I have absolute zero insight into the management quality of Nikon, however, based on what I am seeing, it is questionable. At least from my perspective.

Nice job Zoe on the analysis.

I agree (who couldn’t).

BUT we have to see the tremendous growth Nikon lens production had over the Fiscal Years:
1997; 890.000
1998: 1.000.000
1999: 970.000
2000: 980.000
2001: 1.080.000
2002: 1.200.000
2003: 1.230.000
2004: 1.230.000
2005: 1.500.000
2006: 2.020.000
2007: 2.640.000
2008: 4.450.000
2009: 4.050.000 First three quarters of Fiscal Year 2008
………..4.600.000 expected, so 550.000 for the current quarter expected, estimate down from earlier expected 4.900.000 Last quarter in calendar year 2008 was 1.420.000 lenses. That is as nearly as many as in the whole FY 2005!

I like my 50-150 2.8, since I’ll stay with DX anyway. It’s a great lens. Solid as rock, lightweight, fast AF, and nice bokeh. I hope an OS version of this one will come some day.

Furthermore, Nikon continuously leaves money on the table by not keeping equipment in stock, especially lenses. And there has been no improvement in this regard post-Olympics or even because of the recession. In the U.S., Nikon gave priority to the big-box stores, which was a critical mistake because (like Circuit City), they’re failing and because they carry only a very few models anyway.

Right now at B&H, out of 54 current Nikon lens models, 12 (22%) are out of stock. And 11 out of those 12 are also out of stock at J&R, implying that this is a Nikon problem, not a retailer ordering issue. And 6 out of the 22 (27%) lenses that sell for over $1000 are out of stock. Not that I’m in the market for one, but I don’t think they’ve every had a 600 AF-S. They only recently have managed to get the 400 and 500 and the 400 was supposedly released in November of ’07 and the 500 and 600 in May of ’08. When you can’t keep your pro lenses in stock, you’re turning away business from pro photographers who even in a recession are going to be your best customers. That’s a recipe for disaster.

I know Canon is much bigger company than Nikon, but out of 61 currently sold lenses (includes some discontinued models, but there’s still stock on them), only 7 (11%) are out of stock.

Pundits and economists say that one of their fears is deflation because in a deflationary economy, consumers defer purchases while prices come down. I think the deflationary fears are bogus considering how Japanese companies are all raising prices to make up for the currency conversion losses. But if they’re correct, I think that as soon as consumers (at least the still-employed consumers who can pay the mortgages) see that prices are not falling, they’ll start purchasing again. Of course any company in which a 5% difference in sales is going to make a big difference is still going to be in trouble.

A 10-20/2,8 (which is for FX) will be quite a beast – judging from the current 10-20/4-5.6 it will be big, heavy and pricey, but surely it will find a lot of buyers if Sigma can deliver in terms of quality (and of course price, too)..