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Thom Hogan said…

Thom Hogan is back from his trip in Alaska. He may not be happy about this, but I will again carefully read every single word in his latest post on his web site:
  • "Meanwhile the A900 becomes the megapixel bargain (at least for a short period of time)" - is there something coming? Maybe Canon? Sony will be glorious only for a short period of time? Good!
  • "In the Micro 4/3 arena, I suspect we'll see a Coolpix APS response in 2009". Good!
  • "In the high megapixel count arena, it appears that Nikon's response is currently targeted for early 2009 (WPPI and PMA), though there's still an outside chance that it could be preannounced/leaked as early as Photokina." He mentioned D3x and D800 as potential successors with the new Sony sensor. Not so good!
  • "I expect that high megapixel camera to be highly modular". Did I hear the word "modular" again? Very good!
Disclaimer: this is Thom Hogan's own opinion - it may or may not be based on actual facts. Use at you own risk.
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  • Blog Admin

    I would not start selling my gear based on Thom’s prediction. Just like the stock market you can never time it right and you will probably loose. Did you see what happened today – and I thought the worst was over…

  • J

    I find the last paragraph most interesting.

    From Thom’s website: “The real question all the camera companies are dealing with is how things will eventually settle out for serious cameras. It’s looking more and more like the low-end (e.g., the consumer-driven volume business) will slide towards all-in-one (video and still) EVIL APS cameras instead of traditional DLSRs. This puts Canon, Panasonic, Sony, and perhaps Samsung in strong positions to win large unit volume shares. Traditionally, Nikon has not done well at true consumer cameras, so it will be a real challenge for them to hold onto the substantive gains they made with the D70/D50/D70s/D80/D40/D40x/D60/D90 progression. For serious still photography it’s looking more and more like the old film market: solid FX DSLRs and MF cameras are the answer. That leaves tweener products like the Canon 50D and the Nikon D90 somewhat endangered long-term, I think. Certainly not this year or next. But long-term those products become either the new “entry level serious” or go away completely.”

    I don’t recall Thom saying so clearly that the high-end DX format is pretty much dead, but that’s what I’m getting from this statement. He makes specific mention of the D90 and 50D, but what about the D200 and D300 users? I guess we’ll have to choose between FX and “low-end” cameras, which makes me wonder what compromises we’ll be expected to make.

  • Henry Nikon Fan

    This has been my greatest fear for the past couple of years. I have invested in several DX lenses, AF 10.5mm DX, AF-S 12-24mm DX, AF-S 17-55mm DX and AF-S 18-200mm DX. This has been a small fortune in glass for my D300.

    If Nikon does not continue the high end DX format cameras, this is not going to be good for me, it will cost me a great deal to convert to FX high quality glass. If this continues to become more obvious, should I convert now to get the best price for my current DX lenses?

    What to do, what to do?

  • Blog Admin

    My philosophy – there will always be something better and more advanced in the near future, you should keep this in mind when you are buying something today. The question is: do you want to enjoy it now or you can wait? Are you happy with your D300? Then don’t worry. I can assure you that no matter what Thom says, you equipment will be obsolete one day. Sooner or later.  Unfortunately.

  • Henry Nikon Fan

    Yes, this is true, but as everyone I want to be able to determine when the best time to change over to maximize my investment. Sort of like the stock market.

    I do hope that it is later rather than sooner.

  • Henry Nikon Fan

    I am very happy with my D300 and will never switch to any other brand unless Nikon goes out of business.

  • Douglas

    *sigh* i break my own silence…

    ok… this is all personal oppinion and speculation (with some information but mostly educated guessing), but honestly i dont think the D200/300 series will ever leave the DX format behind… i do think they will become lesser players in the market but i know FAR too many photographers who have gotten used to and now RELY on the 1.5x crop. there will always be a “semi-pro” DX body to cater to those who shoot Surfing, WildLife, and other long distances who have now been spoiled by the croping.

    now, i do feel also that less and less advances will be made with that format, meaning less higher quality lenses and really high end bodies, so honestly the D300 and most likley its successor in another 2 years will probably be the best/last of a dying breed (much the same way Nikon released the last ditch effort for film in the F6 which was a TERRIBLE replacement for the F5). so get those camera’s while they are still around!

  • Henry Nikon Fan

    You just may be right, there have been no new pro quality DX lenses in quite a while. If Nikon would produce a pro DX lens inbetween those consumers DX lenses it would provide some type of sign.

    I sure hope you are correct that there will be at least one or even two more simi-pro DX bodies over the next few years. I would be very satisfied with this.

  • Anonymous

    You are correct, but it sure would be nice to hit the nail on the head. I waffle on this from time to time, but I always decide to keep what I have, too much work to switch and too much money.

  • Ole

    I’m just fanning the rumor flames even more here, but see what Thom also said: “I’ve now noted seven different larger-than-APS prototypes they’ve tested (including what became the D3), so Nikon has been busy trying a lot of different options.”

    “larger-than-APS” he didn’t say FX specifically, is that a hint to a different format? Otaji?

  • alex

    i hope you all realized by now that Hogan is attracting website traffic with each of his article.

    the fact that he thinks 50d and d90 are “in danger” is the most funny thing i’ve heard this month.

    let hogan alone, he doesn’t have any more inside information than you.

    i really suggest people start thinking with their own brains instead of helping hogan earn lots of traffic money.

  • alex

    here are some mistakes from the post:
    1 – ” Nikon has not done well at true consumer cameras” – oh but they did.the best seeling cameras are exactly from the d40 up to d80. that’s why in 2007 in japan nikon gained 43% of the market, over 3% more than canon. it wasn’t the d300/d3 sales, but the d40x and d80 sales.

    2 – “I do think it curious that Nikon didn’t make an immediate response, though.” – nikon doesn’t need a response now, canon is responding. canon still has to make an all purpose dslr (best sensor, best at… best anything). they are still making cameras with either big sensors and very bad AF systems or small sensors and good AF.

    3 – “I should point out that nothing precludes Nikon from backfilling a D800 (24mp Sony sensor in D700 body) or a D3x (same sensor in a D3 body)” – yeah i’m sure nikon sleeps all day long and when sony makes a sensor they hurry to put one of them in a nikon camera as well.

  • dan

    Maybe with 1 he means the coolpix line which is not so great. many other lines like Canon do better.

    2 Agree

    3 maybe they have been waiting for lat sensor, there’s nothing wrong with that.

    I think Thom makes careful ideas about what he writes and is critical about what he thinks should be done. He has no love for the coolpix line.

    In reading his stuff you should see he does seem to have an in with Nikon as a pro and as a known reviewer. His past articles give that impression. Also if you read the site you will find that he makes some very boring posts at times too just updating people on new tools. So he is hardly looking for page hits with each post.

  • alex

    what coolpix? read his site

    “Nikon has not done well at true consumer cameras, so it will be a real challenge for them to hold onto the substantive gains they made with the D70/D50/D70s/D80/D40/D40x/D60/D90 progression.”

    he is talking about dslrs not p&s.
    + everyone knows coolpix are not competitive cameras. and everyone knows thom just wants a 24mp camera for his not-so-good landscapes, he can’t shoot better without 24mp.

    he loves traffic. he makes “predictions” and starts rumors and is often seen on dpreview forums talking about nothing, just chatting.

    it’s fine if you like what he says but i’m bored with the “thom said…” thing everywhere. the next ken rockwell.

  • Pablov

    Am I wrong ?

    Nobody earn money when somebody just visits his/her page. In fact the owner has to pay bandwidth

    (unless the visitor clicks on a link that has already been included as an advertisement, thus it might give the website’s admin some cash)

  • Blog Admin

    you are 100% correct – I had to triple the bandwidth of NikonRumors and trust me I did not triple the ad revenue

  • Blog Admin

    I’ve said it before and I will say it again: if I find Nikon rumors/speculations, I will post them – no matter if they are from Ken Rockwell or Thom Hogan. I don’t care about their traffic.

    Just for the record: Thom Hogan was correct about the Nikon D90 and all the information we were getting was matching his statements.
  • Smithers

    If I have to unload my DX gear for either FX or a rangefinder/EVIL-APS kit, I’ll go for the latter since it will definitely be much much smaller and more portable, just so long as they make some decent quality telephoto glass to go with it.

  • 3182

    You said, “honestly i dont think the D200/300 series will ever leave the DX format behind…” then later you said, “so honestly the D300 and most likley its successor in another 2 years will probably be the best/last of a dying breed.”

    Which do you believe? The D300 series can’t simultaneously die and never be left behind.

  • MarkDphotoguy

    Thom is a Nikon watcher. He watches the moves Nikon makes and makes predictions on rumblings within his sphere of contacts inside and outside of Nikon and the photo community at large.
    I welcome his speculation as it often reinforces what I think Nikons next move is going to be or makes me pause for thought and rethink the way I see things.
    As for DX it is not going away anytime soon. Will there be a D300 and D90 replacements that are also DX, absolutely. The time it will take FX to come down in price means we will see at least one more cycle of the serious hobbyist level of DX cameras and most likely a second cycle on the D90 type after that. It is very true that no one knows what will happen after the D300 replacement is replaced around 3 1/2 years from now.
    Will DX die? Will we miss it? Yes on both counts. Will it matter, I’m not sure. Most serious hobbyists (majority of my regular customers btw) would welcome a 1800.00 FX body even if it means changing out their lenses for FX.
    I took a loss on my 17-55 but do I regret moving to the 24-70, not at all.
    Anyone with a 10.5 f/2.8 could get a sweet deal by trading in on a used 16mm f/2.8.
    18-200 get replaced for a song with a Tamron 28-300 XR (optically about the same).
    12-24 can be replaced with a used 17-35 f/2.8 for a reasonable difference.
    When the time comes for a serious hobbyist to make the choice of sticking with their current (or future) DX body of moving to FX as that is the only choice available then stick with your current camera. Staying cutting edge is always going to be an expensive proposition and technology marches forward.
    For the D300 owners out there use the camera, enjoy and stop worrying. Worry 2 1/2 years from now.

  • MarkDphotoguy

    I’ve used the F5 extensively and owned the F6. The F6 had better metering/flash metering, ergonomics, viewfinder, weather sealing and was more durable. The only complaints I’ve heard from people are those that wanted interchangeable finders (I’ve sold cameras for 7 years now and I’ve sold 1 finder for an F5). Allot of “pros” also complained about the grip not being integral with the camera but in my experience this was not an issue and the real pros who I’ve sold the camera to liked it just fine in fact more than the F5’s they replaced it with.
    The F6 is the finest film camera ever produced and I can’t abide anyone saying it was last ditch or terrible. Those who know really know cameras know the score.
    Sorry to rant, I just love that camera so much. It was a very sad day when I gave it up to go digital, just couldn’t compete with the other photogs shooting digital and I couldn’t afford the move unless I gave her up. Sad sad day **sniff**.

  • john

    What is wrong with the F6????

  • Henry Nikon Fan

    If the next generation of D300 is 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 years from now I would be OK with that. I just would not want the semi-pro DX camera to end with the D300 or end with the next generation coming in about a year or so and then ending.

    I guess I want my cake and I want to eat it too. I want the maximum amount of time usage with my DX lenese and I want to be able to sell them for the maximum to upgrade to the newer pro “N” lenses.

    I am probably dreaming, but why not?

  • Jon Paul

    I’ve got a D300, too, and I absolutely love it. I agree with Thom, but I don’t think DX is dead. It seems to me like there will be an even bigger market for DX lenses with the D90/D60 etc. if you ever decide to go with a D700 or its successors and have to swap out your lenses. For me, the D300 is plenty of camera and the upgrade isn’t worth the money. I figure that if a medium format camera comes out, the pictures my camera takes won’t be any worse for it.

  • Jon Paul

    Sorry, I just reread this and meant to say I usually agree with Thom.

  • dan

    He mentions often how the coolpix line is not so good:

    Any Coolpix: Look elsewhere, nothing to see here

    That is what I often think of when I hear the phrase “consumer camera”

    You say everyone knows he wants more MP to take pics, I didnt know that. i hate being out of the loop.

    For someone bored you seem very excited to talk about him. If I am bored with someone I do something else but that might just be me.

  • MarkDphotoguy

    Nikon is on a two year turnaround on their DSLR’s. You can almost set your watch to it.
    There will be a successor to the D300 you can put money on that after that though the question will be wether or not FX has broken the price barrier yet or not.

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