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There will be another camera announced, but not Nikon D700x/D700s

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I have no reliable information that Nikon will release a D700s/D700x camera on October 15 (the actual release date may vary +/- one day based on your location). It also doesn't make sense to release two PRO level cameras at the same time - I know, D3 was announced with the D300 two years ago but they had different sensors, etc.

There will be a second camera, or line of cameras announced in two weeks. The reports on that are wild and go from a new small digital Nikkormat (unlikely) to a Nikon P6000 replacement and maybe even a Leica X1 clone. It will be something new rather than a replacement from of an old model (but definitely no DSLR or D700s/D700x). Using Google translation to "decrypt" messages from Asia certainly doesn't help... (sorry, I cannot use [NR] readers as translators for privacy reasons).

As for the lenses, Nikon AF-S 16-35mm f/4G ED VR and Nikon AF-S 100-500mm f/4-5.6 IF-ED VR sound promising (even though the 100-500 is expected next year) and possibly a third, wide angle lens. I expect all announced lenses to be full frame.

Here is the break down of probabilities based on the information I have:

  • Release date: October 15 (+/- one day): 99%
  • Nikon D3s: 99%
  • Second camera (not DSLR type): 80%
  • Nikon AF-S 16-35mm f/4G ED VR: 70%
  • Nikon AF-S 100-500mm f/4-5.6 IF-ED VR - October 15th release: 50% / 2010 release: 70%
  • Third, unknown wide angle lens: 50%

Of course all of those are just rumors and they may change at any time. Stay tuned!

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  • http://nikonrumors.com Son of FE

    Well, it looks like my d300 and my wallet may be safe for a while longer. The potential P600/ leica-ish replacement may be interesting.

    • http://nikonrumors.com Son of FE

      I believe that we mean p6000 not p600.

    • twoomy

      >> “Well, it looks like my d300 and my wallet may be safe for a while longer.”

      Same thought here. Thank you Nikon for helping me save money by not releasing a D700x! Keep releasing those “s” models so I stay disinterested. :)

  • CreativeAngle

    I will be happy to see 100-500 provided I dont need to sell my house to buy it

    • GlobalGuy

      Not your house — just your car.

  • SAM27

    A first F-mount Nikon Rangefinder with AF… WOW ? just a dream.. sorry

    • BillyBobJohnson

      What’s a rangefinder?

      • WoutK89

        I’ve learned Wikipedia is a really nice source to learn small basics :-P

        • GlobalGuy

          Rangefinder is just a device to find distance. A rangefinder CAMERA is a camera with a rangefinder. Is it stupid to talk about rangefinders anymore, though? I am asking. Shouldn’t it be standard by now whether film or digital?

          Are there actually cameras on the market that can’t find distance information anymore?

      • Just a Thought

        “What’s a rangefinder?”

        Its something that was supposed to come out at end of Sep, but got delayed.

        Leica makes one also – check Leicarumors.com which is rumored to have a site link located at the top of the Nikonrumors.com site.

      • Jim

        rangefinders aren’t SLR – meaning no mirror between lens and sensor. From what I understand, lens can be closer to film/sensor plane. Some say that is better. You can google and find more info

      • f/2.8

        Rangefinder is a camera that has a focusing system but cannot be classified as SLR nor TLR.

  • Alex

    If it’s true, that sucks.
    Why nikon cant’t put a 24MP sensor in a D700 (from D3x) ?
    Many of us are waiting for the D700x, even for $3500.
    And no 300mm f/4 VR ?
    I sold my D200 and bought a D5000 while waiting for the D700x, the D5000 give me the same “picture quality” as the D300s.
    Why would I pay $1800 for the D300s, who make a 30mm from my 20mm and has only 12MP ?
    Do we have to wait for the 2010 PMA (or maybe the 2015 PMA) I can’t afford a D3x.
    I am disapointed, the 300mm f/4 is on the market since 2000, they keep making cheap zoom with VR, why not the 300mm f/4, Nikon prefer sell the AF-S 300mm f/2.8 VR II ?
    That’s not the same market.

    • U Crzy Alex

      So, you sold your d200 to downgrade to d5000 because you didn’t want to buy a d300s because you’re waiting for an unannounced, as yet mythical d700x? Maybe you should spend less time watching for a d700x rumor (99%) and more time playing with your “in the mean time” camera. Practice framing and composition with your d5000 and maybe you won’t need a 24MP camera to crop the hell out of your pictures. jeez

    • zeeGerman

      If you can’t afford a D3x, my best guess is that you don’t need 24mp, you only want them. Your willing to pay 3500 for a D700x? get a D700, spend the 1000 Dollar you save on glass or light, or get the current 300mm f/4 and a monopod, and you’re good to go.
      All you need, is already out there.

      • GlobalGuy

        What if they can afford a Canon 5D MII, though? I think what is bugging Nikonians is not that they can’t afford 24 mp — they CAN — its just that they would have to switch brands to do it. And what pisses them off is that those brands are almost and in many ways equal to Nikon, depending on the application in question.

        Therefore its a simple proposition to Nikon: GET THE DAMN 24mp CAMERAS OUT.

        Its a choice issue, that’s all. And to say that someone doesn’t need 24mp is like saying someone doesn’t need more than 6 mp — FINE to say that, but I don’t see any demand for going back to 6 mp DSLRs, except in point-and-shoots.

        So until the day that Mid-Pro-body DSLR users are demanding lower resolution, I think we can safely stop telling the market what it wants vs. what it needs, and simply accept that it tells us what to provide and what they are willing to pay for it.

        • zzddrr

          GlobalGuy – 100% agree

          I hate seeing that many people think what is good for them that must be good for everyone else. Anyway, that whas my rant.

          On the other hand, I am not sure whether it is an error but I noticed on B&H that the Canon 5DMK II body is discontinued. Are they preparing for a refresh? Let’s say in the 7D body a 5DMK III? That would cut production costs. Now if it is true then Canon already has an answer for the non-existent high res. small body Nikon. Make it worse, if Nikon does not come out this year with some kind of 700X (or name it how you want it) then Nikon is in deep sh&*!t.

    • http://www.www.com Landscape Photo

      I agree with you, and go even further; why not a retractable compact 300mm f/5.6 VR !

      From D200 to D5000 is not downgrading if image quality is concerned. Though the body and ergonomics may be poorer, it will be good enough for a temporary period.

      People need D700x for detailed images, but not for a substitute for bad composition technique. I bet the opposite, whoever up to this camera must have mastered these issues long ago.

      Nikon seems to get pleasure torturing folks. Remember, how long people had to wait between D70 to D2x, or D2x to D300.

    • bla

      [quote]Why would I pay $1800 for the D300s, who make a 30mm from my 20mm and has only 12MP ? [/quote]

      Only 12 MPixel? Yeah, that’s only enough for billboards… And the D5000 does not make 30mm out of 20mm? Stop talking rubbish. ‘
      As for that alleged, unconfirmed and unknown quantity called “D700x”… Give me the high ISO performance of the D700 any day over a high-ISO limited 24 megapixel. But more: why does every freaking article here have comments on this D700x that does not exist. Cut it out.

      And stop thinking the D700x market is that big. The fact that half the posters here want it is statistically worth exactly nothing. Nikon does not have to do as Canon does – lately Nikon proved well enough it seems to be able to read the market well enough. So don’t think you know better unless you run a company with more DSLR sales.

      And quit whining about the 300 f/4 VR. Learn how to handle the current one properly instead, it’s already a heck of a performer without VR.

      • zzddrr

        and bla you have a statistics masters degree I assume.

        Another one who knows everything and thinks that if it is good for him then it must be good for everyone else.

        My friend, in the meantime take a look at the sales of 5DMK2 and D700. According to some stores it is something around 5:1 (meaning sale of 5 5DMK2 while 1xD700) But there are stores where that figures is 7:1. Now go back to your statistical calculations and figure out the rest. But as far as I am concerned the name of the game for Nikon and Canon is still sale and profit. So when people complain for something for over a year then they must have come from a different galaxy and excuse poor Nikon for not listening and ignoring the customer requests. Make it even worse, just throw more plastic crap on them such as all the wonderful Dwhateverthousands and release your products with the help of the Star Wars Kids who are running around in sandals.

        • Goose

          And the months when the D700 was for sale and the 5DII wasn’t?

          We’ll talk numbers after BOTH models are nearing market saturation. (While I expect the 5DII to sell more – your 5:1 and 7:1 numbers are meaningless.)

          • Ennan

            also lets not forget that the 5d mkII is selling a lot to videographers – that has bugger all to do with the megapixels. It’s cheap full frame video that’s driving much of the sales.

          • zzddrr

            Goose –

            D700 was announced in July 08 – Available let’s say September (or august)
            5DMK II was announced in Sep 08 – Available around late November early December

            So we are talking about max 1 month advantage for Nikon because many waited to see how the new Canon performed.

            Again, I agree the sales figures cannot be representative. However, even if we just consider a 2:1 ratio, we are talking about 250k cameras. Apply the profit ratio and see what Canon made.

            Look, not the figures are the main point. The main point is that Nikon is sitting on its bum and does not care about what actually customers are asking for.

            Ennan – yes that is exactly the difference. In the US, they two key drivers of the Canon sales (5D II) are the Video and MP. Also, more affordable lens lineup for an FF camera.

      • peter harrap

        24ish MP gives us detailed images for the first time, so dont knock it. 12MP is very good, the images are detailed, BUT viewers know the detail is there, yet cannot see it. This has been a major limitation of photography since its invention. The threshold is there, but rarely crossed. We do not ever see even large format images enlarged as much as they can be commercially (unless you buy a Gersky), because reproduced as billboards through coarse screens and in magazines they remain, dare one say it, rather noisy!

        Low noise high quality imagery is the way to go. Nikon have long realised this- it is why they waited so long to go FF.

        What needs must be realised is the severe unlikelihood of a D700x actually happening.

        The recent price hike has raised lens prices in the UK by 30-50% . THe 300mm f4 you opine about was everywhere available 20 years ago for £60 secondhand. Check the new price of a 300mm f4 then- it was low. Body prices are astronomically expensive still. They are a fortune compared to an F6 and the F6 is very expensive. And it wont be obsolesced easily, it cant be.

        The D3X is NOT obsolete, unlike the D3 whose life was short bnecause of the 24.5 MP sensors appearance. That is why Nikon released the D700- it was already obsolete at release.

        Canon themselves state that the 5DII image quality betters its own 1DsIII.

        So now other manufacturers can hold fire, at will, because the D3x image quality is the best that exists in a 35mm type body. Releasing an as good D3x when the D3x is the best makes no sense- after all the Leica M9 is the same price, far more limited and of inferior qualkity IQ-wise (seriously).

        I hope Nikon do do a 24MP cheaper machine with 24p video, of course I do. We all do. Does the D3x have video? so?

  • Weston

    2010 olympics, always new pro camera’s announced pre-olympics. 14 fps is pretty awesome, video? meh

    • ilmando

      There won’t be Olympics in 2010 (Olympics in China were last year). There will be soccer World Cup, if you’re into soccer…

      • dgbinpc

        The folks in Vancouver will be mighty disappointed to find that the 2010 Olympic Winger Games are not happening.

  • 2beers

    “something new rather than a replacement from of an old model”. admin – why are you so sure it will not be a DSLR? Could also be a new line of DSLRs, like an “affordable” Fullframe, placed somewhere between the D300s and the D90.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Just based on the info I receive. Again, “affordable” Fullframe is also possible, but with a lower probability at least for now, maybe like 20% (pretty low compared to the rest)

    • twoomy

      “Affordable” fullframe in Nikon’s world is the D700. I wouldn’t expect anything cheaper or lower-res than that in the FX world. It’s a shame that test D700x’s have been rumored to be floating around in testing, but they probably will not see the light of day until everybody has given up on them.

      • Anonymous

        2003:

        “Affordable” DSLR in Nikon’s world is the D100. I wouldn’t expect anything cheaper or lower-res than that in the DSLR world.

  • Snafu

    There was an NR post a while back about an Australian pro stating that Nikon was going to release something that would cause Canon shooters to sell off their gear. Presumably this pro was testing some not yet released Nikon DSLR.

    Both Canon and Sony have FF available for under $3000 and xmas is coming. Nikon made boatloads of money from high volume D40 sales. Do they want to forfeit the mid-price FF segment? I think they want to be part of that market so they profit from selling new FF glass and $50 lenshoods.

    My hunch is a FF DSLR with 24 mp in FF and 12 in DX. I also have this thought that this DSLR may have the capacity to swap sensors. Nikon was rumored to be working on this 2 years ago and it seems like the kind of breakthrough product to be expected from the company that introduced the the Nikon F. Buy the body today for $3k. Upgrade the sensor next year for $1k

    • gncl

      The original post said that it doesn’t make sense for Nikon to release two PRO level cameras at the same time, but I think it makes a lot less sense for Nikon to continue even longer before announcing a higher resolution D700 replacement.

      Pretty amazing that Nikon are still in a situation where their only SLR significantly above 12Mp is the massive and massively expensive D3x. People keep making the point that resolution isn’t everything, and that the D700 is still a fantastic camera. Both are definitely true. But the fact is that resolution is a genuinely important factor for many photographers, and I know of several who have had to reluctantly leave Nikon to get a 5D Mk2 or Sony camera.

      I don’t want to have to do that, and I agree with snafu – to me it would be incredible [and very disappointing] if Nikon don’t release a 24mp D700 upgrade before the end of the year.

      Hmm, upgradable sensor, that would be interesting :)

    • Soap

      FWIW 24 in FF is more like 10.3 in DX as the D3x illustrates.

    • DC

      That Australian Pro later admitted that his info was based on the long-debunked “leaked Nikon roadmap” and that he was angry at Canon for something and just wanted to hit back.

      We’re in the DSLR release phase where the fanboys are selling their Nikons and buying Canons. It will be a couple years before they sell Canons to buy Nikons.

    • f/2.8

      That’s just an Aussie’s version of KR – say anything to drive traffic to his blog. Shameless.

      • Gordon

        To be fair, he did come out later and say the information he was alluding to was true from Nikon but didn’t say much more about it. He said he caught a lot of flak from Canon for coming out and saying what he did, so not sure if it was a stunt to get more hits or not.

  • zpmagic

    for D3x,D700x can’t be annouced,but why also D700s?So I have to buy 5d2

    • bla

      Then buy the Canon. And a bunch of Canon lenses. And learn a new body with different ergonomics. If you think megapixels make better pictures, by all means, go Canon.

  • kristupa saragih

    more info on AF-S 16-35/4G VR please…any picture leak of this lens? curious to see whether it’s a plastic lens like 12-24/4DX or more like pro lens such AF-S 17-35/2.8…Really can’t wait till the announcement day…:D

  • low

    waaaaaaaahhhhh!! no d700x!! i want my d700x, NEED 24MP badly, waaaaaaahhh!!

  • Astrophotographer

    I’ll predict the 85mm f1.4 with VR. Nikon has a patent application that was published thursday. #20090244724

    http://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PG01&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=%2220090244724%22.PGNR.&OS=DN/20090244724&RS=DN/20090244724

    I think Nikon will release this one.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      we covered the AF-S 85mm f/3.5 VR, but this was a DX lens and I don’t think we will see it announced with the D3s.

      http://nikonrumors.com/2009/08/17/we-should-pay-a-very-close-attention-to-this-patent-nikon-af-s-85mm-f3-5-dx-vr.aspx

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      no images available for this patent – I will check again during the weekend

      • Astrophotographer

        I can view the images at the USTPO. The design is slight variation of the current 85mm f1.4. Same number of elements. But there is mention of vibration reduction. Because is a minor change to the existing lens I think it will be out soon.

  • Ryan Brenizer

    I’ll go freaking crazy if they release another D3 model with no pro fast primes.

  • Crabby

    I really don’t understand: 50% release on earlier date and 70% release on later date means 120% chance of release when? Do you mean 50% NLT earlier date and 70% NLT later date or what, please?

    If 80-400mm becomes 100-500mm, carrying the new lens and an 16-85mm leaves me with a gap and I really prefer about 10-20% overlap to minimize lens changing if I’m going to lug zooms. Is there something more than a two- or three-year-old dummy Nikon ad from Japan expreessing wishful thinking behind this statement?

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      that means that the probability goes up from 50% to 70% (both out of 100%) for the later date, I am trying to say that there is a better chance for this lens to be released next year

      • Michael

        Relax Admin, it “Probably” just means that some folks never took probability and statistics in school.

        99% of us probably understand what you meant. I had an instructor many years ago that said something very wise that I have never forgotten, in every crowd there is always one…

        Keep up the good work! Maybe we can soon order our D3s bodies to match our shiny new 70-200 VRII’s!

  • Still Waiting

    from the Malaysian poster in the previous post
    we saw 3 cameras
    I think the one in the front would be D3s
    the one on the right also has a big body like the D3/D3X
    but the one on the looks like a D300/D700 type body to me
    so I guess 3 DSLRs this time

    • Segura

      Dude, I don’t think that image is what to expect from the actual conference thing. Just stock pictures of cameras to fill an ad.

      Relax man, two weeks. We will probably have some more tasty bits before then. Now if Nikon can please start shipping the 70-200mm VRII lenses now, I would be happy.

  • NikoDoby

    So a D3S along with a DX interchangeable lens compact camera? Or better yet the long dreamed about digital SP :)

  • Alex

    About 24MP : (response to comments, see on the top)
    I came to DSLR very late (D200) because I had better results scaning a film (I worked in a lab at that time) than shooting with a 6MP DSLR camera.
    %95 of my pictures will never be printed larger than 8×10 but few of them are publisher or printed in very large size.
    I spent alot of money in pro lenses because they are fast, sharp and make the job easier.
    I can’t think about spending a day taking pictures in the jungle with mosquitos, snakes and all kind of nice creatures, and end up with pictures that can’t be use for professional results.
    24MP and FX is the minimum for me, knowing that my lenses can produce enough details for a 50MP sensor.
    If you don’t agre with me, ask to Hasselblad’s user why the bother with a medium size camera when you can take pictures with a point and shoot camera !

    • f/2.8

      If I were you, need 24MP, but can’t afford D3X, I would have bought a 5D2 and be happy. Or suck it up and cough up $8k and be even happier.

    • bla

      Right, you had a D200 but 24MP is the minimum for you? OK.
      Knowing your lenses can deliver 50MP? Think again.

      And comparing a DSLR to a medium format camera, and a P&S at the same time. Great insights in the market there :-| Even seen a Hasselblad in between the mosquitos and the snakes ….? Thought so. Horses for courses.

      But if you insist on professional results, and want us to believe you’re so pro, then you would already have known the D3x delivers enough to be worth the investment. And you would not be here whining about its pricetag.

      • zzddrr

        bla, you are simply a rude and arrogant person.

        Alex did not try to offend anyone, he explained his views and experience. In the meantime you just killed an interresting conversation. For example, I would be curious to know how he tested his lenses to determine the 50MP limit.

        • Anonymous

          He killed a line of BS in its tracks. If you find that interesting, pray read on.

          • zzddrr

            Anonymus, obvious you cannot even read.

            Yes, there is a reason why I asked how Alex determined the 50MP.

            On the other hand, you can pray read on.

            What is going on, these dudes are just simply rude. I guess it is easier this way for them.

            Reagrds,
            zzddrr

        • Alex

          I sell test charts on Ebay (alexresistors), the charts are made easy for anyone be able to test a lens.
          If you take a picture of the chart with a velvia 50 and then with a 12MP camera (same lens, same aperture) you will be able to see the difference.
          Compared to the 12MP DSLR file, you can see very thin details from the slide not visible on the DSLR picture.
          50MB sensor will be the maximun definition you can get from a 24×36 lens.
          So in 2 or 3 years, the DSLR will be mature.

          • [Ô]

            Alex, your tests are assuming the continuation of the Bayer pattern.

            If the imaging sensors were to start capturing more than one primary colour per photosite the MP required to match Velvia would drop considerably.

            This would change the resolution limits of all your lenses too.

            Of course it would be harder to market these in a world where the only thing some customers look at is the numbers.

            We are in for a very interesting few years. . .

          • zzddrr

            Thanks for the explanation. It is indeed a very interesting method.

          • Goose

            [Ô] – what is the practical difference between photosites which can see more than one wavelength of light at a time and quadrupling the number of photosites? (Ignore noise issues for the sake of argument.)

            Alex – I grok how you proved 12MP is not as high resolution as the film stock you shot – but how did you come up with the 50 number?

  • megafolie

    My guess is a D800 with a 18MP FX sensor with 1080p HD video. Someone over @ dpreview said that he thinks that no D700x would be ever released because the D3X sensor (which would be logically used in the much anticipated D700x) cannot do video. So a new sensor would have been developped by Nikon to allow more MP than D700 but with video capability. Just a guess.

    • Bubba Satori

      I hope you’re right. That would be a sweet spec. Don’t need 24MP but am not going pay for the D700s 12MP when a little more gets you the 5DIIs 21MP. A D800 is just what I would want. We’ll know in a couple of weeks.

    • bla

      And where would Nikon buy that sensor? Or did they mysteriously build a sensor factory themselves?

      DPReview forums, home of the armchair specialists.

      • megafolie

        Nikon of course does not have a sensor factory. But they have a bunch of engineers who are able to design a sensor just as they did with the D3 sensor. Then they outsource the production of it to Sony or whoever they want to. Who knows, they could even re-use and tweek that new sensor and put it in a future D4 in two years from now?

  • http://bonzo.com Bonzo

    oh yeah MORE wide ZOOMS please!!!

    We don’t have enough of them, we need 2 per year at lest

    16-XX, 17-XX, 18-XX, 18-XXX, how many do we need?!?

    • bla

      16-35 F/4 would probably be FX. So yeah, as a replacement for the 18-35 f/3.5-4.5 it would make sense.

      And hey, plenty people keep crying for “constant f/4 lenses” as if a constant aperture is the key to image quality. Nikon listened.

  • Carlos

    i dont understand…the press release says two REFLEX cameras…wouldnt that discard a P6000 replacement and a X1 clone?

  • Newfie

    Hey Folks. I was in Venice this week and saw a photographer taking pictures of a beautiful bride and groom. They were perfect…matching crimson and gold dress and tux. Funny thing is they were the only ones there from the wedding. The photographer had a assistant but that was it. Anyway…she was using camera that looked like a D3 in shape and size but there were no markings whatsoever. No Nikon on the prism, no markings at all. I’m sure it was a Nikon though and it was it was definitly a 80-200 2.8 lens attached…an older model though. Could I have stumpled on a new Nikon beta? Who knows? I’ll have to wait and see if the pictures of thie bride and groom show up in a future Nikon ad or brochure.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      And you did not take a picture of it?
      :)

      • f/2.8

        good thing he didn’t, or he would have been “Soprano’d” or, “Yakuza’d.”

        the lens was more than likely the 70-200 Mk2. psych!

    • Gordon

      Some pro’s like to mask of the brand and model for their camera’s so people don’t come up and ask them questions. It could be just something simple like that and nothing to do with Nikon.

      • matt2001

        Yea I agree with gordon, I don’t know about venice I’m sure it’s not bad there but in third world countries some thieves know nikon is good stuff and will go so far as to murder you for your equipment because it will feed them for like a year…

        Well I guess a 70-200mm is kind of hard to disguise as something not flashy but try your best right, be sure to get the white color model :P

  • Nikkorian

    Admin, for the Nikon AF-S 100-500mm, you cannot have a release probability of 50% for october and of 70% for 2010! That makes 120% which is not possible, since the lens can only be released once.

    Cheers

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      As mentioned above, I wanted to indicate that the probability will change over time – the info I got was for a Spring 2010 release. As other rumors before, the probability changes over time, now it is 50% and it will go up to 70% as we get closer to Spring 2010. If this is still confusing, I can change it so it totals 100%

      • Anonymous

        No, don’t change it–people just need to use their brains. Maybe you should add a page somewhere that spells out your rating system. Then you can just post links to that, and nobody will have any excuses. I think the probability system is fine as it is.

      • Nikkorian

        oh, ano, i have a very logical brain, thanks. NR, maybe ano is right about that page, because your system is against all intuition and standards. i still don’t really get it. do you imply, the 50% for oct release is valid for now, and the 70% becomes valid if october release is not fulfilled? in this case, correct probs would be 33.3% for oct, 46.7% for early next year and 20% for “not at all, or later”. well, don’t mind. not that important…

        • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

          This is what I had in mind when I started the rating system: imagine a 2 dimensional graph – on the one axis you have time and on the other you have probability. Let’s say the probability was 80% a month ago – that means 80% chance the product will be released, 20% chance the product will not be released. A month later, I get some more information and the probability goes up to 90% (based on the latest info) which means 90% chance of an official release, 10% chance that the product will not be released. Does this make more sense now? The probability should change as time passes because I get new rumors.

  • matt2001

    Man I really want that wide angle prime, maybe that 24mm f/1.4, about time right nikon?

    • f/2.8

      A 24mm f/1.4 would turn it into an exotic. I’d settle for a 24mm f/2.8 for $999.99.

      • matt2001

        For me though it seems that exotic is really what nikon is lacking in their lens lineup, they seem to be really into making things that make a quick buck. I have 2 lenses that overlap at 24mm f/2.8 but both leave me with the desire for more DOF control at “ultra” wide angle. I’ve had thoughts of a canon 5d mkII + 24mm f/1.4L II just for this application but after that 4K, I suspect nikon would finally release something like 24mm or 28mm f/1.4, leaving me to just bang my head on the wall….

      • bla

        You’re funny.

        24mm f/2.8 already exists. If you want to pay 1000 for that, you’re a total idiot. Check its price first, then talk.

        • f/2.8

          New 24mm. State of the art optics design. Ever heard about the prowness of the new crop of Nikon lenses such as the 14-24 and 24-70? Nano crystal coating, AF-S, G-type, better corner to corner sharpness, contrast and CA control.

          Keep using the old one idiot.

          • Soap

            G-type makes the new lenses better?
            ;)

  • rhlpetrus

    The Nikkormat was never small. Actually, it was larger than any of the entry-level N dslrs like the D40, D60. A nice “consumer” slr from Nikon, larger than the Pentax Spotmatic but smaller than the F line.

  • Gordon

    I’m sure the 2nd camera to be announce is bound to be another 12MP body, Nikon probably plan to milk another 5 years out of 12MP sensors. Based on past history, it took Nikon 3 years to release another 12MP body after the D2X and that was the D3, perhaps the plan is the same for the D3X sensor too?

    Nikon should look at sourcing sensors from Kodak maybe too and not be so tightly bound to Sony’s sensor division, it might give them greater scope to improve their sensors.

  • jose

    Why Nikon doesn’t build a 24~105 -2.8 VR ll uhh, uhh?

    • Adam

      erm, see the size of the 24-70? Now imagine it as bigger and heavier! That’s why :)

    • bla

      Same reason as to why the 12-500 f/1.2 never really emerged.

  • Alex G.

    I know for a fact that nikon officially does not consider the D700 line as a pro body but an advanced amateur one after talking to a rep the other day, so the ”2 pro bodies” theory does not necessarily stand

    • bla

      Strange, NPS program does include D300 and D700… So Nikon does regard them professional enough to be listed as professional tools.

      So far for your facts.

      • Alex G.

        hey i’m just quoting what Guy Authier said, the Montreal area Nikon rep. He said D300s was the DX pro camera and D3 and D3X were the full frame ones. D700 was considered as advanced amateur. We had a whole meeting about it. If nikon lists them differently well I dunno what to say about it.

  • Gary

    Nikon needs to get in the prosumer video dslr game with a D700s for the holiday season.

    A D3s will certainly do well with the professionals, who will buy any upgrade no matter what. But you can only sell so many, and ironically, it won’t matter that it’s the holiday season…those who want this camera will buy it, or in most cases, have companies buy it for them.

    But right now Nikon has no answer to the Canon 5dmkii and to allow Canon to have that field to itself for yet another holiday season is incomprehensible.

    At this point Nikon is also pressured on the video front by the new Canon 7d…in the video dept, the D300s does not keep up and is not seen as much of a competitor for video.

    Nikon needs a D700s out there…a good FF w/ video, preferably a range of options, like the 7D, and less expensive than a D3s will likely go for, for the prosumer crowd.

    Otherwise, they’ll miss out on a whole lot of sales, and more people will opt for Canon and stick with them.

    • matt2001

      I agree! I am getting impatient!! Canon’s dominating the market with the 5d mkII at such a good price. It’s very tempting even for me an all nikon user, my main issue is their ergonomics and weird button placement that I really dislike, plus they have a solid line of wide angle L primes for those willing to pay. When are you coming out with yours nikon?? Nikon really needs to step it up in these respects.

      I’ve wrote a letter to nikon corporate before about my feelings…I never sent it though, I thought they wouldn’t care to read it LOL. Hmm….but what if everyone sent a letter…..

    • Gordon

      If Nikon’s plan is to reduce market share, then they are going the right way about it. Each time they release a 12MP camera they become more irrelevant in comparison to their competitors. At least Canon and Sony are giving their potential buyers MP options, Nikon can only give us several different 12MP cameras or less and one very expensive 24MP pro body.

      Nikon at the moment is pressured both on the video front and megapixel front, I guess we’ll have to wait and see how well Nikon is anticipating movements in the market or if they think they’ve done enough. Maybe Nikon are about to knock our socks off with the fabled MX format camera.

      • zzddrr

        or with another 12MP beauty :-)

  • Clemi

    It is just a marketing-item why a 700s or 700x are not released and will not be releases in the future. If you would buy a 700x now , would you not be angry when some months later a D800 with 24 mp plus the monitor from the D5000 would come? You would not be willing to pay $ 3.500 again. Nikon would not sell any D800. That’s all. All interested customers will buy the D800 next year. But I need a new camera now in october!

    • bla

      Then buy one now in october, and stop second-guessing over which camera emerges in the future.

  • jbl

    I was hoping for a D700s/D700x.

    But the D3s might interesting depending on features/prices.

  • http://www.gedasg.lt Gedas

    Nikon D3s will be 100% I know that.

  • Lewis H

    WE NEED A D700X OR A D800 ! ! !

    • WoutK89

      I dont :-D

    • STJ

      Well I would like a D700s, no D700x, D800…

  • Vince

    I was just looking at Nikon Watch and came across an old posting from last year where “a very senior Nikon person from Japan” said “we would be seeing a mirrorless dslr “sooner than you think.”

    http://www.nikonwatch.com/2008/07/27/nikon-d4-mirrorless-viewfinder/

    hmm.. i’m really hoping that 2nd camera will be a GF1-like camera that can use F-mount lenses and covers up the sensor when the lens is unmounted! And give us almost-instant shutter release too!

    *anxiously awaiting with bated breath*

  • zen-tao

    Unfortunately photographers are in hands of Nikon company and his marketing schemes They seem to ignore our real necessities. They are developing gatchets ,point-an view cameras. The message is clear at this point:: you want 24mpx, purchase an D3x and forget bargains. They aren’t up to it. They won’t develop a new camera because it’s not expected to sell a large number of it. We are in crisis.

    Perhaps if Nikon lower the price of the D3x.. sorry, I overslept

  • Johannes

    The new camera will be the all new D9000, a D90 with the D700′s FX sensor. Probability: 100% :-D

  • http://sylvain-cherkaoui.blogspot.com sylvain

    I need a D700s camara now!

    • soap

      mmmm, dual card slots in my D700, tasty!

      Hard for me to justify the upgrade for just that – but I’d love it.

  • Lewis H

    please someone write to Nikon Corporation and tell them we all need a new D800 (or D700x at least), that’s incredible that Nikon do not release an “economic” 24mp FF with the 5D2 out there!

    • bla

      I don’t need it. At all.

    • Ennan

      why don’t you write?

  • Alex

    I found a D3x for $1500 !!!!!!
    Well, It was on Ebay 5 years from now, to bad time travel does not exist yet :o(

  • Clemi

    I think it is absolutely clear that a D700x will not come even I myself would prefer to hold it in my hand within the next minutes. The most of us also read what Ken Rockwell publishes. He has announced the D700x since several months. About two or three months ago he has taken it from the main menue (it is still in his archive). As he always has be a relieable source for information we can be shure that this is a sign that the D700x will not come – by the marketing reasons I have posted before. (I want to mention that Paul Hogan’s information the D700x would come earlier than exprected has been nonsence.)

    • WoutK89

      lol, Paul Hogan? :-P

      • Anonymous

        When was the last time KR had a reliable info about a new product? Never!

    • soap

      If you had read KR’s 700x page you would realize he was simply extrapolating the numbers based on Nikon’s previous release history- no insider information and no more likely to be correct than a weatherman who says “It was sunny yesterday, it was sunny today, therefore it will be sunny tomorrow.”

      While the linear extrapolation method can be interesting – it is near worthless considering the statistically insignificant number of pro DSLR bodies Nikon has released.

  • Waiting until ???

    No D700 x ?
    D3x >= 7000 € ?
    It’ time to sell my Nikon stuff and buy Sony….
    Yes, I know, Nikon jpegs are slightly better then Sony, but I never make jpeg…

    • Ennan

      build quality and handling is waaaaaaaaay better on Nikon.

  • jose

    I agreed with you, why to wait, when others are offer better stuff in better prices. I just need two lenses

  • matt2001

    that is true… that is true… thanks for putting into perspective. maybe if something doesn’t come out within the next 6 months, I’ll keep nikon but start buying canon also. I mean think about it……2.5K for a 21MPs 5dMKII and then 1.5K for an ultra wide angle prime that nikon refuses to make and just doesn’t have in their lens offers…I would expect Nikon to attempt to price their next “non-pro” FF >=21MPs at 3.5K or greater… If you do the math, it doesn’t add up unless Nikon changes… Right now the situation is: I can get about double the MPs on FF with canon than nikon FF for a few hundred bucks more….what???

    If they were coming out with something MX to knock our socks off, the marketing team would be complete idiots to not have the beat on the situation right now, that serious buyers like us on the forum are leaning towards either jumping ship or at least buying competitor’s products. If they are coming out with something they should make an official announcement about it so we can have hope!!! Because I’m starting to run out of that!

    • soap

      What do you consider an “ultra-wide angle prime”?
      the 14mm 2.8 is pretty wide, has its issues, but none more than the equivalent Canon.

      • matt2001

        soap, my bad maybe I mean wide and not ultra wide. I’m alway thinking about people portraits and I guess 24mm or 28mm f/1.4 on FF is pretty wide for that. I really like the look of sucking in a wide expanse of well defocused background and is especially striking if wide enough to include the entire subject while and not losing that dreamy quality. Nikon users are crippled in that ability right now unless they include less of their subject in the photo or sacrifice background context to maintain OOF quality and bokeh… :(

        I use both the 14-24mm and 24-70mm and for f/2.8 certainly either fit the bill, but a pro-level 24mm or 28mm f/1.4 prime for FF could go where neither of these can really go. Something like Canon’s 24mm f/1.4L II that I’ve been drooling over for a long time now.

        • zen-tao

          You ask too much for an wide lense. In my opinion the philósophy of wide angles are deep of field and perspective. It’s quite difficult to design a wide lens with a large aperture. almost impossible. I guess…

          • soap

            Oh, they’re hard to make, but he has a point, Canon has one, a good one, and an affordable one at that.

            I’m not so sure the “philosophy’ of wide lenses is deep depth of field so much as the “reality” of them is deep depth of field.

            A 24mm lens on FF @ f1.4 has a DoF of around 4.5 feel around a 10 foot away subject, compare that to right around 1 foot for a 50mm lens all else being equal and a 4 INCH DoF for 85mm all else being equal and you’ll see how nearly impossible it is to blur the background with wide angle lenses.

            Even more so that the “common” aperture for wide angles has been 2.8 (10 foot DoF @ 10′ @ 24mm FF) and you can see why people are so trained to instinctively think wide DoF when they think wide angle.

            (My 14mm @ 2.8 is sharp from 5 feet to infinity when @ 2.8 and focused at 10′ – thus, IMHO, why we don’t need an AFS version – there is no focusing to be done!) ;)
            (Not to say it doesn’t need better coatings – hint hint!)

  • zen-tao

    I would like to try that Canon lens but I don’t rely too much on his quality.

  • matt2001

    zen-tao try it at the camera store, I’ve found it works great…canon had to go through 2 iterations of 24mm f/1.4, I and II though, and I heard the first one was plagued with aberrations, but I’ve never tried it and they got it right the second time around. Do consider that if you try it though, you’ll probably want one too. :P

    I agree with soap deep depth of field is a reality in wide angle, but I would like to mention that one benefit to the wideness is that to loosely put an entire couple as a subject in the frame and have room for composition, you only need 4-5 feet at 24mm FF, so it buys you some more defocusing in the background (assuming background far away compared to camera-subject distance). Suddenly moving half closer to accommodate wider perspective of 24mm, you are now looking at loosely 1 foot of DOF and no longer 4′ anymore.

    • Soap

      Interesting. Am I reading you right in that you are breaking the old rule of thumb (paraphrased by me) “If the subjects feel they are at a comfortable distance from each other the composition will look loose, and it is only when you mush them closer together than their instincts tell them that the composition looks right”?
      (Portrait rule of thumb).

      But yea, you can get a workably thin portrait DoF @ 24/28 mm by getting up closer, something you tend to have less capability with when doing event – unless you want to BE the event!

      • matt2001

        When I said loose, I was saying that 24mm is wide for portrait so at 10 feet people would be small relative to the extents of the frame, so if in case desiring even less DoF, 4-5 feet would fit their bodies in comfortably on a vertical shot and give decent DoF without making the subject look crammed into the photo. Or to buy even more bokeh crop their bodies or they could be sat down, etc etc….but then heh yeah, I’m with ya on the getting pretty close to their faces part :P A lot of times I’ll shoot with a right angle adapter which helps, but really I’m not usually at 24mm. If I had f/1.4 to isolate my subjects from the background more at that focal length, I might try to be more often though.

        • Soap

          Cool, thanks for the details.

        • zen-tao

          I don’t think you will achieve a too much defocussin with a 24 mm. even with f.1.4. It will result a “soft focus” but you won’t really isolate the subject. Making an effect half full is like not doing it at all. I have a 50 mm. f:1.4 managing the composition is a little more complicated but the final effect is really good. It’s an affordable lens an I’ve widely recovered the money I paid for it.

  • Mark

    Boo!

    I need the new D700 to come in so I can decide if I get it or the current model?

    Oh well, back to waiting.

    • Alex

      I would wait until Xmas for a D700x.

  • Alex

    I think we will se a D700x before the end of the year, Nikon may want to get rid of his D700 before releasing the D700x.
    Even if the D700/D700x is not the number one seller in nikon DSLR, it’s important for Nikon’s image to stay competitive with other brand when it’ about high end cameras.
    Ferrari will not sell as many cars if they were not racing in formula one.

  • http://www.www.com Landscape Photo

    I’ll wait till the new year. If no official announcement yet made at this date, I’ll sell my D300 & get the 5D II without looking back again. Enough waiting ! It’s an easy move because I don’t have a FX lens. I’m not a fan, but familiar to Canon, having once used a 20D given for an assignment.

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