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Leaked Nikon roadmap poll

I received an email from someone that claims that the leaked Nikon 2009-2010 roadmap was a joke between friends. I have no way to verify this information - it could also be that this person did not realize the significance of this rumor and now is trying to cover it up. I don't know, but it will be interesesting to see what all of you think:

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  • NikoDoby

    If this is what the guys friends do to him I’d hate to meet his enemies!

  • NikoDoby

    Like I said in the other comments I’m blaming North Korean hackers!

    • Jeff

      North Korea does not exist. I’ll happily blame the Chinese though

  • rwpl

    Some of the products are just not logical. Also never before did so much info leaked from Nikon so I vote 100% fake.

    • Mikeg76

      Its a hell of a lot of work to be a joke. It seems so specific with some of the new tech.

      • TOR8472

        A lot of work for the faker? People spend endless hours here and on dpreview speculating, etc. I could have generated a similar list in less than 5 hours. Others spend hours photoshopping cameras to look like a “new” model. The type of person who would fake this would get countless more hours enjoyment reading everyone arguing whether it is true, plausible, fake, etc.

        Someone could also have inside info on the July August releases and then generated their own fake roadmap. It will be funny if the first ones are right and then everyone thinks the whole roadmap is accurate.

        • STJ

          Well that might just happen to be so…. But you’re right we’ll see…

  • Harry Angel

    I don’t know who gave you the tip to look at the Czech forum but maybe you should investigate that guy. Did he just happen to be surfing that forum the same day as the leaked roadmap post was made?

    Also is it a completely fresh roadmap, not mentioning the D5000 etc.

    If I found that info I wouldn’t have registered on a Czech forum, I would have used a much bigger one like DPreview.

  • Snafu

    I think the near term camera release info is likely correct or based on some internal info. The lens info looks very questionable. Hope the DX Coolpix is correct but if the release date is accurate I supsect I will have already bought the competing Canon/Samsung/Olympus/Pentax product.

  • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

    The amount of lenses makes me suspect.

    But other than that – if I understand correctly – it’s not “the source” that posted it on the Czech forum but “a friend”. If this friend is telling the truth – that it’s a 37 page document – then I thinkthat’s a bit too much effort for a hoax.
    But assuming that nobody else has seen the full 37 pages – god knows.

    • STJ

      The way it is written just seems very plausible. If I would fake something I would make a structured list (as opposed to the sporadic way it was listed first) and not put in details of not yet known technology. I would probably also not write that it’s an extract from a 37page dokument and immidiately claim that it is fake if I went through all the work of making such a list. I also think that “roadmap” is a wronk word for it; seems much more like it comes from a longer written detailed document of notes of future plans and ideas. I suspect that the near term stuff will be accurate and the long list of lenses and D4/D4x body launch times will move. Lets see – in any case the guy who wrote it did a hell of a job in my opinion and I couldn’t have pulled it off in five hours as someone else claims he could….

      • TOR8472

        I agree it is plausible, which is why everyone is talking about it. It is a good mix of expectations and surprises that make you think a faker wouldn’t come up with something that unbelievable. You need to stop thinking in terms of what you could or what you would do in analyzing this anonymous “leaker”. I probably couldn’t plausibly fake a D400 body in 50 hours of photoshopping (nor would I waste my time trying), but that doesn’t mean someone else couldn’t do it in less than 1 hour, or wouldn’t spend 200 hours perfecting their fabrication because fooling the world is such a rush to them. Lots of very different people in this wide world with very different ideas of what a good use of time is.

  • donde?

    2010 should probably see a D90 replacement… instead there’s D4X…
    And which company knows the exact specs of products they’ll produce one and a half year in advance?

    • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

      Maybe it’s just a Draft.

      • donde?

        Draft’s would contain even less detail…

    • eyrieowl

      I see people speculating that there should be a d90 replacement…why? Unless they are going to do a d90s, I don’t see what they would be replacing. Until there is a new DX sensor (read, a d400), I would not expect a d90 replacement. Think about it: it’s not about how long the d90 has been around, it’s about the trickle-down from the top end. The dXX models have almost always been around 1 year after the dXXX model. So unless there’s a d90s about 6 months after the d300s (smaller upgrade), I wouldn’t expect a d90 replacement until 1 year after the d400…and who knows for sure when that will be.

  • Neil

    I voted “Can’t Tell” but I’m very skeptical. The information is a little too specific which both speaks for it and against it as I’ve seen product roadmaps at the companies I’ve worked at before and know how many are put together for internal consumption.

    In theory it could also be a planted leak to find the source. Like what film companies do with scripts so they can find the mole who leaks info to the media about top secret film projects. So it could have been prepared but intentionally wrong so they could identify suspected moles.

  • We’reNotThatDumb…

    Everyone’s heard by now that someone posted a “leaked Nikon Roadmap for 2009-2010″. It’s not clear if it’s really true, but one of the strongest reasons to believe in its truth is the over-the-top efforts of one individual (cough cough Nikon spin control?) to discredit the leaked info. Check this out:
    http://www.dpreview.com/members/?User=heifihiehlie
    The same guy also posted here:
    http://nikonrumors.com/…e-digging-on-the-leaked-nikon-roadmap.aspx#comments
    Someone is going to a lot of extremely focused trouble to try to squash the rumor…

    • STJ

      And that is naturally what you want to do just a few hours after publishing a “fake” roadmap that you just wasted 3days on creating – right…. ;-)

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I got multiple emails from the same person asking me to remove those posts. He also posted multiple comments here on NikonRumors that this roadmap is fake. My point is that if this is fake, why would you worry so much? I think that probably there was an initial document that was real and they just added a bunch of garbage on top of it just for fun and now realized that somebody may be in trouble. Many details are too close to home to be a random joke and are exact match with previously reported rumors and some other do not make sense. Note also that the person went into details of every single product. If you want to create a Nikon roadmap joke, the initial product listing would be sufficient, right? In general people have similar behavior, so ask yourself if you want to create a Nikon road map for a joke, how it would look like and draw your own concussions. I think the 2009 prediction is real.

      • PHB

        Well that is called blowback in the intel world, You publish some rumor and eventually people repeat it back to you.

        The Russians invaded Afghanistan and destroyed their empire because of blowback. They had planted info that the President was really a CIA plant and then they picked up their own fabrication.

      • We’reNotThatDumb…

        I totally agree. There is no reason for someone to work so hard to backpedal if it’s just a joke.

        I think it’s real– which doesn’t mean Nikon won’t change things as part of the natural course of development. But I bet the leaked document is/was real at some point. We’ll know real soon– if by the fall none of the August or October predictions come to pass, then you can call me an idiot.

      • Quido

        What got lost in translation so far is that the specs for the D300s mention Vari-Angle LCD (“vyklopny”).
        As far as I remember this hasn’t been mentioned in any of the previous specs lists on Nikon Rumors. We only have 1 month of waiting before us to see if the movable LCD is true. If that’s the case, I think it’d make the whole specs list more belieavable.

        Another minor thing: D3000 says: “D-movie – not mentioned in specs”, meaning that D3000 won’t have video, as opposed to “not known”.

        Cheers from .cz

      • Mike O

        Mr. Admin, idk who these people are telling you to remove rumours, but last time I checked this is NikonRumors, not NikonFacts. This is about speculation and trying to cover new angles and tap into information from sometimes questionable sources.

        Please, continue posting whatever you can find. Its the user’s job to sift through and find what they like, you are not responsible for them not liking a post. In short, dont listen to these crybabies, you guys do a great job here and I enjoy reading whatever it is you find.

      • regular

        I think those people just dont want to be involved in something smelling fishy.

        If you make a bad joke about George Bush or about Wallmart, would you feel confortable with TV reporting your little joke as a fact and so on? You would certainly fear prosecutions, etc. … especially if you work in the same business.

  • Archer

    If that road map was true, Nikon must place lots of faith in the economy improving earlier than most other industrial companies out there.

  • shivas

    i seriously suspect it was a joke that was inspired by the D3000, D300s, and D700x leaks . . which are probably real, so they went a step further and expounded on it. . .if it is indeed real, I see a lot of plasticy lenses in our future, and I might consider Canon instead. . .

    • eyrieowl

      I’m wondering which of those lenses you think would be plasticy? The lowest spec lens looked to be the 17-65 or maybe the 24-135. Every other lens looked to be targeted at serious shooters and/or pros. I’m sure that they won’t be all-metal circa 1970 lenses, but unless you’re buying zeiss, those days are past.

    • STJ

      What’s wrong with plastic? Today you can but up to 60% (by volume) carbon fibres into plastic – guess what – it looks like plastic, but it is not the plastic used for coka-cola bottles!

  • Weston

    i definately vote no, but there’s shreds of truth, like the 300s and 700x, but after that is too far to speculate

  • Zoetmb

    There are probably a few items that are accurate (although possibly from coincidence or obviousness and not from any specific knowledge) and the rest is bogus.

    Time will tell…

    But by then we’ll be off on other rumors. One advantage of this being released, whether real or phony, is that Nikon can get to see the reaction to specific items, not that those who post on forums are representative of the real world (or even of themselves – someone who criticizes a lens or body may never have intended on buying it anyway no matter what the specs.)

  • http://www.bildskaparen.se Daniel

    The nextgen one digit camera from Nikon will have around the same amount of megapixels as the current x-flagship, like the last generation of D2X -> D3
    There’s no sense in even producing a D700x with 24MP if the nextgen D4 will only be 15MP.
    I think the technology leap will be sufficient to keep the pixel density while boosting dynamic range and ISO.

  • afterdarkernikon

    I think this is not real but I also think that there are some half truths about the roadmap and they rather inflated it as a joke.

    So my conclusion first parts are REAL but the rest are JOKES and they did not think of the consequences before making this JOKE.

  • shivas

    well if Nikon IS reading this, please consider an update to the following Primes:

    24 1.4G
    85 1.4 or 1.8G
    70-200 VR2
    24-135 or 150 VR2

    If needed, a 35 1.4G would be fine.

    I think the D4 being “only” 15 or 16mp is believable, as the increase in FPS/noise control/high iso abilities is FAR more appreciated than a slow, 24mp, high ISO cranking sensor. . .the D4x will probably address that more so than anything and refine the 24mp. . ..

    I see the D3 being like the Canon Mark III that has the 10fps/1.3x crop/10mp sensor. . .standard issue for any photojournalist. . .

  • Adam

    i say busted. one thing that threw it. D3x shoots at 5 fps at full res. If i read that correctly, the spec said d700x shoots at 5 fps standard and 6.5 with grip at full res. no possible way that nikon makes a semi pro shoot faster than a flagship with the same sensor of the same generation.

  • NikoDoby

    Chase Jarvis, the guy who helped introduce the D90 for Nikon, commented on his blog about the NIKON ROAD MAP leak. He likes what he sees but claims to know nothing.

    • Jeff

      Chase does not strike me as particularly technically competent. at all, read his staff list, it seems to me that his assistant sets it all up and chase presses the shutter, then the digital tech spends 4 hours in post for each shot….

  • http://seanneedhamphotography.com SeanN

    Some of this ‘road-map’ seems a little unfeasible, the D700x being the prime one, as if that did happen, it would be slap bang in between the current D3 and the D3x…

    However, other things on here are in the right context and timeline. It makes perfect sense to have the D4 introduced then, as well as some of the longer lenses, World Cup… Though there will probably be some released to a select group of photographers before then to get a feel for the hardware before the public release (most likely front line football photographers).
    Timeline wise, it feels right to have a D4 and a D400 released around the beginning of May next year.

    My feeling is that this has been a ‘proposed’ roadmap, and will be slimmed down, or modified due to economic and market factors.

  • Phoggy

    The only reason why I would think there is any truth to it is because I’m quite doubtful someone would spend so much time just making something like this up. It’s too detailed and specific to be ignored.

    • Ziggy2

      “I’m quite doubtful someone would spend so much time just making something like this up. It’s too detailed and specific to be ignored”

      Really??? Look at the time people spend analyzing the details. Still don’t believe someone would do it for fun??? Lots of us obviously love this stuff.

  • http://jtra.cz jtra

    I think the rumor is more likely true. Czech is my native language so there is no language barrier for me to read behind the lines.

    Context: Somebody (person A – I will use letters to clarify pronouns) got the spec because he (A) is in company maintaining Nikon’s infrastructure. He send it to a friend (person B). Friend did not keep the mouth silent and posted it to local forum, only some excerpts claiming that they come from 37 page document. He (B) said that he (B) thinks that the document might be joke but looks like true as it is very detailed to be created just for fun. Somebody on forum asked if whole document could be published. He (B) responded that probably not as it contains names of people. Somebody asked again if it would be possible to get document with some delicate parts blacked-out or omitted. He (B) responded that he will ask his source (A) if it would be a problem. Then his (B) next post was: I (B) asked and got email from the source (A) which told: I (B) am too dumb that he (B) has posted it; the rumor is not true it is a joke; I (A) do not have access to delicate information anyway. This was his (B) last post in the thread.

    Points why I think it is true:

    1. The rumor is too specific and too long to be created just for fun.

    2. There are some very specific things which I think were not published before and can be verified shortly. For example: “AF MultiCAM 380″ in D3000 has not been rumored before, lenses that have “contract detect enhance AF-S mode” which probably goes with “Enhanced contrast detect AF ” in D300s but not in D3000. “dNEF” file format was not rumored before too.

    3. The story itself is quite funny. The end seems like the source (A) wanted to downplay the issue – but it was too late.

    4. A view on products from technical point makes sense to me. Some lenses in 2010 are strange but f/2 zoom lens is possible with limited zoom factor and DX image area, also it could be nice portrait lens. The quick double exposure to expand dynamic range is quite good idea. You can capture two images, the first with normal time, the second with 1/16 of the previous time to capture highlights completely gaining 4 EV in dynamic range. The important point is that second capture must follow quickly so that scene does not change much. There is no need for AF or mirror-down in between. Software can guess how much the scene changed and if it decides locally that it did not, it can take highlights from the second picture. Did you noticed mentioned dNEF is on cameras with this double-exposure mode, this makes sense to me – this feature needs new format.

    5. A third company that maintains Nikon’s infrastructure is common. Many services are outsourced in such companies. Nikon is no exception – did you heard that Nikon firmware will be done by Fujitsu? That is another case of outsourcing.

    6. 85/1.4 AF-S. There is no VR. Many people would like that, but as Thom Hogan IIRC mentioned in some dpreview thread, adding VR to some lens designs is not possible. Predecessor is very successful so design will not change probably, only AF-S. If the rumor would be by some one uninformed, he would probably add VR.

    7. A lot of DX lenses. While most people who do rumors want pro FX glass, the DX market is quite big. Also note D4 with viewfinder loupe for DX crop.

    8. If the document is joke as (A) has claimed, (B) would had no problem providing it in full form.

    Points that make me think it is false and some counter-points:

    1. D4 is too soon. But Nikon probably developed the technology despite the economy downturn. Now it needs to introduce it to market sooner as this is only way to sustain income even making some compromises like no big increase in resolution. Bigger increase would slow down the camera – hardware is not yet so advanced. D700x or D4 will make decision problem for some customers but they can choose if they want high speed or high resolution. Anyway what is the point of too many megapixels because image blurry due to movement or lens imperfections. Also Canon already has high-megapixel fullframe camera – 5DmkII, so Nikon needs to speed up usual 4 year cycle for Dx bodies.

    2. “Multi-CAM DX 4500: 61-point” in D4. Why 61? is that needed? Perhaps it will cover bigger part of image – FX users often complain that AF points are too much in center.

    3. No code names. Engineers use them, but these are marketing names. These are probably already prototyped cameras and lenses. Glass optical elements for lenses take long time to make so they already started most likely for this year lenses.

    4. No D90 replacement. But D90 is successful camera, it does not need to be replaced as soon.

    5. No flashes. Could be omitted by the person that posted to forum. Nikon flashes are already excellent.

    6. D700x seems to have too fast framerate. Technology advanced, but the frame rate is faster than D3x which is quite strange. Also there will not be D700x upgrade soon.

    7. P1DX has VR in sensor??? I would like that in Nikon DSLR too.

    8. Why “AF-S DX Nikkor 17-65mm f/3.2-4G ED VR” and later “AF-S DX Nikkor 17-60mm f/2.8G VR “? Probably the first is to replace 18-55VR. It will be advanced consumer lens just better than current 18-55VR. The second will be profesional, an improvement of 17-55/2.8.

    9. “AF-S Nikkor 14-28mm f/3.5-4.5G ED” Why? There is already excellent 14-24/2.8. Probably price, and perhaps filters.

    10. D400 soon after D300s? But D300s are small improvement only anyway.

    11. Too many lenses. Nikon historically released fewer lenses per year. But it was often claimed that Canon is better because of bigger lens selection. This might be Nikon’s reaction.

    12. Thom Hogan thinks that the name of CAM380 AF module means that it has smaller focusing point than the ones in D40? 7 focus points are claimed. I do not know naming convetions, but such exceptions are possible. Nikon’s DSLR numbering is not completely logical too.

    13. New metering sensor introduced in D300s first before D4?

    14. No 17mm PC-E or similar to compete with Canon? It takes time to design, Canon’s is relatively new.

    14. Technical possibility and business sense of the rumor does not make it true.

    Also some long term plans can be changed.

    • Mike O

      great points. thank you very much for that post! when I pick up my d3000 I might not get the kit lens, if its to be replaced ;)

    • NikoDoby

      Thanks for such a detailed break down jtra. You make some very valid points.

    • Enver John

      The story is the fiction. No 37 pages document exists and person B could not show it. Do you want the proof the message is the fiction? Here it is: find nikon.com Web, find U.K., products, D5000 and D300 and the specifications. And compare it with the fake roadmap. You will see the same words, the some sentences with small changes. You will see the source of the fiction. One person read the Nikon Web and copy it into the rumor. Why was written the nonsense 17-65mm f/3.2-4 ? 4th August is the date from other rumors, D300s and D3000 are possible cameras, so the author had to add one lens which sure will not exist !!! The rumor had to be only the joke and if the first part would be the true, everyone would believe it. 17-65mm f/3.2-4 is the safety that it is 100% false .

      • Anonymous

        Even John,

        You are making a very serious effort trying to disprove this roadmap all over the web. I agree with NRAdmin — the work you’re doing casts doubt that the information is fake. I mean, who would bother with such a futile exercise as going around the web trying to bottle up a rumor if it were all fake?

        Sounds fishy….

      • http://jtra.cz jtra

        Enver John: I think that 17-65mm f/3.2-4 DX VR makes excellent sense. It is better lens for those who don’t need longer range. It can be surely better than current 18-55/3.5-5.6 DX VR. A full stop on longer end better. It is worse in aperture than current pro lens 17-55/2.8 DX, but once you shoot at a bit closed aperture you will be happy that it has VR which the current pro lens does not have. It will be fine choice for many people.

        • http://jtra.cz jtra

          BTW, Sigma makes 17-70/2.8-4 (no stabilization) so that validates the lens parameters even more. Anyway we will see soon.

          • http://jtra.cz jtra

            Hm, the Sigma is not 2.8-4 but 2.8-4.5.
            I remembered it wrong. So it is not as similar. The rumored 17-65/3.2-4 is to have 72mm filter thread. The Sigma has 72mm too. Current pro lens 17-55/2.8 has 77mm.

    • STJ

      He he! These are exactly the points I noted as well – just much better written. Thanks for sharing your ideas jtra! In case this stuff is real several people will try to cover it up for sure. On dpreview they seems to have been somewhat successful…

  • David N

    Looks like my wish list. That’s why I think it’s bogus.

    • Anonymous

      Exactly!

  • Legsvan

    Where is E-P1and GH1 of Nikon?

  • Nau

    the only issue I have with it, its not presented as Nikon would… aka very unprofessional

  • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

    One thing I thought of today – why would such a sensitive document (if it’s true) be in Czech ?

    Such a document wouldn’t get spread around too much because of it’s sensitivity so I would expect it would be limited distribution – and so most likely to be in Japanese or English.

    • http://jtra.cz jtra

      It was not. It was in English originally. The guy on the Czech forum has translated it to Czech. He did not want to publish it fully as there were some delicate information like names of people.

      • http://www.dafyddowen.com Daf

        Ah. gotcha. Thanks.

  • Lukas

    The roadmap is a joke. It is written in the source discussion few posts below by the autor. I can read Czech so I know what there is…

  • Anonymous

    Actually the roadmap can’t be true as there is no mention of Nikon MX format as all, must be fake :D

  • Adam123

    If it was a joke between friends, why would he mention that now? What would be the incentive? Rather, you’d expect him to be getting a kick out of all the fuss he’s created. It’s probably real. But we’ll find out soon enough!

  • http://www.www.com Landscape Photo

    D700x kitted with 24-135mm VR… How about the lens performance? Nikon cannot be stupid; they know the sensor’s demands better than anyone Price? I’ll buy it the day available, if sold below $5000.

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