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Nikon D700 replacement timeframe

This one is coming from nikonistas.com (Google translation) - this is something like a Q&A session with Carlos Ormazabal, Nikon Product Manager for Spain, Andorra and Portugal (updated translation):

"UserGood afternoon, you know what I’m going to ask, but I have to ask it anyway. Should I buy a D700 or is the X, S, or D800 coming? Thank you very much.

CarlosOf course I’m going to Answer.

You only have to look at Nikon’s timing… it is infallible. 2 years ago, they announced the D300 and D3… when the entire world expected the D3x. Later the D3x.

So, what would the logical continuation be after the D300s and the D3s came?

Well then. When? Count the months. How much later was the D700 after the D3? About 8 or 9 months after the announcement. So if you follow, you won’t have to wait until after summer 2010 approximately.

Now, this is only conjecture… with fundamentals, as Arguiñano (This, I believe, is a reference to a famous Spanish chef who has a TV show, like Bobby Flay, or someone like that. He recommends using the basic fundamentals when cooking. I saw him in something once a few years back. Anyway, I continue) directs, but still conjecture.

On the other hand, we can’t forget that the D800 has been announced in rumors for many months. It is not likely that Nikon will commit the same error as Cannon and produce a camera which ill be eaten alive by the MkIII’s 22MPs.

So, if you’re willing to wait for the baby D3S, count 6 to 8 months."

If I am understanding this correctly: 6-8 months before the D700 replacement is introduced.

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  • shivas

    seems reasonable and rationale. . .they might announce it this year if they aim to kill sales, but I suspect they won’t and let people ohh and ahhh with the D3s and D300s combo’s. . .

  • http://www.patrickmeredith.com Patrick

    Been waiting for a small body D3s for some time now…

    wasn’t it patrick henry who said, “give me 1080 or give me death”???

    don’t drop the ball Nikon!!!!!!!

    • low

      how long? the d3S was just introduced?????

      • Anonymous

        lol +1 :))))))))))

      • M!

        lol +2
        get real on a small body D3S. :rolleyes:
        I am still waiting for my REAL body D3S to arrive.

        • Patrick

          lol? seriously? Are you guys 12?
          I’ve been waiting for a small body with good high ISO capabilities and video ever since the D90 was introduced. The D3s was the first step in the right direction, but, like I said above, I’m waiting for a smaller body. LOL!!!!111

  • JR

    Why not ask about a baby D3x? thats what most people want.

    • Anonymous

      and call it D3s-babe

    • M!

      and the point of a baby D3X is to piss off the pros who paid $8k last year?
      i am glad Nikon does not do this sort of marketing.
      the Pro camera should stay Top of the Line for at least 1 year.

      • El Aura

        That year is up in few weeks (if you count shipping).

    • http://www.stark-arts.com Stark-Arts.com

      because nikon has put themselves in a corner with 4 12mp cameras and one 24 that didn’t sell at all. If they were to come out with a d700x lets say what would it cost? in order to maintain reason in nikons pricing structure it would have to be somewhere between 4 and 5 grand unless the d3x drops a ton in price. Otherwise they would have to come with a D3xII in order to get anyone to shell out the cash…

  • Aaron

    JR: not everyone though – I’d buy a d700s before a d700x. I really don’t need more pixels, but better hi-isos would be terriffic

  • PHB

    I don’t think that it is useful to use the D3/D700 as a guide here.

    The D700s is a no-brainer to come out as soon as they make the next maufacturing run of D700 bodies. There will be a D700s whether or not there is a D700x or a D800. They have a new technology (probably microlens) that allows them to push the ISO response of existing sensors by one full stop without huge expense. Putting that sensor on the D700 is a no brainer, as is adding the faster CPU.

    But the sensor that Nikon most needs an ISO boost for isn’t the 12MP DX or FX sensor, its the 24MP sensor. So I remain skeptical that a D700x will ever arrive unless it is for the sole purpose of using up unused D3x sensors after they have the process right. Thoe only thing tht the D3x timing tells us is that Nikon was desperate to get a camera out at the time.

    So I would suggest that the next Nikon DSLR launch will be the D4/D400, not the D700x. They have had the 24MP sensor long enough to do a die shrink on it and produce a DX version. Nobody has a 24MP crop sensor at this point but there is certainly demand there and the recent lenses are up to the task.

    The pattern to Nikon launches is that they frequently produce an interim, life extender model for an older body and then replace it shortly after when they have fully integrated the resolution advance into their other improvements. D3x is a stopgap model as far as I am concerned.

    The more interesting question is likely to be what Nikon does in the non-SLR space. In particular what they are going to do to compete with the Leica and Panasonic cameras. A Nikon rangefinder body that takes F-Mount lenses through an adapter would have a huge number of takers.

    • http://micahmedia.com Micah

      Die shrinks don’t happen the way you describe for sensors. Light is “analogue” and works differently. We likely will see a 24mp small sensor at some point, but not for a couple years, and it won’t be closely related to existing sensors.

      You can’t just shrink a sensor and have it work, just like you can’t just shrink a lens and have it work. If this doesn’t make sense, first think about the micro lenses. They are just that–lenses. Simple, single element ones, but still…lenses. Light has consistent properties when going through a consistently sized translucent material with a given density, geometry, and dimensions. Lets just call it a lens element.

      When you simply change the scale of a lens element, you change it’s ability to refract light. It changes in a predictable way, but the math is more complex than one to one.

      That one thing alone tells you how complex it is. Take into account that light also behaves differently on different scales, even without micro lenses, and you should see that a simple “die shrink” is not simple. So much will change about the whole sensor that it could not be said to simple have been “shrunk”.

      Better example: shrink your favorite car engine to half it’s displacement. Will it still have half the horsepower? Even tuned to have at least half the horsepower, it will not have not have the same power band, or half the torque. It can’t have double the compression ratio–gasoline’s physical properties don’t change because you change the engine.

      Just like light doesn’t change because you change the sensor.

      • PHB

        A ‘die shrink’ is something you do in the computer. Since a whole new set of masks is going to be required, it is really not an issue to make modifications in the process. Intel makes minor changes when it does what it calls a ‘die shrink’ as part of its tick-tock model.

        The real importance of a die shrink is that you start off debugging your production line with a product that is relatively well understood to start with.

        Some features will not work at a smaller scale. The microlenses may have to be completely redesigned. You may even have to redesign the layout of the sensor cell itself. But that is only a small part of the design of a sensor, the much larger part of the engineering effort goes into laying out the analog and digital support circuitry.

        There are already plenty of sensors with much finer resolution than a 24MP DX sensor would have. The engineering work has already been done on the optical side of the sensor design. The only new thing here would be putting so many on the one chip. But they do have to put 24 on a DX chip before they can expect to get 48 on an FX chip and dethrone Hasseblad.

    • M!

      @PHB, i think you are totally mistaken.
      How so is the D3X be a stopgap model?? It’s nikon’s first FX camera with over 20MP. and it is the top of the line model, not something ‘stopgap’ as you call.
      as well, your idea of a 24MP on a DX sensor is absurd for 2009. if any manufacturers can pack that many sensor pixels in a DX frame with proper quality, there would already be marketed.
      how much are they going to price a 24MP DX camera without hurting their FX range?

      • PHB

        Two things, the ISO performance and the price. The D3s only manages ISO 1600 while the D300 managed 3200 for about the same sensor pitch. Now the D300s is making 6400. Something not right there.

        I think there is a production issue there and that is the reason for the ‘don’t but this’ price.

        I would expect the priority to be fixing the performance issue on the D3x before coming out with a D700x. And since there is now a D3, D3s and D3x, the next pro level camera really needs a new identifier.

    • Mark

      PHB, I think you make a number of solid points but I do think there is a strong possibility that Nikon will come out with something in the D700 range of their DSLR cameras. There is a perception that Canon and Sony are hurting them in the lower price full frame (FX) sensor line. I can not help but think that Nikon can come out with a 16MP or 18MP D800(?) and sell it for between $2800 to $2999. Then keep the D700 and keep selling it at around $2450 or drop the price a little to help keep some people from jumping to Sony or Canon.

      • PHB

        That might have been a good plan, but I don’t think it is very likely to happen.

        Back when we were at 6MP then every extra pixel made a difference. Most people take 6×4 photos most of the time, 6MP is fine. But most people would like to get an 8×6, or even a 10×8. At that time a 30% increase in pixels made a big difference.

        I recently took a family photo with my D300, made some 20″ prints from it without any sign of resolution issues. I don’t think a 30% increase in pixels is going to make anyone switch, any more than a third of an ISO stop would make people upgrade.

        I think that it is clear that Nikon has decided that from now on it will upgrade resolution by doubling the previous maximum. A 16MP camera might make sense now, but it would not have a very long shelf life. It is pretty clear that we will see an upgrade to the D3x with the higher ISO resolution technology recently deployed on the D300s the next time they are making the D3x sensor. I would put that announcement no earlier than 3 months and no later than 6. And I would expect a D700 equivalent about 6-9 months on from then.

        So an 18MP D700x would have a lifespan of only 9-15 months.

        If Nikon feel pressure from Canon, the obvious response is to drop the price of the D700. It is currently $2328 at Amazon. The D300s is $1600. Thats almost $750 more for a camera that should not cost a lot more to build at this point. The sensor yield should be up to 90%.

        The D3x is a different issue, I think that they were having yield issues when that came out and were forced to price accordingly. If your base yield is 30% and you make your sensor twice as big, your yield will be less than 9%. So your good chips per wafer will cost at least six times as much, So I can actually believe Sony were charging $2000 a sensor or more.

  • NikoDoby

    He also says that the likely hood that Nikon introduces a pro level DX camera is very low. Future DX development will likely be for D90 and below with the D300S at the top for now. Nikon is not working on NX “like” software with video editing capabilities.

    He “assumes” Nikon will bring out a “baby D3S” . He says not to believe the rumors of a higher MP D800. Nikon wouldn’t bring out a higher MP camera than the D3S. The 6 to 8 months time frame is what he says it took for the D700 to arrive after the D3 announcement. He’s “guessing” that a “baby D3S” will likely follow the same pattern.

    He also talks about future firmware update to D300S to give it full manual video mode like the D3S! He defends 720 HD because he says that’s what most TV and Youtube, Vimeo use. Only BluRay is full 1080. He says 1080 files are just too big to handle and work with for most people. He feels that 1080 is pure marketing for now and that video is still second to photography. Eventually,though, he thinks Nikon will bring out 1080 video .

    • Jim

      nikodoby – are you interpreting the crappy translation, or are you fluent in Spanish?

      • Nikodoby

        I am multilingual and my summary comes from what Carlos Ormazabal wrote. I honestly think we are reading too much into the 8-9/ 6-8 months thing. He was referring to the time between the D3 to D700 to D3S announcements and was just kinda “throwing it out there” as a reference. (Actually the time between the D700 and D3S was over a year wasn’t it? July08 to Oct09) His choice of calling the “next” D700 a “baby D3S” is also meant in a lighthearted kind of way.

        The only “concrete” thing I get from his words is that the next D700 will not have better specs than the D3S. But even that seems to be “just” his opinion.

    • KT

      If it’s true that Nikon will release a baby D3s this coming summer, (6-8 months after the release of the current D3s), how come we haven’t seen a baby D3x last summer??? After all, the D3x was released almost this time last year

      • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

        Think it’s due to the nature of the “upgrade”
        i.e.
        s = minor
        x = major (inc sensor)

        • NikoDoby

          So what was the D2XS then? a major minor update?

          • http://blackbeardben.smugmug.com Blackbeard Ben

            The D2Xs was a minor update to the D2X. The D2X itself was the high resolution flagship model to compliment the D2H (which was updated with the D2Hs), just as the D3X compliments the D3 (and now D3s).

            It’s been the same since Nikon started the affordable DSLR market with the D1. The D1 had some major issues concerning the user interface and image quality (banding and no defined color space leading to a “magenta cast” issue). The D1H replaced it (fixing those issues), and the D1X was released as Nikon’s first high resolution body at the same time.

            Now, Nikon clearly hasn’t been entirely consistent with their naming. One would have expected the D3 to be called the D3H based on its predecessor the D2H.

            Maybe Nikon was hoping it could come out with an even faster camera, or (more likely I think) they decided that the ‘H’ designation was a bad idea in the first place. I’m sure if Nikon had thought it up at the time, the D1H would have actually been named the D1s. The ‘s’ designation wasn’t used (besides its film use) until the D2Hs – which itself was an update to the D2H in much the same way the D1H was to the D1.

          • NikoDoby

            I know blackbeard ben. I’m well aware of Nikon’s model history. I was just saying that we really can’t assume that every Nikon model will have an “S” or “X” added to it.

            There never was a Nikon D2 like there was a D1 and D3.
            Nikon just went from the D1X to a D2H before a D2X. I think we could see a D3H before anything else in the near future.

          • NikoDoby

            I forgot to also mention that the whole “S” designation is used by other manufacturers, not just Nikon. Look at the recent Sigma DP1(S) as an example.

          • http://blackbeardben.smugmug.com Blackbeard Ben

            Yes, Nikon went straight to the D2H before it had the D2X. It also went straight to the D1 without a D1X initially, and straight to the D3 without a D3X initially. It’s the way Nikon has decided to operate – release its high speed, low resolution photojournalist camera a year or so before it comes out with a high resolution version of the same body.

            There is and will be no D3H, because the D3 already is the D3H. Based on Nikon’s historic pro digital body series release timeline (you can see this on Wikipedia), a D4 is due out around the third quarter of 2011 – and there certainly won’t be a D3H replacement for the D3s somewhere in that two year period.

            I’m not the only one to come to this conclusion. Check out Thom Hogan’s prediction – it’s exactly the same concerning the D4. He even went so far as to predict the D3s when this article came out this summer, although he underestimated the amount of changes it underwent.

          • http://blackbeardben.smugmug.com Blackbeard Ben

            If you’re wondering how I made my guess as to when the D4 will come out – It’s because it’s been four years from one generation pro body to the next since the D1 started it all.

            Within each generation there has been a bit more variation, as Nikon has fixed any nagging deficiencies in each camera by coming out with a revised model.

    • PHB

      No, he is saying no DX sensor in a big D3 type body, which is really not news at all since the main reason to choose DX over FX is to minimize weight. The D300 and D700 are pro bodies, they are not flagship bodies.

      There may be a few thousand bird shooters who want a DX bodied D3 to stick on their 600mm tele. Thats probably not enough of a market. And the D3x has that market covered in any case.

      Given the short span from the D3 to the D3x, I don’t think the flagship production line would have time to turn out a DX sensor D3 in any case.

      • Nikodoby

        When I said no DX “pro” body I was referring to the build quality of the D2/D3 not “pro” as in the D300/S marketing.

  • shivas

    PEOPLE,
    The D700 won’t have 1080p, that would COMPLETELY skew sales away from a D3s sales potential!

    The D3x update (D3xs??) might have it, and THAT would trickle down, but I see 1080p as something that’ll stay out of the “lower” line for awhile and get introduced from the top.

    • Weston

      or 1080p will debut on the D90 replacement, since it was the first DSLR to have D-movie

      • rhlpetrus

        You forgot that there will be a d400 first.

  • Alex

    I just got the D700, so I will pass on the D800 and wait for the D900, it may have a chance to be released before I die.

  • zzddrr

    Stupid Nikon or we shall call it simply 12MP.

    It seems like Nikon cannot make a camera that is more than 12MP. The D3x was an error. Somebody in the factory screw up the sensors :-)

    I don’t think a D700s will be a success. Again, Nikon is messing exactly with its most loyal base who actually getting sick and tired with all the 12MP. I think many of them will not wait another 6-8 months.

    • Anonymous

      The most loyal base being those bitching and whining whenever they don’t get the toy they wanted for christmas? Yeah, right.

      • Tony

        +1000000

      • zzddrr

        The most loyal base, well those who haven’t sold their lenses since last year just because Nikon hasn’t come out with an affordable higher than 12MP DSLR. Yes, they are kind of upset but I do not assume that you would need more resolution. Probably you were happy with 2MP.

        Tony and the smart Anonymous, go back into your room and play a bit with your $200 sigma glasses at 12MP. And no TV tonight!!! :-)

        By the way, what did you try to say we already do not know?

        • Jim

          -1

          give me high iso over high MP. some want high iso, some want high MP.

          • zzddrr

            you already have 9 models. D2x, D2xs, D3, D3s, D700, D300, D300s, D90, and D5000. All of them at fuckin’ 12MP

            Now what else do you want? Hmmm? But there is only one camera Nikon makes that is more then 12MP and that one is 8k. So go back and kiss Nikon’s butt for more 12MP crap.

            Think about this, since Sep 2004 Nikon released the first 12MP DSLR and since then it released only 1 that was more than 12MP. Dude, we are talking about a 5 years product cycle. It’s been 5 years they are milking the same 12MP and in the meantime if others ask for something else, smart people like yourself determine that I do not need more than 12MP. This arrogance is my problem with you and with Nikon.

            I accept that you your are satisfied with the 12MP. I am happy for you, but we are different and I have different needs.

        • M!

          @zzddrr
          if the D3X is not ‘affordable’ for a photographer, it is not their targeted audience.

          • zzddrr

            M! It did not take a rocket scientist to figure it out. But let me throw you a curvball since you are that smart.

            Tell me, how many manufacturers compete in the D3x segment? DSLR over 23MP

            If the number is more than two (Canon does not have larger than 23MP) than we cannot call that monopolistic market. Now tell me if you do not really have competitor how do we call that? Monopolism. As we know under these circumstances the only one can charge whatever pretty much it wants.

            So who is the target again?

            So don’t come with the bs to me that Nikon really targeted a specific niche. They fuckin’ charged as much as they could taking adavantage of their loyal base. So stop the nonsense. No competition = high prices and D3x is a clear example.

        • rhodium

          Keep in mind that more than half of those buying the 5D II (archetypal “affordable” high MP camera) are getting it just so that they can show off their 21 MP toy, even though almost all of their shots end up unprinted anyway and just hog hard-disk space. Even those that they do print are simply printed at 8 x 10″ or 8 x 12″ – you can achieve high quality (~300 dpi) prints at those sizes with an 8 MP file.

          If you are whining and bitching about Nikon sucking because they can’t release anything higher than 12 MP (which, by the way, they can – the D3X, in fact, has one of the highest IQ of all DSLRs in the market now, rivaling MF backs), then ask yourself: do you really need those megapixels? How often are you going to print your shots? And how big?

          12 MP is more than enough for most purposes. Besides, by keeping their sensor to 12 MP, Nikon has managed to squeeze out every last drop of ISO performance from the sensor. Compare the current samples from the D3s to the samples from the 1D IV and you’ll see – the 1D IV is at least one stop behind the D3s in terms of ISO performance. The high ISO settings on the 1D IV are merely there for marketing, just like the 16 MP.

          I am glad that Nikon didn’t play along with Canon in the megapixel game – they focused on pixel quality rather than pixel quantity.

          • Mark

            rhodium,

            I agree about Nikon provides us quality per pixel and I am interested in a D700 but must confess that I would like a few extra quality pixels for my large prints. I am now spoiled since I made the big leap and got a Phase One with the 16MP back (square format). So now I find that if I am making another big investment that I can wait a little for the possible new D700/D800.

          • zzddrr

            1DiV and D3s were made for Stevie Wonder and for the Batman so they can see in the dark.

    • low

      whos the most loyal base? the d700 isnt even THAT old??

      • zzddrr

        low:

        The most loyal base does not necessarily mean D700 owners. I know somebody who has Nikon for over 30yrs and his current camera is an FM-2. He printed and compared images and for the style and subject he wants he said 12MP is not enough. He is about to switch to digital. He bought a kickass computer to have the juice but refuses to shell out 8k for the D3x. Now he is looking at the A850. I think he can be called part of the loyal base….don’t you think?

        • low

          you bring up some valid points. the d3x is a bit of a stretch, but for whats its worth and cost…it is an available option, now.

          12MP is not the be all, end all. but a d700s will make very good sense to keep the consumer trend going.

          going from film (nikon) to a sony or whatever 20+ MP camera i find an even more difficult move to do for nikon loyalists like your buddy. if by your rationale, the most loyal are the ones who would not go this way, simply because of parting away lenses they know and love. those would absolutely take their lenses to their grave.

          • zzddrr

            That’s exactly the point. He loves his lenses which is understandable. (He has quite few of them). He does not care about video hence the “S” versions don’t fly for him. He want’s the image quality at high res. Unfortunately it is very costly at Nikonland so he started to look at other options 6 months after the D3x. He said that Nikon does not value buyers like him.

            He does have valid points. He joked that if he’d buy the D3x his wife would kick him out of the house. I told him that perhaps he should take a second look at the D3x … maybe he’ll be better off :-)

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Why do you say someone screwed up the sensors ?
      I was of the opinion that the D3x was a good camera. Obviously not the ISO preformance of the D3 – but they’re different creatures.

  • Adomas

    Ya toże nye panyau nichyevo, very bad english is used in this translation, but obviously it was machine-translated.
    Do not swear so much, my friend :)

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Anybody got a better translation? (I deleted the previous two posts)

      • NikoDoby

        I gave a summary up above

      • Alex

        I can translate from French to English for free.
        My wife speek 5 other languages, but I think she’ll charge you for the translation :o)

  • David C

    The D800 can wait till Jan or a bit later, I’m not lined up to upgrade my D300 for another year at the earliest anyway (and more likely longer :-( ).

    What I really want to see before Christmas is a P6000 replacement that has:
    1) Has a larger sensor for better high ISO performance
    2) Lowers the pixel count (ala Canon G11) to achieve better ISO (or what would be ideal is both – a larger sensor lowered to 10MP – I would even be happy going to 6 MP).
    3) Better performance in RAW (heard P6000 is a dog performance wise – and why not make hte RAW true NEF this time for good measure)!!
    4) A 720P move mode (don’t need anything fancy or super high quality as it will just be for home movies, I just don’t want to have to carry an extra device) whose format can easily be brought into iMovie.

  • Stephen

    Here’s my best translation. I speak Mexican, so my Spanish is a bit rusty (All you Spanish speakers know what I mean).

    You know what I’m going to ask, but I have to ask it anyway. Should I buy a D700 or is the X, S, or D800 coming?

    Of course I’m going to Answer.

    You only have to look at Nikon’s timing… it is infallible. 2 years ago, they announced the D300 and D3… when the entire world expected the D3x. Later the D3x.

    So, what would the logical continuation be after the D300s and the D3s came?

    Well then. When? Count the months. How much later was the D700 after the D3? About 8 or 9 months after the announcement. So if you follow, you won’t have to wait until after summer 2010 approximately.

    Now, this is only conjecture… with fundamentals, as Arguiñano (This, I believe, is a reference to a famous Spanish chef who has a TV show, like Bobby Flay, or someone like that. He recommends using the basic fundamentals when cooking. I saw him in something once a few years back. Anyway, I continue) directs, but still conjecture.

    On the other hand, we can’t forget that the D800 has been announced in rumors for many months. It is not likely that Nikon will commit the same error as Cannon and produce a camera which ill be eaten alive by the MkIII’s 22MPs.

    So, if you’re willing to wait for the baby D3S, count 6 to 8 months.

    That’s a pretty accurate translation, I think. It’s been a few years since I worked as a translator. Anyway, you could have probably gotten this out of the google translation, but now it’s clearer.

    • Stephen

      Sorry, the last line is

      Now do you see it?

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Thanks – I updated the post with your translation.

      • Stephen

        Sorry, I looked back and missed a line

        after this

        On the other hand, we can’t forget that the D800 has been announced in rumors for many months. It is not likely that Nikon will commit the same error as Cannon and produce a camera which ill be eaten alive by the MkIII’s 22MPs.

        There need to be this

        So, a D700x is also to be expected.

        Please update that as it shows that he doesn’t know one way or the other.

        • Anonymous

          Admin, I speak Spanish, and he’s not referring to the MkIII eating the new release alive. I’m pretty sure he’s saying Nikon won’t make the same mistake canon did in releasing the 5DII that outspecs their flagship 1DsIII in MP. In other words, they won’t release a D800 with more megapixels than the D3x has. This makes sense to me–I’ve had my doubts about a 32 or 35 MP D800.

          I’d update the post to say:
          It’s unlikely that Nikon will commit the same error Canon did in releasing a camera that “ate itself” like the 22MB MkIII. I’d also not expect a D700x.

          • Jon Paul

            Sorry, that last post was me. I didn’t mean to post anonymously.

          • Jon Paul

            Sorry, I just noticed another error in Stephen’s translation (which is quite good, Stephen). This goes in the same paragraph as the post I just put up, just before “It’s unlikely…”:
            On the other hand, you should just forget about the D800 that was announced in the rumors months ago.

            Stephen is making it sound like he’s confirming the rumors, when really he’s blasting them with the next sentence (why offer something that beats your flagship)? Not that Nikon hasn’t done that in the past, though…

          • Stephen

            Yeah, I haven’t spent a lot of time in Spain, so some of the idiomatic issues fail me, and that sentence was full of them. That and the fact that my two year-old was having a fit at the time. I agree that the first change should be made. He seems to be blasting the rumors more than anything.

            But I got the feeling that the second part wasn’t what you suggest. I would say this because of the last sentence in that paragraph where is essentailly says to expect the D700x. That’s what led me to the translation I made. I was going the direction you said, but changed when I saw that.

            I think what he was referring to was when Canon cam out and wiped the floor with Nikon with a 22MP camera that was priced at the D3 market. I think that’s what he was referring to. I don’t think he would be blasting a practice which Nikon has done repeatedly, several times.

            That all being said “se comió” is a dicho, or saying. I’m not familiar with the culture in Spain as my learning is Latin and South American. So if you know their sayings better. By all means I’m cool with it. I think you are right though. He seemed to be negative on both cameras in that paragraph and I failed to convey that.

            Thanks for the input.

          • rhlpetrus

            That’s correct, and it could mean d800 would be 18 or 20mp.

  • http://bonzo.com Bonzo

    Why not aski him about the lenses?

    • Alex

      Just once I would like to be able to read about updated bodies without people saying “what about lenses????” Aren’t they separate rumors? People don’t chime in on the lens rumors with “what about bodies????” Well, I think comments should be about the topic. I hope the D800 is out soon, and I want 24.5mp and 1080/24p video with mini-XLR connection and a built-in stereo mic on the front (not top of the camera). No FAT 32 please.

      • Alex

        Oh I also want dual processors, and AF in video mode. Zoom servo for video mode would be cool too, am I asking for too much?

        • geoff

          Not if you’re willing to spend $9k on a camera body, and are then willing to replace all of your lenses with more expensive powered-zoom variants.

          It’s an SLR – not a full-fledged video camera. Why not ask for firewire ports while you’re at it?

          • Alex

            Firewire 800 maybe. Who said everybody would have to replace ALL their lenses?

        • Alex

          You forgot double CF and Sd cards slots, vibrations compensation sensor, wireless images and videos transfert, 5:4 format (just for Ken) and of course a $1495 retail price.
          (a fireproof body would also be nice)

        • Highlight

          You better go to the EVIL section…

      • soap

        “No FAT32 please”?

        EXT4?

        • KamP

          I want with an iPhone.

  • James

    Canon are due to release the 1DsIV next year with 30 something MP and maybe a 5DIII at the end of next year. Sony will also replace the A900 next year with maybe a 30 something MP model. Nikon you need to put the 24MP sensor in a D800 body with 1080p video otherwise you are in trouble.

    • Stephen

      This is all conjecture. I’m sure Nikon is not going to make a bad move at his point.

  • http://www.danielcanoott.com Daniel

    Well, as a Spanish Nikon user I wouldn’t trust very much whatever is coming from Nikon Spain. They do lie more than talk, so whatever Carlos Ormazabal is saying could be manipulated by Finicon (Nikon Spain).

    Just ask what the Spanish Nikon users do think about Finicon, the only one distributor of Nikon in Spain. It offers the worst service that I have ever seen. Since they sell cameras and at the same time are responsible for the technical service, they refuse to repair Nikon equipment with European warranty if it was not sold by them!!! Many of us have complained to Nikon, but nothing happens. That’s the kind of people that is talking about “future developments”. Maybe they just want to sell the D700′s they have in stock before something new comes out!

    So, whatever happens, it will not be because of Nikon Spain… They play their own game!

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Crikey – not acknowledging European warranties – that’s pretty shitty!

    • jaba

      That is true. Finicon is a shame and Nikon Co should be doing something about them.

  • Pepe Illo

    Summary
    In the original conversation with Carlos Ormazabal there is a lot of information but one must read between lines. He is not guessing because he knows the true. The problem is that he is not allowed to tell us the new coming items.
    - About de D800, he says that it will not come in a short or medium term. At this level, the – D700s will be launched about next summer. The D700s will be a D3s in a D700 body.
    - There is no planning to launch a DX camera in a D3 Body (big body).
    - No software for editing video.
    - Somebody ask for f/4 lenses (like Canon) and he says that are coming interesting things without have to wait long time. Some of them will be in DX format
    - 1.2 crop in D3 via firmware and manual ISO in video for D300s also via firmware (in this case he says do not have official news.

  • Just in case

    I can say that Nikon is loosing right now. Canon is better and Sony more than that. There is also an amazing Leica and Lumix and then there is nothing for a long time and finally Nikon with D90 the rest is just a rubbish.

    I do not compare only the mpx, high iso, but also the innovations.

    Nikon with expensive D300s that had to go cheaper because nobody is buying it.
    I also say waste of money. French mags compared cameras and Nikon is a looser this time.

    • alex

      wow now that you said it… i’ll won’t buy nikon
      i’d like on of those 7d’s which have ghosts inside and often won’t focus

      ghosting is the best innovation in 2009. i want one

      • rhodium

        Don’t forget the wonderful diffraction effects that come at f/6.7 thanks to the ridiculously small pixels!

        Oh, and, while you’re at it, check out the noise reduction. State of the art, I say – it actually manages to remove almost all detail!

        • low

          ^^ these are two funny posts!!

  • Kevin

    This is also why Canon will not make another 5D camera. I think we are more likely to see a Canon 3D Mark I introduced in the new year that will share the 1D Mark IV sensor with visibly less performance. I’m telling you now you will not see a Canon 5D Mark III with some 30mp sensor in it. Canon realized their mistake and won’t do it again and neither will Nikon.

    The fact is that professional photographers that require such a high end camera as a D3x, 1Ds Mark III, D4x or 1Ds Mark IV have the money to pay for the camera systems and by creating lower end cameras with the same pixel count it’s only going to hurt their profitability. Personally I have no issues paying $8,000 for my Nikon D3x, it’s part of my business and is an expected expense every two years.

    Personally I am hoping that Nikon keeps the D4x in the 24.5 megapixel range but blasts the performance of the camera through the roof to the point where ISO 12,800 on the camera would be usable as it would make the camera extremely versatile and amazing.

    My guess, there will not be a D700s.

    I expect the D4 announcement in Spring time followed by a D800 and D4x near the end of next year. The D800 will likely be awfully similar to the D4.

    • Jim

      D4 announced by spring? The d3s isn’t even out yet! I say end of 2010 or beginning of 2011 for D4

    • M!

      no way a D4 by spring 2010.
      the D3 was announced 2 years ago
      D3X announced less than a year ago
      D3S about a month ago.
      no way Nikon (or Canon) is shortening their professional top of the line camera’s marketing / production frame down that much.

      • PHB

        The D3s does not necessarily preclude a D4, 12MP is plenty of resolution for most newspaper applications and most field assignments. For wedding photography, an extra ISO stop may well trump higher resolution.

        One of the major reasons for having a big body camera is that a lot of wedding photographers would like to have gear that is visibly distinct from the type of gear that the customer might have. Otherwise its ‘why am I paying you all this money when I have the same camera’.

        So I think that the D3s is going to be in the catalog for a long time and continue to be manufactured for some time. Spring 2010 for the D4 launch is entirely possible. It is more likely to be later, but it is not out of the question.

        But otherwise, the idea that Nikon or Canon would resist bringing out down market model to protect sales of the flagship is bogus. They know that they have two very different groups of customers.

        The sales of the flagship cameras are nowhere near the sales of the cheaper pro models. Nikon may make less profit on a D700 body than a D3s, but they sell just as many lenses.

        The job of the mid to pro range camera bodies is to sell lenses.

  • getanalogue

    Folks, whatever is coming, it will be better as any actual Nikon body – amazing! Looking forward seeing it and taking pictures. I guess, we will see a D4 and a D400 by August 2010 – it’s Photokina

  • Davo

    D4 generation is unlikely I think and this conjecture is probably fueled more by the wants of forum posters than anything.
    Historically it’s always been 4-yearly cycles so for it to arrive earlier they’ve either really upped their r&d since new pro generation always signal significant technology jumps, or it’ll only be a modest upgrade to the D3s. Which would u rather have? And how is the D3s in any way behind the competition for the segment it competes in.
    Also with all the noise video and mirrorless are making, I think it might even be more likely r&d have been diverted to these area to exploit the growth in these niches, possibly further delaying D4 generation tech. I hope I’m wrong tho.

  • Stephen

    Hey, I have an idea admin. Why don’t we have a area on the forum for translating. It would give us a place to work out the best translation. Maybe only make it visible to those that speak the language and have passed some kind of test, or something like that. It could be just managed by those that are part of it.

    I don’t know. It’s an idea. I think it would help to get us the best translations possible while keeping a lot of the translation nitpicking away from the discussion. Anyway, there’s my two cents.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      good idea – I hope I will not forget it next time, because I get too excited when I have rumors to post – can’t wait….

      • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

        Thank you all for the translations!

  • Kevin

    The D4 is closer to reality than you would realize. The problem now is the technology is changing much faster which is making the life span of these cameras significantly shorter. Right now we are really in an unknown world and we can expect Nikon and Canon to push each other more and more and faster and faster. Overall this can only be good for us photographers.

    • Davo

      Any insider’s tip there, Kevin??
      Haha.. I know I have none so I’ll admit this is purely speculation but I would contend that technology is moving ahead at a pretty predictable rate. And short of any game changing breakthroughs, its more likely we’ll see incremental changes which is what I’d expect if camera companies keep shortening their product cycles to within 18month for example. But if they kept the cycles at say their regular 4 yearly period, all those increments should add up to a nice jump.
      Of course I’m overly simplifying things and I hope Nikon does pull some nice surprises every now and then. Predictability is good but boring.

    • M!

      however, the marketing people in both Nikon and Canon will hold off all these to extend the life of these pro cameras until they recover their R&D and make money in them. no point pushing each other. they know pushing out technology does not help their business.

  • KT

    Am I the only one having a hard time making sense of that last sentence” It is not likely that Nikon will commit the same error as Cannon and produce a camera which ill be eaten alive by the MkIII’s 22MPs.” was he referring to the 5D mark II canabalizing the 1Ds mark III sales, even that doesn’t make sense to me, could someone explain that to me, thanks

    • M!

      i read it the way you did.
      Canon users are just as confused. why their Top of the Line camera is not top of the line.

    • Tim

      So maybe what it means is that Nikon will produce a higher resoultion, smaller-sized FX body, but it won’t be 24mp so as not to take market away from the D3x. If Nikon is in a position to develop a new sensor (which seems to buck their present trend) they could turn out a D700x / D800 with an 18mp sensor. This would keep the D3x firmly at the top of the pile (no ambiguity over which is their flagship model), but provide a higher resolution alternative to the D700. Alternatively they may just delay releasing a D700x / D800 that uses the D3x sensor until they’ve upgrded the D3x in some distant future time.

      • KT

        I agree with your reasoning and it make sense, except for 2 caveats, 1) Developing a new lower-resolution FX-format sensor in the 18-20 MP range, just to fill the gap between the D3x and D700 is a prohibitively expensive undertaking. It’s far cheaper to offer the same 24 MP sensor in the D3x in a smaller body, even if it would cost them all sales from the D3x. It’s not like they are selling thousands of D3x bodies. Even Canon with its vast resources decided against a lower MP sensor for the 5D mark II, opting instead to use the 1Ds sensor in their 5D mark II, with the expected result of killing their 1Ds mark III sales. 2) Sony is already giving away the same 24 MP sensor for free in the alpha 850, that body is already selling in the same price range as the D300s. That sensor couldn’t be that expensive if Sony is selling it for $1800 in a reasonably well-built body.

        • Tim

          I agree with what you say. Nikon does keep sticking their latest, greatest sensors into a smaller body a year or so down the line. Just they forgot to do so with the D3x! Which means we might have to wait for either an upgrade of the D3x, which I can’t see happening soon as they’ve only just got round to it with the D3. Otherwise waiting till the D4 is released before relinquishing to demand for a small body with a hi-res sensor. We’re talking about a company who seems to dictate it’s own pace, not that demanded by its customers…

          • nobody

            “Nikon does keep sticking their latest, greatest sensors into a smaller body a year or so down the line. Just they forgot to do so with the D3x!”

            How do you know? The D3X is not yet one year old. And PMA in February would mean a 15 months timeframe from the D3X introduction. Would be perfectly in line with their usual habits (-:

          • Tim

            So there we go then. A D700x / D800 at PMA in Feb, followed by the update of the D700 (so a D700s) later in the year. I think Photokina is in about September? Follow that up in 2010 with the introduction of a D4 / D400 combo in time for the Olympics. Doesn’t seem like too far-fetched a programme for Nikon’s top end dslrs.

  • Anony-mou

    Wow this guy talked a lot for once! I know someone that’s not gonna stay the boss too long :-)

    • KT

      I had the same thought when I first read his response. I said to myself, that guy either had one too many martinis before stepping up to the mic or he already signed up for a job with Sony and just doesn’t care any more what the boys from Osaka HQ think about him

  • zen-tao

    Everybody in Spain knows well who are the Nikonistas people in Spain. They monopolize the Nikon cameras in Spain and the technical services. They leave unattended the warranties of the ones who have purchased thir cameras abroad. They sell the cámeras more expensive than anywhere. Nikon is not iintroduced completely in the Spanish market because them.
    Those people is not 100% reliable even less. Besides he hasn’t told anything to vanish our questions. That guy actually doesn’t know anything.

  • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

    Does anybody have a visual Nikon timeline with announcements ?
    inc ‘s’ and ‘x’ updates
    Would be goot so see / use as an estimate

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Here’s one (see bottom)
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikon_D300

      • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

        From that I’d expect
        700s – fairly soon – Q1 2010
        700x/800 – end of 2010

  • Anonymous

    as a native spanish speaker, I read the full thread. I can tell you that he is mostly just expressing his views while fully declaring that he will not give details (or does not know details) about future product moves.

    however he did say to expect interesting thigs in the optics side, particularly the pro line, since nikon is looking continue revamping their pro lineup. again no details mentioned.

    his actual translation is (when asked about an f/4 pro line):
    -It is not a bad possibility [that an f/4 line may show up]
    -You know that information about future releases is vetoed, but I can assure you that nikon is renewing their optics portfolio. and you will not have to wait “long term” to see REALLY INTERESTING things…

    Thus he may actually know about future optics while his knowledge about camera body release is still foggy (or at least he is a lot more uncertain about this than in optics). That would mean the new lenses are probably just around the corner and managers like him have been briefed on the details.

  • Anonymous

    here is some more translation from his other posts:

    -When asked why nikon is behind the competition in manual controls and 1080p hd:

    he answers:
    -The D3s is 100% manual in aperture, and ISO ( then makes reference to movies, possible alluding at the 24fps). We believe that the D300s can also have this [manual controls] via a new firmware.

    -The topic of resolution is a separate question.
    I’ll begin by saing that it is necesary that we have FullHD (aka 1080p) in our cameras. but only due to marketing reasons. technically speaking, everything we see – tv, youtube hd, vimeo, etc, is 720p. Only bluray uses FullHD and I don’t know of anybody who is thinking about moving their archives in FullHD. IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE.

    -For now, video is an accesory of photos. Thus, Nikon has chosen the format of quality (MJPEG) before increasing the characteristics of video. (I assume he is saying nikon used MJPEG as a side featore for video before eventually supporting full HD, possible with a different codec? h264?. He does not say).

    -carlos: What I don’t have any doubts about, is that in the end we will have FullHD….even if nobody uses it ;-).

  • michael

    It seems that whenever high iso is mentioned in these rumor comment sections, it is drowned out by demands for MORE MEGAPIXELS! Enough already.

    Nikon, buddy, pal, this is what I, and your bread and butter customers want from you, anyone who wants/owns a D3anything should ignore this post. You are not bread and butter customers. D90/300/700 owners, this is for you…

    Full Frame DSLR with:
    • 18 Megapixels+
    • Clean ISO to 12,800
    • Dual Card Slots
    • Weather-Sealed Body
    • 100% View-Finder. again… ONE HUNDRED PERCENT VIEWFINDER. (and make it round. The human eye is round. Enough with the wedge shapes.)
    • SUPER QUIET MODE. Like a cloth shutter on a Leica M7. Or better yet, like the shutter on the Hexar AF. Live mode or delayed shutter do not count.
    Price range: $1,999-2,500

    Unobtrusive photography is REALLY popular right now. Take a break from the megapixel crowd for a while. Small. Quiet. Unobtrusive. High/Clean ISO. Weather-Sealed. Moderate amount of megapixels. Dual Card Slots for backup. Full-Frame. Reasonable price.

    Then add the following to your line up…

    12-24 f/2.8 FULL-FRAME (under $1,500)
    24 f/1.4 (under $800)
    35 f/1.4 (under $600)
    85 f/1.4 VR (under $1,200)

    Then, get in on the Leica X1/D-Lux 4/Olympus Pen 2 market! And make it look classy, not utilitarian. Think Apple. Not IBM.

    Annnnnnnnd, were done.

    • Anonymous

      the 24 1.4, 35 1.4 and 85 1.4 are already patented and in the works. However I think their prices will be several hundred dollars more. I suspect the 24 and 85 will be parked around 1.5K+ with the 35 1.4 being around 800+.

      this is due to the strong yen and not because nikon is trying to rip us off any more than usual.

      • michael

        Well stated. Everyone take note, and be as well thought-out, concise, and friendly as this replier was. Try you must. Succeed you will.

        • BillyBobJohnson

          Michael – is that what you look like?

    • Anony-mou

      Why a 12-24 when the 14-24 is almost brand new?

      • michael

        Those extra 2mm on the wide-end make all the difference in the world. In fact, I would rather see Nikon produce these dream lenses:

        • 10-24mm f/2 (non-fisheye at the wide end, and fully-usable wide-open.)
        • 40mm f/1.2
        • 85mm f/1.2
        • 200-500 f/2.8-4.0 VR

        This will not happen this century.

        And this one will not happen this millennium:

        50mm f/.95

        • Anonymous

          I’d also like to see something wider than 14mm in full frame. The only option is the sigma or the nikor 13mm prime.

          However I think to keep the price and weight down, I’d like an f/4 intead. As much as I love my 14-24, it is rarely used f/2.8 since most of my use is for landscapes where shooting wide open doesn’t really have any benefits. Also if it was f/4 it could probably be designed to accept circular filters, instead of the rectangular ones you have to use with the 14-24.

          • michael

            I would be extra happy with an 11mm f/1.4 prime in full frame. Think of the nightscapes and low-light landscapes you could capture handheld or just braced against something for a moment. Most people use their pricy ultra-wide zooms fixed at the wide-end, so it makes good business sense to build fast/ultra-wide primes.

        • PHB

          It already happened, and more. Zeiss brought out an f/0.7 50 mm lens years ago. Kubrick famously used it for Barry Lyndon.

          You may not see it in F-mount, but it is certainly viable for a rangefinder design.

          The depth of field is ridiculously small, about a foot or less.

          • michael

            I want autofocus in an f/.95. Manual focus can be useful in dim lighting, and when the lights brighten, I want that f/.95 lens to autofocus. My eyes are always set to autofocus.

      • michael

        Nikon should buy Leica, integrate their lines, let Leica continue to design and operate independently – but for Nikon -, ditch the rangefinder method, up the ISO, keep the camera menus clean like with a Leica, keep the quiet unobtrusiveness, lower the price, market to a wider demographic than Leica, use auto-focus and super-telephoto lenses, and most importantly keep the style and class that both Leica and Apple products are gifted with. Is that too much to ask?

        Yes. That is too much to ask. But it’s a damn fine idea. Nikon, get back to me on this. I could be the sugar to your tea.

        • nobody

          Michael, please, please, please, send me a bag of what you have been smoking (-:

          • michael

            I like this reply. You should reply more often to my comments. Like, I’ll set them up, you drive ‘em home. Volleyball style.

  • Dude

    Who is really interested in a shrinked D3s at all? I´m not. Waiting 3 years for a video function, i don´t get it. They should introduce another sensor than 12MP to fully take advantage of the good nikkor lenses.

  • Kuken

    I’m switching to Canon

  • low

    we wont be seeing a d700 variant.

  • Kevin

    Sigh I’m going to be 90% of you on here really have no need for anything larger than 12mp sensor but you just think it’s cool to say my camera has 24.5 megapixels.

    I’ll repeat this one more time.

    NIKON WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CAMERA THAT WILL DIRECTLY COMPETE WITH THE D3X. THEY ARE STILL SELLING STRONGLY THROUGH MAJOR RETAILERS.

    Seriously if you were nikon would you produce a $3,000 camera with the same functionality as the D3x just to make some non-pro photographer happy. They know the pros that shoot Nikon have no problem spending the money on a D3x, and honestly it’s worth every penny.

    Sure sony has the same sensor, but the sony camera is a serious pile of crap. The quality is no where near the D3x.

    • CM

      So? 90% of people don’t need more than ISO 1600 (I mean, come on… how many photos of pitch-black bat caves *really* get printed at 20″x30″?), but it doesn’t stop camera manufacturers from improving that side of the equation either. Most people don’t need 24MP, but some will need it often, and others may need it occasionally… and the competition is selling double-resolution cameras to the D700 at a similar price point (A850, A900, 5DII).

      You can have a debate about how valuable resolution is as a feature, but you can’t debate that it has some value (all you can do is debate the priority to *your* needs).

      Oh, and people need to stop saying Nikon will never release a camera that competes with it’s own flagship – THEY HAVE DONE THIS REPEATEDLY, A YEAR AFTER THEY RELEASE A FLAGSHIP CAMERA, LIKE CLOCKWORK. I’m glad you’re enjoying your $8K camera, but for Pete’s sake get informed before you start making those kinds of arguments, and take off the bias glasses.

  • Dude

    so the ultra sharp and heavy nikkor 14-24 2.8 ist just waste? ( = for D3x photographers only). I repeat, you do not need this resolution on a cropped or big pixeled 12MP sensor ;-)

  • Kevin

    Seriously I can make the exact same pictures with a Nikon D3 that I can with my D3x. The only real difference is on one the images are much larger which allows for bigger prints. How many of you seriously need a camera that can print 40″x60″ images. I’m going to be 99% of you do not.

    • T140Rider

      It is not only bigger prints but HEAVIER CROPPING in Photoshop that leave an image capable of being printed to A3 size.

      • http://blackbeardben.smugmug.com Blackbeard Ben

        Cropping implies failure on the part of the photographer’s compositional skills.

        People are better off investing in better lenses and learning how to frame photos than relying on “cropping” in post.

  • Kevin

    I don’t think we’ll see a replacement for the D700 until at least June, bare minimum. I am personally convinced the D4 sensor will be in the D800 again. The D700 is still a rock solid camera so you can’t go wrong with it. As said before the 12 megapixels is more than enough for the vast majority of people. I’m a professional and the 12 megapixels would be good enough for 90% of the work I do.

    • grumps

      Finally, someone I can agree with! :-)
      About the timeframe for the D800, not until the D4 is released, and then it’s relative to when the D700 was released after the D3 sound like the most reasonable assumption, since most are guessing.

      Personally, getting is right from 18-25MP is what I can hope, at least I’ll feel like it’s finally caught up a little with film :p

  • werner

    Guys,

    I’ve been reading these rumours on the d700 for quite some days now. I’m going to buy a d700 in the coming days.
    - seeing all D700s/x & D800 rumours
    - looking at Canon/Sony megapixel wars
    do you still think I should buy a d700

    looking for some serious advice here !

    • KT

      I just purchased a D700 myself after going through the same questions and debate you are having. I can tell you, it’s an awesome camera, you won’t experience any buyer’s remorse for many years. Of course I never tried the 5D mark II and was very tempted by the Sony Alpha 850 given the fact it has essentially the same sensor as the 8K D3x. Still, you can’t go wrong with the D700 particularly with all price drops going on for a D700. My previous camera was a Canon 5D mark I (12.8 MP) which is still quite a respectable camera with a so-so AF. The IQ from he D700 is tops and even though I’m not that big on high ISO photography, it’s nice to know it’s there when you need it. The DXO mark sensor analysis is what clinched it for me. My advice is Go ahead, you won’t regret it.

      • Kevin

        You know it’s funny many Canon photographers would gladly take that 5D Mark I over the 5D Mark II. Image quality on the original is way better.

  • low

    cmon nikon! i want to take photos of my niece, dog and a barbed wired fence at 24.5MP in a midsized body!!!! and to qualify how good i am, i want to take those huge files and process them in LR then touch it up in PS like Kelby or Mcnally do, seriously i read their books – im pro!!

  • Dan

    He said:
    wait 6 to 8 months after the D3S, for the D700 replacement who call it “the baby D3s” …so the D700xs or D800

  • Kevin

    LOL it would be stupid to release it in 6-8 months which is when they expect a D4 to be released in the same year. That comment about served to be a true statement although the poster was obviously being sarcastic.

    He is right though, almost nobody really needs that 24.5 megapixels. I rarely use it for my own work so why does a person who isn’t a pro need a 24.5 megapixel camera.

    • soap

      I believe you will find a consensus that 16×20″ is the largest size one can reasonably expect to enlarge a 35mm negative to before you reach diminishing returns. (no more signal to be recovered)

      A 16×20″ print, obviously, is in the 4:5 aspect ratio, and represents an uncropped negative of 16×24″.

      I also think you will find a consensus that _prints_ have an information density of right around 200-300 dpi.

      16×24″ x 300 dpi therefore can be considered consensus “informational density” of the reasonably best 35mm film exposed, developed, and printed with the best techniques (and lenses). (Not at all saying this is anywhere close to the _average_ informational density, just the _max_)

      Therefore one can reasonably say that 35mm film has its _theoretical_ resolutional equal in digital when the resolution of sensors (not the pixel count, the resolution) reaches 4800*7200=34.5 megapixel.

      As I hope I clearly qualified – 9x% of films, 9x% of lenses, 9x% of techniques can’t reach this limit – I just want to illustrate why, though, there are people (_besides_ the unwashed idiots) who are calling for more MP.

      • Davo

        When u say a resolution of 34.5 mpx and not pixel count, are u adlluding to how bayer sensors only record one colour per photosite then interpolates.
        If so, then for bayer sensors, what is this theoretical pixel count?
        Anyways I have to say I totally agree that pixel count has gone crazy. And for that matter, iso is starting to go silly too but at least I can see how really clean 6400 would be great. But at over 100k iso, can I really even see what I’m photographing?
        I hope they do a large production batch of the D3s sensor and also stick it in a d700s (highly likely) then a cut down feature but well built body. So u get something small and rugged. I think there’s a market for just that, without all the bling but top notch image quality. It can even be mf, or if marketing don’t like that, just put the d90 af module in there.

        • Anonymous

          Partly. Think of film as having a theoretical resolution on the micro level (limited by average photosensitive molecule size) and a “real-world” resolution on the macro scale (the above formentioned ~35 MP) as a result of all the real-world physical and chemical issues _in the film itself_ which decrease resolution potential. The same thing is, and will be, true of digital sensors. Just because your sensor has 5000 rows of pixels (post interpolation) (the “resolution”) doesn’t mean it will be able to distinguish (resolve) 2500 lines.

      • Mark

        soap,

        I agree with your basic math.

        Mark

  • zen-tao

    Actually, I’d rather read the optimistic adds from Michael with her beautiful icon than the dog’s face Soap ones. You guys have an indigestion of data. You talk like a cameras salesman who only cut-and-paste the information he reads in the brochures.

    Nikon has lenses who are able to show more details than the sensors now-a-days deliver. Have a look to a single picture taken with a D3x. Don´t try to mix up us. People are not as idiot as you expect. Nikon Company doesn’t have any excuse for not issuing a new and cheap camera model.
    Other day I made a picture with my son’s 12mpx Fujifilm camera and it had more details than the one taken with my D200. Other issue is the quality, processor etc, etc. But with more Mpx a single camera delivers more detail than any other professional.

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