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Jeff-c has spoken again

On the dpreview discussion "When will the Nikon 24 mega sensor camera come out", Jeff-c wrote today:

"A high pixel count pro body in 135 format, about 45 days to go for more details. :-)"

This would be the second source that talks about a new camera being released in December 2008, unless he means that he will just have more info in 45 days.

Jeff-c is known to have advanced knowledge about upcoming Nikon products and he was right many times before (I could not find a case where he was not correct, please send me a link if you find one).

Thanks Cap. Kirk!

Update: OK, I will dig in the dpreview history of jeff-c:

  • On August 8th 2008, he said "Aug. 27th. That's all I can say and it's not a second information. :-)". D90 was released on August 27th - CORRECT (source).
  • July 2007: "Two new cameras - August announcement" - Nikon D3 and D300 were released in August 2007 - CORRECT (source).
  • On April 1st (or May 30th) he wrote about a new AF-S 50mm f/1.2G lens - this was probably a joke, or he was talking about the AF-S 50mm f/1.4G.

A reader was able to find much more detailed prediction history from jeff-c (thanks John):

"jeff-c has been wrong a few times. However, some of his predictions are right on the mark and he was the first one to speak out with accurate information. For example two months prior to Canon launching 10D he posted here:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1019&message=4048422

Nikon F6: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=9737711

Nikon D50 and D100 replacement. Although the D100 replacement didn’t materialize: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=12436327

D200 spec’s: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=14809860

Someone attributed the famous D200 spy photo to him but he never admits or denies it: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=15570415

The biggest flop for him is the quasi-FF post, although he didn’t say this 1.13x sensor is coming. It seems more of his opinion than a rumor: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=17335390

Nikon D300, note that the thread titled two DSLR’s coming but he only posted a D200 replacement ad photo. We all know now D3 and D300 were announced together: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=24110549

Someone posted a D700 leak, it seems jeff knows about it but he confirmed it in a weird way of posting: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=28325244

From his posting history at dpreview.com it seems he is getting more cautious when revealing upcoming products, perhaps his identity is known to the parties involved and he is taking different approach without jeopardizing his sources."

More jeff-c history:

D2Xs
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=18110686

D70
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1034&message=5985223

D50/D70s
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=12436327

D200
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=14809860

D80
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=19267365

D40x
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1034&message=22252337

D3/D300
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=24110549

D700
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=28325244

D90
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=28888307

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  • jake-94

    why is everyone so giddy about resolution? I would rather nikon gave us a six megapixel camera with awesome tonal range and noise-free 6-25600 ISO instead of a crappy sensor thats got 3oo million pixels but cant reproduce natural colours and gives way too much noise. IM NOT SAYING THAT NIKON’S SENSORS ARE BAD, I KNOW IT LOOKS THAT WAY, BUT IM MERELY GIVING EXAMPLES.. EVERY NIKON IVE EVER USED WAS BRILLIANT..

    • Bob Agens

      Because some people need it for the type of work they do. Not everybody takes pictures to show on web forums you know… Some do it for living, and it sometimes means big and perfect prints..

      • Nikkorian

        hmmm, but MOST people don’t. would be nice if nikon develeoped for the mass market what the mass market wants and for the pro’s what the pro’s want.

        and since moste people publish online or on letter size prints (max), it would be nice to have all the pro functionality with a QUALITY 8 to 12 mp sensor, i.e. wide dynamic range and high-iso’s and that within a crop-sensor to keep size and weight low for the non-pro.

        I think the d300 goes in that direction anyway! but surely I would not like to see any higher pixel count in the d400!

      • Douglas

        if i have said it once i have said it a hundred times… even professionals arent making billboard sized prints anymore! all of that is done via interpolation going through major image editing programs! and even when professionals where making Freeway Billboard images, 5-8 years ago they where using 3-4mp camera’s! people who keep chanting “more megapixels!” are simply LAZY and dont want to bother with doing the work that it takes to produce a good image that size, and image quality of those sizes has suffered for it!

        • Anonymous

          Professionals most definitely DO want it; why would the 1ds Mark III be a success otherwise? Secondly, this is a 135 size sensor; as such, it can be considered nearer the range of Hassleblads, Leafs and, most importantly, Leica’s S2. The people that are buying these cameras want the ultimate image quality, both in megapixels and in tonal quality. ISO range is not as important here; if it were, they would get a D3. There is huge market potential in this sector, and one that Nikon has not touched; it is a market for the pros who do need to print big. There is a reason for using medium and large format in film photography, vs. 35mm – and that is ultimate image quality. You cannot ever describe them as lazy; anybody who uses such a camera has to put way more effort into getting a photo nearly right than using a D3, but the final outcome will be better.

          Separately, while I doubt the noise levels will be good on this thing, technically, a 24mp camera downrezzed to 12mp should have better noise characteristics than a 12mp camera with larger photosites. Compare, for example, you D40 sensor with an equivalent crop from a point and shoot camera (i.e. crop your photo down to the sensor size), while using an 18mm lens (in actual terms, therefore telephoto for compact, wide for D40), and you will have better quality in the compact in night scenes.

        • Anonymous

          This is such utter nonsense. What kind of interpolation will make a 12Mp portrait shot look like a scan from 4×5″ film? I guess Hasselblad just went to 50Mp because it looks good on paper.

          • Douglas

            First off, Hassy Increased Physical Sensor Size to increase MP. NOT shrink photosites to pack 50mp into a 35mm format! and i dont care how good technology gets, it would defy the laws of Physics for any 35mm size sensor to capture the detail that a 4×5 size sensor…

            • Anonymous

              Hassleblads are terrible at high ISOs…

            • Anonymous

              Yes, it would, and that’s not what Nikon are trying to do; their including MORE megapixels, not something ridiculous. Small photosites don’t necessarily mean that the quality of each pixel is bad.

        • Lars

          Actually, a billboard is less demanding than a magazine cover – you never examine it up close. Try floor to ceiling wall prints in a restaurant, in that situation even a 60 megapixel Hassy isnt enough.

        • Bob Agens

          i must be crazy then. And also my professional fellows who pay up to $40.000 for a MF back. Maybe we are just stupid and as you say we could have the same quality interpolating a 4mp image.

          • Douglas

            your confusing increased MP with increased Physical size!

            • Bob Agens

              No i’m not. Both things help. When you don’t need great high ISO, it’s possible do put more pixels in the same sensor size. Come on, go to dpreview and compare any 12MP or less with the Canon 1DS MKIII. There is a lot more detail in 21mp!
              My problem with MF (4×5 is Large Format Film, not digital) digicams like Hassels or Phase Ones is not only price. The main issue is that for $20.000+ you get early 90′s AF performance, Seconds/Frame instead of frame/seconds and terrible quality above ISO 400.
              That is why i want a high MP Nikon so much. And 24MP can fit perfectly in a 35mm sensor. If Canon can put 21 with great quality, so can Nikon.

        • Bob Agens

          What professionals are you talking about anyway? Are you really saying that we ask for more than 12 megapixels because we are to lazy to interpolate? Are you on drugs???!?!?!?!

    • Different needs

      Camera’s are just like vehicles. Some people need one size, some others.

      Why would you think all people need the same vehicle? Different people need different sizes and classes of cars, vans or trucks.

      If this is accepted in the automotive industry why won’t people accept this in the camera industry?

      It seems that so many people want to tell me what I don’t need. Why can’t I be allowed to make my own choices without negative comments that I don’t need something just because someone else doesn’t?

      Suppose that I decided that you didn’t need trousers and you needed ballet dresses and told you that is all anyone could make for you and that is what you had to buy because that is all you needed. I somehow don’t think you would be too happy with that.

      I would never dare to tell you what you need and what you don’t need. My needs are obviously not the same as yours.

      I am glad that manufacturers don’t listen to what people with narrow opinions have to say. If they did we would have one camera and that would be it. This is because that is what the manufactuerer told us we needed. Personally, I like choice.

      • Bob Agens

        Agree!! If only those “nobody needs more mp” people would just buy a D700 and go take pictures of their children…

        • Douglas

          i wish i could afford the $40,000 dollar MF camera’s! or even the $10,000 Mamiya 645 AFD with the Digital Back! HELL! i wish i could afford a Fricken D700! No, im using a D200 with a Nikkor 24-85 F/2.8-4… i wish i could bloody afford a F***in iPod! you people who talk about throwing money around like this make me sick!

          • Alex

            Dougie boy, relax, some people do this for a living, their cameras are their business, hence the big expenses. Most people who just need a camera to take their little shots with don’t go out and buy a D700 or a Hasselblad. Professionals aren’t just “throwing money around” as you said. If you want to yell at a soccer mom who buys a D700 and a 70-200 VR to shoot her little kids at a game then go ahead I don’t object to it. I won’t because if people have the money…then I don’t see why they shouldn’t spend it. By the way…are you happy with your D200? I love mine. I’ve heard good things about the 24-85 as well. If both are producing great images for you than kudos to you and your eye!

            • Alex

              P.S. Douglas…I don’t have an ipod either! I was worried I was the only one left. And just for the record, the D200 and D300 I invested in along with all my pro lenses could easily buy me…eh…31.117 8GB iPod Touch’s, 123.18 2 GB iPod Shuffle’s, or 4.252 Macbook Pro’s. I’ve started shooting professionally though so I can make a little money on the side while I’m at college racking up debt, hence the big camera expenses. Cheers mate!

            • Douglas

              i AM a professional photographer… i have been shooting for almost 10 years, Nikon for 7 of them. i went to school at Brooks Institute of Photography in Santa Barbara, CA. (and sadly i have learned more about equiptment since i left the school than i learned while i was there). problem becomes, i live in Southern California, San Diego to be exact. a market that is FLOODED with photographers (many of whom did just as i said above and go buy the most expencive camera they can afford without knowing the difference between aperture and image stabalization) and it becomes VERY difficult to find work… i barely get by shooting for some Club Promoters and shooting for $100/sporting event for SDSU Aztecs. im reciently getting intrested in Portrature, but sadly (as im sure many of you can tell from my posts here) im not terribly good with people… so it becomes difficult to find models, let alone models willing to pay their photographer or Clients willing to pay what my time and experience are worth…

          • Different needs

            Hi Douglas, I am very sorry that business is not going too well right now. I truly am. The flooding of the market, all markets, today it seems is a fact of life.

            You do have good equipment. I don’t think anyone will say that a D200 is bad. It is very good. That is not to say that the photography world has reached it’s zenith with the D200. Technology changes daily. We don’t have to update our equipment daily, no one can but at the same time we should not knock others that can and do. Like I said earlier different photographers have different needs just as different people do.

            About your post relating to not being good with people, even before I read that this morning I was thinking last night after my last reply, you really do need help. Just try to calm down and not be judgmental about those whose needs are not the same as yours. I have known people who seem to have the same demeanor as you, they tend to have heart attacks and die, Young! I hope for you sake you can find a center that allows you to get along with people as you put it. This may also help you with the networking you need to help your business grow.

            I would much rather say, hey I just worked with this guy that was great and he gets along with people. I was nervous and he took the time to work with me and made me feel calm about the shoot, he is great.

            If you invest your time working with people like that the $40,000 Hasselblad you were talking may come sooner than you think. Please for your sake calm down.

            Likewise in forums like this we are here to talk about the cutting edge of hardware and discuss issues. By posting calmly and getting along as you say, people are much more open to helping you and answering your posts intelligently instead of replying to rants.

            I truly hope your business improves. In this business it is just as important to get along with people and make them feel comfortable being with you as the hardware you use. Blessings.

            • Bob Agens

              I work in Brazil. That means i pay 3 times more for the equipment and get payed a lot less for my work. I understand your problem. That is why a high MP Nikon would be great.
              And about that problem with people, I was terrible also. Photography made me better at this. As soon as I got my first clients i had no choice but to improve my people skills. Just don’t let this prevent you from accepting challenges. They will force you to get better at this.

  • rtl

    Jeff-c did predict an inexpensive 50mm f1.2G. on March 30th. This was slightly off the mark.

    http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1030&message=27372628&changemode=1

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      Thanks – I could not find the direct link, but I believe you. I guess jeff-s is more accurate in predicting scheduled release dates, not exact products.

    • Dave

      If you read that post, you’ll know what it’s about: April 1st, f1.2, inexpensive.
      Now do you still take it seriously?

  • http://www.williamchuttonjr.com William

    I don’t need more MPs.

    All I want is more dynamic range and less susceptibility to sensor bloom.

  • Lawfarm

    Jeff-C has been wrong before. For example, the big August 27 announcement he ‘forecast’ on dpreview…

    http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/readflat.asp?forum=1021&thread=28887967&page=1

    Didn’t happen.

    • Anonymous

      The jeff-c guy obviously has no insider knowledge. I don’t know how some people think it’s otherwise.

    • John

      D90 announced on Aug. 27th.

  • Anonymous

    You make a statement “Jeff-c is known to have advanced knowledge about upcoming Nikon products and he was right many times before”. Who makes a statement has to prove it – it’s very bad style to try to make those who don’t believe it to prove you are wrong “(I could not find a case where he was not correct, please send me a link if you find one).” so again, you have to prove it. So where is the proof?

    And NO, I don’t say much about your brazeness to link to a listing of 1860 posts by that guy to dig through to check…

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      I found few examples of jeff-c predictions from the past and I updated the post. I will find some more. Now you know why I made the above statement.

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  • http://www.youtube.com/Lilkiwiguy87 cameron

    don’t need more megapixels, just needs a camera that can drop the ISO from ISO 100 to ISO 3, 6, 12, 24, and 50. that equals to noise-free 8 hours exposure for the star trails :)

  • Pablov

    I don’t know the release date, but I’m sure that new released Nikon DSLRs will have more MP… the market demands it, and like it or not Nikon is a company that needs sales to survive.

    With D90 to D3 at 12MP, the only choice (if any) for another 12MP sensor is at the bottom line of DSLRs, not the middle or high end. It wouldn’t have sense ffrom the business-perspective, that tells me the common sense, but I could be wrong (although I could bet I’m not)

    DSLRs are always a balance between resolution and performance.
    And for many tasks the pixel count Counts, although many people would like less pixels and better noise and DR. I guess Nikon have made it with the D3/D700.

    I also hope the new FX cameras have the same good Noise levels and DR as D3/D700, but That is a technological barrier, and I’m not sure if Nikon can do it today.
    I hope they can

    Let’s see if something happens in November, maybe an announcment …

  • Douglas

    personally i doubt that even if this information is accurate, that it is a release date. something like that would probably have to be announced about now or even back at Photokina like the 5DMkII. if anything it is just an announcement, and i still doubt that because it is a TERRIBLE time for an announcement right before christmas! if Nikon announced a high end D300/700 style body then, it would LITERALLY halt sales of the current models for the holiday season when Nikon needs the sales to take off, especially after a particularly bad year in sales due to what is becoming a WORLD WIDE bad economical situation!

    • Anonymous

      No, this camera would be far more expensive than even the D3, due to its large sensor. Have a look for the “BIG” events that have been reported by Nikon Rumors, which have pointed towards a February date for the past several months; it is aimed for the pro crowd, and this particular event is a wedding photography one.

  • John L

    Just to clarify, 135 format is just another way of saying 35mm = FX, right? Or not?

    • Anonymous

      Use the Google, Luke!

  • tonashideska

    I was in Yodobashi Camera last week, and when I asked my friends there about the D3X, they just laughed.

  • Bill

    I think we will see the D3X sooner, announcment in Nov, available this year. Just two or three weks from now. Much better 24mp sensor than the A900.

    • Michael

      I thought there was supposed to be an announcement in November. It was originally set for October and the next day changed to November (I forget the exact dates). I wonder if this means it will be announced in November and shipped (we all hope) in December? That would be great!

  • John

    jeff-c has been wrong a few times. However, some of his predictions are right on the mark and he was the first one to speak out with accurate information. For example two months prior to Canon launching 10D he posted here:

    http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1019&message=4048422

    Nikon F6: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=9737711

    Nikon D50 and D100 replacement. Although the D100 replacement didn’t materialize: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=12436327

    D200 spec’s: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=14809860

    Someone attributed the famous D200 spy photo to him but he never admits or denies it: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=15570415

    The biggest flop for him is the quasi-FF post, although he didn’t say this 1.13x sensor is coming. It seems more of his opinion than a rumor: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=17335390

    Nikon D300, note that the thread titled two DSLR’s coming but he only posted a D200 replacement ad photo. We all know now D3 and D300 were announced together: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1039&message=24110549

    Someone posted a D700 leak, it seems jeff knows about it but he confirmed it in a weird way of posting: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=28325244

    From his posting history at dpreview.com it seems he is getting more cautious when revealing upcoming products, perhaps his identity is known to the parties involved and he is taking different approach without jeopardizing his sources.

    • http://nikonrumors.com/ [NR] admin

      oh, you are much better than me finding stuff in dpreview. I will post this in the main text. Thanks!

  • kfo

    i personally think its great, that the megapixel race is still on. why? because it makes my future D700 cheaper! :)

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