“Ricoh’s net profit fell by almost 94%”

Dream on Nikon.

“The Federal Reserve has taken a number of steps to help markets return to more orderly functioning and to foster its economic objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Broadly, the Federal Reserve’s response has followed two tracks: efforts to improve market liquidity and functioning and the pursuit of our macroeconomic objectives through monetary policy. ”

“Outside the United States, however, economic activity in our major trading partners has continued to expand vigorously. U.S. exports will likely continue to grow at a healthy pace in coming quarters, providing some impetus to the domestic economy.”

As an aside, ever wonder why Chairman Bernanke would be present at:
The Bilderberg Meeting at the Westfields Marriott Hotel, Chantilly, VA, June 6-8, 2008?

http://cryptome.com/bilderberg08/bilderberg08.htm

Anyhow, back to Nikon’s predictions of increasing revenue and profit. Another news article today should shed more light on the quality of Nikon’s forecast:

U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks, Marking Worst Recession in 50 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeLS30YslYd8

I believe that the USA is the largest market for Nikon. Now if Japanese Exports have dropped between 40-50% (using their official Japanese Govt figures) and the USA is in worst recession in 50 years, I’m pretty sure that Americans aren’t rushing out, to say Ritz, to buy more Nikon camera equipment.

Even wealthy American are having their own troubles – high end pawn shops in Beverly Hills seeing huge increase of rather expensive items being pawned to get cash. So I would assume that wealthy Americans are also not rushing out to buy large quantities of Nikon’s new camera gear.

Nikon expects “higher revenue and profits”. For that to happen, then their sales must also increase. But export buyers are drying up. Domestic Japanese sales are drying up. Where is Nikon going to find all those new buyers so they can have increases revenue and profits?

Seems that Nikon’s way to try to increase sales lately has been to increase prices. Marketing 101 says that increasing prices will result in lower sales. But Nikon says they will have higher revenue and profits. Time will tell, I guess.

Nikon does not have deep pockets like Canon or Sony. Wonder which one will buy Nikon in the next year or two.

Before you blast me, this is the same board that thought I was foolish for saying the US Dollar would remain strong, said that the Euro was a stronger currency and that the drop in non-US and Japanese currencies was temporary. And, at least we don’t hold managers hostage when we have a workplace dispute.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at4NSsUqNjrI

There is so much more:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA4t0jX1CSsU

“Japan Stocks Slump on Earnings Outlook, Yen; Nippon Steel Falls

April 28 (Bloomberg) — Japanese stocks slumped, sending the Topix index to its biggest drop this month, on growing doubts corporate earnings will recover this year and as the stronger yen diminished the value of overseas revenue. ”

So I’d take the above forecast with a grain of salt. Save your money – there will be many Nikon bargains in fall of 2010. Exports dropping over 40% and Nikon forecasting higher revenue and profits. Japanese domestic sales are also collapsing. So who is left to do the buying so that revenues and profits will be higher. Burning tons of cash by bringing out new models when Japanese exports are dropping over 40% also makes as much sense as forecasting higher revenues and profits.

i’d rather pay higher prices than to watch them slip back behind canon again for years.
-peter