total percentage, but that doesn’t mean they’re selling less. Learn how to read a graph!

    • Richard

      Yes, [NR] admin correct this.

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        corrected, I added the actual numbers for better comparison

    • rg

      plus 1

  • Mauricio

    Having read reports like this before, I would call it nothing more than shareholder pandering. When a new product/initiative is considered to be game changing, you can read it on the wall.

    These are as vague as they come even for yearly reports. My experience tells me that when a company is THIS vague, either a storm is brewing or they are hiding something… generally bad or at best, lame.

    Now since they are not allowed to play ‘the secretive game’ with shareholders, this means that most changes if any are happening behind the scenes such as the moving production out of Japan to save money.

    I had shares in many companies and the ones that are doing well, tend to have better, more specific overall estimates. Not good.

    • mick

      You nailed it. I read this stuff all the time myself and this kind of vagueness is a BAD sign. Likewise, there is no significant growth in the total revenue base (i.e., only a few percentage points of aggregate growth). This is not promising for Nikon. I was personally hoping for much more from them this year.

  • Fredbare

    “Enhancement of sales, servicing and brand value in the rapidly growing emerging markets”
    Smart move. China is probably the biggest economy now on the planet. India is also on the up. Nikon will be giving preference to what the ‘Far East’ want than the US as these will be the more affluent markets in the future.

  • JorPet

    This is the standard forward looking assessment that Nikon does every quarter. Nothing special or sinister in the chart. Go back to each quarterly report and you will find their future estimated revenue graph.

    They do intend to grow this part of the business as you can see that the gross Yen amount is greater for next year. It also shows how lens will become a larger portion of their total revenue next year as new DSLR owners purchase additional lenses. No great surprise there.

  • taufan

    I guess D4000 is not camera between D3000 and D5000. But it’s Full frame camera with no motor on the body or full frame for entry level … :)

  • taufan

    sorry, … wrong room ….

  • Timo

    The graph is totally misinterpreted!

    The graph does not say anything about the number of items being sold in each category.
    There are only two things the graph tells us:
    1) Nikon expects the amount of sales or turnover to grow.
    2) It shows each category’s share of that amount of sales.

    How the growth in the amount of sales for one category – e.g. interchangeable lenses – will be achieved, is not said! It can be a) growth in the number of items sold b) more efficient (cheaper) production or c) higher prices, etc.

    Asides: Even if the share of DSLR sales drops from 41% to 40%, the sales amount is increasing since the total sales is increasing. You can also see that if you look at the lines that connect the two bars.

    From that graph we don’t even know whether the profit for Nikon will increase or decrease. It’s just the sales amount. (Of course, reasonable management will aim to increase profit to create shareholder value.)

    Cheers,

    Timo

    • TheincredibleUlk

      Finally someone gets it :D i heard that reading and thinking at the same time is an overrated virtue.
      the Increase is due to inflation and lenses? Makes me wonder whats ahead. Though eg the new 24 is great it ain’t the moneymaker.

  • Anonymous

    Sorry but the interpretation of the chart is plainly wrong. Even more it contradicts what you can see very obviously in the chart. Proof? Take the “compact camera” section: (1) Comments speaks of “amount”, chart y-axis is on Yen which is revenue, not amount in the sense of units. (2) Comment says “25% vs. 25%”. So what? Isn’t the right bar larger than the left one? So maybe here is 25% < 25%? Or maybe even 41% < 40%? Feel free to think again. By the way, what about shipment volumes or market growth, too? This would give a better picture.

  • D700 (feels like F3)

    Nikon does, what any company facing financially challenges do: they search for ways to limit cost while trying to find new sales opportunities. It does nto mean, that you need new offerings, but a strong purchasing dept and marketing.

    The one and only conclusion you can obtain here is the market segmentation i.e. the percentages provided in the report. It says: our product startegy as such remains unchanged.

  • Temple

    “SLR-DSC stays for SLR/DSLR – Nikon is expecting to sell slightly less DSLRs in the next 12 months (41% vs. 40%).” that mean no new DSLR in Next 12 month. :-(

  • BORING

    BORING
    STOP IT

  • Anonymous

    This just tells me that Nikon will continue to operate in the market at pretty much the same levels and clearly in order to do that they need to remain competitive in terms of product and service. This means a steady and continued stream of new products which they clearly see as driving a small increased demand. I wouldn’t however expect to see anything else from an official statement to the market so in light of not accompanying this with any specific product announcements we have to assume that Nikon have stuff in the pipeline which will help them achieve such growth.

  • Twoomy

    Admin — what happened to the like/dislike voting buttons? You’ve gone all Facebook on us, only allowing us to like things now. Well I’m clicking the imaginary [Dislike] for this entry and interpretive comments. :)

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I mention that yesterday – the old like/dislike button was not reliable because there were several ways somebody could vote multiple times. This is not possible with the current like button, unless you have multiple fb accounts. The feedback will be the same, it is just different way to measure: more/less likes vs. like/dislike. Also, only a fraction of 1% of the total number of readers vote.

  • longtimenikonshooter

    D700 are out of stock at B&H and Amazon.

    • The visible woman

      What about the D900 ? In stock ?

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/sinnfreiermensch Jesus

        there wont be any d900
        first, there will be a d800 or d700s/d700x

        • Anonymous

          I don’t care the name as long as it has got a (20+) mp sensor, D700 size, acceptable IQ and a sensible price. It could be called D8937 as well :)

          • ArtTwisted

            I second this, although im in no rush.

          • longtimenikonshooter

            it’s only 16MP with current ISO limits. Nikon doesn’t want to give you their D3s sensor just yet.

  • rs

    Things i wish Nikon would do.
    Get a standard for naming. Numbers everywhere all over the place. Make your beginner SLR a D3000 then update it to a D3010 then D3020 and so on. You have D1 D2 then sub that would be 2? numbers and next 3? numbers etc. Something instead of jumping all over the place. How about a D400dx and a D400fx

    Make 3 different named fx models. pro, (D3) semi (D700) and advanced(?).

    Get away from Sony.

    Make some F4 lenses that are similar to the F2.8.

  • zzddrr

    I did not want to offend anyone with my post but I feel that the statements were too blury from Nikon. I see daily basis just way too many bs like the above.

    One thing for sure, Nikon is not a champion when it comes to communication!

  • Zoetmb

    Just about everyone is misinterpreting the charts and graphs. The first graph shows Nikon’s distribution of income based upon product line. It says that for the 2011 fiscal year, 40% of Nikon’s Imaging Division sales revenue will come from DSLRs and 27% will come from lenses, etc. The increase in percentage for lenses makes sense because as the DSLR market matures, they will sell fewer bodies, but more lenses to existing owners. In a report like this, if Nikon sells 10 $100 P&S cameras for every $1000 DSLR, they would have an equal percentage.

    The figures “market scale” is a projection of industry sales. The 10.880 million DSLR units are coming from CIPA shipped units (actually 10.885,369) from April 2009 to March 2010 and the 12 million units is Nikon’s own projection of industry units from April 2010 to March 2011. That compares to Nikon DSLR unit sales of 3.67 million units (33.7% market share) in fiscal 2010 and a projected 4.2 million units (35% market share) in fiscal 2011.

    For the first 3 months of the calendar year (which is the last three months of Nikon’s fiscal year), industry DSLR unit sales are up 77%, compact units sales are up 43% and lens unit sales are up 71% as compared to 2009, but 2009 was a notoriously bad year.

    What i don’t understand is how Nikon can expect to gain market share for DSLRs when there is increasing competition from the m4/3 and cameras like the new Sony. And Nikon always makes their numbers because like Apple, they always project low, in Nikon’s case so they don’t “lose face.”

    Nikon sold 3.55 million DSLRs in fiscal 2010 and is projecting 1.9 million units from April-September 2010 and 2.3 million units from October 2010 to March 2011. That indicates to me that we’re going to see major product launches of low to mid line bodies in late September.

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