I think you might be right on having reached the ISO limit for the bayer sensor. The idea of using a beam splitter – either one large one or microsplitters on chip, would be a way to get round the problem.

When the black wafer stuff was discovered the verdict was that it would boost IR performance greatly but do rather little for visible light. It was however compatible with existing processing techniques.

So you might be right that the ‘s’ upgrade is due to using black wafers. There may be an additional gain to come from using a non-bayer sensor. There may be gain to be found with better heat control. But its going to be getting harder.

Sony cannot tread on Nikon in any case since Nikon sells a heck of a lot more cameras than Sony and without them their fab is not really viable.

And on top of that, Nikon has the option of walking while the Sony camera company does not.

So not having their own fab is not something that should worry Nikon.

Losing Nikon would be a major loss of face for Sony, it just isn’t going to happen. Sony will always be first out of the gate with the new silicon as they have to build a market. Nikon will always be the last out because they place the highest value on field testing and perfecting the handling before going to market.

If you want the latest features in a camera that was slapped together by engineers in a hurry then go for the Canon.

The D3s and D300s are 12MP bodies. There certainly can’t be anything like them coming out for another 12 months. But there could be replacements with higher resolution. If the D4/D400 launch was due spring 2010 it would still make perfect sense to refresh the D3 and D300.

The D3 and D300 are built in different factories, so it is quite possible to update both at the same time. But the D700 is built in the same factory as the D300 so its not possible to update both at the same time.

My guess is that the next announcement we will see will be for the D700s followed by the D4/D400 launch. We might well see a D90s as well. While the D90 already has video, it does not have the 1080p video or the D300 autofocus system. Plenty of room there for an upgrade – if there are other goodies coming for the top end.

I don’t think that the EVIL launch will affect the DSLR launch at all. The first generation bodies are going to be sold to a different market.

But the lenses will be the limiting factor before we get to that point.

I am not sure that the EVIL cameras will have the splitter you suggest, the Nikon sensor with the on-chip splitter looks like a better scheme to me.

If you look at the improvements Nikon has made in ISO performance, the EVIL lineup might well be rather special. The FX format will always offer better low light performance, but black wafers and other improvements might well mean that the first generation EVIL bodies are on a par with the D3 ISO wise, using lenses that are about a third the weight.

So if you use a decent photo editor and down res a 24MP photo to 12MP the result should be as good or better noise wise as a 12MP native photo.

But the D3x is two stops worse than the D3, not just one. So the tradeoff is significant. Which is why I think that the D3x would be a higher priority for an upgrade in ISO performance than the D3 was if there was a D4 ready for launch with the specs described any time soon.

The other aspect to the equation is that it takes more time to pull more pixel data off the chip. So for the sports photographer a D3s might well remain a preferred choice over a 24MPs D4.

I can’t see a logic for Nikon selling three flagship models, a 12MP, 18MP and 24MP. So either the D3s or D3x would have to go if the D4 launched with these specs. I would think it much more likely that they would go back to the fab and get a mask set made up for a 24MP sensor using the same technology. A 24MP D4 that ‘only’ gave one ISO stop improvement over the D3s would still be an amazing achievement and be the preferred body for most photographers. In that scenario the recent upgrade to the D3s makes perfect sense as the D3s would not go away any time soon. I would expect it to stay for another couple of years until a higher speed D4s appears.

The launch of the D3s puts paid to the launch of a D4 with 18MP or less for at least a year in my view. It does not preclude a replacement for the D3x.

If the 18MP sensor is real it would be much more logical to use it as the starter sensor for a D800 than as the sensor for the D4. The flagship has to be the best camera on the market when it launches.

And doesn’t the D300 series is updated the same year as the D3 series?
D300 + D3; D300s + D3s and likely D400 + D4? unless of course Nikon decides to change its product release cycle.

Hmm, maybe next year will be a minor update to the D90 (improvements in video and maybe full manual?), a D700s (adding video + D3s sensor) and the rest update will be those prime lenses?

This thought seems to be supported by the good folks at DxOmark, here: http://dxomark.com/index.php/eng/Insights/More-pixels-offsets-noise! No?

Cheers!